[ { "slug": "industry-layoff-era", "name": "Games companies are still cutting jobs", "stage": "Dominant", "category": "Money & business model", "horizon": "h1", "horizon_group": null, "horizon_line": "The clearest symptom of the pandemic-era model unwinding.", "markets": [ "Global", "US" ], "what_it_is": "No official body counts games layoffs, but two public trackers do: Amir Satvat's and Farhan Noor's. Layoffs dipped in 2025 and rose again in 2026, so the dip was a low point, not an ending. Check the date on any claim that layoffs are slowing before repeating it. For scale, the ESA counts 82,930 people directly employed in US games in 2025. Global estimates vary and cannot be compared across countries.", "why_it_matters": "Games companies hired heavily during the pandemic, then began cutting jobs in 2023 as demand cooled and borrowing got more expensive. The cuts sit behind most of the industry's business, labor and creative stories since, so they are background for almost everything else here.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Data points to slowing layoffs, but doesn't capture true harm to game industry", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/industry-layoffs-are-seemingly-slowing-but-the-damage-has-already-been-done", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "GDC 2026 State of the Game Industry Reveals Impact of Layoffs", "link": "https://gdconf.com/article/gdc-2026-state-of-the-game-industry-reveals-impact-of-layoffs-generative-ai-and-more/", "type": "Data", "format": "" }, { "source": "Amir Satvat: Layoffs in the Gaming Industry in 2026", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/amir-satvat-layoffs-in-the-gaming", "type": "Data", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "Game Developer's business desk, GDC State of the Game Industry (annual), Satvat's layoff tracker, Farhan Noor's videogamelayoffs.com tracker, GamesIndustry.biz", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "Job losses recorded, by year", "series_note": "Recorded job losses peaked at 15,631 in 2024, fell to 9,197 in 2025 and have already passed that in 2026, with 10,318 confirmed by 10 September. The 2026 column is a part-year. The 2022 and 2023 figures are round estimates.", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "No official body counts games layoffs, but two public trackers do: ", { "text": "Amir Satvat's", "href": "https://layoffs.asgc.gg/" }, " and ", { "text": "Farhan Noor's", "href": "https://videogamelayoffs.com/" }, ". Layoffs dipped in 2025 and ", { "text": "rose again in 2026", "href": "https://layoffs.asgc.gg/" }, ", so the dip was a low point, not an ending. Check the date on any claim that layoffs are slowing before repeating it. For scale, the ", { "text": "ESA", "href": "https://www.theesa.com/resources/2026-economic-impact-report/" }, " counts 82,930 people directly employed in US games in 2025. Global estimates vary and cannot be compared across countries." ], "series_format": "{n} job losses", "claims": [ { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Layoffs recorded for 2022 on Satvat's tracker. The tracker labels the figure an actual count, but it is round and matches Farhan Noor's estimate for the year, so treat it as an estimate.", "card_text": "8,500", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "ASGC Games Industry Layoffs Tracker", "link": "https://layoffs.asgc.gg/", "source_slug": "asgc-games-industry-layoffs-tracker" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Layoffs recorded for 2023 on Satvat's tracker. Like 2022, the figure is round and matches Farhan Noor's estimate for the year, so treat it as an estimate.", "card_text": "10,500", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "ASGC Games Industry Layoffs Tracker", "link": "https://layoffs.asgc.gg/", "source_slug": "asgc-games-industry-layoffs-tracker" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Layoffs recorded for 2024, Satvat's tracker, the peak year.", "card_text": "15,631", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "ASGC Games Industry Layoffs Tracker", "link": "https://layoffs.asgc.gg/", "source_slug": "asgc-games-industry-layoffs-tracker" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Layoffs recorded for 2025, Satvat's tracker.", "card_text": "9,197", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "ASGC Games Industry Layoffs Tracker", "link": "https://layoffs.asgc.gg/", "source_slug": "asgc-games-industry-layoffs-tracker" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Confirmed for 2026 through 10 September, on Satvat's tracker, which projects 13,800 for the full year.", "card_text": "10,318", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "ASGC Games Industry Layoffs Tracker, 10 September 2026 update", "link": "https://layoffs.asgc.gg/", "source_slug": "asgc-games-industry-layoffs-tracker", "partial": true }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Epic Games laid off around 900 people, 16% of its staff, with Tim Sweeney saying the company had been spending way more money than it earned as Fortnite shifted to lower-margin creator content.", "card_text": "Epic cuts 900 as Fortnite's margins thin", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Justin Carter, 28 September 2023", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/epic-games-lays-off-nearly-900-staff", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Microsoft laid off around 1,900 of its 22,000 games staff, just over three months after closing its $68.7 billion merger with Activision Blizzard. Blizzard and Sledgehammer were heavily affected.", "card_text": "Microsoft cuts 1,900 after the Activision deal", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr, 25 January 2024", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/report-microsoft-follows-activision-blizzard-merger-with-1-900-layoffs", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Sony cut about 900 jobs, 8% of PlayStation Studios, closing London Studio outright and reducing Guerrilla, Firesprite, Insomniac and Naughty Dog.", "card_text": "Sony cuts 900 and closes London Studio", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr, 27 February 2024", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/sony-reevaluating-playstation-studios-and-cutting-900-jobs", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "GDC's 2025 State of the Game Industry found 11% of respondents had been laid off in 2024 and 43% worked somewhere with no layoffs at all, down from 53% the year before.", "card_text": "GDC survey: one in ten laid off in 2024", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GDC State of the Game Industry 2025, via GameDev Reports, 28 February 2025", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/gdc-the-state-of-the-game-industry", "source_slug": "gamedev-reports" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Microsoft cut about 9,100 roles across the whole company, 4% of its workforce, and never said how many were in games. Around 200 were at King's Barcelona office. Rare's Everwild and the Perfect Dark reboot were canceled and The Initiative closed.", "card_text": "Microsoft's 9,100 reach Xbox", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr, 2 July 2025", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/report-xbox-begins-latest-round-of-mass-layoffs-with-cuts-at-king-and-zenimax", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "GDC's 2026 survey of over 2,300 developers found 28% had been laid off in the past two years, 33% among those in the United States, and half worked for an employer that had cut in the past 12 months.", "card_text": "GDC survey: one in four laid off in two years", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr, 30 January 2026", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/survey-one-in-four-developers-laid-off-over-the-past-two-years", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Epic Games cut over 1,000 jobs, with Tim Sweeney citing a decline in Fortnite engagement since 2025 and a company spending significantly more than it brings in.", "card_text": "Epic cuts over 1,000", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr, 24 March 2026", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/fortnite-developer-epic-games-is-cutting-1-000-jobs", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Xbox's chief, Asha Sharma, tells staff the division will cut approximately 3,200 roles during its financial year to June 2027, about 1,600 of them that day. It also plans to sell several studios.", "card_text": "Xbox says it will cut 3,200 jobs by mid-2027", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Variety, Jennifer Maas (6 July 2026)", "link": "https://variety.com/2026/gaming/news/xbox-layoffs-3200-4-studios-sold-1236802326/", "source_slug": "variety" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Satvat's tracker eased its 2026 projection to 13,800 from August's 14,666, with 10,318 confirmed through 10 September, already above 2022, 2023 and 2025 with sixteen weeks left.", "card_text": "The 2026 projection eases to 13,800", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "ASGC Games Industry Layoffs Tracker, 10 September 2026 update", "link": "https://layoffs.asgc.gg/", "source_slug": "asgc-games-industry-layoffs-tracker" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Microsoft eliminates 268 more roles on 22 September 2026, across Halo Studios, other first-party studios and the Xbox Game Studios management layer, and says the cuts since July bring it roughly three-quarters of the way through the restructuring it announced. It reorganizes the rest: Activision takes Rare and World's Edge and the next Halo, Bethesda takes Obsidian, King takes Microsoft Casual Games, and Playground and Turn 10 become one studio. Ninja Theory faces a proposed closure after two sale agreements fell through.", "card_text": "Xbox cuts 268 more and folds its studios into four owners", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Xbox Wire, Matt Booty (22 September 2026)", "link": "https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2026/09/22/continuing-our-reset/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The cuts are concentrated. In 2026, the five biggest rounds of layoffs account for about 53% of all jobs lost, and the top two alone for about 42%. North America has 66% of the rounds and about 79% of the people affected.", "card_text": "Five layoff rounds make up half the year's cuts", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "ASGC Games Industry Layoffs Tracker, 10 September 2026 update", "link": "https://layoffs.asgc.gg/", "source_slug": "asgc-games-industry-layoffs-tracker" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "By mid-2025, nearly 40,000 people had lost games jobs across the years tracked. The experience they took with them does not come back, and the people who stay live with the fear of the next round. One ZeniMax worker described those left behind as a gutted crew still expected to ship award-winning games.", "card_text": "Fewer layoffs does not mean recovery", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Nicole Carpenter, 24 July 2025", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/industry-layoffs-are-seemingly-slowing-but-the-damage-has-already-been-done", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Of developers laid off in the past two years, 48% were still job hunting when surveyed. That includes 36% of those cut more than a year earlier. Among students, 74% said they are worried about finding work.", "card_text": "Half of those cut are still looking", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr, 30 January 2026", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/survey-one-in-four-developers-laid-off-over-the-past-two-years", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "For 2025, Noor's tracker counts 5,300 layoffs and Satvat's counts 9,197. For 2026, Noor has 4,600 as of July 1, and Satvat has 10,318 as of September. Noor's 2025 page was last updated on November 30, 2025, so part of the gap comes from one tracker lagging behind, not from a real disagreement.", "card_text": "The two trackers are thousands apart", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Game Industry Layoffs (Farhan Noor)", "link": "https://videogamelayoffs.com/", "source_slug": "game-industry-layoffs" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Satvat's tracker, the source of the main count, says the pace is easing. Its September 2026 update lowered its full-year projection by 5.9% and its forecast for the rest of the year by 23%. And 2025 was already a third lower than 2024.", "card_text": "The main tracker says layoffs are slowing", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "ASGC Games Industry Layoffs Tracker, 10 September 2026 update", "link": "https://layoffs.asgc.gg/", "source_slug": "asgc-games-industry-layoffs-tracker" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "GDC's yearly survey numbers cannot be read as a trend, because each year asked something different. In 2024, 35% said a colleague or acquaintance had been laid off. In 2025, 11% said they had been laid off that year. In 2026, 28% said they had been laid off in the past two years.", "card_text": "The three surveys asked three different questions", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GDC State of the Game Industry", "link": "https://gdconf.com/article/gdc-2026-state-of-the-game-industry-reveals-impact-of-layoffs-generative-ai-and-more/", "source_slug": "gdc-state-of-the-game-industry" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Satvat's monthly forecast update. Xbox made about 1,600 of its 3,200 planned cuts in July 2026 and 268 more in September, and says it is roughly three-quarters through. It has until June 2027 to finish. The tracker counts the remainder in 2026 and says it will revise if the cuts slip into 2027, and the Arkane consultation is scheduled to run to the end of the year.", "card_text": "Whether Xbox's last quarter of cuts lands in 2026", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Xbox Wire, Matt Booty (22 September 2026)", "link": "https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2026/09/22/continuing-our-reset/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The next GDC State of the Game Industry, due around the turn of the year, is the first survey taken after a second year above 10,000 confirmed cuts.", "card_text": "GDC's next survey", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "GDC State of the Game Industry", "link": "https://gdconf.com/article/gdc-2026-state-of-the-game-industry-reveals-impact-of-layoffs-generative-ai-and-more/", "source_slug": "gdc-state-of-the-game-industry" } ] }, { "slug": "monetization-on-flat-player-base", "name": "Rich markets are losing players, and growth has moved elsewhere", "stage": "Dominant", "category": "Money & business model", "horizon": "h1", "horizon_group": null, "horizon_line": "The Western growth engine this system was built on has stalled.", "markets": [ "CA", "CN", "DE", "FR", "Global", "IN", "IT", "JP", "KR", "UK", "US" ], "what_it_is": "Matthew Ball, then an outside analyst and since May 2026 an Xbox executive, argues the industry's growth engines are spent. Worldwide revenue is at a record, but the share of people who play is shrinking across most of the developed world, and the eight rich markets spent less in 2025 than in 2021. Publishers there are trying to earn more from the players who remain. In the US, the largest market, spending fell sharply in mid-2026, worst for console hardware even as console prices rose. The job cuts that came with this are on the layoffs page.", "why_it_matters": "The games industry posts record revenue while studios lay off staff. The facts fit together. In most rich countries fewer people play and spending is below its 2021 peak. The record comes from China and the rest of the world.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (Matthew Ball / Epyllion)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "type": "Research", "format": "" }, { "source": "Roblox chose retention over short-term spend", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/games/roblox-shares-plummet-by-70-percent-after-the-company-reports-persistent-decline-in-player-numbers-and-of-course-the-solution-involves-ai/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "What is a monetization scheme you actually support?", "link": "https://www.reddit.com/r/pcgaming/comments/1vqka44/what_is_a_monetization_scheme_you_actually_support/", "type": "Community", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "Matthew Ball / Epyllion annual State of Video Gaming, The Game Business (Christopher Dring), Circana (Mat Piscatella), Newzoo", "status_label": "Share who play", "measure_label": "What was measured", "row_label": "", "series_label": "What players spend on games, by region, 2021 = 100", "series_note": "Since the 2021 peak, spending in the eight rich markets is down 4.5%. China is up 7.3%, and the rest of the world is up 41%.", "series_type": "line-index-2021", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ { "text": "Matthew Ball", "href": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026" }, ", then an outside analyst and since May 2026 an Xbox executive, argues the industry's growth engines are spent. Worldwide revenue is at a record, but the share of people who play is shrinking across most of the developed world, and the eight rich markets spent less in 2025 than in 2021. Publishers there are trying to earn more from the players who remain. In the US, the largest market, spending fell sharply in mid-2026, worst for console hardware even as console prices rose. The job cuts that came with this are on the ", { "text": "layoffs page", "href": "/trend/industry-layoff-era" }, "." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent on games in 2019 in the eight rich markets Ball tracks: the US, Japan, South Korea, Germany, the UK, France, Canada and Italy, in billions of dollars. It covers games, in-game purchases and subscriptions on every platform, and leaves out hardware.", "card_text": "85", "year": "2019", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays", "series": "Eight rich markets" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent on games in 2020 in the eight rich markets Ball tracks: the US, Japan, South Korea, Germany, the UK, France, Canada and Italy, in billions of dollars. It covers games, in-game purchases and subscriptions on every platform, and leaves out hardware.", "card_text": "105", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays", "series": "Eight rich markets" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent on games in 2021 in the eight rich markets Ball tracks: the US, Japan, South Korea, Germany, the UK, France, Canada and Italy, in billions of dollars. It covers games, in-game purchases and subscriptions on every platform, and leaves out hardware.", "card_text": "112", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays", "series": "Eight rich markets" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent on games in 2022 in the eight rich markets Ball tracks: the US, Japan, South Korea, Germany, the UK, France, Canada and Italy, in billions of dollars. It covers games, in-game purchases and subscriptions on every platform, and leaves out hardware.", "card_text": "102", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays", "series": "Eight rich markets" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent on games in 2023 in the eight rich markets Ball tracks: the US, Japan, South Korea, Germany, the UK, France, Canada and Italy, in billions of dollars. It covers games, in-game purchases and subscriptions on every platform, and leaves out hardware.", "card_text": "104", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays", "series": "Eight rich markets" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent on games in 2024 in the eight rich markets Ball tracks: the US, Japan, South Korea, Germany, the UK, France, Canada and Italy, in billions of dollars. It covers games, in-game purchases and subscriptions on every platform, and leaves out hardware.", "card_text": "105", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays", "series": "Eight rich markets" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent on games in 2025 in the eight rich markets Ball tracks: the US, Japan, South Korea, Germany, the UK, France, Canada and Italy, in billions of dollars. It covers games, in-game purchases and subscriptions on every platform, and leaves out hardware. A preliminary figure.", "card_text": "107", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays", "series": "Eight rich markets" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent on games in 2019 in China, in billions of dollars. It covers games, in-game purchases and subscriptions on every platform, and leaves out hardware.", "card_text": "32", "year": "2019", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays", "series": "China" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent on games in 2020 in China, in billions of dollars. It covers games, in-game purchases and subscriptions on every platform, and leaves out hardware.", "card_text": "39", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays", "series": "China" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent on games in 2021 in China, in billions of dollars. It covers games, in-game purchases and subscriptions on every platform, and leaves out hardware.", "card_text": "45", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays", "series": "China" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent on games in 2022 in China, in billions of dollars. It covers games, in-game purchases and subscriptions on every platform, and leaves out hardware.", "card_text": "39", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays", "series": "China" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent on games in 2023 in China, in billions of dollars. It covers games, in-game purchases and subscriptions on every platform, and leaves out hardware.", "card_text": "42", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays", "series": "China" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent on games in 2024 in China, in billions of dollars. It covers games, in-game purchases and subscriptions on every platform, and leaves out hardware.", "card_text": "45", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays", "series": "China" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent on games in 2025 in China, in billions of dollars. It covers games, in-game purchases and subscriptions on every platform, and leaves out hardware. A preliminary figure.", "card_text": "48", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays", "series": "China" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent on games in 2019 in every other country, in billions of dollars. It covers games, in-game purchases and subscriptions on every platform, and leaves out hardware.", "card_text": "22", "year": "2019", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays", "series": "Rest of the world" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent on games in 2020 in every other country, in billions of dollars. It covers games, in-game purchases and subscriptions on every platform, and leaves out hardware.", "card_text": "27", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays", "series": "Rest of the world" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent on games in 2021 in every other country, in billions of dollars. It covers games, in-game purchases and subscriptions on every platform, and leaves out hardware.", "card_text": "28", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays", "series": "Rest of the world" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent on games in 2022 in every other country, in billions of dollars. It covers games, in-game purchases and subscriptions on every platform, and leaves out hardware.", "card_text": "29", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays", "series": "Rest of the world" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent on games in 2023 in every other country, in billions of dollars. It covers games, in-game purchases and subscriptions on every platform, and leaves out hardware.", "card_text": "31", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays", "series": "Rest of the world" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent on games in 2024 in every other country, in billions of dollars. It covers games, in-game purchases and subscriptions on every platform, and leaves out hardware.", "card_text": "36", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays", "series": "Rest of the world" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent on games in 2025 in every other country, in billions of dollars. It covers games, in-game purchases and subscriptions on every platform, and leaves out hardware. A preliminary figure.", "card_text": "40", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays", "series": "Rest of the world" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Share of people aged 5 and up who play, since before the pandemic. Three separate surveys agree: Circana, the Entertainment Software Association, and Ampere.", "card_text": "Down 2.5 to 4 points", "year": "2025", "market": "US", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Adult players lost between 2018 and 2022, despite lockdowns, per the Canadian trade association's most recent report. Canada is polled irregularly.", "card_text": "Down about a sixth", "year": "2022", "market": "CA", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Share of people aged 10 to 64 who play, against the 2017 to 2019 average, from the government's content agency KOCCA. That is 22 points below the pandemic high.", "card_text": "Down 15 points", "year": "2025", "market": "KR", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Share of people aged 6 to 64 who play regularly, since 2019, from the trade association IIDEA. Mobile is up a point, console down a point, PC down 6.5.", "card_text": "Down more than 5 points", "year": "2024", "market": "IT", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Share of people aged 16 and up who play, from media regulator Ofcom. It jumped 21 points in 2020, and a third of that has gone in the four years since, with every platform down.", "card_text": "A third of 2020's gain lost", "year": "2024", "market": "UK", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Share of people aged 10 to 80 who play, from the trade association SELL. Level since 2016, though each platform on its own has shrunk.", "card_text": "Flat at about 52.5%", "year": "2025", "market": "FR", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Four more players per hundred people aged 6 to 69 between 2016 and 2024, from the trade association game. One of the few markets going up.", "card_text": "Up 4 points", "year": "2024", "market": "DE", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Share of people aged 5 to 59 who play since 2019, from Kadokawa. The outlier among the eight, though Japan's population is shrinking, so it is only about 6 million new players.", "card_text": "Up 11 points", "year": "2024", "market": "JP", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The pandemic peak. Circana's Mat Piscatella notes that total spending, total players, and total hours played in the US all peaked in 2021. Everything on this page is measured against that high.", "card_text": "US players, hours and spending peak", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "PlayStation Universe, Michael Harradence, on Mat Piscatella's Circana figures (26 February 2025)", "link": "https://www.psu.com/news/live-service-games-made-up-over-40-of-total-play-time-on-ps5-xbox-series-x-s-in-us-last-month/", "source_slug": "mat-piscatella" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Worldwide spending on games grows 5.3% to a record of about $195.2 billion, roughly $9.7 billion above the previous high in 2021. The figure covers console, PC, and mobile, and leaves out hardware.", "card_text": "Spending hits a record $195 billion", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Ball's country-by-country count: across eight developed countries that account for about 60% of what players spend worldwide, games have been losing ground for six years. The share of people who play has fallen in the US, Canada, South Korea, Italy, and the UK. It is flat in France and up only in Germany and Japan.", "card_text": "Fewer people play in most big markets", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Where the record came from. Since 2021, spending in the eight rich markets has shrunk by $5.1 billion, or 4.5%. China is up $3.3 billion, or 7.3%, and every other country together is up $11.8 billion, or 41%. The worldwide record was set outside the markets where fewer people play.", "card_text": "The growth since 2021 came from outside the rich markets", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "In the US, spending on PC and console games is down 8%, or $2.3 billion, from its 2020 to 2021 level. Mobile spending is up 12% since 2020 but went flat in 2025. Mobile game installs are at a 12-year low, hours played on mobile have dropped, and time spent watching game streams has stopped growing.", "card_text": "US installs hit a 12-year low", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Console spending reaches a record $41.6 billion, 2.3% above its 2020 high. But more than all of that growth went to platform services such as subscriptions. Spending on the games themselves, and on purchases inside them, is down nearly $3.7 billion a year, or 11%.", "card_text": "Console growth goes to subscriptions", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Xbox names the analyst Matthew Ball, whose report this page draws on, as its chief strategy officer on 20 May 2026. The report was published in February 2026 and last updated on 15 May, while he was still an outside analyst. From this point his public comments are an Xbox executive's.", "card_text": "Xbox hires Matthew Ball as chief strategy officer", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Kotaku, Ethan Gach (20 May 2026)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/xbox-taps-everyones-favorite-game-industry-chart-guy-to-lead-strategy-and-save-its-console-2000697952", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Roblox's share price falls 70% after its second-quarter results. Daily players are down to 123 million from a high of 152 million three quarters earlier, and the company expects the next quarter to fall 14 to 18%.", "card_text": "Roblox loses players and 70% of its value", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PC Gamer, Rick Lane (9 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/games/roblox-shares-plummet-by-70-percent-after-the-company-reports-persistent-decline-in-player-numbers-and-of-course-the-solution-involves-ai/", "source_slug": "pc-gamer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "US spending on games falls 10% in July to $4.5 billion, a total that covers games, hardware, and accessories. Spending on games is down 9%, and hardware is down 29% to $282 million, even as the average price of a new console rises 16% to $542. Through seven months, the US market is 2% behind 2025.", "card_text": "US spending falls 10% in July", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GameDev Reports, on Circana (21 August 2026)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/circana-the-us-video-game-market-609", "source_slug": "gamedev-reports" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Newzoo's forecast for 2026: a $213.9 billion market, up 6.1%, with 3.70 billion players, up 4.4%. About 1.65 billion of them pay, and each paying player spends $129.60 a year on average, up 1.4%. Newzoo counts the whole world, where most new players are, which is how it can forecast growth while the US runs behind. It says keeping and earning from existing players now matters more to revenue than finding new ones.", "card_text": "Newzoo: earning from existing players matters more", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Storyboard18, on Newzoo's Global Games Market Report 2026 (11 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.storyboard18.com/amp/gaming-news/global-games-market-to-hit-2139b-by-2026-growth-slows-ws-l-110433.htm", "source_slug": "newzoo" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "If fewer people play, growth has to come from those who remain. Ball lists the options: raise prices, get players to buy more, sell advertising, or make the game serve another business, such as a subscription. He argues the losses compound. Players who stay tend to play less, a game can only grow by taking players from another game, and new games find it harder to break through.", "card_text": "Growth has to come from the players who are left", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "A player meets it as a subscription on top of the console, ads inside the game, and prompts to buy in-game currency from the publisher's own web shop rather than the app store. Ball names advertising and direct-to-player payment channels among the five biggest areas of revenue growth in 2026. None of them needs a new player. Each needs an existing one to pay again, or to sit through an ad.", "card_text": "What earning more from each player looks like", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "On consoles, the extra money goes to the platform, not to the games. Console spending hit a record in 2025, but more than all the growth since 2020 went to services such as subscriptions, while spending on games and in-game purchases fell 11%. A record year for the console business and a shrinking market for the people who make console games are the same set of numbers.", "card_text": "Record console spending, less of it on games", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "There is a limit to raising prices, and the US may have hit it. In July 2026, the average price of a new console was up 16% while hardware spending was down 29%. Mat Piscatella reads rising console prices as weighing on sales. Charging the same players more only works while they keep paying.", "card_text": "Higher prices are starting to cost sales", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GameDev Reports, on Circana (21 August 2026)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/circana-the-us-video-game-market-609", "source_slug": "gamedev-reports" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The rich markets are not where the record came from. By Ball's own figures, players in the eight rich markets spent $107 billion in 2025, less than the $112 billion of 2021, so since the pandemic peak they are fewer and spending less in total. The squeeze shows against 2019, when the same markets spent $85 billion. Against 2021, the worldwide record is a story about China and everywhere else.", "card_text": "Against 2021, the rich markets are spending less, not more", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Newzoo counts 3.70 billion players in 2026, up 4.4%, with the Middle East and Africa growing fastest at 7.9% and Asia-Pacific the largest region at 1.94 billion. Ball's decline is a finding about eight rich countries. They hold most of the spending, but they are not the whole market.", "card_text": "Worldwide, the number of players is still growing", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Storyboard18, on Newzoo's Global Games Market Report 2026 (11 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.storyboard18.com/amp/gaming-news/global-games-market-to-hit-2139b-by-2026-growth-slows-ws-l-110433.htm", "source_slug": "newzoo" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Ball raises this objection himself: someone who stopped playing altogether probably was not playing or spending much, so it is unclear how much was really lost. His answer is that the losses compound, but he offers that as an argument, not a measurement. His report does not show what the departed players used to spend.", "card_text": "The players who left may not have spent much", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Lumikai, a venture fund that invests in Indian games, counts 555 million gamers in India in 2025, down 9% from 609 million, and 139 million paying, down from 152 million. It reads the fall as the ban on games played for money trimming the base. Lumikai does not define a gamer by age or by period of play.", "card_text": "India counted fewer players in 2025, not more", "year": "2025", "market": "IN", "source": "Lumikai, State of Interactive Media Report 2025 (23 March 2026)", "link": "https://www.lumikai.com/_files/ugd/9e9f8d_a25e836de2b3448081a3ac9e17b9adda.pdf", "source_slug": "lumikai-state-of-india-interactive-media-and-gaming-report" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Circana's full-year US figures, due in January 2027. The market was 2% behind 2025 after seven months. A finish below 2025, in a year with a Grand Theft Auto release, would confirm the turn.", "card_text": "Whether US spending ends 2026 down", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Circana", "link": "https://www.circana.com/industries/video-games", "source_slug": "circana" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Ball's next State of Video Gaming report, due early in 2027. Several national surveys, including Italy's, report during 2026. They will show whether the share of people who play is still falling in the US and South Korea or has found a floor.", "card_text": "Whether the share of people who play finds a floor", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" } ] }, { "slug": "premium-price-ceiling", "name": "Game prices are stalling as hardware prices climb", "stage": "Dominant", "category": "Money & business model", "horizon": "h1", "horizon_group": null, "horizon_line": "The premium console bundle is squeezed from both sides.", "markets": [ "EU", "Global", "IN", "JP", "UK", "US" ], "what_it_is": "Nintendo's Mario Kart World reached $80 in 2025. Microsoft announced $80 games and backed down within three months. Grand Theft Auto 6, due in November 2026, is priced at $79.99, which ended speculation about a $100 game. Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo all raised console prices in 2025 and 2026, blaming memory chip costs, tariffs and the wider economy. Circana calls the US market the most precarious since the early 1980s: through August 2026 Xbox sales fell 33% and PlayStation 25%, at record prices.", "why_it_matters": "The price of a big new game has moved only once, from $70 to $80, and only for a handful of titles. Console prices have kept rising, and Americans are buying fewer consoles. The two prices a player pays have gone separate ways.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Nintendo exec says Mario Kart World justifies its shock $80 price", "link": "https://www.gamesradar.com/games/racing/amid-switch-2-price-backlash-nintendo-exec-says-mario-kart-world-justifies-its-shock-usd80-price-because-its-probably-the-richest-mario-kart-experience-fans-will-have-ever-had/", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "Grand Theft Auto 6's $80 price settles the $100 question", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/console/grand-theft-auto-6-s-80-price-settles-the-100-question", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "How a surge in memory prices will affect the games industry", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/how-a-surge-in-memory-prices-will-affect-the-games-industry", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Oct 2026", "where_to_follow": "GamesRadar and Eurogamer business coverage, Circana US sales data, Ars Technica gaming desk", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "US list prices of two consoles and of the most expensive big new game, 2020 = 100", "series_note": "A PlayStation 5 costs 30% more than it did in 2020 and an Xbox Series X 60% more. The most expensive big game costs 14% more. Console prices held for five years, then rose in 2025 and again in 2026.", "series_type": "line-index-2020", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "Nintendo's Mario Kart World reached $80 in 2025. Microsoft announced $80 games and backed down within three months. Grand Theft Auto 6, due in November 2026, is priced at $79.99, which ended speculation about a $100 game. Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo all raised console prices in 2025 and 2026, blaming memory chip costs, tariffs and the wider economy. ", { "text": "Circana", "href": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/us-console-hardware-market-at-its-most-precarious-position-since-the-80s-says-circana/" }, " calls the US market the most precarious since the early 1980s: through August 2026 Xbox sales fell 33% and PlayStation 25%, at record prices." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Definition", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "A premium game is one you buy once, like a book or a movie, and then play as much as you want without paying again. The alternative is a free-to-play game, which costs nothing to download and makes its money when players buy things inside it. The 'price ceiling' is the most players have shown they are willing to pay up front for a premium game.", "card_text": "What is a premium game?", "year": "", "market": "", "source": "", "link": "", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The PlayStation 5 with a disc drive at its US launch in November 2020: $499.99, as Sony announced it, shown to the nearest dollar.", "card_text": "500", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "US list prices as the companies announced them, or as reported where they did not", "link": "https://blog.playstation.com/2020/09/16/playstation-5-launches-in-november-starting-at-399-for-ps5-digital-edition-and-499-for-ps5-with-ultra-hd-blu-ray-disc-drive/", "source_slug": "", "series": "PlayStation 5" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The PlayStation 5 with a disc drive in the US in November 2021: $499, as Game Rant reported it. The price had not changed since launch.", "card_text": "499", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "US list prices as the companies announced them, or as reported where they did not", "link": "https://gamerant.com/walmart-ps5-restock-november-2021/", "source_slug": "", "series": "PlayStation 5" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The PlayStation 5 in the US at the end of 2022: still $499.99. When Sony raised prices in Europe, Japan and elsewhere in August 2022 it said there would be no increase in the United States.", "card_text": "500", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "US list prices as the companies announced them, or as reported where they did not", "link": "https://blog.playstation.com/2022/08/25/ps5-price-to-increase-in-select-markets-due-to-global-economic-environment-including-high-inflation-rates/", "source_slug": "", "series": "PlayStation 5" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The slimmer PlayStation 5 with a disc drive, on sale in the US from November 2023: $499.99, as Sony announced it.", "card_text": "500", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "US list prices as the companies announced them, or as reported where they did not", "link": "https://blog.playstation.com/2023/10/10/new-look-for-ps5-console-this-holiday-season/", "source_slug": "", "series": "PlayStation 5" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The PlayStation 5 in the US at the end of 2024: $499.99, the old price TechRadar gave when it reported the rise of August 2025. Sale bundles were cheaper.", "card_text": "500", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "US list prices as the companies announced them, or as reported where they did not", "link": "https://www.techradar.com/gaming/ps5/with-crushing-inevitability-the-ps5-is-about-to-get-a-lot-more-expensive", "source_slug": "", "series": "PlayStation 5" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The PlayStation 5 in the US from 21 August 2025: $549.99, as Sony announced it.", "card_text": "550", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "US list prices as the companies announced them, or as reported where they did not", "link": "https://blog.playstation.com/2025/08/20/playstation-5-price-changes-in-the-u-s/", "source_slug": "", "series": "PlayStation 5" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The PlayStation 5 in the US from 2 April 2026, and still in September 2026: $649.99, as Sony announced it.", "card_text": "650", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "US list prices as the companies announced them, or as reported where they did not", "link": "https://blog.playstation.com/2026/03/27/new-price-changes-for-ps5-ps5-pro-and-playstation-portal-remote-player/", "source_slug": "", "series": "PlayStation 5" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The Xbox Series X at its US launch in November 2020: $499, as Microsoft announced it.", "card_text": "499", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "US list prices as the companies announced them, or as reported where they did not", "link": "https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2020/09/09/xbox-series-x-and-xbox-series-s-launching-november-10/", "source_slug": "", "series": "Xbox Series X" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The Xbox Series X in the US in 2021. No dated source from that year was found. Game Developer reported in June 2023 that the console had kept its launch price of $500.", "card_text": "500", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "US list prices as the companies announced them, or as reported where they did not", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/xbox-series-x-and-game-pass-prices-will-increase-in-july", "source_slug": "", "series": "Xbox Series X" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The Xbox Series X in the US in August 2022: $499, in the statement Microsoft gave after Sony's rises abroad, as MobileSyrup relayed it.", "card_text": "499", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "US list prices as the companies announced them, or as reported where they did not", "link": "https://mobilesyrup.com/2022/08/25/microsoft-xbox-series-x-s-price-unchanged-amid-ps5-hike/", "source_slug": "", "series": "Xbox Series X" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The Xbox Series X in the US in 2023: its launch price of $500, as Game Developer reported when Microsoft raised prices in Europe, Canada and Australia.", "card_text": "500", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "US list prices as the companies announced them, or as reported where they did not", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/xbox-series-x-and-game-pass-prices-will-increase-in-july", "source_slug": "", "series": "Xbox Series X" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The Xbox Series X with 1TB of storage in the US in November 2024: $499.99, on Microsoft's own list of its consoles.", "card_text": "500", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "US list prices as the companies announced them, or as reported where they did not", "link": "https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2024/11/15/xbox-series-xs-every-console-option-available-now/", "source_slug": "", "series": "Xbox Series X" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The Xbox Series X in the US from 3 October 2025: $649.99, after two rises that year, as reported from Microsoft's support pages.", "card_text": "650", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "US list prices as the companies announced them, or as reported where they did not", "link": "https://www.purexbox.com/news/2025/09/microsoft-announces-new-price-increases-for-xbox-series-xs-in-the-us", "source_slug": "", "series": "Xbox Series X" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The Xbox Series X in the US from 1 August 2026: $799.99, as Windows Central's price tracker prints it. Microsoft announced a rise of $150 on its 1TB consoles and did not print the new price itself.", "card_text": "800", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "US list prices as the companies announced them, or as reported where they did not", "link": "https://www.windowscentral.com/gaming/xbox/xbox-series-x-s-prices-tracker-august-2026", "source_slug": "", "series": "Xbox Series X" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The top US list price of a new PlayStation 5 game from Sony's own studios in 2020: $69.99. Sony gave the range as $49.99 to $69.99.", "card_text": "70", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "US list prices as the companies announced them, or as reported where they did not", "link": "https://blog.playstation.com/2020/09/16/playstation-5-launches-in-november-starting-at-399-for-ps5-digital-edition-and-499-for-ps5-with-ultra-hd-blu-ray-disc-drive/", "source_slug": "", "series": "The most expensive big new game" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Ratchet and Clank: Rift Apart, a big release of 2021: $69.99 for the standard edition, as Sony announced it. The game series on this chart is one stated example a year, not proof that nothing cost more.", "card_text": "70", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "US list prices as the companies announced them, or as reported where they did not", "link": "https://blog.playstation.com/2021/02/11/ratchet-clank-rift-apart-arrives-on-ps5-june-11/", "source_slug": "", "series": "The most expensive big new game" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The Last of Us Part I, a big release of 2022: $69.99 for the standard edition, as Sony announced it.", "card_text": "70", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "US list prices as the companies announced them, or as reported where they did not", "link": "https://blog.playstation.com/2022/06/09/the-growing-future-of-the-last-of-us/", "source_slug": "", "series": "The most expensive big new game" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Marvel's Spider-Man 2, a big release of 2023: $69.99 for the standard edition, as Sony announced it.", "card_text": "70", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "US list prices as the companies announced them, or as reported where they did not", "link": "https://blog.playstation.com/2023/06/08/marvels-spider-man-2-arrives-only-on-ps5-october-20-collectors-digital-deluxe-editions-detailed/", "source_slug": "", "series": "The most expensive big new game" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Call of Duty: Black Ops 6, a big release of 2024: $69.99 for the standard edition, as Activision announced it.", "card_text": "70", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "US list prices as the companies announced them, or as reported where they did not", "link": "https://www.callofduty.com/blog/2024/06/call-of-duty-black-ops-6-pre-order-benefits-game-editions", "source_slug": "", "series": "The most expensive big new game" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Mario Kart World, the most expensive standard edition of a big game in 2025: $79.99, as Nintendo of America stated it. Most big games stayed at $69.99.", "card_text": "80", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "US list prices as the companies announced them, or as reported where they did not", "link": "https://www.nintendo.com/us/whatsnew/nintendo-maintains-nintendo-switch-2-pricing-retail-pre-orders-to-begin-april-24-in-u-s/", "source_slug": "", "series": "The most expensive big new game" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Grand Theft Auto 6's standard edition: $79.99, as Take-Two announced it in June 2026. The game is due on 19 November 2026.", "card_text": "80", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "US list prices as the companies announced them, or as reported where they did not", "link": "https://www.take2games.com/ir/news/rockstar-games-announces-pre-orders-grand-theft-auto-vi", "source_slug": "", "series": "The most expensive big new game" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Sony prices the PlayStation 5 at $499.99 and its own new games at up to $69.99. Microsoft prices the Xbox Series X at $499.", "card_text": "A new console costs $499 and a big new game costs up to $70", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "PlayStation Blog, Jim Ryan (16 September 2020)", "link": "https://blog.playstation.com/2020/09/16/playstation-5-launches-in-november-starting-at-399-for-ps5-digital-edition-and-499-for-ps5-with-ultra-hd-blu-ray-disc-drive/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Nintendo announces the Switch 2 at $450 and its launch game Mario Kart World at $80, with Donkey Kong Bananza at $70. Nintendo of America's Bill Trinen defends the price, and its president Doug Bowser calls the approach variable pricing.", "card_text": "Nintendo prices Mario Kart World at $80", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GamesRadar+, Catherine Lewis (7 April 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamesradar.com/games/racing/amid-switch-2-price-backlash-nintendo-exec-says-mario-kart-world-justifies-its-shock-usd80-price-because-its-probably-the-richest-mario-kart-experience-fans-will-have-ever-had/", "source_slug": "gamesradar" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Microsoft raises the Xbox Series X from $499.99 to $599.99 and says some of its own games will cost $79.99 from the end-of-year holiday season.", "card_text": "Microsoft raises the Xbox by $100 and says its games will go to $80", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Game Informer, Marcus Stewart (1 May 2025)", "link": "https://gameinformer.com/2025/05/01/xbox-console-and-accessory-price-increases-begin-today-80-first-party-games-starting", "source_slug": "game-informer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Microsoft cuts The Outer Worlds 2 from $80 to $70 before release and says its full-priced holiday games will stay at $70, in line with current market conditions.", "card_text": "Microsoft backs down on $80 games", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "PC Gamer, Tyler Wilde (23 July 2025)", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/games/rpg/the-outer-worlds-2-will-no-longer-cost-usd80-as-microsoft-backs-away-from-plans-to-follow-nintendos-lead", "source_slug": "pc-gamer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Sony raises US PlayStation 5 prices from 21 August, citing a challenging economic environment. Microsoft follows on 3 October with its second rise of the year, taking the Series X to $649.99.", "card_text": "Sony raises the PlayStation 5 to $549.99", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "PlayStation Blog, Isabelle Tomatis (20 August 2025)", "link": "https://blog.playstation.com/2025/08/20/playstation-5-price-changes-in-the-u-s/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Circana counts 1.6 million consoles sold in the US in November, the fewest for a November since 1995. The average price paid for one is $439, the highest for any November. In November 2019 it was $235.", "card_text": "US console sales have their worst November since 1995", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Chronicle, Chris Scullion, on Circana (17 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/hardware-sales-and-physical-game-spending-in-the-us-just-had-the-worst-november-in-30-years/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "From 2 April the US PlayStation 5 costs $649.99 and the PlayStation 5 Pro $899.99, with rises in the UK, Europe and Japan too. Sony cites continued pressures in the global economy.", "card_text": "Sony raises the PlayStation 5 again, to $649.99", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PlayStation Blog, Isabelle Tomatis (27 March 2026)", "link": "https://blog.playstation.com/2026/03/27/new-price-changes-for-ps5-ps5-pro-and-playstation-portal-remote-player/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Nintendo announces rises with its annual results. In Japan the Switch 2 goes from 49,980 yen to 59,980 yen on 25 May. On 1 September it goes from $449.99 to $499.99 in the US, with similar rises in Canada and Europe. Nintendo expects parts and tariffs to cost it about 100 billion yen in the year to March 2027.", "card_text": "Nintendo raises the Switch 2 in every major market", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Nintendo (8 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.nintendo.co.jp/corporate/release/en/2026/260508.html", "source_slug": "nintendo-ir" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Rockstar prices the standard edition of Grand Theft Auto 6 at $79.99, with an Ultimate Edition at $99.99, for release on 19 November. There had been months of speculation that it would be the first $100 game.", "card_text": "Grand Theft Auto 6 is priced at $79.99", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Nicole Carpenter (24 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/console/grand-theft-auto-6-s-80-price-settles-the-100-question", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "From 1 August, Xbox consoles with 1TB of storage cost $150 more and those with 512GB cost $100 more. Microsoft says the memory and storage chips inside them cost more than two and a half times what they did, that it expects their cost to double again by fall 2027, and that it sells consoles for less than they cost to make.", "card_text": "Microsoft raises Xbox prices a third time and says it sells consoles at a loss", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Xbox Wire (25 June 2026)", "link": "https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2026/06/25/xbox-console-price-update/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Circana reports US console unit sales down 39% from a year earlier in July, while the average selling price of a console rises 16% to $542. Its analyst Mat Piscatella ties the fall to the price rises.", "card_text": "US console sales fall 39% in July", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Circana, Mat Piscatella, as reported by Kotaku (20 August 2026)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/worst-july-console-sales-2020-pandemic-2026-2000726139", "source_slug": "circana" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Sony raises the disc PlayStation 5 in India from 54,990 to 69,990 rupees on 30 July 2026, citing the global memory shortage.", "card_text": "Sony raises the PlayStation 5 in India by 15,000 rupees", "year": "2026", "market": "IN", "source": "TelecomTalk, Tanay Singh Thakur (30 July 2026)", "link": "https://telecomtalk.info/ps5-price-in-india-goes-up/1010222/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Mat Piscatella of Circana says console makers likely cannot and will not cut hardware prices. He warns that further sharp rises could be catastrophic for dedicated games machines.", "card_text": "Console makers cannot cut prices, and further rises could be 'catastrophic'", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Chronicle, Chris Scullion, on Circana (17 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/hardware-sales-and-physical-game-spending-in-the-us-just-had-the-worst-november-in-30-years/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "James McWhirter of Omdia notes that games and services are about 70% of the console business and hardware 30%, so Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo can recover some of the cost of memory through subscriptions, games and accessories. Memory is at least 20% of what it costs to build a PlayStation 5.", "card_text": "Console makers can spread the cost", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, James McWhirter of Omdia (23 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/how-a-surge-in-memory-prices-will-affect-the-games-industry", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Omar Dessouky of Bank of America Securities, as relayed by PC Gamer, argued that had Take-Two not raised the price of Grand Theft Auto 6, the industry would probably have been stuck at $70 for years.", "card_text": "Without Grand Theft Auto, $70 would have stuck", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PC Gamer, Andy Chalk (7 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/games/grand-theft-auto/even-with-an-usd80-price-tag-grand-theft-auto-6-will-be-an-incredible-bargain-take-two-boss-says/", "source_slug": "pc-gamer" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Harvey Randall of PC Gamer argues that the $80 price is not the whole story. Take-Two's chief executive says pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto 6 are skewing toward the $99.99 edition, so many buyers will pay $100 anyway.", "card_text": "Pricier editions get around the ceiling", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PC Gamer, Harvey Randall (11 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/games/grand-theft-auto/gta-6-might-not-technically-be-usd100-but-its-had-its-cake-and-ate-it-too-as-pre-orders-are-skewing-more-to-the-premium-edition/", "source_slug": "pc-gamer" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Strauss Zelnick runs Take-Two, which owns Rockstar and set the price of Grand Theft Auto 6, so he has a stake in the argument. He says the real cost of a big game is a whole lot lower than it was 20 years ago, because prices have not kept pace with inflation. On that view the ceiling has not held. It has been falling.", "card_text": "Adjusted for inflation, games have been getting cheaper", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PC Gamer, Andy Chalk (7 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/games/grand-theft-auto/even-with-an-usd80-price-tag-grand-theft-auto-6-will-be-an-incredible-bargain-take-two-boss-says/", "source_slug": "pc-gamer" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X are more than five years old, an age at which sales normally slow. The Switch 2's fall of 51% in July is measured against the month after its record launch a year earlier.", "card_text": "Price is not the only reason console sales fell", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Tom's Hardware, Luke James (22 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.tomshardware.com/video-games/console-gaming/us-console-sales-fall-39-percent-in-july-as-memory-costs-push-average-price-to-542", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Nintendo calls its approach variable pricing: $80 for one game, $70 for another. Take-Two is keeping NBA 2K27 at $70. The chart uses list prices, which ignore discounts, bundles and subscriptions. Circana publishes the average price paid for a console. Nobody publishes one for a game.", "card_text": "There is no single price, and nobody publishes what buyers pay", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GamesRadar+, Catherine Lewis (7 April 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamesradar.com/games/racing/amid-switch-2-price-backlash-nintendo-exec-says-mario-kart-world-justifies-its-shock-usd80-price-because-its-probably-the-richest-mario-kart-experience-fans-will-have-ever-had/", "source_slug": "gamesradar" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "19 November 2026, when Grand Theft Auto 6 is released at $79.99. The signs are whether other publishers follow to $80, and how many buyers choose the $99.99 edition.", "card_text": "Grand Theft Auto 6 goes on sale", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Nicole Carpenter (24 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/console/grand-theft-auto-6-s-80-price-settles-the-100-question", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Fall 2027, by when Microsoft expects the cost of console memory and storage to have doubled again.", "card_text": "Whether memory costs double again", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Xbox Wire (25 June 2026)", "link": "https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2026/06/25/xbox-console-price-update/", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "live-service-retreat", "name": "Publishers are retreating from live-service games", "stage": "Dominant", "category": "Money & business model", "horizon": "h1", "horizon_group": null, "horizon_line": "The flagship bet of this system, now failing more often than it hits.", "markets": [ "CN", "Global", "KR" ], "what_it_is": "Sony told investors in 2022 it would have twelve live-service games by March 2026. Reporters count eight canceled or withdrawn, a tally Sony has never confirmed. The pullback is wider than Sony. Warner Bros. wrote off $200 million on Suicide Squad, Ubisoft closed XDefiant along with two studios, and EA switched off Anthem. In 2026 a new shooter called Highguard closed after 45 days, and Amazon announced its exit from online role-playing games. None of these companies says it is leaving live service. Newzoo's 2026 market report found most established hits flat or down in the first half of the year, without giving figures.", "why_it_matters": "Live-service games are updated for years and earn money the whole time, like Fortnite. A hit can pay for a decade, so every big publisher wanted one. Many attempts have failed, and the failures decide which studios close and which games never get made.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Sony will continue to develop live services despite failures", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/gaming-industry/sony-games-boss-says-company-will-bravely-keep-sending-live-services-over-the-top-despite-cancelling-8-of-the-12-ones-planned-for-2025-and-wiping-out-most-of-destiny-2s-developers/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "Newzoo: Most established live-service and evergreen titles were flat or down year over year in H1 2026", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/newzoo-most-established-live-service-and-evergreen-titles-were-flat-or-down-year-over-year-in-h1-2026", "type": "Data", "format": "" }, { "source": "Sega cancelled its \"risky\" Super Game project", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/sega-cancelled-its-risky-super-game-project-as-it-would-have-to-grow-enormously-to-match-the-scale-of-the-service", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Oct 2026", "where_to_follow": "Game Developer post-mortems, Circana engagement data, publisher earnings calls (Sony, EA, Take-Two)", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "", "series_note": "", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "Sony told investors in 2022 it would have twelve live-service games by March 2026. Reporters count eight canceled or withdrawn, a tally Sony has never confirmed. The pullback is wider than Sony. Warner Bros. wrote off $200 million on Suicide Squad, Ubisoft closed XDefiant along with two studios, and EA switched off Anthem. In 2026 a new shooter called Highguard closed after 45 days, and Amazon announced its exit from online role-playing games. None of these companies says it is leaving live service. ", { "text": "Newzoo's 2026 market report", "href": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/newzoo-most-established-live-service-and-evergreen-titles-were-flat-or-down-year-over-year-in-h1-2026" }, " found most established hits flat or down in the first half of the year, without giving figures." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Definition", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "A live-service game is not a one-time purchase. It keeps going: the studio keeps adding new content and new things to buy, and money keeps coming in as long as people keep playing. The catch is that the studio has to keep feeding the game for as long as it wants that income.", "card_text": "What is a live-service game?", "year": "", "market": "", "source": "", "link": "", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Jim Ryan, then head of PlayStation, tells investors that Sony plans to have twelve live-service games on sale by the end of its 2025 financial year, which runs to March 2026. It had one at the time. Sony called them games with no end.", "card_text": "Sony tells investors it will have twelve live-service games by March 2026", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Chronicle (26 May 2022)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/jim-ryan-says-playstation-has-2-unannounced-live-service-games-coming-this-fiscal-year/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Sony's president Hiroki Totoki tells investors that only six of the twelve will be out by March 2026, and says the quality of the games matters more than the number.", "card_text": "Sony halves the plan to six", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Justin Carter (9 November 2023)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/sony-pushes-back-half-of-its-planned-live-service-games", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The studio behind The Last of Us stops work on its online spin-off. Finishing and running it, the studio says, would have meant becoming a studio that only makes live-service games, at the expense of its single-player ones.", "card_text": "Naughty Dog cancels its online Last of Us game", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Naughty Dog (14 December 2023)", "link": "https://www.naughtydog.com/blog/an_update_on_the_last_of_us_online", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Warner Bros. Discovery tells investors that its online shooter Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League has cost it $200 million in lost value. Its chief executive calls the release disappointing. A further $100 million follows later in the year on MultiVersus, a free online fighting game.", "card_text": "Warner Bros. writes off $200 million on Suicide Squad", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Game Informer, Wesley LeBlanc (9 May 2024)", "link": "https://gameinformer.com/news/2024/05/09/warner-bros-discovery-boss-calls-suicide-squad-kill-the-justice-leagues-release", "source_slug": "game-informer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Sony takes its new online shooter Concord offline on 6 September 2024, about two weeks after it went on sale, and refunds everyone who bought it.", "card_text": "Sony switches off Concord two weeks after launch", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "PlayStation Blog (3 September 2024)", "link": "https://blog.playstation.com/2024/09/03/an-important-update-on-concord/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Ubisoft announces the end of XDefiant, a free online shooter launched seven months earlier, saying it had not been able to attract and retain enough players. It closes its San Francisco and Osaka studios. The servers go off in June 2025.", "card_text": "Ubisoft closes XDefiant and two studios", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Ubisoft News, Marie-Sophie de Waubert (3 December 2024)", "link": "https://news.ubisoft.com/en-us/article/1EywTnGrZdDqCoxKs2zNhZ/ubisoft-discontinues-development-on-xdefiant", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Sony cancels unannounced live-service games at two more of its studios. Counting by reporters puts seven of the twelve canceled before release, plus Concord, which was released and then withdrawn. Sony never named the twelve, so the count is the press's, not Sony's.", "card_text": "Sony cancels two more, and the press counts eight of the twelve gone", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Push Square (17 January 2025)", "link": "https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2025/01/lists-of-sonyrs-cancelled-live-service-ps5-games-paint-a-worrying-picture", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "In a round of company-wide layoffs, Microsoft cancels an unannounced online role-playing game at ZeniMax Online Studios, in development since 2018. Microsoft never named the game. Staff confirmed the cancellation on LinkedIn.", "card_text": "Microsoft cancels an online world seven years in the making", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "PC Gamer, Andy Chalk (2 July 2025)", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/gaming-industry/a-new-mmo-in-development-at-elder-scrolls-online-studio-zenimax-has-been-cancelled-as-microsoft-puts-thousands-more-people-out-of-work/", "source_slug": "pc-gamer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Newzoo counts annual free-to-play live-service launches on PC and console falling 31% as an annual average, from 21.3 titles a year in 2020 to 2022 to 14.7 a year in 2023 to 2025, against a peak of 36 titles in 2017 and while releases rose across the wider market. It names rising costs, greater risk and entrenched competitive titles as the causes. The count excludes China, India and mobile.", "card_text": "Studios stop starting new free-to-play live-service games", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Newzoo, via GamesIndustry.biz, Vikki Blake (5 October 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/free-to-play-playtime-is-broadly-flat-as-gacha-rpgs-drive-pc-growth-says-newzoo", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "EA shuts down the servers of Anthem, its online shooter from 2019, on 12 January 2026. The game cannot be played without them.", "card_text": "EA switches off Anthem", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "TechRadar, Demi Williams (13 January 2026)", "link": "https://www.techradar.com/gaming/all-those-moments-will-be-lost-in-time-like-tears-in-rain-players-bid-farewell-to-anthem-as-ea-officially-shuts-down-the-games-servers-for-good", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Highguard, a free online shooter, launches on 26 January 2026 and shuts down on 12 March. About two million people tried it. Its developer says it could not build a player base large enough to keep going.", "card_text": "A new online shooter closes 45 days after launch", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "TechRadar (4 March 2026)", "link": "https://www.techradar.com/gaming/highguard-will-shut-down-just-45-days-after-launch-we-are-witnessing-the-era-of-two-month-lifespan-shooters", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Amazon hands the Western versions of Throne and Liberty and Lost Ark back to their Korean makers, having already ended its Lord of the Rings game. Its own New World will shut down on 31 January 2027. These are MMOs, online games where thousands of players share one world.", "card_text": "Amazon gets out of online role-playing games", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Engadget (12 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.engadget.com/2235700/amazon-is-severing-ties-with-two-other-mmos/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Newzoo's yearly market report finds that live-service games and other long-running hits were flat or down in the first half of 2026 compared with a year earlier. Growth was limited to a few: World of Warcraft, Diablo 4, Overwatch, Roblox and some Tencent releases. The public summary gives no figures.", "card_text": "Most established live-service games are flat or shrinking", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz, Sophie McEvoy, on Newzoo (10 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/newzoo-most-established-live-service-and-evergreen-titles-were-flat-or-down-year-over-year-in-h1-2026", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Naughty Dog's own account is the clearest statement of the cost. To ship and then support its online game for years, it says, it would have had to put all its resources there, severely affecting its future single-player games. It chose the single-player games.", "card_text": "A live-service game crowds out everything else a studio makes", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Naughty Dog (14 December 2023)", "link": "https://www.naughtydog.com/blog/an_update_on_the_last_of_us_online", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "A live-service game employs a large team for as long as it runs, so ending one ends the jobs. Bungie said it could not keep operating at its previous size once Destiny 2's updates ended, and laid off most of the team. The studio behind Highguard had already cut staff within weeks of launch.", "card_text": "The jobs go when the game stops", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Informer (25 June 2026)", "link": "https://gameinformer.com/2026/06/25/bungie-is-laying-off-most-of-the-destiny-2-development-team", "source_slug": "game-informer" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Scott Hartsman, who has run several online games, argues that there are few unclaimed players left. A new live game has to be good enough to take players from another live game, he says, in a field where the top two or three titles hold most of each genre and the typical newcomer earns nothing.", "card_text": "A new game has to take players from an old one", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GDC, interview with Scott Hartsman (2025)", "link": "https://gdconf.com/article/the-truth-about-live-service-games-insights-from-industry-veteran-scott-hartsman/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Marc Merrill, co-founder of Riot Games, which built its business on free games, says there is no rule that every Riot game must be free and that the company is working on some that are not. 'Not every game needs to be infinite,' he says.", "card_text": "Free-to-play companies are looking at games you pay for once", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Bryant Francis (8 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/riot-games-marc-merrill-says-company-is-considering-making-premium-games", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Sega's president Shuji Utsumi called its canceled Super Game too risky, and in the same interview said he still sees a business opportunity in live-service games and will keep pursuing it, naming three Sega games. Tencent, China's largest games company, is blunter. 'Our holy grail is live service,' a vice-president told GamesIndustry.biz in September 2026.", "card_text": "The companies backing out say they are not backing out", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz, Sophie McEvoy (7 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/sega-cancelled-its-risky-super-game-project-as-it-would-have-to-grow-enormously-to-match-the-scale-of-the-service", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Steve Sinclair, who runs Digital Extremes, the studio behind Warframe, argues the failures come from impatience. A game 'comes out, doesn't work and they throw it away', he says, and publishers 'eject too soon'. Warframe itself took years to find its audience. Newzoo's 2026 figures support him on the demand side: free-to-play's share of playtime on PC and console fell only 2.9 points between 2021 and 2025, to 29.3%, and absolute hours stayed broadly flat, which Newzoo sums up as 'F2P is not dying'.", "card_text": "Publishers may be quitting too early, not too late", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Chronicle, Jordan Middler (21 July 2024)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/big-publishers-eject-too-soon-from-live-service-titles-says-warframe-boss/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "No one publishes how many live-service games launch, close or get canceled each year. The best-known figure, eight of Sony's twelve, is a tally by reporters of games Sony never named. The Game Developers Conference survey asked about live-service work in one year only, 2025, when 16% of developers said they were working on one. Newzoo's finding that the old hits are shrinking has reached the public without numbers. The retreat is visible case by case, and nobody has measured it.", "card_text": "Nobody counts the closures", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Push Square (17 January 2025)", "link": "https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2025/01/lists-of-sonyrs-cancelled-live-service-ps5-games-paint-a-worrying-picture", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The announcement that ended XDefiant also says that developing games as a service 'remains a pillar of our strategy'. None of the publishers on this page has said it is leaving live-service games. They are closing individual games.", "card_text": "Ubisoft closed a live-service game and recommitted in the same post", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Ubisoft News, Marie-Sophie de Waubert (3 December 2024)", "link": "https://news.ubisoft.com/en-us/article/1EywTnGrZdDqCoxKs2zNhZ/ubisoft-discontinues-development-on-xdefiant", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The end of December 2026, the reported deadline for the Horizon Hunters Gathering team to win over Sony's executives with its reworked version.", "card_text": "Whether Sony keeps its Horizon game alive", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Engadget, relaying Bloomberg (19 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.engadget.com/2239975/guerrilla-games-overhauling-horizon-hunters-gathering-live-service-co-op/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "31 January 2027, when Amazon shuts down New World and completes its exit from online role-playing games. Throne and Liberty and Lost Ark carry on under their Korean makers. Whether they keep their Western players is the open question.", "card_text": "Amazon's last online world closes", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Engadget (12 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.engadget.com/2235700/amazon-is-severing-ties-with-two-other-mmos/", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "subscription-plateau", "name": "Game subscriptions are stalling", "stage": "Emerging", "category": "Money & business model", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "stalled-bets", "horizon_line": "The one-fee-for-everything bet. Subscribers stalled well short of plan, and prices rose instead.", "markets": [ "Global", "US" ], "what_it_is": "Xbox Game Pass is reported to have about 30 million paying subscribers, far below the 77 million Microsoft's internal plan projected for this point. A steep price rise in late 2025 drove people away, and Microsoft partly reversed it in 2026. Sony has stopped publishing PlayStation Plus numbers. Companies are now trimming what subscribers get. From November 2026, Xbox limits how much cloud streaming each tier includes and sells extra hours separately.", "why_it_matters": "For a decade the industry bet that games would follow TV and music into one monthly fee for a big library, and that bet drove huge acquisitions. Subscriber numbers have since stalled well short of company plans, and prices have gone up instead.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Microsoft's Game Pass performance is far below expectations", "link": "https://www.wsj.com/tech/microsoft-layoffs-xbox-59e7f6df", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "Subscriptions are the only growing segment, but barely, inside a market down 21%", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/circana-the-us-video-game-market", "type": "Data", "format": "" }, { "source": "More than 40% of people cancelling Xbox Game Pass, PlayStation Plus and Nintendo Switch Online subscriptions blame rising costs", "link": "https://www.eurogamer.net/xbox-game-pass-playstation-plus-nintendo-cancellations-rising-costs", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "The Verge Xbox coverage, WSJ tech desk, Circana subscription spending data, Microsoft earnings", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "Subscribers as the companies announced them, millions, by year", "series_note": "PlayStation Plus stopped growing in 2021 and Game Pass is reported to be shrinking. Microsoft's own plan had Game Pass at about 77 million by now.", "series_type": "line", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "77: Microsoft's plan for Game Pass by mid-decade", "timeline_heads": true, "claims": [ { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Game Pass subscribers, in millions, as Microsoft announced in September 2020.", "card_text": "15", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "Microsoft's and Sony's own announcements, with Game Pass in 2026 as reported by The Wall Street Journal", "link": "https://gamerant.com/xbox-game-pass-subscriber-count-2025-growth-history-estimate/", "source_slug": "", "series": "Xbox Game Pass" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Game Pass subscribers, in millions, as Microsoft announced in January 2021.", "card_text": "18", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "Microsoft's and Sony's own announcements, with Game Pass in 2026 as reported by The Wall Street Journal", "link": "https://gamerant.com/xbox-game-pass-subscriber-count-2025-growth-history-estimate/", "source_slug": "", "series": "Xbox Game Pass" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Game Pass subscribers, in millions, as Microsoft announced in January 2022.", "card_text": "25", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "Microsoft's and Sony's own announcements, with Game Pass in 2026 as reported by The Wall Street Journal", "link": "https://gamerant.com/xbox-game-pass-subscriber-count-2025-growth-history-estimate/", "source_slug": "", "series": "Xbox Game Pass" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Game Pass subscribers, in millions, as Microsoft announced in February 2024, the last number it has given.", "card_text": "34", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Microsoft's and Sony's own announcements, with Game Pass in 2026 as reported by The Wall Street Journal", "link": "https://www.techradar.com/gaming/consoles-pc/xbox-game-pass-now-has-34-million-subscribers", "source_slug": "", "series": "Xbox Game Pass" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Game Pass in July 2026: about 30 million paying subscribers. This is a Wall Street Journal report, not a Microsoft announcement, so it is marked as approximate.", "card_text": "~30", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Microsoft's and Sony's own announcements, with Game Pass in 2026 as reported by The Wall Street Journal", "link": "https://kotaku.com/game-pass-is-reportedly-back-down-to-30-million-subscribers-2000712971", "source_slug": "", "series": "Xbox Game Pass" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "PlayStation Plus subscribers, in millions, at the end of March 2020, from Sony's results.", "card_text": "41.5", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "Microsoft's and Sony's own announcements, with Game Pass in 2026 as reported by The Wall Street Journal", "link": "https://gamingbolt.com/ps4-and-ps5-game-sales-in-fy20-total-338-9-million-playstation-plus-subscribers-at-47-6-million", "source_slug": "", "series": "PlayStation Plus" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "PlayStation Plus subscribers, in millions, at the end of March 2021, from Sony's results.", "card_text": "47.6", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "Microsoft's and Sony's own announcements, with Game Pass in 2026 as reported by The Wall Street Journal", "link": "https://gamingbolt.com/ps4-and-ps5-game-sales-in-fy20-total-338-9-million-playstation-plus-subscribers-at-47-6-million", "source_slug": "", "series": "PlayStation Plus" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "PlayStation Plus subscribers, in millions, at the end of March 2022, from Sony's results.", "card_text": "47.4", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "Microsoft's and Sony's own announcements, with Game Pass in 2026 as reported by The Wall Street Journal", "link": "https://www.psu.com/news/playstation-plus-subscribers-hit-47-4-million-down-slightly-on-previous-year/", "source_slug": "", "series": "PlayStation Plus" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "PlayStation Plus subscribers, in millions, at the end of March 2023, the last count Sony has published.", "card_text": "47.4", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Microsoft's and Sony's own announcements, with Game Pass in 2026 as reported by The Wall Street Journal", "link": "https://www.psu.com/news/ps-plus-subscribers-hit-47-4-million-sony-confirms-in-latest-financial-report/", "source_slug": "", "series": "PlayStation Plus" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Microsoft's internal plan, written in 2022 and made public during the legal fight over its Activision purchase, had Game Pass reaching about 77 million subscribers by the middle of the decade and more than 100 million by 2030. The service had 25 million at the time.", "card_text": "Microsoft plans for 77 million Game Pass subscribers by mid-decade", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "Kotaku, Ethan Gach (6 July 2026)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/game-pass-is-reportedly-back-down-to-30-million-subscribers-2000712971", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Sony reports 47.4 million PlayStation Plus subscribers at the end of March, the same as a year earlier and slightly below 2021's 47.6 million. It is the last time Sony gives a number. Since then it has reported only percentages.", "card_text": "Sony publishes a PlayStation Plus subscriber count for the last time", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "PlayStation Universe, on Sony's financial report", "link": "https://www.psu.com/news/ps-plus-subscribers-hit-47-4-million-sony-confirms-in-latest-financial-report/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Microsoft says Game Pass has 34 million subscribers, up from 25 million two years earlier. It is the last figure the company has given.", "card_text": "Microsoft publishes a Game Pass subscriber count for the last time", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "TechRadar (February 2024)", "link": "https://www.techradar.com/gaming/consoles-pc/xbox-game-pass-now-has-34-million-subscribers", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Microsoft raises Game Pass Ultimate, its top tier, from $19.99 to $29.99 a month and reorganizes the service into three tiers. The cheaper two, Essential at $9.99 and Premium at $14.99, keep their prices.", "card_text": "Microsoft raises Game Pass Ultimate by 50%", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "CNBC (1 October 2025)", "link": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/01/microsoft-price-hike-xbox-game-pass-ultimate.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "US spending on game subscriptions grows 20% in 2025, in a year when total spending on games rose 1.4% to $60.7 billion.", "card_text": "US subscription spending grows 20% in a flat market", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Entertainment Software Association, on Circana's figures (January 2026)", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/2025-u-s-consumer-spending-on-video-games-nears-pandemic-level-peak-at-60-7-billion-second-highest-on-record/", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Microsoft cuts Game Pass Ultimate from $29.99 to $22.99 a month and PC Game Pass from $16.49 to $13.99. New Call of Duty games will no longer arrive on the service at launch, coming about a year later instead. Even after the cut, Ultimate costs 35% more than two years earlier.", "card_text": "Microsoft partly reverses the price rise and delays Call of Duty", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "The Game Business, Christopher Dring (21 April 2026)", "link": "https://www.thegamebusiness.com/p/xbox-cuts-game-pass-ultimate-price", "source_slug": "the-game-business" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "In June, subscriptions grow 7% from a year earlier. Total US spending falls 21% to $4.5 billion, and spending on games and what is sold inside them falls 12%.", "card_text": "Subscriptions are the only part of US game spending that grows", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GameDev Reports, on Circana (29 July 2026)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/circana-the-us-video-game-market", "source_slug": "gamedev-reports" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Wall Street Journal reports that Game Pass is down to about 30 million paying subscribers, 4 million fewer than in 2024. Microsoft's own leadership says the 2025 price rise cost the service millions of subscribers. Microsoft has not confirmed the figure.", "card_text": "Game Pass is reported at 30 million subscribers, not 77 million", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Kotaku, Ethan Gach, on The Wall Street Journal (6 July 2026)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/game-pass-is-reportedly-back-down-to-30-million-subscribers-2000712971", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Starting in November, Microsoft limits cloud streaming, the part of Game Pass that lets subscribers play without downloading: 15 hours a month on Ultimate, 10 on Premium, and 5 on Essential, with extra hours sold separately. Microsoft says about 4% of subscribers play more than that.", "card_text": "Microsoft caps how many hours subscribers can stream from the cloud", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Xbox Wire, Upcoming changes to Xbox Cloud Gaming (3 September 2026)", "link": "https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2026/09/03/xbox-cloud-gaming-changes/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Within a week of announcing the cloud caps, Microsoft begins offering lapsed and some current Ultimate subscribers 12-month discounts reported at $16 to $20 a month, as much as 30% below the list price. It is a targeted win-back offer rather than a change to the list price. The reports come from subscribers sharing their offers, and Microsoft has not confirmed them.", "card_text": "Microsoft offers discounts to win back lapsed subscribers", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Rant, Adrian Morales (7 September 2026)", "link": "https://gamerant.com/xbox-game-pass-dynamic-pricing-subscription/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Circana's survey of Americans who canceled a games subscription: more than 40% of those leaving Game Pass or PlayStation Plus say cost was the main reason, up from 37% at the start of the year. For Nintendo Switch Online it is 50%, up from 40%.", "card_text": "Cost becomes the main reason people cancel", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Eurogamer, Kaan Serin, on Mat Piscatella's Circana figures (11 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.eurogamer.net/xbox-game-pass-playstation-plus-nintendo-cancellations-rising-costs", "source_slug": "mat-piscatella" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The number of subscribers has stopped growing, but the money has not. US spending on game subscriptions rose 20% in 2025, the year Microsoft raised its top tier by half. When a service cannot add subscribers, growth has to come from charging the ones it has more.", "card_text": "Fewer subscribers, more money from each", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Entertainment Software Association, on Circana's figures (January 2026)", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/2025-u-s-consumer-spending-on-video-games-nears-pandemic-level-peak-at-60-7-billion-second-highest-on-record/", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Microsoft spent $68.7 billion on Activision with a plan that had Game Pass at about 77 million subscribers by now. It is reported to have about 30 million. The company's new leadership has said its Game Pass bets did not grow as fast as expected, and the shortfall is one of the reasons given for this year's Xbox layoffs.", "card_text": "The plan behind the acquisitions has not happened", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Kotaku, Ethan Gach, on The Wall Street Journal (6 July 2026)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/game-pass-is-reportedly-back-down-to-30-million-subscribers-2000712971", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Subscribers get less for more. Game Pass was sold on getting Microsoft's biggest games the day they came out. New Call of Duty games now arrive about a year late, and the price is still 35% above where it was two years ago. Christopher Dring expects further changes, because the service is growing slowly.", "card_text": "The bundle shrinks while the price stays high", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "The Game Business, Christopher Dring (21 April 2026)", "link": "https://www.thegamebusiness.com/p/xbox-cuts-game-pass-ultimate-price", "source_slug": "the-game-business" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Measured in money, subscriptions are not plateauing at all. They were the only part of US game spending that grew in June 2026, up 7% while the whole market fell 21%. The plateau is in subscriber numbers. In dollars, this is the healthiest part of the business.", "card_text": "In dollars, subscriptions are still growing", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GameDev Reports, on Circana (29 July 2026)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/circana-the-us-video-game-market", "source_slug": "gamedev-reports" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "That more people blame the price does not mean more people are leaving. Mat Piscatella says so himself: his figure is the share of reasons given by people who canceled, and says nothing about how many canceled.", "card_text": "Blaming the price is not the same as more people leaving", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Eurogamer, Kaan Serin, on Mat Piscatella's Circana figures (11 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.eurogamer.net/xbox-game-pass-playstation-plus-nintendo-cancellations-rising-costs", "source_slug": "mat-piscatella" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Nobody outside the companies knows the real figures. Microsoft last gave a count in February 2024, Sony in March 2023. The 30 million is a newspaper report. Other estimates have pointed the other way: Omdia put Game Pass at 33.3 million at the end of 2023, and Game Rant estimated 38 million in mid-2025, before the price rise.", "card_text": "The companies have stopped publishing the numbers", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Game Rant, Dominik Bošnjak (9 June 2025)", "link": "https://gamerant.com/xbox-game-pass-subscriber-count-2025-growth-history-estimate/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "November 2026, when the cloud streaming limits start and Microsoft sets the price of extra hours. The test is whether the 4% who play the most pay for more time or leave.", "card_text": "What the cloud limit does in November", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Xbox Wire, Upcoming changes to Xbox Cloud Gaming (3 September 2026)", "link": "https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2026/09/03/xbox-cloud-gaming-changes/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Circana's full-year US figures, due in January 2027. Subscription spending grew 20% in 2025 on the back of a price rise that has since been partly reversed. The figures will show whether it keeps growing without one.", "card_text": "Whether subscription spending grows without a price rise", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Circana", "link": "https://www.circana.com/industries/video-games", "source_slug": "circana" } ] }, { "slug": "creator-platforms-as-sovereign-economies", "name": "Platforms are paying players to build their games", "stage": "Emerging", "category": "Money & business model", "horizon": "h3", "horizon_group": null, "horizon_line": "Players as producers. Volatile, but pointing the right way.", "markets": [ "CN", "Global", "US" ], "what_it_is": "Three platforms now pay their players to build the games other players play. Roblox paid its creators $1.5 billion in 2025, up from $112 million in 2019. Epic Games says Fortnite creators have earned over $1 billion since 2023, and their games took 47% of hours played in May 2026. NetEase says Eggy Party has paid its map makers over 200 million yuan. The money is uneven. Roblox's typical paid creator earned about $1,500 in a year.", "why_it_matters": "On Roblox, Fortnite and Eggy Party, much of the play is in games players build and are paid for. The makers are not employees. Each platform's income rides on hits it does not make. In 2026 Roblox withdrew its forecast as its hits faded.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Roblox loses $70 billion in value as company blames lack of viral games", "link": "https://www.dexerto.com/roblox/roblox-loses-70-billion-in-value-as-company-blames-lack-of-viral-games-3395064/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "Unreal Engine for Fortnite creator payouts surpass $1bn", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/unreal-engine-for-fortnite-creator-payouts-surpass-1bn/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "Roblox says it'll help developers release their games as standalone apps across PC, mobile, and consoles", "link": "https://www.tubefilter.com/2026/09/11/roblox-developers-conference-2026-game-apps-creator-payouts-roblox-wallet-roblox-card/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "Roblox quarterly earnings and annual reports, Epic's Unreal Fest and Fortnite developer documentation, NetEase earnings calls and the Eggy Party creators' conference, Game Developer, Naavik deep dives", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "What Roblox paid its creators each quarter, $ millions", "series_note": "Payouts more than doubled in two years, peaked at $477 million in the last quarter of 2025 and fell in both quarters of 2026. Each 2026 quarter is still above the same quarter a year earlier.", "series_type": "line", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "Three platforms now pay their players to build the games other players play. ", { "text": "Roblox", "href": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1315098/000131509826000024/rblx-20251231.htm" }, " paid its creators $1.5 billion in 2025, up from $112 million in 2019. ", { "text": "Epic Games", "href": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/unreal-engine-for-fortnite-creator-payouts-surpass-1bn/" }, " says Fortnite creators have earned over $1 billion since 2023, and their games took 47% of hours played in May 2026. NetEase says ", { "text": "Eggy Party", "href": "https://party.163.com/official/20260714/35180_1307534.html" }, " has paid its map makers over 200 million yuan. The money is uneven. Roblox's typical paid creator earned about $1,500 in a year." ], "series_format": "${n} million", "claims": [ { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Roblox paid or owed its creators in cash for the first quarter of 2024. Roblox calls this line developer exchange fees and reports it as $202,405 thousand.", "card_text": "202.4", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Roblox Corporation's quarterly results", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1315098/000131509824000094/rblx-20240509xexhibit991.htm", "source_slug": "roblox-ir-sec-filings", "period": "Q1 2024" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Roblox paid or owed its creators in cash for the second quarter of 2024. Roblox calls this line developer exchange fees and reports it as $208,270 thousand.", "card_text": "208.3", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Roblox Corporation's quarterly results", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1315098/000131509824000163/rblx-20240801xexhibit991.htm", "source_slug": "roblox-ir-sec-filings", "period": "Q2 2024" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Roblox paid or owed its creators in cash for the third quarter of 2024. Roblox calls this line developer exchange fees and reports it as $231,536 thousand.", "card_text": "231.5", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Roblox Corporation's quarterly results", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1315098/000131509824000248/rblx-20241031xexhibit991.htm", "source_slug": "roblox-ir-sec-filings", "period": "Q3 2024" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Roblox paid or owed its creators in cash for the fourth quarter of 2024. Roblox calls this line developer exchange fees and reports it as $280,610 thousand.", "card_text": "280.6", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Roblox Corporation's quarterly results", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1315098/000131509825000021/rblx-20250206xexhibit991.htm", "source_slug": "roblox-ir-sec-filings", "period": "Q4 2024" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Roblox paid or owed its creators in cash for the first quarter of 2025. Roblox calls this line developer exchange fees and reports it as $281,564 thousand.", "card_text": "281.6", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Roblox Corporation's quarterly results", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1315098/000131509825000117/rblx-20250331xexhibit991.htm", "source_slug": "roblox-ir-sec-filings", "period": "Q1 2025" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Roblox paid or owed its creators in cash for the second quarter of 2025. Roblox calls this line developer exchange fees and reports it as $316,371 thousand.", "card_text": "316.4", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Roblox Corporation's quarterly results", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1315098/000131509825000261/rblx-20250630xexhibit991.htm", "source_slug": "roblox-ir-sec-filings", "period": "Q2 2025" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Roblox paid or owed its creators in cash for the third quarter of 2025. Roblox calls this line developer exchange fees and reports it as $427,931 thousand.", "card_text": "427.9", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Roblox Corporation's quarterly results", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1315098/000131509825000326/ex991-q32025shareholderl.htm", "source_slug": "roblox-ir-sec-filings", "period": "Q3 2025" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Roblox paid or owed its creators in cash for the fourth quarter of 2025. Roblox calls this line developer exchange fees and reports it as $477,240 thousand.", "card_text": "477.2", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Roblox Corporation's quarterly results", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1315098/000131509826000009/ex991-q42025shareholder.htm", "source_slug": "roblox-ir-sec-filings", "period": "Q4 2025" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Roblox paid or owed its creators in cash for the first quarter of 2026. Roblox calls this line developer exchange fees and reports it as $423 million.", "card_text": "423", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Roblox Corporation's quarterly results", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1315098/000162828026028882/ex991-q12026earningsshar.htm", "source_slug": "roblox-ir-sec-filings", "period": "Q1 2026" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Roblox paid or owed its creators in cash for the second quarter of 2026. Roblox calls this line developer exchange fees and reports it as $363 million.", "card_text": "363", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Roblox Corporation's quarterly results", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1315098/000162828026051059/ex991-robloxq22026earnin.htm", "source_slug": "roblox-ir-sec-filings", "period": "Q2 2026" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Roblox's payouts to the people who build its games rise from $112 million in 2019 to $329 million in 2020, as what players spend on the platform goes from $694 million to $1.9 billion.", "card_text": "Creators' payouts nearly triple in the pandemic year", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "Roblox Corporation, annual report for 2021 (25 February 2022)", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1315098/000131509822000058/rblx-20211231.htm", "source_slug": "roblox-ir-sec-filings" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Tencent releases DreamStar in December 2023 as its answer to Eggy Party, NetEase's party game built on maps its players make. By March 2024 it has moved hundreds of staff to the game from other projects. Eggy Party had passed 500 million players in under two years.", "card_text": "Tencent launches DreamStar to take on Eggy Party", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "PocketGamer.biz, Aaron Astle (25 March 2024)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/tencent-focusing-on-fewer-bigger-budget-games-as-it-shifts-away-from-ip-strategy/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Hindenburg Research, a firm that bets on share prices falling, alleges that Roblox overstates its daily users by 25% to 42%. Roblox says its daily user figure counts accounts and is not a measure of unique individuals.", "card_text": "A short seller says Roblox overstates its users", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Justin Carter (8 October 2024)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/roblox-report-inflated-user-numbers-child-predator-presence-investors", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Epic Games, which runs a similar scheme inside Fortnite, pays $352 million for the year to about 70,000 creators, up from 24,000 creators the year before. Games made by players account for 36.5% of all time spent in Fortnite.", "card_text": "Epic pays Fortnite creators $352 million", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Tubefilter, James Hale, on Epic's year in review (23 January 2025)", "link": "https://www.tubefilter.com/2025/01/23/fortnite-epic-games-creator-payouts-2024/", "source_slug": "tubefilter" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Grow a Garden, begun by an anonymous 16-year-old in March, reaches nearly 22 million simultaneous players in July, more than Fortnite's record of 15.3 million.", "card_text": "A game started by a 16-year-old draws nearly 22 million players at once", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Diego Arguello (31 July 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/roblox-s-grow-a-garden-had-nearly-22-million-concurrent-users-in-july", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Creators earn Robux, the platform's own currency, and exchange it with Roblox for dollars at a rate Roblox sets. Roblox raises that rate by 8.5%, from $0.0035 to $0.0038 per Robux.", "card_text": "Roblox raises the rate it pays creators for the first time in about eight years", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Roblox Developer Forum (5 September 2025)", "link": "https://devforum.roblox.com/t/increasing-devex-%E2%80%94-creators-will-now-earn-85-more/3920159", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Roblox reports $1.5 billion in payouts to creators for 2025, up 63% in a year, against $6.8 billion spent by players, up about 55%. More than 23,500 creators were paid. Half of all time on the platform, 51%, was spent in its 50 most popular games.", "card_text": "Payouts pass $1.5 billion, up 63% in a year", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Roblox Corporation, annual report for 2025 (11 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1315098/000131509826000024/rblx-20251231.htm", "source_slug": "roblox-ir-sec-filings" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Reporting its second quarter, Roblox declines to repeat its full-year forecast and tells investors to expect player spending in the third quarter to fall 14% to 18% from a year earlier, the first fall it has ever forecast. Quarterly payouts to creators drop from $423 million to $363 million.", "card_text": "Roblox withdraws its forecast for the year", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "TechTimes, Joshua Mitchell (5 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/323188/20260805/roblox-stock-full-year-guidance-pulled-q2-bookings-hit-first-ever-decline.htm", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Dexerto calculates that Roblox has lost roughly $70 billion in market value over twelve months, with its shares down about 70%. Roblox's finance chief says players moved away from the high-earning viral games of 2025 toward games that bring in less.", "card_text": "About $70 billion of market value is gone in a year", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Dexerto, Calum Patterson (5 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.dexerto.com/roblox/roblox-loses-70-billion-in-value-as-company-blames-lack-of-viral-games-3395064/", "source_slug": "dexerto" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Roblox's own report on its economy says more than 42,000 creators are in its cash-out program, that 83% of them are individuals rather than companies, and that the one in the middle earned about $1,500 in the twelve months to June 2026.", "card_text": "Roblox says the typical paid creator earns about $1,500 a year", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Roblox, The Global Impact of Creation on Roblox (September 2026)", "link": "https://about.roblox.com/newsroom/2026/09/global-impact-of-creation-on-roblox", "source_slug": "roblox-ir-sec-filings" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "At its developers conference Roblox announces Roblox Everywhere, which lets a creator release a Roblox game as a standalone app on phones, PCs and consoles. It also announces Roblox Wallet, which pays creators in real currency every business day, for US creators aged 18 and over later in 2026. A debit card follows in 2027. Roblox says creators earned about $1.7 billion in the twelve months to June 2026, and over $5 billion since 2013.", "card_text": "Roblox lets creators take their games, and their money, off the platform", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Roblox, David Baszucki (11 September 2026)", "link": "https://about.roblox.com/newsroom/2026/09/rdc-2026-the-world-needs-more-play", "source_slug": "roblox-ir-sec-filings" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "At Unreal Fest in June, Hannah Lowry, who runs Epic's relations with Fortnite developers, says creators have earned more than $1 billion since Epic opened Fortnite to games made with its editor in 2023. Games made by players took 47% of all hours played in Fortnite in May 2026, up from 38% a year earlier.", "card_text": "Epic says Fortnite creators have earned over $1 billion", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PocketGamer.biz, Aaron Astle (18 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/unreal-engine-for-fortnite-creator-payouts-surpass-1bn/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Players pay for items inside Fortnite's player-made games, known as islands, with V-Bucks, Fortnite's own currency. From 9 January 2026 to 31 January 2027 Epic pays creators 100% of the dollar value of the V-Bucks spent in their islands, instead of the usual 50%. That value is counted after store and console fees, which Epic says currently average 26%.", "card_text": "Epic pays creators the full value of sales in their games until 2027", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Epic Games, In-Island Transactions Overview in Fortnite (read 30 September 2026)", "link": "https://dev.epicgames.com/documentation/fortnite/in-island-transactions-overview-in-fortnite", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "At Eggy Party's fourth creators' conference in July, NetEase says the incentives and revenue shares it has paid to players who build maps have passed 200 million yuan. It calls the past year the first in which those maps were run for money, with 1 billion gold beans, the currency spent inside maps, and more than 5 billion ad plays. NetEase says the game has 600 million players.", "card_text": "NetEase says Eggy Party has paid its map makers over 200 million yuan", "year": "2026", "market": "CN", "source": "Eggy Party official site, NetEase (14 July 2026)", "link": "https://party.163.com/official/20260714/35180_1307534.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Roblox makes no games itself. Its finance chief, Naveen Chopra, put the 2026 shortfall down to players drifting from the 'high monetizing 2025 vintage viral games' to games that earn less. When creators' hits fade and nothing replaces them, a public company's revenue falls with them.", "card_text": "Roblox's income depends on hits it does not make", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Dexerto, Calum Patterson (5 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.dexerto.com/roblox/roblox-loses-70-billion-in-value-as-company-blames-lack-of-viral-games-3395064/", "source_slug": "dexerto" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Roblox tells its own investors that this is a risk. In December 2025, 51% of all hours on the platform were spent in the top 50 games, and the annual report warns that a fall in their popularity would have a material effect on the business.", "card_text": "A handful of games carry the platform", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Roblox Corporation, annual report for 2025 (11 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1315098/000131509826000024/rblx-20251231.htm", "source_slug": "roblox-ir-sec-filings" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Roblox says its top 1,000 creators earned an average of $1.3 million in 2025. Its own report puts the typical paid creator at about $1,500 a year. The economy is large, and most of the people in it earn very little.", "card_text": "The money goes to very few", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr (9 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/the-biggest-roblox-creators-earned-an-average-of-1-3-million-in-2025", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The fall is from a peak, not below the old level. Roblox paid creators $363 million in the second quarter of 2026 against $316 million a year earlier, and its average daily users were 123 million against 111.8 million. What has changed is the direction, and the forecast.", "card_text": "Every quarter of 2026 is still above the year before", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Roblox, second-quarter 2026 shareholder letter (30 July 2026)", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1315098/000162828026051059/ex991-robloxq22026earnin.htm", "source_slug": "roblox-ir-sec-filings" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Roblox now checks the age of users who want to chat, and by August 2026 had checked 57% of its daily users. Game Developer reports that the checks reduced chatting and slowed the arrival of new users, as average daily users fell to 123 million in the second quarter of 2026. Roblox's own reports put the peak at 152 million, its average for the third quarter of 2025.", "card_text": "Safety checks, not missing hits, may have cost it users", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Diego Arguello (4 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/amid-child-safety-lawsuits-roblox-says-it-continues-to-set-a-standard-for-digital-safety", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Two widely repeated figures, that the top 1,000 creators take 73% of payouts and that 85% of creators earn under $100 a month, are not Roblox's. Both come from ROLearn, a Roblox tutoring site, the first from its own sample of about 2,000 games. ROLearn itself notes that Roblox does not publish individual earnings. Roblox gives no breakdown by creators' age either.", "card_text": "Nobody publishes how the money is shared out", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "ROLearn, Tu Dang (6 February 2026)", "link": "https://rolearn.dev/trend-reports/creator-economy-2025-report/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "TechTimes lists other causes Roblox itself has named besides age checks: a change to its recommendation system that favored keeping players over getting them to spend, and the end of some cross-game sales. Revenue still rose 36% in the second quarter.", "card_text": "The 2026 slump was not only about missing hits", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "TechTimes, Joshua Mitchell (5 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/323188/20260805/roblox-stock-full-year-guidance-pulled-q2-bookings-hit-first-ever-decline.htm", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Roblox's third-quarter results, expected around the end of October 2026. Roblox has forecast a fall in player spending of 14% to 18%. The results will show whether payouts to creators fall with it, and add the next point to this chart.", "card_text": "The first forecast fall in player spending", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "TechTimes, Joshua Mitchell (5 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/323188/20260805/roblox-stock-full-year-guidance-pulled-q2-bookings-hit-first-ever-decline.htm", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "February 2027, when Roblox's annual report for 2026 is due, the first yearly figures since the downturn began. The debit card is also due to start rolling out in 2027.", "card_text": "The first annual report since the downturn began", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Roblox, David Baszucki (11 September 2026)", "link": "https://about.roblox.com/newsroom/2026/09/rdc-2026-the-world-needs-more-play", "source_slug": "roblox-ir-sec-filings" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "31 January 2027, when Epic's 100% share of in-island sales for Fortnite creators is due to fall back to 50%. The thing to watch is whether Epic extends it, and whether creators' earnings fall when it ends.", "card_text": "The end of Epic's full share for creators", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Epic Games, In-Island Transactions Overview in Fortnite (read 30 September 2026)", "link": "https://dev.epicgames.com/documentation/fortnite/in-island-transactions-overview-in-fortnite", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "child-safety-enforcement-in-game-platforms", "name": "Regulators are forcing child-safety changes on platforms", "stage": "Dominant", "category": "Regulation, safety & age", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "rewriting-rules", "horizon_line": "Forces identity and safety infrastructure onto open, player-built platforms.", "markets": [ "AU", "BR", "EU", "Global", "MENA", "RU", "TR", "UK", "US" ], "what_it_is": "Roblox faces 182 lawsuits before one US federal judge, suits from several states, and since August 2026 a Senate investigation. Roblox disputes the claims. In Australia it has made a court-enforceable promise to limit adults' contact with children and accept an outside audit. A Texas order requires age checks on Discord, and Brazil made Discord switch off livestreaming. Blocks are the blunter tool, and they do not always last. Russia lifted its block on Roblox after six months.", "why_it_matters": "Platforms where children play and chat, such as Roblox and Discord, spent years facing lawsuits and bad headlines over child safety. Governments are now ordering specific changes, some with deadlines attached. For players, the most visible result is being asked to prove their age.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "eSafety secures court-enforceable undertaking from Roblox", "link": "https://www.esafety.gov.au/newsroom/media-releases/esafety-secures-court-enforceable-undertaking-from-roblox-to-do-more-to-protect-australian-kids-from-grooming-and-sexual-exploitation", "type": "Primary", "format": "" }, { "source": "Australians must now prove their age to buy R18+ games", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/gaming-industry/australians-must-now-prove-their-age-to-buy-r18-games-on-the-xbox-store/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "Steam implements age verification for R18+ games in Australia, credit card required", "link": "https://thisweekinvideogames.com/news/steam-implements-age-verification-for-r18-games-in-australia-credit-card-required/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Oct 2026", "where_to_follow": "eSafety Commissioner (AU), Ofcom Online Safety Act updates (UK), state AG press offices, The Guardian tech desk, Roblox's safety blog and earnings calls", "status_label": "What has been compelled", "measure_label": "The detail", "row_label": "", "series_label": "", "series_note": "", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "Roblox faces 182 lawsuits before one US federal judge, suits from several states, and since August 2026 a Senate investigation. Roblox disputes the claims. In Australia it has made a ", { "text": "court-enforceable promise", "href": "https://www.esafety.gov.au/newsroom/media-releases/esafety-secures-court-enforceable-undertaking-from-roblox-to-do-more-to-protect-australian-kids-from-grooming-and-sexual-exploitation" }, " to limit adults' contact with children and accept an outside audit. A Texas order requires age checks on Discord, and Brazil made Discord switch off livestreaming. Blocks are the blunter tool, and they do not always last. Russia lifted its block on Roblox after six months." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Roblox has given the online safety regulator a promise that a court can enforce. It must stop adults contacting children they do not know without a parent's consent, make under-16 accounts private by default, and accept the first independent audit required under Australia's Online Safety Act. It has three months.", "card_text": "Roblox bound to changes and an outside audit", "year": "2026", "market": "AU", "source": "eSafety Commissioner, media release (20 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.esafety.gov.au/newsroom/media-releases/esafety-secures-court-enforceable-undertaking-from-roblox-to-do-more-to-protect-australian-kids-from-grooming-and-sexual-exploitation", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A Senate Judiciary subcommittee has told Roblox to preserve its child-safety records and hand over documents by the end of August 2026. No federal rule compels changes. The pressure is the investigation, suits by state attorneys general, and private lawsuits gathered before one federal judge.", "card_text": "Senate investigation, and 182 lawsuits", "year": "2026", "market": "US", "source": "PC Gamer, Andy Chalk (14 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/software/platforms/us-senate-launches-investigation-into-roblox-children-on-your-platform-are-hurting-congress-will-not-look-the-other-way/", "source_slug": "pc-gamer" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "An agreed court order in Texas, announced on 24 July 2026, gives Discord 90 days to give Texas users the same age checks and default safety settings it already runs in the UK. Discord consented to the order. It binds one state.", "card_text": "Texas: Discord ordered to apply its UK protections", "year": "2026", "market": "US", "source": "Texas Attorney General, press release (24 July 2026)", "link": "https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-secures-historic-legal-victory-forcing-discord-protect-texas-children", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "After a demand from the regulator Ofcom under the Online Safety Act, Roblox committed to using age checks so that it suggests only age-suitable games, and to letting parents of under-16s switch chat off.", "card_text": "Commitments, not an order", "year": "2026", "market": "UK", "source": "Engadget, Mariella Moon (21 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.engadget.com/2178368/meta-snap-roblox-ofcom-uk-child-safety-pledge/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The European Commission has designated Roblox a very large online platform under the Digital Services Act, the tier for services with 45 million or more monthly users in the EU. It has until the end of December 2026 to comply with the tier's duties.", "card_text": "Designated, with a December deadline", "year": "2026", "market": "EU", "source": "The Verge, Emma Roth (31 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/986682/openai-chatgpt-eu-dsa", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Roblox has been blocked entirely since a court order of 7 August 2024. The justice minister cited content that could lead to the abuse of children.", "card_text": "Blocked by a court", "year": "2024", "market": "TR", "source": "BBC News Türkçe (7 August 2024)", "link": "https://www.bbc.com/turkce/articles/c0l8w6gr7zzo", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The media regulator blocked Roblox in December 2025 and lifted the block in June 2026, after Roblox added limits on which games each age group can reach, and after 63,000 letters from children and parents.", "card_text": "Blocked, then unblocked", "year": "2026", "market": "RU", "source": "Deseret News, Emily Walker (20 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/roblox-returns-russia-63-000-153547364.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The data protection authority ordered Discord on 12 August 2026 to suspend its livestreaming and video tools, and Discord says it complied on 17 August. On 24 September the authority refused Discord's request to restore them, and the company's appeal goes to the authority's board, with the tools suspended until it rules.", "card_text": "Discord livestreams suspended", "year": "2026", "market": "BR", "source": "O Tempo, relaying Folhapress (25 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.otempo.com.br/brasil/2026/9/25/discord-anpd-nega-volta-das-lives-no-brasil-e-cobra-provas-de-bloqueio", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Qatar blocked Roblox on 13 August 2025 and Kuwait's telecoms regulator announced a temporary block on 21 August. Oman and Jordan have banned it since 2020. The United Arab Emirates banned it from 2018 to 2021.", "card_text": "Blocked in several Gulf states", "year": "2025", "market": "MENA", "source": "The National, Gemma White (27 August 2025)", "link": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/lifestyle/2025/08/27/is-roblox-safe-as-gulf-countries-ban-platform/", "source_slug": "the-national" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Nothing is compelled yet. The Commission's draft KIDS Act of 17 September 2026 would require games to be safe by design, restrict contact between minors and other users, and oblige the largest platforms, those with 45 million or more monthly users in the EU, to submit a compliance plan verified by independent auditors at their own expense before their services come into contact with children. Fines can reach 6% of worldwide annual turnover. It is a proposal.", "card_text": "Proposed: safety by design, with an audit before children are reached", "year": "2026", "market": "EU", "source": "European Commission, The KIDS Act explained (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/faqs/kids-act-explained", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Nothing is compelled yet. The Commission's draft KIDS Act of 17 September 2026 would require app stores to age-rate every app, including videogames, with a published methodology, to refuse children access to or purchase of apps inappropriate for their age, and to carry the EU age verification app. It is a duty on the store rather than on the developer, and it is a proposal.", "card_text": "Proposed: a duty to rate every game and carry the age-check app", "year": "2026", "market": "EU", "source": "European Commission, The KIDS Act explained (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/faqs/kids-act-explained", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A criminal court in Adana orders access to Roblox blocked across Turkey on 7 August 2024. The justice minister says the platform carries content that could lead to the abuse of children.", "card_text": "A Turkish court blocks Roblox", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "BBC News Türkçe (7 August 2024)", "link": "https://www.bbc.com/turkce/articles/c0l8w6gr7zzo", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Louisiana's attorney general, Liz Murrill, sues Roblox, calling it 'the perfect place for pedophiles'. Other states follow.", "card_text": "Louisiana files the first state lawsuit against Roblox", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "NBC News, Tim Stelloh (14 August 2025)", "link": "https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/louisiana-attorney-general-sues-roblox-calling-platform-perfect-place-rcna225144", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Roblox says every user who wants to chat must have their age estimated from a face scan, or show identification. The rule is enforced first in Australia, the Netherlands and New Zealand in early December, then worldwide by early January 2026.", "card_text": "Roblox announces age checks for anyone who wants to chat", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Variety, Giana Levy (18 November 2025)", "link": "https://variety.com/2025/gaming/news/roblox-launches-required-facial-age-checks-1236584050/", "source_slug": "variety" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A panel of federal judges sends the child-exploitation lawsuits against Roblox to a single judge in northern California for the stages before trial. The panel's monthly count stood at 85 cases in January 2026 and 182 on 1 September 2026.", "card_text": "The lawsuits against Roblox are gathered before one federal judge", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "US Judicial Panel on Multidistrict Litigation (1 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.jpml.uscourts.gov/sites/jpml/files/Pending_MDL_Dockets_By_Actions_Pending-September-1-2026.pdf", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Australia's online safety regulator serves legally enforceable notices on the four platforms, requiring them to explain how they find, prevent and respond to grooming, extremism and bullying.", "card_text": "Australia demands answers from Roblox, Minecraft, Fortnite and Steam", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "eSafety Commissioner, media release (22 April 2026)", "link": "https://www.esafety.gov.au/newsroom/media-releases/esafety-asks-gaming-giants-what-they-are-doing-to-prevent-grooming-and-radicalisation", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Russia's media regulator had blocked Roblox in December 2025, cutting off about 18 million monthly users. It lifts the block in June 2026 after Roblox adds age-group limits on games, and after 63,000 letters from children and parents.", "card_text": "Russia lifts its block on Roblox after six months", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Deseret News, Emily Walker (20 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/roblox-returns-russia-63-000-153547364.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Texas sued Discord in May. In July its attorney general announces an injunction that Discord agreed to. Discord has 90 days to give users in Texas the age checks and default safety settings it already runs in the UK, where the law gave it a deadline.", "card_text": "Discord agrees to a Texas court order on age checks", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Texas Attorney General, press release (24 July 2026)", "link": "https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-secures-historic-legal-victory-forcing-discord-protect-texas-children", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Senators Josh Hawley and Dick Durbin write to Roblox on 12 August, telling it to preserve its records and produce documents by the end of the month. Roblox reported 65,381 cases of suspected child exploitation in 2025, more than double the year before, and says the rise reflects better detection.", "card_text": "The US Senate opens an investigation into Roblox", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PC Gamer, Andy Chalk (14 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/software/platforms/us-senate-launches-investigation-into-roblox-children-on-your-platform-are-hurting-congress-will-not-look-the-other-way/", "source_slug": "pc-gamer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "After the death of a 13-year-old girl, Brazil's data protection authority gives Discord three business days to suspend its livestreaming tools in the country. Discord complies on 17 August. It denies that the death was shown live on its service.", "card_text": "Brazil orders Discord to switch off livestreaming", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Associated Press (17 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/discord-halts-livestreams-brazil-watchdog-222012394.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "After the regulator's own testing found gaps, Roblox gives it an undertaking that a court can enforce, with three months to comply. The regulator says it is the first time it has required an audit by an outside party. Roblox says it believes it already meets its obligations.", "card_text": "Roblox accepts binding commitments and an outside audit in Australia", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "eSafety Commissioner, media release (20 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.esafety.gov.au/newsroom/media-releases/esafety-secures-court-enforceable-undertaking-from-roblox-to-do-more-to-protect-australian-kids-from-grooming-and-sexual-exploitation", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Under an industry code the regulator registered in 2025, Microsoft begins checking age on its Xbox store in August, by selfie, identification, credit card or email. On 8 September Steam starts requiring an Australian credit card to view or buy games rated R18+, and offers no other method.", "card_text": "Australians must prove their age to buy adult-rated games", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PC Gamer, Shaun Prescott (9 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/gaming-industry/steam-now-requires-australian-users-to-have-a-credit-card-to-purchase-r18-games-and-no-a-simple-bank-debit-card-wont-work/", "source_slug": "pc-gamer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Commission adopts a draft KIDS Act on 17 September 2026. Its age thresholds apply to social networking and video-sharing services, but its safety-by-design duties cover games. Nobody may message a child without pre-approval, children do not appear in contact suggestions, cannot be added to groups without agreement, can block anyone anonymously, and may not livestream by default. Enforcement builds on the Digital Services Act, with fines up to 6% of total worldwide annual turnover. It is a proposal and has to pass the Parliament and the member states.", "card_text": "The European Commission adopts a draft law on contact with minors online", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "European Commission, The KIDS Act explained (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/faqs/kids-act-explained", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Los Angeles Superior Court Judge Dean Kitchens rules in September 2026 that neither federal law nor the First Amendment shields Roblox from Los Angeles County's claims, and the case proceeds. The county alleges the platform failed to protect young users from predators and sexual exploitation. It is a ruling on whether the case may be heard, not on whether the allegations are true.", "card_text": "A California judge refuses to dismiss Los Angeles County's case against Roblox", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PocketGamer.biz (25 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/roblox-loses-bid-to-halt-los-angeles-county-child-safety-lawsuit/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "San Diego County sues the mobile advertising company AppLovin at San Diego Superior Court in October 2026, alleging it served children ads for dating services, alcohol, vaping and sexual content in games on devices with parental controls turned on, and that it worked around the tracking limits Apple and Google provide to target children without parental consent. The county also alleges it collected data from children's devices after parents had opted out. AppLovin had not responded when the suit was reported.", "card_text": "A California county sues an ad network over ads shown to children", "year": "2026", "market": "US", "source": "mobilegamer.biz, relaying Bloomberg (6 October 2026)", "link": "https://mobilegamer.biz/applovin-sued-over-allegedly-serving-adult-ads-in-childrens-games/", "source_slug": "mobilegamer-biz" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Roblox's daily users fell to 123 million from a peak of 152 million, its average for the third quarter of 2025. IGN's Tom Phillips writes that age verification has likely added friction for players. Roblox's own finance chief gives a different main cause: the fading of 2025's viral hits and a change to what the platform recommends to children.", "card_text": "Safety measures add friction, and Roblox is losing players", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "IGN, Tom Phillips (6 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.ign.com/articles/roblox-blames-falling-player-numbers-and-in-game-spending-on-its-push-to-recommend-less-slop-to-kids-and-there-being-no-replacement-for-last-years-viral-hit-grow-a-garden", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Shaun Prescott of PC Gamer writes that players fear verification technology as a route to more surveillance. He points to a 2025 breach at Discord's contractor that exposed about 70,000 photos of government identity documents, which users had sent in to appeal a decision about their age.", "card_text": "Age checks create a new store of sensitive data", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PC Gamer, Shaun Prescott (10 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/gaming-industry/australians-must-now-prove-their-age-to-buy-r18-games-on-the-xbox-store/", "source_slug": "pc-gamer" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Steam accepts only a credit card in Australia, and rejects debit cards. Prescott's summary: 'If you don't have a credit card, you don't play adult games.' That excludes adults who cannot get one or choose not to.", "card_text": "A check with one method locks out lawful adults", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PC Gamer, Shaun Prescott (9 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/gaming-industry/steam-now-requires-australian-users-to-have-a-credit-card-to-purchase-r18-games-and-no-a-simple-bank-debit-card-wont-work/", "source_slug": "pc-gamer" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The Texas attorney general's case was that Discord had already solved the problem in Britain, where the law gave it a deadline. The Texas order imports the UK settings whole. Roblox did the same in reverse, trialing its chat age checks in Australia, the Netherlands and New Zealand before applying them worldwide.", "card_text": "One country's rule becomes another's template", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Texas Attorney General, press release (24 July 2026)", "link": "https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-secures-historic-legal-victory-forcing-discord-protect-texas-children", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Roblox disputes the claims against it. It told Australia's regulator it believes it meets its legal obligations, and says the doubling of its reports of suspected exploitation in 2025 reflects better detection rather than more abuse.", "card_text": "Roblox says the numbers show better detection, not more abuse", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PC Gamer, Andy Chalk (14 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/software/platforms/us-senate-launches-investigation-into-roblox-children-on-your-platform-are-hurting-congress-will-not-look-the-other-way/", "source_slug": "pc-gamer" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Ofcom told a House of Lords committee that most fines under the Online Safety Act have not been paid. They total a little over 7 million pounds across 11 providers, mostly small pornography companies. None is a game platform.", "card_text": "Britain's regulator has not fined a game platform, and most of its fines are unpaid", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "The Register, Connor Jones (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.theregister.com/security/2026/09/17/ofcom-discovers-issuing-online-safety-act-fines-is-easier-than-collecting-them/5297110", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Engadget reports children fooling Roblox's age estimation by drawing mustaches and wrinkles on their faces. No regulator has published whether reports of grooming fell after any of these measures. The first independent audit, of Roblox in Australia, has not yet reported.", "card_text": "The checks can be beaten, and nobody has measured whether they work", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Engadget, Mariella Moon (21 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.engadget.com/2178368/meta-snap-roblox-ofcom-uk-child-safety-pledge/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Late November 2026, when Roblox's three months to meet its Australian commitments end and the outside audit follows. The regulator also expects to publish what it learned from its notices to Roblox, Minecraft, Fortnite and Steam later this year.", "card_text": "Roblox's three months in Australia run out", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "eSafety Commissioner, media release (20 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.esafety.gov.au/newsroom/media-releases/esafety-secures-court-enforceable-undertaking-from-roblox-to-do-more-to-protect-australian-kids-from-grooming-and-sexual-exploitation", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The end of December 2026, when Roblox must comply with the duties of a very large online platform under the EU's Digital Services Act, including assessing the risks its service poses to minors.", "card_text": "Roblox's European deadline", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "The Verge, Emma Roth (31 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/986682/openai-chatgpt-eu-dsa", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "indias-real-money-gaming-ban", "name": "India has outlawed games played for money", "stage": "Dominant", "category": "Regulation, safety & age", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "rewriting-rules", "horizon_line": "A natural experiment: regulation can delete a whole category overnight.", "markets": [ "IN" ], "what_it_is": "The law took effect on 1 May 2026, but operators closed their paid games within days of its passage in August 2025, as banks and payment companies cut them off. Dream11 said 95% of its revenue had gone, and Games24x7 laid off about 70% of its staff. The operators' challenge to the law is before the Supreme Court. Lumikai estimates that one in three players moved to offshore sites, a figure its own reporters treat as soft.", "why_it_matters": "India had a large, fast-growing market for online games played for money, such as fantasy cricket and rummy. In August 2025 parliament banned them all. It is a rare test of what happens when a government removes a whole category of games.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "India bans real-money gaming, threatening a $23 billion industry", "link": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/08/20/india-bans-real-money-gaming-threatening-a-23-billion-industry", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "Challenge to the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025", "link": "https://www.scobserver.in/cases/challenge-to-the-promotion-and-regulation-of-online-gaming-act-2025/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "CCI Closes Winzo's Google Antitrust Case After Money Gaming Ban", "link": "https://respawn.outlookindia.com/gaming/gaming-news/cci-closes-winzos-google-antitrust-case-after-money-gaming-ban", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Oct 2026", "where_to_follow": "Reuters India tech desk, MediaNama, AGB (Asia Gaming Brief), Indian Supreme Court proceedings", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "", "series_note": "", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "The law took effect on 1 May 2026, but operators closed their paid games within days of its passage in August 2025, as banks and payment companies cut them off. Dream11 said 95% of its revenue had gone, and Games24x7 laid off about 70% of its staff. The operators' challenge to the law is before the Supreme Court. ", { "text": "Lumikai", "href": "https://www.lumikai.com/post/india-s-interactive-media-economy-state-of-interactive-media-report-2025" }, " estimates that one in three players moved to offshore sites, a figure its own reporters treat as soft." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Definition", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Real-money gaming means playing for actual cash: you put money in, and you might win money back. In India, the biggest version of this is fantasy sports, where players build imaginary teams from real athletes and get paid based on how those athletes perform in real games.", "card_text": "What is real-money gaming?", "year": "", "market": "", "source": "", "link": "", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "From October 2023 India charges its 28% goods and services tax on the full amount a player deposits, not on the operator's cut. The industry's yearly survey by FICCI and EY finds revenue from games played for money falling 6% in 2024, to 179 billion rupees.", "card_text": "A 28% tax on every deposit lands first", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "AnimationXpress, on the FICCI-EY report for 2024", "link": "https://www.animationxpress.com/latest-news/ficci-ey-report-2025-indias-online-gamers-base-expands-to-488-million-in-2024/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Bill passes the Lok Sabha on 20 August and becomes law within days. Offering a money game carries up to three years in prison and a fine of 10 million rupees. Promoting one carries up to two. TechCrunch puts the affected companies' combined revenue at about $3.6 billion and their combined valuation at $23 billion.", "card_text": "India's lower house passes a ban on online games played for money", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "TechCrunch, Jagmeet Singh (20 August 2025)", "link": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/08/20/india-bans-real-money-gaming-threatening-a-23-billion-industry", "source_slug": "techcrunch" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Harsh Jain, who runs Dream11, the largest fantasy sports company, says the law has removed 95% of its revenue and all of its profit. He promises there will be no layoffs.", "card_text": "Dream11's founder says 95% of its revenue is gone", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "People Matters, Samriddhi Srivastava (26 August 2025)", "link": "https://www.peoplematters.in/news/leadership/dream11-vows-no-layoffs-after-real-money-gaming-ban-wipes-95percent-revenue-43138", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Games24x7, which runs the rummy and fantasy apps RummyCircle and My11Circle, prepares to lay off about 500 staff, roughly 70% of its workforce. It is one of several operators to make deep cuts within weeks of the law passing.", "card_text": "Games24x7 lays off about 500 people", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Inc42 (10 September 2025)", "link": "https://inc42.com/buzz/after-rmg-ban-games24x7-to-layoffs-500-employees/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "India's financial crime agency searches real-money gaming companies in November, freezes 5.23 billion rupees, most of it WinZO's, and arrests WinZO's two founders.", "card_text": "Investigators raid gaming firms and arrest WinZO's founders", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Outlook Business, Shashank Bhatt (22 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.outlookbusiness.com/in-depth/year-ender-from-unicorns-to-ed-raids-how-real-money-gaming-unravelled-in-2025", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Dream11's parent company breaks into eight independent units. About 800 of Dream11's roughly 1,000 staff move to the new units, and the company says the new Dream11 needs fewer than 200 people.", "card_text": "Dream Sports splits itself into eight companies", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Outlook Business (12 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.outlookbusiness.com/amp/story/start-up/news/dream-sports-splits-into-eight-independent-start-ups-after-real-money-gaming-ban", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Storyboard18 reports in January that the government has not yet brought the Act into force. The operators had already stopped: they shut their paid games voluntarily, and banks and payment companies had cut them off. One, Head Digital Works, has gone from 606 staff to 178.", "card_text": "Five months on, the law is still not in force", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Storyboard18, Imran Fazal (20 January 2026)", "link": "https://www.storyboard18.com/gaming-news/five-months-on-proga-remains-unnotified-sc-to-hear-petitions-challenging-gaming-law-on-jan-21-87890.htm", "source_slug": "storyboard18-gaming" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The government publishes the rules in April, and the Act and the rules come into force on 1 May 2026. They create the Online Gaming Authority of India, which registers games and decides which category each falls in.", "card_text": "The law takes effect, with a new regulator", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Akashvani (1 May 2026)", "link": "https://newsonair.gov.in/promotion-regulation-of-online-gaming-rules-2026-comes-into-force/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "In a separate tax case, the Supreme Court rules that online games played for stakes are betting and gambling, and that the 28% tax applies to full deposits. Outlook Business puts the tax demands for past years that now stand at nearly 2.5 trillion rupees.", "card_text": "The Supreme Court calls staked online games betting and gambling", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Outlook Business (28 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.outlookbusiness.com/corporate/real-money-gaming-companies-brace-for-next-move-after-sc-gst-ruling", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A year after the law passed, Dream11 stops running paid contests altogether, refunds subscriptions within 72 hours, and says it will focus on fan content and social play.", "card_text": "Dream11 ends its last paid contests", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Storyboard18, Chehneet Kaur (22 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.storyboard18.com/advertising/dream11-pulls-plug-on-paid-contests-pivots-to-social-gameplay-amid-rmg-crackdown-108486.htm", "source_slug": "storyboard18-gaming" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "WinZO had complained in 2022 that Google's app store admitted fantasy sports and rummy but not other money games. It asks to withdraw, and the Competition Commission closes the case without ruling on it. The ban, the order says, has left no lawful real-money gaming market on Google Play or Google Ads.", "card_text": "India's competition regulator closes WinZO's case against Google", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Outlook Respawn, Probaho Santra (10 September 2026)", "link": "https://respawn.outlookindia.com/gaming/gaming-news/cci-closes-winzos-google-antitrust-case-after-money-gaming-ban", "source_slug": "outlook-respawn" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "India's GST Council meets on 8 October 2026, the meeting the industry had expected to take up the legacy tax demands against real-money gaming operators. Its published recommendations cover registration, returns, refunds and adjudication, and do not mention gaming, betting or actionable claims. The demands stand, against companies that can no longer legally take the bets they are taxed on.", "card_text": "The tax council meets and leaves the industry's old tax bills alone", "year": "2026", "market": "IN", "source": "Recommendations of the 57th Meeting of the GST Council, Press Information Bureau (8 October 2026)", "link": "https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2320934&lang=1®=48", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Lumikai, an Indian games investor, reports that one in three people who played for money moved to offshore platforms after the ban, spending up to 10,000 rupees a month with no regulator watching. The industry had warned of exactly this before the law passed.", "card_text": "A third of players may have gone to offshore sites", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Lumikai, State of India Interactive Media (March 2026)", "link": "https://www.lumikai.com/post/india-s-interactive-media-economy-state-of-interactive-media-report-2025", "source_slug": "lumikai-state-of-india-interactive-media-and-gaming-report" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "With money games gone, Lumikai sizes what remains of India's games market at $1.5 billion for 2025, up 17%. Some studio heads argue the ban lets Indian developers concentrate on making games people pay for and come back to.", "card_text": "The rest of Indian games is growing", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Outlook Respawn, Vignesh Raghuram (23 March 2026)", "link": "https://respawn.outlookindia.com/gaming/gaming-news/lumikai-india-gaming-market-1-5-billion-rmg-ban-2025", "source_slug": "outlook-respawn" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Companies that cannot legally earn still face tax claims for earlier years that run into tens of thousands of crores of rupees, meaning hundreds of billions. One operator, Gameskraft, carries demands of roughly 210 billion rupees.", "card_text": "An industry that can no longer trade still owes the tax", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Storyboard18, Chehneet Kaur (7 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.storyboard18.com/gaming-news/indias-gaming-tax-battle-gst-council-to-address-legacy-dues-ws-l-109899.htm", "source_slug": "storyboard18-gaming" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The competition case against Google shows how far the effects reach. The regulator found it could no longer order Google to carry apps that are now illegal, so a four-year dispute ended with no finding either way.", "card_text": "Other disputes collapse along with the market", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Outlook Respawn, Probaho Santra (10 September 2026)", "link": "https://respawn.outlookindia.com/gaming/gaming-news/cci-closes-winzos-google-antitrust-case-after-money-gaming-ban", "source_slug": "outlook-respawn" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "This page mostly counts what the ban cost. The government's case is that the cost was worth paying. It told the Supreme Court that the sector involved foreign-controlled companies, opaque algorithms and manipulative design that threatened public order, financial integrity and vulnerable users. One petition before the court alleges 1,023 suicides linked to online betting in a single state, Telangana.", "card_text": "The government argues the losses were the point", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Storyboard18, Imran Fazal (20 January 2026)", "link": "https://www.storyboard18.com/gaming-news/five-months-on-proga-remains-unnotified-sc-to-hear-petitions-challenging-gaming-law-on-jan-21-87890.htm", "source_slug": "storyboard18-gaming" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Revenue fell 6% in 2024, before any ban, after the tax change. And the size of what was lost is disputed: FICCI and EY count 179 billion rupees in 2024, about $2.1 billion, where TechCrunch cites $3.6 billion. Nobody has published a figure for revenue or tax collected since the ban.", "card_text": "The sector was already shrinking, and nobody agrees how big it was", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "AnimationXpress, on the FICCI-EY report for 2024", "link": "https://www.animationxpress.com/latest-news/ficci-ey-report-2025-indias-online-gamers-base-expands-to-488-million-in-2024/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Outlook Respawn notes that Lumikai's one in three is inferred, from a panel of about 100,000 phones, the use of browsers that hide a user's location, and traffic to offshore sites. Its own write-up says players 'may have migrated'.", "card_text": "The offshore figure is an estimate", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Outlook Respawn, Vignesh Raghuram (23 March 2026)", "link": "https://respawn.outlookindia.com/gaming/gaming-news/lumikai-india-gaming-market-1-5-billion-rmg-ban-2025", "source_slug": "outlook-respawn" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The GST Council met on 8 October 2026 and its recommendations covered process reforms alone, with no mention of gaming, betting or actionable claims. The legacy tax demands against the operators are still outstanding and the Council has published no date for taking them up.", "card_text": "Whether the tax council returns to the legacy dues", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Recommendations of the 57th Meeting of the GST Council, Press Information Bureau (8 October 2026)", "link": "https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2320934&lang=1®=48", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "March 2027, when the FICCI and EY survey usually appears. It will carry the first figures for a full year with no legal real-money gaming. The Supreme Court's ruling on whether the ban is constitutional is also pending, with no date set.", "card_text": "The first full year without money games", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "EY India, on the FICCI-EY report (March 2026)", "link": "https://www.ey.com/en_in/insights/media-entertainment/stories-scale-and-impact-unlocking-india-s-m-e-economy", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "the-loot-box-age-gate", "name": "Regulators are age-gating loot boxes", "stage": "Perennial", "category": "Regulation, safety & age", "horizon": "perennial", "horizon_group": null, "horizon_line": "A recurring regulatory cycle that follows monetization wherever it goes.", "markets": [ "AU", "BE", "BR", "DE", "ES", "EU", "Global", "JP", "KR", "NL", "PL", "UK", "US" ], "what_it_is": "Brazil banned loot boxes in games children can reach in March 2026, and Belgium has treated them as gambling since 2018. South Korea requires the odds to be published, and in the first study of the law 84% of top-earning games with loot boxes did so. Australia rates such games M at minimum. From June 2026 PEGI rates new ones 16 across most of Europe, while Germany rates case by case through its own body. The Netherlands ruled in 2022 that loot boxes are not gambling, and the UK and Japan rely on the industry's own rules. So the same game carries different ratings, and different obligations, depending on where it is sold.", "why_it_matters": "Loot boxes are paid items with random contents. Some countries ban them, some make publishers show the odds, and some say they are not gambling. Age ratings are the approach that is spreading, and publishers now change or withdraw games market by market.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "All games with loot boxes in them will be rated minimum PEGI 16, starting this summer", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/all-games-with-loot-boxes-in-them-will-be-rated-minimum-pegi-16-starting-this-summer/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "South Korea's loot box law shows strong results, but players still left in the dark", "link": "https://techxplore.com/news/2025-09-south-korea-loot-law-strong.html", "type": "Research", "format": "" }, { "source": "TIL, in Brazil, most gacha games are +18 due to the loot box mechanic", "link": "https://x.com/genshinmains_/status/2091189145381323092", "type": "Community", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Oct 2026", "where_to_follow": "Leon Y. Xiao's annual 'Loot Box State of Play' papers, Gaming Law Review, PEGI/ESRB notices, national regulators (Belgian Gaming Commission, Kansspelautoriteit)", "status_label": "Regulation", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "", "series_note": "", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "Brazil banned loot boxes in games children can reach in March 2026, and Belgium has treated them as gambling since 2018. South Korea requires the odds to be published, and in ", { "text": "the first study of the law", "href": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12583229/" }, " 84% of top-earning games with loot boxes did so. Australia rates such games M at minimum. From June 2026 ", { "text": "PEGI", "href": "https://pegi.info/news/pegi-expands-age-rating-criteria-interactive-risk-categories" }, " rates new ones 16 across most of Europe, while Germany rates case by case through its own body. The Netherlands ruled in 2022 that loot boxes are not gambling, and the UK and Japan rely on the industry's own rules. So the same game carries different ratings, and different obligations, depending on where it is sold." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Definition", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "A loot box is a mystery package inside a game. You pay for it with real money or in-game currency, but you do not know what is inside until you open it. People have argued for years about whether paying for a surprise prize counts as gambling. Governments have stopped waiting for that argument to end and are starting to set rules, such as age limits, on their own.", "card_text": "What are loot boxes?", "year": "", "market": "", "source": "PEGI", "link": "", "source_slug": "pegi" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Star Wars Battlefront II's paid loot boxes set off what the Belgian regulator later called a worldwide conflict over paying to progress inside a game.", "card_text": "Battlefront II sets off the row", "year": "2017", "market": "", "source": "Belgian Gaming Commission, Research Report on Loot Boxes (April 2018)", "link": "https://gamingcommission.paddlecms.net/sites/default/files/2021-08/onderzoeksrapport-loot-boxen-Engels-publicatie.pdf", "source_slug": "belgian-gaming-commission" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Belgian Gaming Commission found the paid loot boxes in Overwatch, FIFA 18 and Counter-Strike: Global Offensive to be games of chance, and said operators who keep selling them risk prosecution.", "card_text": "Belgium calls paid loot boxes games of chance", "year": "2018", "market": "", "source": "Belgian Gaming Commission, Research Report on Loot Boxes (April 2018)", "link": "https://gamingcommission.paddlecms.net/sites/default/files/2021-08/onderzoeksrapport-loot-boxen-Engels-publicatie.pdf", "source_slug": "belgian-gaming-commission" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Netherlands' highest administrative court decided EA's appeal in its favor, finding that FIFA's packs are not a separate game that can be assessed as gambling. The regulator's 2018 position and its fine fell with the ruling.", "card_text": "Dutch court sides with EA", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "Leon Y. Xiao, Loot Box State of Play 2022 (GamesIndustry.biz)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/loot-box-state-of-play-2022-regulatory-and-policy-research-developments", "source_slug": "loot-box-state-of-play-leon-y-xiaos-annual-regulatory-review" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The UK Government's response to its loot box consultation declined to bring paid loot boxes inside the definition of gambling, and asked the industry to keep under-18s from buying them without parental consent.", "card_text": "UK declines to call loot boxes gambling", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "Leon Y. Xiao, Loot Box State of Play 2022 (GamesIndustry.biz)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/loot-box-state-of-play-2022-regulatory-and-policy-research-developments", "source_slug": "loot-box-state-of-play-leon-y-xiaos-annual-regulatory-review" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Under rules updated for 2023, Germany's USK rated every game with loot boxes it reviewed that year USK 12 at minimum, including games whose earlier annual editions had been USK 0.", "card_text": "USK rates loot box games 12+", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Leon Y. Xiao, Loot Box State of Play 2024 (GamesIndustry.biz)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/loot-box-state-of-play-2024-another-trip-around-the-world-of-regulation", "source_slug": "loot-box-state-of-play-leon-y-xiaos-annual-regulatory-review" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "South Korea's amendment to the Game Industry Promotion Act, adopted in March 2023, took effect on 22 March 2024 and made probability disclosure for paid random items a legal requirement.", "card_text": "Korea's disclosure law takes effect", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Leon Y. Xiao, Loot Box State of Play 2023 (Stanford TTLF Working Paper 110)", "link": "https://law.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/TTLF-WP-110-Xiao.pdf", "source_slug": "loot-box-state-of-play-leon-y-xiaos-annual-regulatory-review" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Australia's new classifications took effect on 22 September 2024: a minimum M for games with paid loot boxes, and R 18+ for games with simulated gambling.", "card_text": "Australia sets a minimum M", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Australian Classification Board", "link": "https://www.classification.gov.au/about-us/media-and-news/news/new-classifications-for-gambling-content-video-games", "source_slug": "australian-classification-board-computer-games" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "In the first 100 days of the disclosure law, South Korea's games regulator monitored 1,255 cases and asked for corrections in 266 of them. Of those, 185 were fixed and five were passed up for binding orders.", "card_text": "Korea's regulator asks for 266 corrections in 100 days", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Leon Y. Xiao and Solip Park, Acta Psychologica (2025)", "link": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12583229/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Federal Trade Commission's settlement requires the game to block under-16s from buying loot boxes without a parent's consent and to show prices in real money. The commissioner who now chairs the agency dissented from its wider loot box counts.", "card_text": "The US regulator settles with Genshin Impact's maker", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Leon Y. Xiao, Loot Box State of Play 2025 (GamesIndustry.biz)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/loot-box-state-of-play-2025-a-ban-in-brazil-non-compliance-in-the-uk-and-more", "source_slug": "loot-box-state-of-play-leon-y-xiaos-annual-regulatory-review" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "PEGI had rated Balatro, a card game with no real money in it, 18 because it teaches poker hands. On appeal it cut the rating to 12, citing the game's 'mitigating fantastical elements', and said it would keep 18 for games that simulate realistic casino gambling.", "card_text": "PEGI lowers Balatro from 18 to 12 on appeal", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr (24 February 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/balatro-s-contentious-pegi-18-rating-has-been-amended-thanks-to-mitigating-fantastical-elements-", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Brazil's Law 15211 came into force on 17 March 2026, banning loot boxes in games aimed at or likely to be accessed by under-18s, with fines of up to 10% of Brazilian revenue.", "card_text": "Brazil's loot box ban takes effect", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Law 15211 (Brazil)", "link": "https://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2023-2026/2025/lei/l15211.htm", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "PEGI, the ratings body used across most of Europe, announces on 12 March 2026 that newly submitted games with paid random items will be rated 16 by default from June, and in some cases 18. Germany rates its games separately and is not covered.", "card_text": "PEGI moves paid random items to 16+", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PEGI (12 March 2026)", "link": "https://pegi.info/news/pegi-expands-age-rating-criteria-interactive-risk-categories", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Under the draft KIDS Act adopted on 17 September 2026, app stores must age-rate every app, including videogames, with a published methodology, must not let children access or buy apps inappropriate for their age, and must carry the EU age verification app. It would place a legal duty on the stores rather than on the rating bodies, alongside the existing PEGI and USK systems. It is a proposal.", "card_text": "The European Commission proposes that app stores age-rate every game", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "European Commission, The KIDS Act explained (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/faqs/kids-act-explained", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "In force since 17 March 2026. A game under-18s can access must switch paid loot boxes off for players not proven adult, or offer a version without them. Fines reach 10% of a company's Brazilian revenue.", "card_text": "In force", "year": "2026", "market": "BR", "source": "Law 15211 (Brazil), via the Justice Ministry's ECA Digital FAQ", "link": "https://www.gov.br/mj/pt-br/assuntos/sua-protecao/sedigi/eca-digital/perguntas_respostas_eca_digital_30072026.pdf", "source_slug": "classind-mjsp" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Publishers must disclose the odds of paid random items. The regulator asked for 266 corrections in the law's first 100 days, and on 1 October 2026 it went further: after Soul Guide ignored six corrective requests, GRAC gave public notice that the game's distribution in Korea could be restricted, and is pursuing penalties with the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism.", "card_text": "In force", "year": "2026", "market": "KR", "source": "GRAC, via Inven Global (2 October 2026)", "link": "https://www.invenglobal.com/articles/26753/grac-warns-of-potential-domestic-distribution-ban-for-soul-guide-over-loot-box-disclosure-violations", "source_slug": "grac" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Paid loot boxes count as games of chance and are banned without a license. The ban has proved hard to enforce.", "card_text": "In force", "year": "2018", "market": "BE", "source": "Belgian Gaming Commission", "link": "https://www.gamingcommission.be/en/publications/reports", "source_slug": "belgian-gaming-commission" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Games with paid loot boxes are rated M at minimum, and games with simulated gambling are restricted to R 18+.", "card_text": "In force", "year": "2024", "market": "AU", "source": "Australian Classification Board", "link": "https://www.classification.gov.au/about-us/media-and-news/news/new-classifications-for-gambling-content-video-games", "source_slug": "australian-classification-board-computer-games" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Germany rates games through its own body, the USK, not PEGI. Since January 2023 the USK weighs loot boxes when it sets a rating and labels them on the box. EA Sports FC went from USK 0 to USK 12. The USK states no fixed minimum.", "card_text": "Rated case by case", "year": "2023", "market": "DE", "source": "USK, on the new youth protection law (2023)", "link": "https://usk.de/usk-pressemitteilung-umsetzung-neues-jugendschutzgesetz/", "source_slug": "usk" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "No law covers loot boxes. The government declined to legislate in 2022 and relies on the industry's own principles, which ask for parental consent before under-18s buy. PEGI's 16 rating applies to new games from June 2026.", "card_text": "Self-regulation, plus PEGI 16", "year": "2026", "market": "UK", "source": "Ukie, loot box principles (18 July 2023)", "link": "https://ukie.org.uk/news/new-loot-box-principles-agreed-by-industry", "source_slug": "ukie" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "From June 2026 PEGI rates newly submitted games with paid random items 16 by default in the countries that use it, which do not include Germany.", "card_text": "In force", "year": "2026", "market": "EU", "source": "PEGI", "link": "https://pegi.info/news/pegi-expands-age-rating-criteria-interactive-risk-categories", "source_slug": "pegi" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Publishers cap costs or display odds under the industry body JOGA's self-regulation guideline, which sets no age threshold.", "card_text": "No age gate", "year": "2012", "market": "JP", "source": "JOGA", "link": "https://japanonlinegame.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/JOGA_declaration_2024.pdf", "source_slug": "joga" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The 2022 Council of State ruling found packs cannot be assessed as a separate game, so loot boxes are not prohibited gambling.", "card_text": "Not gambling", "year": "2022", "market": "NL", "source": "Kansspelautoriteit (KSA)", "link": "", "source_slug": "kansspelautoriteit-loot-box-enforcement-and-case-record" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Suits calling loot boxes gambling have mostly failed, though some remain live.", "card_text": "Contested", "year": "2024", "market": "US", "source": "Leon Y. Xiao, Loot Box State of Play 2024 (GamesIndustry.biz)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/loot-box-state-of-play-2024-another-trip-around-the-world-of-regulation", "source_slug": "loot-box-state-of-play-leon-y-xiaos-annual-regulatory-review" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A ban on minors' access to loot boxes sits in a wider bill on protecting children online, first approved by the cabinet in June 2024. Its drafting committee was set up in April 2026, with the stated aim of passing it by the end of the year.", "card_text": "A bill, not yet law", "year": "2026", "market": "ES", "source": "ConSalud (14 April 2026)", "link": "https://www.consalud.es/politica/la-ley-de-proteccion-de-menores-en-el-entorno-digital-aspira-a-pasar-de-nivel-el-congreso-constituye-su-ponencia.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Members of parliament filed a bill in December 2025 to treat loot boxes as gambling for adults only, requiring a permit. Seven of them withdrew their signatures in March 2026 after a letter from the state lottery company.", "card_text": "A bill, stalled", "year": "2026", "market": "PL", "source": "Bankier.pl, relaying PAP (18 March 2026)", "link": "https://www.bankier.pl/wiadomosc/Hazardowa-batalia-o-lootboksy-Ostre-pismo-Totalizatora-Sportowego-wstrzasnelo-projektem-9099961.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "EA Sports FC 25 received four different age ratings across the world because of loot box rules: ESRB E, PEGI 3, ACB M and USK 12. Companies have also removed loot boxes from Belgian versions of games, or withdrawn games from Belgium, to avoid the law there.", "card_text": "Same game, four ratings", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Leon Y. Xiao, Loot Box State of Play 2024 (GamesIndustry.biz)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/loot-box-state-of-play-2024-another-trip-around-the-world-of-regulation", "source_slug": "loot-box-state-of-play-leon-y-xiaos-annual-regulatory-review" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "In the first study of the law, 84.4% of the top-earning Korean iPhone games with loot boxes disclosed their odds. The same researchers had found 64.0% in the UK and 34.9% in the Netherlands, where disclosure is left to the industry. China, which also requires it by law, scored 96.9%.", "card_text": "Korea's law gets most games to publish their odds", "year": "2024", "market": "KR", "source": "Leon Y. Xiao and Solip Park, Acta Psychologica (2025)", "link": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12583229/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Only 40.8% of the Korean games that disclosed their odds made them reasonably easy to find. The study looked at games, not at players, so nobody has measured whether players read or understand the odds.", "card_text": "Published odds are not the same as odds a player sees", "year": "2024", "market": "KR", "source": "Leon Y. Xiao and Solip Park, Acta Psychologica (2025)", "link": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12583229/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Leon Xiao, who reviews loot box rules each year, argues that bans for under-18s are almost certainly unenforceable. Belgium's failed, he writes, because its regulator had little or no resources to monitor and enforce the law.", "card_text": "Bans have not been enforced", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Leon Y. Xiao, Loot Box State of Play 2025 (GamesIndustry.biz)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/loot-box-state-of-play-2025-a-ban-in-brazil-non-compliance-in-australia-a-worrying-wait-for-uk-legislation-and-more", "source_slug": "loot-box-state-of-play-leon-y-xiaos-annual-regulatory-review" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "New York's attorney general sued Valve in February 2026, calling its loot boxes illegal gambling, and a motion to dismiss is pending. The federal regulator has brought no loot box case since January 2025, so the states are where the US position is being tested.", "card_text": "New York's case against Valve", "year": "2026", "market": "US", "source": "New York Attorney General, press release (25 February 2026)", "link": "https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2026/attorney-general-james-sues-game-developer-promoting-illegal-gambling-through", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The last quarter of 2026, when the European Commission's work program schedules its proposal for a Digital Fairness Act. A committee of the European Parliament asked in October 2025 for it to cover loot boxes. The Commission has not said whether it will. The separate KIDS Act it adopted on 17 September 2026 requires games to be safe by design with no spending traps. Whether that reaches paid random items is unsettled.", "card_text": "Two EU instruments, and paid random items sit between them", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "European Commission, The KIDS Act explained (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/faqs/kids-act-explained", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "playtime-caps-and-age-gates-for-minors", "name": "Governments are weighing legal caps on children's playtime", "stage": "Perennial", "category": "Regulation, safety & age", "horizon": "perennial", "horizon_group": null, "horizon_line": "Comes back every time a new worry about children and screens arrives.", "markets": [ "BR", "CN", "EU", "IN", "JP", "KR", "US", "VN" ], "what_it_is": "China allows under-18s three hours of online games a week, and Vietnam three hours a day across one company's games. South Korea repealed its midnight curfew in 2021. In 2026 the US House passed a bill requiring a parental timer, and the European Commission proposed time-management tools, but neither sets an hour limit or is law. On whether caps work, the largest study found no drop in heavy play after China's first rule but could not separate children from adults, while a later survey found children playing less.", "why_it_matters": "Only China and Vietnam cap children's playtime by law, checking every player's identity to enforce it. Elsewhere the idea has become advice or parental tools. The US and EU are now drafting rules, so whether caps work now matters, and the evidence is split.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Tracking Efforts To Restrict Or Ban Teens from Social Media Across the Globe", "link": "https://www.techpolicy.press/tracking-efforts-to-restrict-or-ban-teens-from-social-media-across-the-globe/", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "No evidence that Chinese playtime mandates reduced heavy gaming", "link": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-023-01669-8", "type": "Research", "format": "" }, { "source": "Age verification = Digital ID", "link": "https://www.reddit.com/r/playstation/comments/1vtgdzh/age_verification_digital_id/", "type": "Community", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "Niko Partners China/SEA research, TechNode, AGB, national regulator announcements (NPPA, Vietnam MIC); see also the age-checks row for verification mechanics", "status_label": "The rule", "measure_label": "What it says", "row_label": "", "series_label": "", "series_note": "", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "China allows under-18s three hours of online games a week, and Vietnam three hours a day across one company's games. South Korea repealed its midnight curfew in 2021. In 2026 the US House passed a bill requiring a parental timer, and the European Commission proposed time-management tools, but neither sets an hour limit or is law. On whether caps work, ", { "text": "the largest study", "href": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10593605/" }, " found no drop in heavy play after China's first rule but could not separate children from adults, while ", { "text": "a later survey", "href": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12486258/" }, " found children playing less." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Under-18s may play online games only from 8pm to 9pm on Fridays, Saturdays, Sundays and public holidays. Every player must log in under their real name, which the publisher checks against state records.", "card_text": "Three hours a week, enforced by ID", "year": "2021", "market": "CN", "source": "National Press and Publication Administration (30 August 2021)", "link": "https://www.nppa.gov.cn/xxfb/tzgs/202108/t20210830_666285.html", "source_slug": "nppa" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Since 25 December 2024, under-18s are limited to 60 minutes on any one game and 180 minutes a day across all the games of one company. A draft published in July 2026 would cut under-16s to 60 minutes a day in total.", "card_text": "An hour per game, three hours a day", "year": "2024", "market": "VN", "source": "DFDL, legal update on Decree 147", "link": "https://www.dfdl.com/insights/legal-and-tax-updates/vietnam-more-requirements-on-internet-service-and-online-information/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "South Korea blocked under-16s from online games between midnight and 6am from 2011. The National Assembly voted to scrap the law in November 2021. A voluntary system remains, in which a parent or the child can ask a publisher to block chosen hours.", "card_text": "Curfew repealed", "year": "2021", "market": "KR", "source": "The Korea Herald (November 2021)", "link": "https://www.koreaherald.com/article/2725997", "source_slug": "korea-herald" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A bill the House passed in June 2026 would make game companies give parents a tool to limit play time for users they know are under 17. It sets no limit itself, and it is not law: the Senate has not taken it up.", "card_text": "No cap: a bill would require a parental timer", "year": "2026", "market": "US", "source": "KIDS Act, H.R. 7757, as passed by the House (29 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BILLS-119hr7757eh/html/BILLS-119hr7757eh.htm", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Kagawa prefecture's 2020 ordinance advises under-18s to play no more than 60 minutes a day on weekdays and 90 on weekends. It carries no penalty, and a court upheld it in 2022.", "card_text": "One prefecture, advisory only", "year": "2020", "market": "JP", "source": "Otaku USA, Danica Davidson (30 August 2022)", "link": "https://otakuusamagazine.com/japanese-court-says-gaming-addiction-ordinance-is-constitutional/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The government said in 2022 that it was not considering limits on play time. The online gaming rules that took effect in May 2026 ban games played for money and require age checks and parental controls, but do not limit recreational play.", "card_text": "No cap", "year": "2026", "market": "IN", "source": "Outlook Respawn, Abhimannu Das (13 May 2026)", "link": "https://respawn.outlookindia.com/gaming/gaming-originals/does-india-need-a-digital-addiction-policy", "source_slug": "outlook-respawn" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The European Commission announced a proposed law on 17 September 2026 that covers online games. It would require effective tools for managing time, to protect school time and children's core sleep hours. It is a proposal, not yet law.", "card_text": "Proposed: time-management tools", "year": "2026", "market": "EU", "source": "European Commission, The KIDS Act explained (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/faqs/kids-act-explained", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Since 17 March 2026, games and other online services that children are likely to use must give parents tools to limit and monitor time of use, with default settings at the highest level of protection. The law sets no limit on play itself.", "card_text": "No cap: parental time limits required", "year": "2026", "market": "BR", "source": "Law 15211 (Brazil), article 17", "link": "https://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2023-2026/2025/lei/l15211.htm", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "South Korea's shutdown law takes effect in November 2011. It blocks under-16s from online games on computers between midnight and 6am.", "card_text": "South Korea bars under-16s from online games after midnight", "year": "2011", "market": "", "source": "Kim & Chang (25 August 2021)", "link": "https://www.kimchang.com/en/insights/detail.kc?sch_section=4&idx=23815", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Tencent limits under-12s to one hour a day and 13 to 17 year olds to two hours on Honor of Kings, its most popular mobile game, after reports of children spending thousands of dollars in it.", "card_text": "Tencent caps children's play on its biggest game before any law requires it", "year": "2017", "market": "", "source": "Niko Partners (11 July 2017)", "link": "https://nikopartners.com/honor-kings-restricts-play-minors/", "source_slug": "niko-partners" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "China's games regulator requires every player to register under their real name. Under-18s get 90 minutes a day, three hours on holidays, and no play between 10pm and 8am. It also caps what children can spend.", "card_text": "China sets its first national limit on children's play", "year": "2019", "market": "", "source": "National Press and Publication Administration (2019)", "link": "https://www.nppa.gov.cn/xxfb/tzgs/201911/t20191119_666184.html", "source_slug": "nppa" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "From 1 September 2021, under-18s may play online games only from 8pm to 9pm on Fridays, weekends and public holidays.", "card_text": "China cuts the limit to three hours a week", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "National Press and Publication Administration (30 August 2021)", "link": "https://www.nppa.gov.cn/xxfb/tzgs/202108/t20210830_666285.html", "source_slug": "nppa" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "South Korea's National Assembly votes to abolish the shutdown law. The Korea Herald's editorial says there was little if any scientific evidence that it worked.", "card_text": "South Korea votes to scrap its curfew", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "The Korea Herald (November 2021)", "link": "https://www.koreaherald.com/article/2725997", "source_slug": "korea-herald" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Researchers analyze 7 billion hours of play recorded by game software in China. The share of weeks with heavy play was 0.77% before the 2019 rule and 0.88% after. The data carried no ages, so the study could not separate children from adults, and it covered the 2019 rule, not the stricter one of 2021.", "card_text": "The largest study of China's first cap finds no drop in heavy play", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Zendle and colleagues, Nature Human Behavior (2023)", "link": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10593605/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Decree 147 takes effect on 25 December 2024. Under-18s are limited to 60 minutes on any one game and 180 minutes a day across one company's games, with accounts tied to a phone number or identity number.", "card_text": "Vietnam's limits take effect", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "DFDL, legal update on Decree 147", "link": "https://www.dfdl.com/insights/legal-and-tax-updates/vietnam-more-requirements-on-internet-service-and-online-information/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The industry association's yearly survey reports that 71.0% of minors play less than three hours a week. Of the children who went over the limit, 73.4% did it by using a parent's or older relative's account or identity.", "card_text": "China's games industry says seven in ten children play under three hours a week", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "China.com, on the games industry association's 2025 report (22 December 2025)", "link": "https://tech.china.com/articles/20251222/202512221785455.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The House passes the KIDS Act by 267 votes to 117. Its games section would make companies offer parents a tool to limit play time, and switch chat protections on by default for children. TechPolicy.Press calls its prospects in the Senate dim.", "card_text": "The US House passes a bill with a parental timer for games", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "TechPolicy.Press, Tim Bernard (30 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.techpolicy.press/bipartisan-smorgasbord-of-childrens-online-safety-legislation-passes-the-house/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Vietnam's broadcasting authority publishes a draft that would limit under-16s to 60 minutes of games a day in total, down from 180.", "card_text": "Vietnam proposes cutting under-16s to an hour a day", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "VnExpress, Trong Dat (24 July 2026)", "link": "https://e.vnexpress.net/news/tech/vietnam-innovation/vietnam-considers-one-hour-daily-online-gaming-limit-for-children-5101339.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Commission announces a proposed law on children's safety online that covers online games and game platforms. It asks for age checks and for tools that protect school time and sleep. It does not set a limit on hours.", "card_text": "The European Commission proposes time tools for games", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "European Commission, The KIDS Act explained (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/faqs/kids-act-explained", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The new rule cut a child's weekly allowance from 13.5 hours to 3. Niko Partners points out that children were already a sliver of the business: Tencent had said only 2.6% of its revenue came from players under 16. The risk it sees is longer term, in a generation that never forms the habit, and in esports, which needs young talent.", "card_text": "The cap costs the big companies little today", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "Niko Partners (30 August 2021)", "link": "https://nikopartners.com/additional-restrictions-imposed-on-chinese-youth-gamers/", "source_slug": "niko-partners" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The legal scholar Leon Y. Xiao argues the rules should not be dismissed as draconian. Tencent reported that minors' share of spending in its games fell from 4.8% to 1.1% in a year, which means far fewer children buying loot boxes, the paid random prizes in games. The penalties fall on companies, not on children.", "card_text": "The limits work as consumer protection", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "Leon Y. Xiao, Journal of Behavioral Addictions (May 2022)", "link": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9295219/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The Chinese industry's own survey shows where a cap enforced by ID leaks. Most children who broke the limit used an adult relative's account, and 44.84% of parents surveyed had registered a game account for their child under their own identity.", "card_text": "Children play on their parents' identities", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "China.com, on the games industry association's 2025 report (22 December 2025)", "link": "https://tech.china.com/articles/20251222/202512221785455.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The Korea Herald's editorial lists what the shutdown law got wrong. Microsoft made Minecraft adults-only in South Korea rather than build a curfew system for one country. The law missed mobile games entirely. And children were losing sleep to cram schools, not to games.", "card_text": "A curfew breaks things it was never aimed at", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "The Korea Herald (November 2021)", "link": "https://www.koreaherald.com/article/2725997", "source_slug": "korea-herald" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "A 2025 study of 2,715 Chinese adolescents found 93.6% complying with the 2021 rule. Average daily play fell from 60 minutes to 44, and among the heaviest players from 211 minutes to 132. It relies on what the adolescents said about themselves. The 2023 study used recorded play but had no ages, so its authors say they cannot rule out that children played less while adults played more. The two have not been reconciled.", "card_text": "The two main studies disagree, and neither settles it", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Zhou and colleagues, Journal of Behavioral Addictions (15 September 2025)", "link": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12486258/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Leon Xiao points out that a cap of 90 minutes a day had applied since 2019. The heavy players in the 2025 study were all playing at least two hours a day before the 2021 rule, so they were already breaking the old one. High compliance in a survey says little about children who are determined to get round the limit.", "card_text": "The heavy players in the surveys were already breaking the earlier rule", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Leon Y. Xiao, Journal of Behavioral Addictions (4 November 2024)", "link": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12486279/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "No independent body publishes how much Chinese children play each year. The yearly figures come from the games industry's own association, from a questionnaire of about 5,000 people. It reported 24.9% of minors playing three hours a week or more in 2024, and 71.0% playing less than that in 2025.", "card_text": "The only yearly figures come from the industry itself", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "China.com, on the games industry association's 2025 report (22 December 2025)", "link": "https://tech.china.com/articles/20251222/202512221785455.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Mid to late December 2026, when the Chinese industry association usually publishes its yearly report on protecting minors. The figure to look for is the share playing under three hours a week. It was 71.0% in 2025. The 2024 report gave 24.9% playing three hours or more, which implies about 75% playing less, so on the association's own figures the share keeping to the limit slipped. The two surveys may not be comparable.", "card_text": "China's next yearly report on minors", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "China.com, on the games industry association's 2025 report (22 December 2025)", "link": "https://tech.china.com/articles/20251222/202512221785455.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Early January 2027, when the current US Congress ends. The Senate has advanced a different children's safety bill, without the games section. If the House bill does not pass the Senate by then, it lapses.", "card_text": "Whether the US bill survives", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "IAPP, Alex LaCasse (6 August 2026)", "link": "https://iapp.org/news/a/us-senate-committee-approves-kosa-children-s-ai-safety-bills", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "publishers-split-on-gambling-money-in-esports", "name": "Gambling money is moving into games and the platforms around them", "stage": "Perennial", "category": "Money & business model", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "prolongs-h1", "horizon_line": "Betting money propping up teams, streamers and platforms, until regulators step in.", "markets": [ "BR", "EU", "Global", "IN", "US" ], "what_it_is": "Betting money is reaching games and where people watch them. Riot Games let bookmakers sponsor its top teams in 2025, and in 2026 talked with the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. Esports Charts counts a betting brand as title sponsor of nine of the top ten Counter-Strike teams in the Americas. The streaming site Kick is backed by Stake, an online casino. Brazil and India have banned ads for betting and money games, and California has banned sweepstakes casinos and those who knowingly promote them.", "why_it_matters": "Esports teams and streamers have few sponsors willing to pay, and betting companies are among them. The companies that run games and streaming sites now decide which gambling money comes in, and governments are starting to decide for them.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "CS2 Sponsorship Landscape 2026: Gambling Brands Control Majority of Title Sponsorships", "link": "https://escharts.com/news/betting-and-gambling-companies-lead-title-sponsorships-2026-counter-strike-esports", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "LA City Attorney Hydee Feldstein Soto Files Lawsuit Against Online Gambling Enterprise, Stake.us", "link": "https://cityattorney.lacity.gov/updates/la-city-attorney-hydee-feldstein-soto-files-lawsuit-against-online-gambling-enterprise", "type": "Primary", "format": "" }, { "source": "The only companies that want to sponsor me are gambling companies", "link": "https://www.tiktok.com/@nathanli1236/video/7671398335902895368", "type": "Community", "format": "video" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "Esports Charts sponsorship analyses, Streams Charts on Kick, state legislatures' sweepstakes bills, the Los Angeles City Attorney, Esports News UK, SportBusiness", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "", "series_note": "", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "Betting money is reaching games and where people watch them. ", { "text": "Riot Games", "href": "https://www.riotgames.com/en/news/esports-betting-sponsorships" }, " let bookmakers sponsor its top teams in 2025, and in 2026 talked with the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. ", { "text": "Esports Charts", "href": "https://escharts.com/news/betting-and-gambling-companies-lead-title-sponsorships-2026-counter-strike-esports" }, " counts a betting brand as title sponsor of nine of the top ten Counter-Strike teams in the Americas. The streaming site Kick is backed by Stake, an online casino. Brazil and India have banned ads for betting and money games, and California has banned sweepstakes casinos and those who knowingly promote them." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Definition", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Skins are cosmetic items in a game, such as a new look for a weapon or character. They do not change how the game plays. Some games let players trade them, which gives them real value. Skin gambling is betting with those items instead of cash. That effectively turns decorations into a currency, which is why several countries regulate it as gambling.", "card_text": "What is skin gambling?", "year": "", "market": "", "source": "", "link": "", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Italy's Dignity Decree bans gambling advertising and sponsorship across all media, which covers esports teams and events. National advertising law, not the game publisher, is often the first limit a team meets.", "card_text": "Italy bans all gambling advertising, esports included", "year": "2018", "market": "", "source": "Esports Legal News, Leonid Shmatenko (13 June 2025)", "link": "https://esportslegal.news/2025/06/13/gambling-sponsorships-esports/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "At the end of 2024 Riot Games, which makes League of Legends and Valorant and runs their leagues, tells teams they will be allowed betting partners, kept off its broadcasts and off jerseys. Counter-Strike and Dota teams had long relied on betting sponsors. Riot's had been barred from them.", "card_text": "Riot tells teams it will allow betting sponsors", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Esports Charts, Dmytro Murko (17 January 2025)", "link": "https://escharts.com/news/esports-trends-2025", "source_slug": "esports-charts" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Riot formally opens betting sponsorship to top-tier League of Legends and Valorant teams in the Americas and in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Riot vets each bookmaker. Its own broadcasts stay free of betting brands, and no betting logos go on jerseys. Riot says $10.7 billion was bet on its two games in 2024, about 70% of it with unregulated operators.", "card_text": "Riot opens betting sponsorship to its top teams", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Riot Games, John Needham (26 June 2025)", "link": "https://www.riotgames.com/en/news/esports-betting-sponsorships", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "MIBR's Valorant team and the bookmaker 1xBet announce the first betting sponsorship approved anywhere in Riot's leagues. The value of the deal is not disclosed.", "card_text": "A Brazilian team signs the first betting deal Riot approves", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Yogonet (28 November 2025)", "link": "https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2025/11/28/116547-1xbet-becomes-official-betting-partner-of-mibrs-valorant-team", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Valve, which makes Counter-Strike, updates the rules tournament organizers must follow. Skins are cosmetic items in the game that can be traded for real money, and a whole class of websites takes them as betting chips or sells randomized cases of them. Those sites may no longer appear on jerseys or anything visible on a broadcast. The same rules still allow betting sponsors that are licensed by the authorities where they operate.", "card_text": "Valve bars skin-gambling sites from Counter-Strike jerseys and broadcasts", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "HLTV, Nohte (10 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.hltv.org/news/43421/valve-bans-skins-gambling-case-opening-sites-from-jerseys-and-events-in-tor", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "India's online gaming law of August 2025 bans any advertisement that directly or indirectly promotes an online game played for money. It defines an e-sport as a registered competition that may charge entry fees and pay prize money but involves no bets or stakes by anyone, player or not.", "card_text": "India bans money-game advertising and bars bets from esports", "year": "2025", "market": "IN", "source": "Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 (India), sections 2 and 6", "link": "https://www.meity.gov.in/static/uploads/2025/10/8a7f103cefc68ed8aaa2ebc9a2ed7c13.pdf", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Los Angeles's City Attorney sues Stake.us, which calls itself a social casino, along with its owner Easygo, the streaming site Kick, founders Ed Craven and Bijan Tehrani, and companies that supply its games. The suit says Stake.us is an unlicensed casino operating illegally in California. It says Stake earned about $4.7 billion in gross revenue in 2024.", "card_text": "Los Angeles sues Stake.us, Kick and their founders", "year": "2025", "market": "US", "source": "Los Angeles City Attorney (4 September 2025)", "link": "https://cityattorney.lacity.gov/updates/la-city-attorney-hydee-feldstein-soto-files-lawsuit-against-online-gambling-enterprise", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Governor Newsom signs AB 831, which makes it unlawful to offer an online sweepstakes game, a casino-style game played with two currencies in which players can win prizes or cash equivalents. It also makes it unlawful for a platform provider or media affiliate, among others, to knowingly and willfully support or promote one.", "card_text": "California bans sweepstakes casinos and those who promote them", "year": "2025", "market": "US", "source": "AB 831 (California), Chapter 623 of 2025", "link": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202520260AB831", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Esports Charts counts the title sponsors, the brand in a team's name or on the front of its shirt, of the top-ranked Counter-Strike teams. Nine of the top ten teams in the Americas carry a betting, crypto casino or poker brand. So do twelve of the top twenty in Europe, where only four have a title sponsor from outside gambling.", "card_text": "Betting brands hold the title sponsorship of most top Counter-Strike teams", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Esports Charts (16 February 2026)", "link": "https://escharts.com/news/betting-and-gambling-companies-lead-title-sponsorships-2026-counter-strike-esports", "source_slug": "esports-charts" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Winamax announces deals with G2 for League of Legends and Team Heretics for Valorant. Its announcement says its red W sits at the center of the teams' jerseys and will be visible in the background of streams. Riot's rule says no betting logos on jerseys.", "card_text": "Winamax adds a second team and says its logo sits at the center of the jersey", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Winamax (18 March 2026)", "link": "https://www.winamax.es/en/news_winamax-strengthens-its-commitment-to-esports-59636?param=winamax-strengthens-its-commitment-to-esports-59636", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A provisional measure signed by President Lula on 25 September 2026 bans fixed-odds betting in Brazil, on sports and on online games of chance alike, and every form of betting advertising and sponsorship. Licensed operators must go offline within ten days, and sponsors' signs must come down in the same period.", "card_text": "Brazil bans betting and betting sponsorship", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Provisional Measure 1394 (Brazil)", "link": "https://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2023-2026/2026/mpv/mpv1394.htm", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Bloomberg reports that Riot Games has discussed esports sponsorship deals with Polymarket and Kalshi, prediction markets where people trade on the outcome of events, matches included. Riot says it is evaluating them, and neither company confirms the talks. Any sponsor Riot approves would have to take its betting data from GRID, the esports data company.", "card_text": "Riot talks to prediction markets about sponsoring its esports", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Esports News UK, Adam Roarty, relaying Bloomberg (11 September 2026)", "link": "https://esports-news.co.uk/2026/09/11/riot-games-in-talks-with-polymarket-and-kalshi-over-sponsorship-deals", "source_slug": "esports-news-uk" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "John Needham, who runs esports at Riot, argues that fans already bet billions on Riot's games, mostly with unregulated operators. Approving sponsors, he says, steers that activity to bookmakers Riot has vetted, and a share of Riot's income from it goes to lower-tier teams.", "card_text": "Riot says the betting happens anyway", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Riot Games, John Needham (26 June 2025)", "link": "https://www.riotgames.com/en/news/esports-betting-sponsorships", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Jack Coleman of TheGamer reads Riot's change as a symptom of what he calls esports' existential revenue problem. Teams have no ticket income or television money to speak of, and the venture capital that once paid the bills has gone.", "card_text": "The reversal shows how short of money esports is", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "TheGamer, Jack Coleman (27 June 2025)", "link": "https://www.thegamer.com/riot-games-league-of-legends-valorant-betting-sponsorships-gambling/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The city's complaint argues that Kick built a platform designed to promote gambling at Stake's casinos, and recruited streamers, Californians among them, to gamble on Stake.us live. It says Easygo wholly owns Kick. The complaint is signed by the city and by Susman Godfrey, a private law firm acting for it, and asks for attorneys' fees.", "card_text": "Los Angeles says Kick was built to sell Stake", "year": "2025", "market": "US", "source": "Complaint, People v. Sweepsteaks Ltd. d/b/a Stake.us (Los Angeles Superior Court, 28 August 2025)", "link": "https://www.susmangodfrey.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/People-v.-Stake.us-Complaint.pdf", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Kick began in 2023, after Twitch restricted streams from unlicensed casinos in 2022, and is backed by Stake. Its co-founder Bijan Tehrani said in April 2026 that he and Ed Craven had personally put nearly $1 billion into it. Kick says it has reached 100 million users, and it keeps 5% of streamers' subscription income against Twitch's standard 50%.", "card_text": "A casino's owners run a major streaming site", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Streams Charts, Ravi Iyer (13 April 2026)", "link": "https://streamscharts.com/news/kick-reaches-100-million-users", "source_slug": "streams-charts" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Valve did not ban gambling money. Its tournament license still accepts a betting sponsor that is officially licensed by the applicable authorities. Only businesses built on Valve's own item economy are out. Both publishers now allow licensed bookmakers, and differ on skins and on where a logo may appear.", "card_text": "The two publishers are less far apart than they look", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Valve, Limited Game Tournament License", "link": "https://store.steampowered.com/tourney/limited_license", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Ollie Ring of The Escapist argues that Valve went after the sponsorship rather than the skin-gambling sites themselves, which run on Valve's own trading system. The sites carry on untouched, he writes, and the teams and organizers take the loss.", "card_text": "Valve banned the advertising, not the sites", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "The Escapist, Ollie Ring (11 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.escapistmagazine.com/news-valve-bans-skins-advertising/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "New York's law, signed on 5 December 2025 and in force at once, bans online sweepstakes games. Anyone who knowingly takes revenue from them can be barred from gaming operations in the state, and each violation carries a fine of $10,000 to $100,000.", "card_text": "States are closing the sweepstakes route", "year": "2025", "market": "US", "source": "S5935A (New York), Chapter 605 of 2025", "link": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/bills/2025/S5935/amendment/A", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "No one publishes the share of esports sponsorship income that comes from betting. The terms of the first Riot-approved deal were not disclosed. Esports Charts' count covers one game in one month and only title sponsors, with no earlier year to compare it with, and it says its comparison for Asia is more limited.", "card_text": "Nobody knows how much of the money is gambling money", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Esports Charts (16 February 2026)", "link": "https://escharts.com/news/betting-and-gambling-companies-lead-title-sponsorships-2026-counter-strike-esports", "source_slug": "esports-charts" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Congress's deliberation period on the provisional measure runs to 23 November 2026, with an urgency regime from 9 November. The thing to watch is whether Congress converts it into law, amends it or lets it lapse, and with it the ban on betting sponsorship.", "card_text": "Whether Congress keeps Brazil's betting ban", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Congresso Nacional, MPV 1394/2026", "link": "https://www.congressonacional.leg.br/materias/medidas-provisorias/-/mpv/175871", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "1 November 2026, when Oklahoma's SB 1589 takes effect. It makes it a felony to run online casino games played with a currency that can be exchanged for prizes, or to support them as a platform provider, promoter or media affiliate. The thing to watch is whether streamers who promote such sites stop doing so there.", "card_text": "Oklahoma's ban reaches the promoters", "year": "2026", "market": "US", "source": "SB 1589 (Oklahoma), enrolled", "link": "http://webserver1.lsb.state.ok.us/cf_pdf/2025-26%20ENR/SB/SB1589%20ENR.PDF", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The 2027 season. Riot's post limits betting sponsorship 'initially' to top-tier teams in two regions. The next step would be an extension to Asia or to lower tiers.", "card_text": "Whether Riot widens the program", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Riot Games, John Needham (26 June 2025)", "link": "https://www.riotgames.com/en/news/esports-betting-sponsorships", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "childrens-data-privacy-and-the-age-assurance-bargain", "name": "Children's privacy rules are nudging games toward checking every player's age", "stage": "Perennial", "category": "Regulation, safety & age", "horizon": "perennial", "horizon_group": null, "horizon_line": "The paradox that keeps returning: less data about children means more checks on everyone.", "markets": [ "BR", "EU", "IN", "UK", "US" ], "what_it_is": "The US rewrote its children's privacy rule in 2025, with compliance due by April 2026. It does not require age checks, but in February 2026 the Federal Trade Commission said it would not punish data collected only to check age. Roblox now asks anyone who wants to chat for a face scan or an ID, a step it took under the safety pressure covered on the child-safety page, not because a privacy law required it. The UK still accepts a stated age where risk is low, and the EU's guidelines are voluntary. Privacy groups object, and the first leaks have already happened.", "why_it_matters": "Laws protecting children's data limit what games offer young players. Applying them means knowing who is a child, and the surest checks are a face scan or an ID. So rules meant to collect less data are nudging platforms toward collecting more, from everyone.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Roblox to face external audits to prove it is safe for Australian children", "link": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-20/roblox-esafety-court-enforceable-undertaking/107056294", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "Understanding the updated COPPA rules and their impact on child safety", "link": "https://gamesbeat.com/understanding-the-updated-coppa-rules-and-their-impact-on-child-safety/", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "California enacts new social media curbs for children under 16", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/california-enacts-new-social-media-curbs-for-children-under-16/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "FTC press releases and enforcement actions, IAPP coverage, ICO (UK), law-firm COPPA trackers", "status_label": "Proof of age", "measure_label": "What the rule asks for", "row_label": "", "series_label": "", "series_note": "", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "The US rewrote its children's privacy rule in 2025, with compliance due by April 2026. It does not require age checks, but in February 2026 the ", { "text": "Federal Trade Commission", "href": "https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2026/02/ftc-issues-coppa-policy-statement-incentivize-use-age-verification-technologies-protect-children" }, " said it would not punish data collected only to check age. Roblox now asks anyone who wants to chat for a face scan or an ID, a step it took under the safety pressure covered on the ", { "text": "child-safety page", "href": "/trend/child-safety-enforcement-in-game-platforms" }, ", not because a privacy law required it. The UK still accepts a stated age where risk is low, and the EU's guidelines are voluntary. Privacy groups object, and the first leaks have already happened." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The federal children's privacy rule, amended in 2025 with compliance due by 22 April 2026, does not require age checks. In February 2026 the Federal Trade Commission said it will not pursue companies that collect personal data solely to check a user's age, if they meet its conditions.", "card_text": "Encouraged, not required", "year": "2026", "market": "US", "source": "Federal Trade Commission (25 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2026/02/ftc-issues-coppa-policy-statement-incentivize-use-age-verification-technologies-protect-children", "source_slug": "ftc" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A package of state laws signed on 10 September 2026 restricts features such as autoplay and algorithmic feeds for under-16s, and requires software applications to carry a signal of the user's age.", "card_text": "California: age signals required in apps", "year": "2026", "market": "US", "source": "Governor of California (10 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gov.ca.gov/2026/09/10/governor-newsom-signs-the-strongest-child-safety-chatbot-and-social-media-laws-in-the-nation/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Children's Code applies to any online service a child is likely to use, games included. A service must establish age with a level of certainty that fits the risks, or apply the code's protections to every user. Asking users to state their age is still accepted where the risk is low.", "card_text": "As certain as the risk demands", "year": "2021", "market": "UK", "source": "Information Commissioner's Office, Children's Code, standard 3", "link": "https://ico.org.uk/for-organisations/uk-gdpr-guidance-and-resources/childrens-information/childrens-code-guidance-and-resources/age-appropriate-design-a-code-of-practice-for-online-services/3-age-appropriate-application/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The 2023 data protection law requires a parent's verifiable consent before any personal data of an under-18 is processed, and bars tracking, behavioral monitoring and targeted advertising aimed at children. The rules of 13 November 2025 say how the parent is checked, from identity and age details held or supplied, or a government-backed token, and take effect 18 months after publication.", "card_text": "A parent's verified consent, from 2027", "year": "2025", "market": "IN", "source": "Digital Personal Data Protection Rules, 2025 (India), rule 10 (13 November 2025)", "link": "https://www.meity.gov.in/static/uploads/2025/11/53450e6e5dc0bfa85ebd78686cadad39.pdf", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Commission's 2025 guidelines under the Digital Services Act call for age verification where there is a hard minimum age and age estimation elsewhere, by methods that are accurate and do not intrude. The guidelines are voluntary. On 17 September 2026 the Commission adopted a draft KIDS Act, a regulation that would require certified age verification independent of the platform, a free option in every member state, and zero knowledge proof technology. It is a proposal and has to pass the Parliament and the member states.", "card_text": "Voluntary guidelines, and a proposal for stricter limits", "year": "2026", "market": "EU", "source": "European Commission, The KIDS Act explained (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/faqs/kids-act-explained", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Since 17 March 2026, app stores and operating systems must check users' ages and pass an age signal to apps. A service selling anything barred to under-18s, loot boxes included, may no longer accept a user's own statement of age. The data protection authority enforces the law.", "card_text": "Required, and self-declaration does not count", "year": "2026", "market": "BR", "source": "Law 15211 (Brazil), via the Justice Ministry's ECA Digital FAQ", "link": "https://www.gov.br/mj/pt-br/assuntos/sua-protecao/sedigi/eca-digital/perguntas_respostas_eca_digital_30072026.pdf", "source_slug": "classind-mjsp" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The maker of Fortnite agrees to pay $275 million for collecting children's data without their parents' consent, and must switch voice and text chat off by default for children and teenagers. The Federal Trade Commission calls it the largest penalty it has obtained for breaking one of its rules.", "card_text": "Epic Games pays the largest children's privacy penalty on a game", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "Federal Trade Commission (19 December 2022)", "link": "https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2022/12/fortnite-video-game-maker-epic-games-pay-more-half-billion-dollars-over-ftc-allegations", "source_slug": "ftc" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Microsoft settles charges that it collected personal information from children who signed up for Xbox without telling their parents or getting their consent. The order says avatars made from a child's image, and biometric and health data, are covered by the children's privacy rule.", "card_text": "Microsoft pays $20 million over Xbox sign-ups", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Federal Trade Commission (5 June 2023)", "link": "https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2023/06/ftc-will-require-microsoft-pay-20-million-over-charges-it-illegally-collected-personal-information", "source_slug": "ftc" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Federal Trade Commission finalizes changes to the rule under the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act, the law known as COPPA that requires a parent's consent before a service collects data from a child under 13. Face scans, fingerprints and government IDs now count as personal information, and targeted advertising needs a separate consent. Companies have until 22 April 2026 to comply.", "card_text": "The US children's privacy rule is rewritten for the first time since 2013", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Federal Trade Commission (16 January 2025)", "link": "https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2025/01/ftc-finalizes-changes-childrens-privacy-rule-limiting-companies-ability-monetize-kids-data", "source_slug": "ftc" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "HoYoverse settles charges that it collected children's data and misled players about the cost and odds of loot boxes, the paid random prizes in its game. It must delete data on under-13s and may not sell loot boxes to under-16s without a parent's consent.", "card_text": "The maker of Genshin Impact pays $20 million", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Federal Trade Commission (17 January 2025)", "link": "https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2025/01/genshin-impact-game-developer-will-be-banned-selling-lootboxes-teens-under-16-without-parental", "source_slug": "ftc" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Commission issues guidelines on protecting minors under the Digital Services Act and a blueprint for its own age-verification app, meant to let someone prove they are old enough without revealing who they are.", "card_text": "The European Commission publishes guidelines and an age-check app", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "European Commission (14 July 2025)", "link": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/commission-publishes-guidelines-protection-minors", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "From 25 July 2025, services that show harmful content to UK users must check ages by a selfie, an identity document or similar means.", "card_text": "The UK starts enforcing age checks under its Online Safety Act", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "TechCrunch, Anthony Ha (26 July 2025)", "link": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/26/u-k-starts-enforcing-online-age-check-rules/", "source_slug": "techcrunch" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Discord says photos of government IDs belonging to about 70,000 users were exposed when a company that handles its customer support was breached. The IDs had been submitted by users appealing a decision about their age.", "card_text": "Identity documents sent in for age appeals leak from Discord's contractor", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Discord (3 October 2025, updated 9 October)", "link": "https://discord.com/press-releases/update-on-security-incident-involving-third-party-customer-service", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Roblox makes age checks mandatory worldwide for access to chat, by a face scan that estimates age or by an identity document, and sorts users into six age groups. Roblox says its contractor deletes the images after processing.", "card_text": "Roblox requires an age check from every user who wants to chat", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "TechCrunch, Aisha Malik (7 January 2026)", "link": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/01/07/roblox-now-requires-all-users-globally-to-complete-age-checks-to-access-chat/", "source_slug": "techcrunch" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Checking a child's age means collecting data about the child, which the privacy rule restricts. The Federal Trade Commission says it will not enforce the rule against companies that collect data solely to verify age, under conditions, and promises to review the rule.", "card_text": "The US regulator says it will not punish data collected only to check age", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Federal Trade Commission (25 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2026/02/ftc-issues-coppa-policy-statement-incentivize-use-age-verification-technologies-protect-children", "source_slug": "ftc" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "TikTok and its owner ByteDance settle with the US Department of Justice for $400 million: $300 million now, and $100 million when a court cancels an earlier 2019 order. The department calls it one of the largest recoveries in a children's privacy case. TikTok is not a game. The last penalty against a game company was in January 2025.", "card_text": "TikTok pays $400 million over children's data", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "US Department of Justice (21 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-secures-400m-settlement-tiktok-and-bytedance-resolve-childrens-privacy", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Governor Gavin Newsom signs thirteen bills on children's online safety. One restricts features such as autoplay and algorithmic feeds for under-16s. Another requires software applications to carry a signal of the user's age.", "card_text": "California restricts feeds for under-16s and requires age signals in apps", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Governor of California (10 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gov.ca.gov/2026/09/10/governor-newsom-signs-the-strongest-child-safety-chatbot-and-social-media-laws-in-the-nation/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Commission adopts a draft KIDS Act on 17 September 2026. Age is to be verified through certified solutions independent of the platforms, including a free EU age verification app and, in time, the European Digital Identity Wallet. The Commission states that platforms do not check identity documents and do not learn who the user is, and that the law requires zero knowledge proof technology that cannot identify, locate, track or profile anyone. Every member state must offer at least one free way to prove age, including for people without digital identification.", "card_text": "The European Commission proposes age checks that are meant not to identify anyone", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "European Commission, The KIDS Act explained (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/faqs/kids-act-explained", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Discord re-launches age verification for all users on 22 September 2026, seven months after postponing it over privacy objections. Users can verify by credit card, the Apple App Store, Google Play, Google Wallet or AgeKey, with no video selfie and no identity document. Chief technology officer Stanislav Vishnevskiy says the non-biometric approach is meant to get ahead of laws that might require something less privacy-focused. Discord says it will name every age assurance vendor it uses and has published its first age assurance data.", "card_text": "Discord runs age checks for every user without taking a face or an ID", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz (23 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/discord-re-launches-age-verification-following-backlash-over-privacy-concerns", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Stacy Feuer, who runs the privacy program at the US games ratings board, reads the Genshin Impact case as a warning to every studio. Regulators look at a game's art style and promotions, not at what its terms say, so a game that appeals to children is covered whether it wants to be or not.", "card_text": "A game cannot escape the rule by saying it is not for children", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "ESRB Privacy Certified, Stacy Feuer (24 January 2025)", "link": "https://www.esrb.org/privacy-certified-blog/a-kids-privacy-adventure-exploring-the-ftcs-privacy-and-lootbox-case-against-genshin-impact/", "source_slug": "esrb" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "In its settlement with Disney, the Federal Trade Commission relieved Disney of reviewing its own videos if YouTube adopts age assurance, meaning any method of establishing a user's age, for all users. Together with its 2026 statement, the agency is steering companies toward checking age rather than ordering them to.", "card_text": "The regulator now writes age checks into its settlements", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Federal Trade Commission (2 September 2025)", "link": "https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2025/09/disney-pay-10-million-settle-ftc-allegations-company-enabled-unlawful-collection-childrens-personal", "source_slug": "ftc" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The Electronic Frontier Foundation argues that settlements and laws requiring age checks force services to collect more personal data from every user, adults included, and that every new store of faces and IDs is another thing that can be breached.", "card_text": "Protecting children means collecting more data from everyone", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Electronic Frontier Foundation, David Greene (26 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2026/08/eff-statement-meta-settlement", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Alexis Ingber of Syracuse University tells TechCrunch that protections for teenagers are only as good as the age checks behind them, and that those checks often fail. Unlike a password, she notes, a leaked face or fingerprint cannot be replaced.", "card_text": "A leaked face cannot be changed", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "TechCrunch, Amanda Silberling (26 August 2026)", "link": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/26/metas-18b-child-safety-deal-hinges-on-age-verification-tech-that-doesnt-work-well/", "source_slug": "techcrunch" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The UK's code still lists asking users their age as acceptable where the risk is low, and lets a service skip age checks altogether by giving every user the children's protections. The European Commission's guidelines are voluntary. The US rule does not require age checks at all. The direction is the same everywhere. The letter of the rules is not.", "card_text": "The rules do not all demand proof of age", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "Information Commissioner's Office, Children's Code, standard 3", "link": "https://ico.org.uk/for-organisations/uk-gdpr-guidance-and-resources/childrens-information/childrens-code-guidance-and-resources/age-appropriate-design-a-code-of-practice-for-online-services/3-age-appropriate-application/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The Federal Trade Commission's children's privacy penalties against game companies run $275 million in 2022, $20 million in 2023 and $20 million in 2025, with none listed in 2026. The Genshin Impact figure also covered loot boxes. The large 2026 case is a social video app. Nobody publishes a yearly total, or how many children's faces and IDs game platforms have collected.", "card_text": "The penalties on games have shrunk, not grown", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Federal Trade Commission, Kids' Privacy (COPPA)", "link": "https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/topics/protecting-consumer-privacy-security/kids-privacy-coppa", "source_slug": "ftc" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Philip Yannella, a privacy lawyer at Blank Rome, tells TechCrunch that age can be established without storing personal data, which would greatly lessen the privacy problem. The European Commission's planned digital identity wallet is built on that idea.", "card_text": "Age can be checked without keeping the data", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "TechCrunch, Amanda Silberling (26 August 2026)", "link": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/26/metas-18b-child-safety-deal-hinges-on-age-verification-tech-that-doesnt-work-well/", "source_slug": "techcrunch" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "This page's argument is that age assurance means collecting more data from everyone. The KIDS Act is designed against exactly that: verification is handled by certified services independent of the platform, which return only whether the user is above or below an age. If zero knowledge proofs work as described, the trade this page describes is not a necessary one. In September 2026 Discord began checking every user's age by credit card or app store account, with no ID and no face, which is the first deployment at this scale and by the company whose contractor leak is the evidence above. Whether the estimate is accurate, and whether the vendors hold what they say they hold, is not yet measurable from outside.", "card_text": "The EU's answer is that the check need not collect anything", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "European Commission, The KIDS Act explained (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/faqs/kids-act-explained", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The end of 2026, when the EU's digital identity wallets are due. They are the Commission's preferred way to prove age without revealing identity. The test is whether games platforms adopt them in place of face scans.", "card_text": "The EU's digital identity wallets", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "European Commission, EU age verification", "link": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-age-verification", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Spring 2027, when the UK's planned restrictions for under-16s are expected. Gaming apps would not be banned, but would have to remove features such as chat with strangers for younger users.", "card_text": "The UK's limits for under-16s", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "TechCrunch (14 June 2026)", "link": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/14/uk-may-ban-social-media-for-children-under-16/", "source_slug": "techcrunch" } ] }, { "slug": "addiction-and-screen-time-discourse", "name": "Problem-gaming research is shifting from hours to compulsion", "stage": "Perennial", "category": "Regulation, safety & age", "horizon": "perennial", "horizon_group": null, "horizon_line": "A long-running debate whose unit of measure is finally changing.", "markets": [ "BR", "CN", "Global", "IN", "JP", "KR", "UK", "US" ], "what_it_is": "A 2025 study in JAMA followed 4,285 American children and tied suicidal behavior to compulsive use, not total screen time, with a weaker link for games than for social media and phones. The World Health Organization calls gaming disorder a diagnosis, while American psychiatry says it needs more study. More than 100 US lawsuits argue that games were designed to be addictive. How common it is remains unsettled, and the authors of the best-known estimate, about 3% of people, say such figures are inflated.", "why_it_matters": "Whether too much play is an illness, a parenting problem or a product defect depends on where you are. The newest research says hours played is the wrong measure, and that matters because nearly every rule written so far measures hours.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Study Finds Addictive Screen Use, Not Total Screen Time, Linked to Youth Suicide Risk", "link": "https://news.weill.cornell.edu/news/2025/06/study-finds-addictive-screen-use-not-total-screen-time-linked-to-youth-suicide-risk", "type": "Research", "format": "" }, { "source": "W66 days clean. I might stop. This is just not doing anything for me (r/StopGaming)", "link": "https://www.reddit.com/r/StopGaming/comments/1vuf5jh/66_days_clean_i_might_stop_this_is_just_not_doing/", "type": "Community", "format": "" }, { "source": "New Study Challenges Common Assumptions About Screen Time For Kids", "link": "https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/26/08/19/2231240/new-study-challenges-common-assumptions-about-screen-time-for-kids", "type": "Community", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "Journal of Behavioral Addictions, BMC Psychiatry, Oxford Internet Institute (Przybylski), KOCCA white papers for the Korean framing", "status_label": "How it is treated", "measure_label": "The rule or practice", "row_label": "", "series_label": "", "series_note": "", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "A ", { "text": "2025 study in JAMA", "href": "https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2835481" }, " followed 4,285 American children and tied suicidal behavior to compulsive use, not total screen time, with a weaker link for games than for social media and phones. The World Health Organization calls gaming disorder a diagnosis, while American psychiatry says it needs more study. More than 100 US lawsuits argue that games were designed to be addictive. How common it is remains unsettled, and the authors of ", { "text": "the best-known estimate", "href": "https://researchnow.flinders.edu.au/en/publications/global-prevalence-of-gaming-disorder-a-systematic-review-and-meta/" }, ", about 3% of people, say such figures are inflated." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The World Health Organization's disease classification, in effect since 2022, lists gaming disorder. The WHO says it affects only a small proportion of people who play.", "card_text": "A recognized diagnosis", "year": "2022", "market": "Global", "source": "World Health Organization, Gaming disorder Q&A", "link": "https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/addictive-behaviours-gaming-disorder", "source_slug": "who-addictive-behaviours-gaming-disorder" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The American Psychiatric Association's manual lists internet gaming disorder only among conditions recommended for further research. The argument is being had in court instead, in lawsuits against game makers.", "card_text": "Not a diagnosis: further study", "year": "2023", "market": "US", "source": "American Psychiatric Association, Internet Gaming", "link": "https://www.psychiatry.org/patients-families/internet-gaming", "source_slug": "american-psychiatric-association-internet-gaming" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "South Korea has not adopted the WHO's diagnosis. The council of officials and outside experts meant to decide has not done so, and in September 2025 the statistics office said its timetable would slip. The disease classification that applies from 2026 has no gaming code.", "card_text": "Undecided", "year": "2025", "market": "KR", "source": "ETNews, Park Jung-eun (10 September 2025)", "link": "https://www.etnews.com/20250910000346", "source_slug": "etnews" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Online games may serve under-18s only from 8pm to 9pm on Fridays, Saturdays, Sundays and public holidays.", "card_text": "Three hours a week for under-18s", "year": "2021", "market": "CN", "source": "National Press and Publication Administration (30 August 2021)", "link": "https://www.nppa.gov.cn/xxfb/tzgs/202108/t20210830_666285.html", "source_slug": "nppa" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Kagawa prefecture's ordinance asks under-18s to keep to 60 minutes of games a day on weekdays and 90 on weekends. It carries no penalties.", "card_text": "One prefecture, advisory only", "year": "2020", "market": "JP", "source": "Anime News Network (15 October 2020)", "link": "https://www.animenewsnetwork.com/interest/2020-10-15/kagawa-governor-claims-gaming-ordinance-is-not-unconstitutional/.165182", "source_slug": "anime-news-network" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "There is no rule. A 2021 advisory from the education ministry says play without limits can lead to gaming disorder, and asks parents not to allow in-game purchases without their consent and to cap spending per transaction.", "card_text": "Advice to parents, no rule", "year": "2021", "market": "IN", "source": "Ministry of Education, via the Press Information Bureau (10 December 2021)", "link": "https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1780177", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "There is no legal limit. The National Centre for Gaming Disorders, funded by the National Health Service, opened in London in October 2019 and has received over 1,000 referrals.", "card_text": "No rule: treated on the health service", "year": "2024", "market": "UK", "source": "National Centre for Gaming Disorders staff, BJPsych Open (August 2024)", "link": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11738663/", "source_slug": "nhs-national-centre-for-gaming-disorders" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Since a decree of 18 March 2026, services that children are likely to use, games included, must have mechanisms to prevent excessive, problematic or compulsive use. The decree names hidden stopping points, content that starts unasked, rewards for time spent and excessive notifications. It sets no limit on hours.", "card_text": "A duty to prevent compulsive use", "year": "2026", "market": "BR", "source": "Decree 12880 (Brazil), article 9", "link": "https://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2023-2026/2026/decreto/D12880.htm", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A group of scholars including Andrew Przybylski of Oxford publishes a paper titled 'A weak scientific basis for gaming disorder'. A formal diagnosis, they write, needs a much stronger evidence base, and carries a genuine risk of being misapplied.", "card_text": "Twenty-six researchers ask the WHO to hold off", "year": "2018", "market": "", "source": "van Rooij and colleagues, Journal of Behavioral Addictions (2018)", "link": "https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:9034237a-6310-4a44-8ef6-3a2d22b97028", "source_slug": "andrew-przybylski" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "On 25 May 2019 the WHO's member states adopt the eleventh revision of its disease classification, which lists gaming disorder as a mental health condition. It takes effect on 1 January 2022.", "card_text": "The World Health Assembly recognizes gaming disorder", "year": "2019", "market": "", "source": "World Health Organization, World Health Assembly update (25 May 2019)", "link": "https://www.who.int/news/item/25-05-2019-world-health-assembly-update", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Kagawa's ordinance takes effect on 1 April 2020: 60 minutes a day on weekdays and 90 on weekends for under-18s. The prefecture says it has no plans to enforce penalties.", "card_text": "A Japanese prefecture sets a daily limit for children", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "Anime News Network (15 October 2020)", "link": "https://www.animenewsnetwork.com/interest/2020-10-15/kagawa-governor-claims-gaming-ordinance-is-not-unconstitutional/.165182", "source_slug": "anime-news-network" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "South Korea announces the end of its shutdown law, which since 2011 had barred under-16s from online games between midnight and 6am. It is replaced by a system that lets parents choose the hours.", "card_text": "South Korea scraps its midnight gaming curfew", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "Engadget, Devindra Hardawar (25 August 2021)", "link": "https://www.engadget.com/south-korea-gaming-shutdown-law-end-163212494.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Five days after South Korea's announcement, China's regulator limits minors to one hour of online games, 8pm to 9pm, on Fridays, weekends and public holidays.", "card_text": "China cuts under-18s to three hours a week", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "National Press and Publication Administration (30 August 2021)", "link": "https://www.nppa.gov.cn/xxfb/tzgs/202108/t20210830_666285.html", "source_slug": "nppa" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Pooling 53 studies of 226,247 people in 17 countries, researchers estimate that 3.05% of people meet the criteria for gaming disorder. Using only the studies with the strictest sampling, the figure is 1.96%, with a range so wide that it runs from 0.19% to 17.12%.", "card_text": "A review of 53 studies puts gaming disorder at about 3% of people", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "Stevens, Dorstyn, Delfabbro and King, Australian & New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry (2021)", "link": "https://researchnow.flinders.edu.au/en/publications/global-prevalence-of-gaming-disorder-a-systematic-review-and-meta/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Miller & Zois, a law firm that represents plaintiffs in cases like these and so has an interest in them, says more than 100 lawsuits accusing game makers of designing addictive products have been coordinated before one judge in Los Angeles. A federal panel has twice refused to combine such cases nationally, in June 2024 and again at the turn of 2026, citing the differences among the games and the companies.", "card_text": "More than 100 US lawsuits are gathered in a California court", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Lawsuit Information Center, Miller & Zois (updated 31 July 2026)", "link": "https://www.lawsuit-information-center.com/video-game-addiction-lawsuits.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Researchers follow 4,285 American children for four years. How much time they spent on screens did not predict suicidal behavior. A pattern of compulsive use did. For video games, children on the high-compulsion path were 1.54 times as likely to report suicidal behavior. For social media and phones the figure was more than double.", "card_text": "A large US study ties compulsive use, not hours, to suicide risk", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "JAMA, Yunyu Xiao and colleagues (18 June 2025)", "link": "https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2835481", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Surgeon General's office issues an advisory on children's screen use that recommends time limits, and names gaming among the patterns of behavior it is concerned about.", "card_text": "The US Surgeon General advises limits on screen time", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Scientific American, Claire Cameron (20 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/screen-time-limits-can-protect-childrens-health-u-s-surgeon-general-advisory-says/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Researchers who followed 260 Finnish children for eight years find that those with more total screen time scored slightly better on tests of cognition at about 16. The authors say the study cannot show that screens caused the difference. It measured all screen time, not games alone.", "card_text": "An eight-year Finnish study links more screen time to slightly better thinking skills", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "University of Jyväskylä (11 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.jyu.fi/en/news/more-screen-time-since-childhood-associated-with-better-cognitive-processing-in-adolescence", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The authors of the American study argue that parents, doctors and researchers should track whether a child's use is becoming compulsive over time, rather than counting hours. Total screen time, they found, told them nothing about who was at risk.", "card_text": "What to watch for is the pattern, not the clock", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Weill Cornell Medicine (18 June 2025)", "link": "https://news.weill.cornell.edu/news/2025/06/study-finds-addictive-screen-use-not-total-screen-time-linked-to-youth-suicide-risk", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Two South Korean ministries are split. The health ministry favors adopting the WHO's diagnosis. The culture ministry says it could lead to social stigma, distort how games are seen, and shrink the industry, and eight industry associations have called the addiction framing an insult.", "card_text": "South Korea's culture ministry says a disease label would hurt the industry", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "The Korea Times, Nam Hyun-woo (20 June 2025)", "link": "https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/business/tech-science/20250620/debates-rekindle-in-korea-over-classifying-gaming-as-addictive-disorder", "source_slug": "korea-times" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Global Times, a newspaper owned by the Chinese state, reported that China's games industry body said minors' game addiction had been basically solved, with more than 75% playing under three hours a week. The same report found that 65.54% of minors had moved the time they used to spend on games to short-video apps.", "card_text": "China says its cap worked, and that children moved to short videos", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "Global Times (24 November 2022)", "link": "https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202211/1280323.shtml", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "This comes from the same plaintiffs' law firm, which stands to gain if the litigation grows. When the federal panel refused to combine the US cases, part of its reasoning was that the litigation would likely expand to include many additional games and developers. If the claims succeed, the exposure is in how games are designed and sold, not in how long anyone plays.", "card_text": "The lawsuits could reach far beyond a few games", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Lawsuit Information Center, Miller & Zois (updated 31 July 2026)", "link": "https://www.lawsuit-information-center.com/video-game-addiction-lawsuits.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Coverage of the American study often says compulsive use more than doubled suicide risk. That is the finding for social media and mobile phones. For video games the paper gives 1.54. The authors also note that the data are self-reported and that the study shows association, not cause.", "card_text": "The study's frightening number is not about games", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "JAMA, Yunyu Xiao and colleagues (18 June 2025)", "link": "https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2835481", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The research has moved from hours to compulsion, but the people who write rules mostly have not. The US Surgeon General's 2026 advisory is framed around time limits. China's cap and Kagawa's ordinance are unchanged limits on hours.", "card_text": "The rules are still about time", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Scientific American, Claire Cameron (20 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/screen-time-limits-can-protect-childrens-health-u-s-surgeon-general-advisory-says/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The authors of the 3.05% estimate say prevalence figures appear to be inflated by how studies are done: the choice of questionnaire alone explained 77% of the variation between them. The figures come from self-completed questionnaires, not clinical diagnosis. No health system publishes how many people are diagnosed each year.", "card_text": "Nobody knows how common it is", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "Stevens, Dorstyn, Delfabbro and King, Australian & New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry (2021)", "link": "https://researchnow.flinders.edu.au/en/publications/global-prevalence-of-gaming-disorder-a-systematic-review-and-meta/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "South Korea's long-delayed decision on whether to adopt the WHO's gaming disorder code, pushed from October 2025 into 2026 with no date set.", "card_text": "South Korea's decision on the WHO code", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "ETNews, Park Jung-eun (10 September 2025)", "link": "https://www.etnews.com/20250910000346", "source_slug": "etnews" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The first rulings in the coordinated California lawsuits, on whether the claims can proceed and whether a game counts as a product. As of the end of July 2026 the plaintiffs' law firm tracking the cases recorded none.", "card_text": "The first rulings in the California cases", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Lawsuit Information Center, Miller & Zois (updated 31 July 2026)", "link": "https://www.lawsuit-information-center.com/video-game-addiction-lawsuits.html", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "chinas-original-ip-franchise-build-out", "name": "Chinese studios are trying to build premium global franchises", "stage": "Emerging", "category": "Geography & power", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "prolongs-h1", "horizon_line": "New studios betting on the big-budget model, and meeting its costs.", "markets": [ "CN", "Global" ], "what_it_is": "Black Myth: Wukong, a 2024 action game based on a Chinese legend, proved a Chinese studio could make a global big-budget hit. Its developer, Game Science, is following it with Black Myth: Zhong Kui, built on a different figure from Chinese folklore. S-GAME, Everstone (working with NetEase) and miHoYo are building original worlds of their own. Everstone's Where Winds Meet reached a worldwide audience in late 2025, though as a free-to-play game. Games are now part of China's 15th Five-Year Plan, its national economic roadmap. For games sold up front, the evidence so far is one franchise. China's console market grew 55% in 2024 and 86% in 2025, to 8.36 billion yuan, on the official industry report's count, then fell 7% in the first half of 2026 as Wukong's sales faded.", "why_it_matters": "China's games industry is known for free-to-play mobile games, while big-budget games bought up front came mostly from Japan, the US and Europe. Chinese studios now make them too. Studios say rising costs are the first real limit on that growth.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "“China’s K-pop moment”: Wukong’s global success sparks government embrace of video games as soft power", "link": "https://restofworld.org/2024/wukong-china-gaming-strategy/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "China's game makers split as giants chase prestige and others target profit", "link": "https://kr-asia.com/chinas-game-makers-split-as-giants-chase-prestige-and-others-target-profit", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "Black Myth: Zhong Kui might be the best looking game ever made... Chinese devs are cooking", "link": "https://www.tiktok.com/@okami.games/video/7675962319934852365", "type": "Community", "format": "video" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "Rest of World China tech desk, Niko Partners, SCMP tech coverage, Naavik", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "Change in China's console game revenue, % on a year earlier", "series_note": "China's console market nearly tripled in two years on one game, Black Myth: Wukong, then shrank in the first half of 2026 as its sales faded.", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ { "text": "Black Myth: Wukong", "href": "https://gamesci.cn/wukong/" }, ", a 2024 action game based on a Chinese legend, proved a Chinese studio could make a global big-budget hit. Its developer, ", { "text": "Game Science", "href": "https://gamesci.cn/" }, ", is following it with ", { "text": "Black Myth: Zhong Kui", "href": "https://gamesci.cn/zhongkui/" }, ", built on a different figure from Chinese folklore. ", { "text": "S-GAME", "href": "https://pbz.s-game.com/en-US/" }, ", ", { "text": "Everstone", "href": "https://www.neteasegames.com/news/20250411/37000_1226637.html" }, " (working with ", { "text": "NetEase", "href": "https://www.neteasegames.com/" }, ") and ", { "text": "miHoYo", "href": "https://www.mihoyo.com/" }, " are building original worlds of their own. Everstone's Where Winds Meet reached a worldwide audience in late 2025, though as a free-to-play game. Games are now part of China's ", { "text": "15th Five-Year Plan", "href": "https://english.www.gov.cn/2026special/2026npcandcpcc/6979af4fc6d00ca5f9a08cd6" }, ", its national economic roadmap. For games sold up front, the evidence so far is one franchise. China's console market grew 55% in 2024 and 86% in 2025, to 8.36 billion yuan, on the official industry report's count, then fell 7% in the first half of 2026 as Wukong's sales faded." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Definition", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Original IP means a game built on characters and a world the studio created and owns itself, rather than one based on a movie, comic, or another company's property. AAA is the industry's informal term for its biggest-budget games, the ones made by hundreds of people over several years.", "card_text": "What is original IP?", "year": "", "market": "", "source": "", "link": "", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Growth in China's console game revenue in 2024 on the year before, as the official industry report states it: 55.13%, which it puts down to one breakout game.", "card_text": "55.1%", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "GPC, China Game Industry Report", "link": "https://www.cadpa.org.cn/3277/202501/41718.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee", "period": "2024" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Growth in China's console game revenue in 2025 on the year before, as the official industry report states it: 86.33%, to 8.36 billion yuan.", "card_text": "86.3%", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GPC, China Game Industry Report", "link": "https://www.cadpa.org.cn/3277/202512/41770.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee", "period": "2025" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The first half of 2026 compared with the first half of 2025, not a full year: console game revenue fell 7.06%, which the report puts down to Black Myth: Wukong's sales fading. The half-year report counts under 1 billion yuan, far less than half of 2025's 8.36 billion, so the two reports may not measure the market the same way.", "card_text": "-7.1%", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GPC, China Game Industry Report", "link": "https://www3.xinhuanet.com/tech/20260731/c5593cc57b18411ab328cd3ed98b554c/c.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee", "partial": true, "period": "First half of 2026" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "China's game exports fell for the first time in the series, down 3.70% to $17.35 billion, in the same year the domestic market fell 10.33%, its first decline in eight years.", "card_text": "Exports and the home market both fall", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "GPC, 2022 China Game Industry Report (14 February 2023)", "link": "https://www.cadpa.org.cn/3271/202302/41574.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Black Myth: Wukong sold 10 million copies in three days and passed 20 million within weeks. Xinhua and People's Daily praised it as a cultural triumph, and some policymakers called it China's K-pop moment.", "card_text": "Wukong sells 10 million in three days", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Rest of World, Lizzi C. Lee (25 September 2024)", "link": "https://restofworld.org/2024/wukong-china-gaming-strategy/", "source_slug": "rest-of-world" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The GPC's 2024 report put overseas revenue at $18.56 billion, up 13.39%, and China's console market up 55.13% on a breakout title.", "card_text": "Exports up 13%, and a console market stirs", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "GPC, 2024 China Game Industry Report (13 December 2024)", "link": "https://www.cadpa.org.cn/3277/202501/41718.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Game Science revealed Black Myth: Zhong Kui at Gamescom as the second Black Myth title, a new story and not a Wukong sequel. Platform estimates put Wukong at around 28 million copies and $1.25 billion in 2024.", "card_text": "Zhong Kui, not a Wukong sequel", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "TechNode (20 August 2025)", "link": "https://technode.com/2025/08/20/game-science-reveals-black-myth-zhong-kui-trailer-at-gamescom-2025-following-global-success-of-black-myth-wukong/", "source_slug": "technode" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The GPC's 2025 report put overseas revenue at $20.46 billion, up 10.23%, and China's console market up 86.33%.", "card_text": "Exports past $20 billion", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GPC, 2025 China Game Industry Report (19 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.cadpa.org.cn/3277/202512/41770.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Where Winds Meet, a martial-arts adventure by the NetEase studio Everstone, launches worldwide on PC and PlayStation 5 on 14 November 2025 and passes 15 million players in a month. It is free to play, so it shows reach abroad more than a market for games bought up front.", "card_text": "NetEase's Where Winds Meet launches worldwide, free to play", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Outlook Respawn, Kamalikaa Biswas (17 December 2025)", "link": "https://respawn.outlookindia.com/gaming/gaming-news/where-winds-meet-hits-15m-players-in-one-month", "source_slug": "outlook-respawn" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "KrASIA described the industry splitting. Market leaders chase the prestige of big-budget games at $200 to $400 million a title, while mid-sized studios defend profitable genres with proven mechanics.", "card_text": "Giants chase prestige, the rest chase profit", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "KrASIA, Cheng Zi (25 June 2026)", "link": "https://kr-asia.com/chinas-game-makers-split-as-giants-chase-prestige-and-others-target-profit", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The GPC's first-half report put overseas revenue at $12.37 billion, up 30.22%, the fastest growth in the series.", "card_text": "First-half exports up 30%", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GPC, China Game Industry Report for January to June 2026, via China News Service (30 July 2026)", "link": "http://www.ecns.cn/cns-wire/2026-07-30/detail-ihfhvays7504179.shtml", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The official industry report for the first half of 2026 has China's console game revenue down 7.06% on a year earlier, and puts the fall down to Black Myth: Wukong's sales fading. One game had been carrying the market.", "card_text": "China's console market shrinks as Wukong fades", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Xinhua, on the GPC report for January to June 2026 (31 July 2026)", "link": "https://www3.xinhuanet.com/tech/20260731/c5593cc57b18411ab328cd3ed98b554c/c.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Game Science showed fifteen minutes of Zhong Kui gameplay from an early build, two years after Wukong, with no release date announced.", "card_text": "Zhong Kui shows gameplay, still without a date", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "TechNode (20 August 2026)", "link": "https://technode.com/2026/08/20/game-science-unveils-15-minutes-of-gameplay-from-black-myth-zhong-kui/", "source_slug": "technode" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Xinhua wrote that Wukong had carried the essence of the national cultural spirit abroad, People's Daily said developers should use games to promote the nation's culture, and policymakers called it China's K-pop moment.", "card_text": "Games become soft power, officially", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Rest of World, Lizzi C. Lee (25 September 2024)", "link": "https://restofworld.org/2024/wukong-china-gaming-strategy/", "source_slug": "rest-of-world" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Almost from nothing, the GPC has China's console market up 55.13% in 2024 on a breakout title and up 86.33% in 2025, to 8.36 billion yuan.", "card_text": "A console market is forming at home", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GPC, 2025 China Game Industry Report (19 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.cadpa.org.cn/3277/202512/41770.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The industry is splitting by ambition. Market leaders pursue the prestige of big-budget games while mid-sized competitors defend profitable segments with proven mechanics. A mobile game such as Legend of Mushroom took nearly $400 million in 2024 on the second path.", "card_text": "Prestige and profit are now different strategies", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "KrASIA, Cheng Zi (25 June 2026)", "link": "https://kr-asia.com/chinas-game-makers-split-as-giants-chase-prestige-and-others-target-profit", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Development costs for the biggest games have surged to $200 to $400 million, which makes a profit hard to reach. KrASIA gives that as the reason most Chinese studios are not following Game Science.", "card_text": "Prestige may not pay", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "KrASIA, Cheng Zi (25 June 2026)", "link": "https://kr-asia.com/chinas-game-makers-split-as-giants-chase-prestige-and-others-target-profit", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Sensor Tower's 2023 review had Genshin Impact dominating the overseas revenue of Chinese mobile games, with the top 30 titles taking $7.8 billion on the app stores. Wukong is one console game inside a total led by mobile.", "card_text": "The exports are mostly mobile", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "TechNode, on Sensor Tower's 2023 review (30 January 2024)", "link": "https://technode.com/2024/01/30/genshin-impact-dominates-overseas-revenue-for-chinas-mobile-games-in-2023-report/", "source_slug": "technode" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Two years after Wukong, its studio's second game is an early build without a release date. The one other big Chinese game to reach a worldwide audience since, Where Winds Meet, is free to play. No second Chinese game sold up front has yet matched Wukong.", "card_text": "One hit is not a pipeline", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "TechNode (20 August 2026)", "link": "https://technode.com/2026/08/20/game-science-unveils-15-minutes-of-gameplay-from-black-myth-zhong-kui/", "source_slug": "technode" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "December 2026, when the GPC usually publishes its annual report. The figures to look for are the console market's growth and whether overseas revenue holds the first half's 30% pace.", "card_text": "The GPC's December tally", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GPC, China Game Industry Report for January to June 2026, via China News Service (30 July 2026)", "link": "http://www.ecns.cn/cns-wire/2026-07-30/detail-ihfhvays7504179.shtml", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "29 October 2026, the release date S-GAME gives for Phantom Blade Zero on PlayStation 5 and PC. It is the first big Chinese game sold up front since Wukong, and the first test of whether there is a second hit.", "card_text": "Phantom Blade Zero, the next test", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "S-GAME, Phantom Blade Zero", "link": "https://pbz.s-game.com/m/en-US/", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "gulf-capital-and-the-leveraged-ea-buyout", "name": "Saudi state money is buying major games companies", "stage": "Dominant", "category": "Geography & power", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "prolongs-h1", "horizon_line": "Patron capital extends the old model rather than changing it, and the debt makes it more fragile.", "markets": [ "CN", "Global", "JP", "KR", "MENA", "US" ], "what_it_is": "The Public Investment Fund owns 93.4% of EA, with two smaller partners, and holds it separately from Savvy Games Group, its own games company. EA has told lenders it will cut $700 million a year in costs. Bloomberg reports the fund is weighing a merger of the two, which nobody has confirmed. Naavik's Miikka Ahonen thinks the buying is nearly done, because the money Savvy committed is largely spent. Hard figures on whether the purchases pay their way are thin.", "why_it_matters": "Since 2022 Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund has bought across the games business, and in August 2026 it completed the purchase of Electronic Arts. Much of the price was borrowed, and EA now carries the debt.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Inside Saudi Arabia's $38 Billion Gaming Empire", "link": "https://naavik.co/digest/inside-saudi-arabias-38-billion-gaming-empire/", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "Saudi Arabia's PIF reportedly considering to combine EA with Savvy Games Group", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/saudi-arabias-pif-reportedly-considering-to-combine-ea-with-savvy-games-group", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "Saudi video game giant Savvy CEO Brian Ward is stepping down", "link": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-01/saudi-video-game-giant-savvy-ceo-brian-ward-is-stepping-down", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "Naavik, SportBusiness esports desk, Reuters M&A coverage, Esports Insider", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "The largest games deal backed by Saudi Arabia's sovereign fund agreed each year, $ billions", "series_note": "The deals grew from about $1 billion in 2022 to the $55 billion purchase of EA, agreed in 2025. No large deal was agreed in 2024.", "series_type": "columns-all-years", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "The Public Investment Fund owns 93.4% of EA, with two smaller partners, and holds it separately from Savvy Games Group, its own games company. EA has told lenders it will cut $700 million a year in costs. ", { "text": "Bloomberg reports", "href": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/saudi-arabias-pif-reportedly-considering-to-combine-ea-with-savvy-games-group" }, " the fund is weighing a merger of the two, which nobody has confirmed. ", { "text": "Naavik's Miikka Ahonen", "href": "https://naavik.co/digest/inside-saudi-arabias-38-billion-gaming-empire/" }, " thinks the buying is nearly done, because the money Savvy committed is largely spent. Hard figures on whether the purchases pay their way are thin." ], "series_format": "${n} billion", "claims": [ { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The largest games deal backed by Saudi Arabia's sovereign fund agreed in 2022: its games company Savvy bought the esports organizer ESL Gaming at this valuation. The same year it paid $1 billion for a stake in Embracer.", "card_text": "1.05", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/savvy-gaming-group-purchases-esl-gaming-and-faceit", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz", "series": "Largest deal ($ billions)" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The largest deal agreed in 2023: Savvy's purchase of the mobile games company Scopely.", "card_text": "4.9", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/savvy-games-group-acquires-scopely-for-49-billion", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz", "series": "Largest deal ($ billions)" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The largest deal agreed in 2025: the purchase of Electronic Arts by the fund and two partners, completed in August 2026. The price includes about $20 billion of borrowing. The same year Scopely bought Niantic's games business for $3.5 billion.", "card_text": "55", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/electronic-arts-completes-55bn-acquisition-ceo-announces-senior-leadership-changes", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz", "series": "Largest deal ($ billions)" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The largest deal agreed so far in 2026: Savvy's purchase of Moonton, maker of Mobile Legends, from ByteDance. It had not completed by September 2026.", "card_text": "6", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/savvy-games-acquires-mobile-legends-developer-moonton-for-6-billion", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz", "partial": true, "series": "Largest deal ($ billions)" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Savvy Games Group, owned by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, buys ESL Gaming at a valuation of $1.05 billion and buys its rival FaceIt, and merges the two.", "card_text": "A Saudi-owned company buys the two biggest esports organizers", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz, Jeffrey Rousseau (24 January 2022)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/savvy-gaming-group-purchases-esl-gaming-and-faceit", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Savvy buys about 8.1% of the Swedish games group Embracer for $1 billion. The fund already owns 96% of the Japanese developer SNK and holds stakes in Japan's Capcom and the Korean publisher Nexon worth about $1 billion together.", "card_text": "Savvy takes a $1 billion stake in Embracer", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz, Danielle Partis (8 June 2022)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/saudi-arabia-acquires-usd1bn-stake-in-embracer-group", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Savvy agrees to buy Scopely, the American maker of Monopoly Go, for $4.9 billion. The year before, Savvy had announced a games strategy worth $37.8 billion, with about $13 billion set aside to buy a major publisher.", "card_text": "Savvy buys Scopely for $4.9 billion", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz, Brendan Sinclair (5 April 2023)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/savvy-games-group-acquires-scopely-for-49-billion", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Scopely, now Saudi-owned, completes its purchase of Niantic's games business, including Pokémon Go, on 29 May 2025.", "card_text": "Scopely buys Pokémon Go's maker for $3.5 billion", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz, Samuel Roberts (3 June 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/scopely-officially-closes-35-billion-acquisition-of-niantics-games-business", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Electronic Arts agrees to be bought by the Public Investment Fund, the private equity firm Silver Lake and Jared Kushner's Affinity Partners, at $210 a share. EA calls it the largest deal of its kind. The buyers line up $20 billion of loans, of which $18 billion is expected to be drawn. In a leveraged buyout like this one, the loans become the debts of the company being bought.", "card_text": "EA agrees to be bought for $55 billion", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Electronic Arts, press release (29 September 2025)", "link": "https://www.ea.com/news/ea-announces-agreement-to-be-acquired", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A filing with Brazil's competition regulator shows how the ownership splits: the Public Investment Fund 93.4%, Silver Lake 5.5% and Affinity Partners 1.1%.", "card_text": "A filing shows the Saudi fund will own 93.4% of EA", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz, Alex Forbes-Calvin, relaying The Wall Street Journal (4 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/saudi-arabias-pif-will-own-over-934-of-ea-if-the-deal-completes", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Savvy agrees to buy Moonton, the Shanghai-based maker of Mobile Legends, from TikTok's owner ByteDance.", "card_text": "Savvy agrees to buy Moonton for about $6 billion", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz, relaying Bloomberg (23 March 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/savvy-games-acquires-mobile-legends-developer-moonton-for-6-billion", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "GamesIndustry.biz relays an IGN report that EA is laying off an unknown number of people at four studios that worked on Battlefield 6, five months after it launched. It was the best-selling game of 2025 in the United States. EA says it made 'select changes' to its Battlefield teams. Its shareholders had already approved the sale.", "card_text": "EA lays off staff at four Battlefield studios", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz, relaying IGN (9 March 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/electronic-arts-is-laying-off-workers-at-the-battlefield-6-studios", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "With every regulator's approval in hand, the deal closes on 4 August 2026 and EA's shares stop trading.", "card_text": "The EA purchase completes", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Electronic Arts, press release (4 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.ea.com/news/ea-announces-completion-of-acquisition", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The day after the deal closes, Polygon relays a Bloomberg report that EA has told its lenders it will cut $700 million from its yearly costs, $170 million of it from what it calls organizational efficiencies. EA now carries $18 billion of debt and owes about $1.8 billion a year in interest.", "card_text": "EA tells its lenders it will cut $700 million a year", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Polygon, relaying Bloomberg (5 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.polygon.com/ea-layoffs-leveraged-buyout-debt-18-billion/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Brian Ward, who had run Savvy since it was set up in 2021, steps down about a month after the EA deal closes. Turqi Alnowaiser, a deputy governor of the fund itself, takes over for the time being.", "card_text": "Savvy's chief executive steps down", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz, Sophie McEvoy (1 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/brian-ward-steps-down-as-savvy-games-group-ceo", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Bloomberg reports that the fund is considering combining EA with Savvy, though not before the Moonton purchase completes. The fund and EA declined to comment and Savvy did not respond. It is one outlet's report, from unnamed sources.", "card_text": "The fund is reported to be weighing a merger of EA and Savvy", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz, relaying Bloomberg (11 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/saudi-arabias-pif-reportedly-considering-to-combine-ea-with-savvy-games-group", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Nick Button-Brown, an investor who used to work at EA, argues that money spent on interest is money not spent on new games. 'You won't feel it next year, but you will feel it in five years,' he says.", "card_text": "The debt will be felt later, not now", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz, Alex Forbes-Calvin (10 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/why-the-55bn-acquisition-of-electronic-arts-isnt-your-usual-leveraged-buyout", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Jason Schreier of Bloomberg, quoted by the BBC, expects the debt to bring mass layoffs, more aggressive ways of charging players, and other big cost cuts. EA's own figures to its lenders point the same way.", "card_text": "Expect layoffs and harder selling", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "BBC News, Laura Cress (5 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjejyl34345o", "source_slug": "bbc-news" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "George Osborn, who writes on games and politics, tells the BBC that with EA's football and American football games Saudi Arabia owns a soft power asset quietly entrenched in the sporting community. Naavik's analysis agrees that the deals do not add up as a pure investment.", "card_text": "The prize is influence, not profit", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "BBC News, Laura Cress (5 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjejyl34345o", "source_slug": "bbc-news" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Forty-six Democrats in the House of Representatives asked the Federal Trade Commission to review the deal. The debt, they wrote, creates strong incentives for layoffs, moving work abroad and closing studios. EA had already cut more than 1,700 US jobs since 2023.", "card_text": "US lawmakers warn the debt makes job cuts likely", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz (23 January 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/us-lawmakers-ask-ftc-thoroughly-review-55bn-ea-deal-warn-of-potential-negative-impact-on-workers", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Naavik's Miikka Ahonen argues that the acquisition phase is nearing its end. The $38 billion Savvy committed is largely spent, he writes, and there is no other publisher the size of Scopely left to buy. He also notes that hard data on how the purchases have performed is thin.", "card_text": "The buying may be nearly over", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Naavik, Miikka Ahonen (10 May 2026)", "link": "https://naavik.co/digest/inside-saudi-arabias-38-billion-gaming-empire/", "source_slug": "naavik" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The New York Times reported in November 2025 that the Public Investment Fund was low on cash for new investments. The fund replied that it had $60 billion in cash.", "card_text": "The fund is reported to be short of cash", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz, Alex Forbes-Calvin, relaying The New York Times (24 November 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/saudi-arabias-investment-fund-reported-to-be-limiting-new-investments-as-cash-runs-low", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Players and creators of The Sims feared the new owners would change what the games include. Maxis, the studio that makes The Sims, said in January 2026 that its values, including inclusivity, are unchanged. No reporting so far documents a change made to suit the owners.", "card_text": "Nobody has shown EA changing its games to suit its owner", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Chronicle, Chris Scullion (12 January 2026)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/the-sims-studio-says-its-values-are-unchanged-including-inclusivity-as-eas-saudi-takeover-progresses/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The largest purchase in games is still Microsoft's. It announced in January 2022 that it would buy Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion, more than the $55 billion paid for EA. No one publishes a ranking of who has spent the most on games companies.", "card_text": "The Saudi fund is not the biggest buyer", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "Microsoft, press release (18 January 2022)", "link": "https://news.microsoft.com/2022/01/18/microsoft-to-acquire-activision-blizzard-to-bring-the-joy-and-community-of-gaming-to-everyone-across-every-device/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Late 2026, when the Moonton purchase is expected to complete. Only after that, Bloomberg's sources say, would the fund decide whether to merge EA into Savvy.", "card_text": "Moonton, and then the merger question", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz, relaying Bloomberg (11 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/saudi-arabias-pif-reportedly-considering-to-combine-ea-with-savvy-games-group", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The year to March 2027, EA's first financial year under its new owners. Watch for where the $700 million of yearly savings promised to lenders comes from.", "card_text": "Where EA's $700 million of cuts fall", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Polygon, relaying Bloomberg (5 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.polygon.com/ea-layoffs-leveraged-buyout-debt-18-billion/", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "growth-without-western-access", "name": "China's growth is going to Chinese-made games", "stage": "Emerging", "category": "Geography & power", "horizon": "h1", "horizon_group": null, "horizon_line": "The growth moved to a market Western publishers can barely reach.", "markets": [ "CN", "Global" ], "what_it_is": "The games industry earned about $10 billion more in 2025 than in 2021. According to analyst Matthew Ball's analysis, made when he was an outside analyst, before he became Xbox's chief strategy officer in May 2026, about $4 billion of that came from China, and another $1.5 billion from Chinese-made games sold abroad. Inside China, Chinese-made games take about 83% of revenue by the official industry report's 2025 count. Niko Partners puts China's 2025 game revenue at $51.8 billion, over $50 billion for the first time, and expects $53.9 billion in 2026.", "why_it_matters": "When people say the games industry is growing, much of that growth is in China, and most of it goes to Chinese-made games. What matters is the gap between where spending is growing and where Western publishers can actually make money.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "The state of video games with Matthew Ball, Part One", "link": "https://www.thegamebusiness.com/p/the-state-of-video-games-with-matthew", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "Chinese gaming market surpasses $50 billion", "link": "https://nikopartners.com/chinese-gaming-market-surpasses-50-billion-as-ai-premium-gaming-and-new-monetization-models-reshape-growth/", "type": "Data", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Oct 2026", "where_to_follow": "The Game Business (Dring), Matthew Ball / Epyllion, Niko Partners, Newzoo regional reports", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "Share of China's game revenue earned by Chinese-made games, by year", "series_note": "Chinese-made games have taken between 80% and 87% of China's game revenue every year since 2020. The dip to 80% in 2024 came as competition and costs rose at home, and the share was back to 83% in 2025. The 2026 figure is for the first half.", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "The games industry earned about $10 billion more in 2025 than in 2021. According to ", { "text": "analyst Matthew Ball's analysis", "href": "https://www.thegamebusiness.com/p/the-state-of-video-games-with-matthew" }, ", made when he was an outside analyst, before he became Xbox's chief strategy officer in May 2026, about $4 billion of that came from China, and another $1.5 billion from Chinese-made games sold abroad. Inside China, Chinese-made games take about 83% of revenue by the official industry report's 2025 count. ", { "text": "Niko Partners", "href": "https://nikopartners.com/chinese-gaming-market-surpasses-50-billion-as-ai-premium-gaming-and-new-monetization-models-reshape-growth/" }, " puts China's 2025 game revenue at $51.8 billion, over $50 billion for the first time, and expects $53.9 billion in 2026." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Derived, not stated: the 2021 report gives both 2021 figures and their increases on 2020, which puts 2020 at 240.2 billion yuan of self-developed revenue in a 287.1 billion yuan market, 83.7%.", "card_text": "~83.7%", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "GPC, 2021 China Game Industry Report (16 December 2021), derived from its stated increases", "link": "http://www.cadpa.org.cn/3277/202112/41403.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Self-developed games earned 255.8 billion yuan of China's 296.5 billion yuan game market in 2021, in the GPC's measure.", "card_text": "86.3%", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "GPC, 2021 China Game Industry Report (16 December 2021)", "link": "http://www.cadpa.org.cn/3277/202112/41403.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Self-developed games earned 222.4 billion yuan of a 265.9 billion yuan market in 2022, the year both fell.", "card_text": "83.6%", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "GPC, 2022 China Game Industry Report (14 February 2023)", "link": "https://www.cadpa.org.cn/3271/202302/41574.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Derived, not stated: the 2024 report's growth rates put 2023 at about 256.4 billion yuan of self-developed revenue in a 303.0 billion yuan market. The 2023 annual page was not found on the GPC site.", "card_text": "~84.6%", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "GPC, 2024 China Game Industry Report (13 December 2024), derived from its stated growth", "link": "https://www.cadpa.org.cn/3277/202501/41718.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Self-developed games earned 260.7 billion yuan of a record 325.8 billion yuan market in 2024, growing 1.70% against the market's 7.53%, which the GPC put down to competition and rising development and acquisition costs.", "card_text": "80.0%", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "GPC, 2024 China Game Industry Report (13 December 2024)", "link": "https://www.cadpa.org.cn/3277/202501/41718.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Self-developed games earned 291.1 billion yuan of a 350.8 billion yuan market in 2025, growing 11.64% against the market's 7.68%.", "card_text": "83.0%", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GPC, 2025 China Game Industry Report (19 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.cadpa.org.cn/3277/202512/41770.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "First half of 2026: self-developed games earned 163.4 billion yuan of a 188.5 billion yuan market, up 16.31% against 12.17%. The figures are from the GPC's January to June report, read in China News Service's account.", "card_text": "86.7%", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GPC, China Game Industry Report for January to June 2026, via China News Service (30 July 2026)", "link": "http://www.ecns.cn/cns-wire/2026-07-30/detail-ihfhvays7504179.shtml", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee", "partial": true }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The GPC's 2021 report had Chinese-made games taking 86% of the home market, 255.8 of 296.5 billion yuan.", "card_text": "Chinese-made games take 86% of the home market", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "GPC, 2021 China Game Industry Report (16 December 2021)", "link": "http://www.cadpa.org.cn/3277/202112/41403.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Self-developed games' home revenue grew only 1.70% in 2024 while the market grew 7.53%, and the share fell to 80%. The GPC blamed intensified competition and rising development and customer acquisition costs.", "card_text": "The home market gets crowded for Chinese studios too", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "GPC, 2024 China Game Industry Report (13 December 2024)", "link": "https://www.cadpa.org.cn/3277/202501/41718.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Joost van Dreunen finds that Chinese firms took 52% of the ten largest game publishers' revenue in 2025, up from 8% in 2010. Tencent alone took 19% of all publishing revenue.", "card_text": "Chinese companies earn half of what the ten largest make", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "SuperJoost Playlist, Joost van Dreunen (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://superjoost.substack.com/p/oligopoly-go", "source_slug": "superjoost-playlist" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "In a study Apple published on 8 October 2026, Chinese developers' share of App Store revenue earned outside China rises from 32% in 2020 to 52% in 2025, with 76% of Chinese developers active in overseas markets and 3.8 billion overseas downloads of their apps in the year. Apple commissioned the study, which was written by Ju Heng of the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics and Markus von Wartburg of Analysis Group, and it covers all apps rather than games alone.", "card_text": "Chinese developers earn more than half their App Store money abroad", "year": "2025", "market": "CN", "source": "Apple Newsroom China (8 October 2026)", "link": "https://www.apple.com.cn/newsroom/2026/10/new-data-shows-app-store-ecosystem-is-fueling-developer-success/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Matthew Ball's analysis, in Christopher Dring's interview: of the roughly $10 billion the industry grew between 2021 and 2025, about $4 billion was in China and another $1.5 billion went to Chinese-made games abroad, in places a lot of Western developers and publishers cannot access.", "card_text": "Ball: half the industry's growth went where the West cannot reach", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "The Game Business, Christopher Dring (19 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.thegamebusiness.com/p/the-state-of-video-games-with-matthew", "source_slug": "the-game-business" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Xbox names the analyst Matthew Ball, whose February 2026 interview this page draws on, as its chief strategy officer on 20 May 2026. He was an outside analyst when he gave it. From this point his public comments are an Xbox executive's.", "card_text": "Xbox hires Matthew Ball as chief strategy officer", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Kotaku, Ethan Gach (20 May 2026)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/xbox-taps-everyones-favorite-game-industry-chart-guy-to-lead-strategy-and-save-its-console-2000697952", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "In the first half of 2026 Chinese-made games' home revenue grew 16.31% against the market's 12.17%, taking the share to 87%.", "card_text": "The share climbs to 87%", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GPC, China Game Industry Report for January to June 2026, via China News Service (30 July 2026)", "link": "http://www.ecns.cn/cns-wire/2026-07-30/detail-ihfhvays7504179.shtml", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Niko Partners put China's 2025 games revenue at $51.8 billion, up 5.4% and above $50 billion for the first time, with annual ARPU past $70, and forecast $53.9 billion for 2026 and $59.8 billion by 2030.", "card_text": "China passes $50 billion", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Niko Partners (1 September 2026)", "link": "https://nikopartners.com/chinese-gaming-market-surpasses-50-billion-as-ai-premium-gaming-and-new-monetization-models-reshape-growth/", "source_slug": "niko-partners" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Matthew Ball, then an outside analyst and since May 2026 an Xbox executive, argued that the growth is happening where many Western developers and publishers cannot get in, and that the money does not seem to be reaching developers, publishers, or new games.", "card_text": "Growth that Western publishers cannot reach", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "The Game Business, Christopher Dring (19 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.thegamebusiness.com/p/the-state-of-video-games-with-matthew", "source_slug": "the-game-business" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Chinese players spend differently. In 2025, the average player spent more than $70, 80% of players had tried mini games, and mini games made up nearly 20% of mobile spending.", "card_text": "A market that makes money in ways the West does not", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Niko Partners (1 September 2026)", "link": "https://nikopartners.com/chinese-gaming-market-surpasses-50-billion-as-ai-premium-gaming-and-new-monetization-models-reshape-growth/", "source_slug": "niko-partners" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "China is also the slowest-growing of the big games markets. Niko forecasts just 2.9% growth a year through 2030, which makes 2025's 5.4% a strong year.", "card_text": "The market the West cannot reach is barely growing", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Niko Partners (1 September 2026)", "link": "https://nikopartners.com/chinese-gaming-market-surpasses-50-billion-as-ai-premium-gaming-and-new-monetization-models-reshape-growth/", "source_slug": "niko-partners" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Games not made in China earn about a sixth of China's 350 billion yuan market. That is still about 60 billion yuan, or roughly $8 billion, which is bigger than most countries Western publishers already sell in.", "card_text": "A sixth of China is still a big market", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GPC, 2025 China Game Industry Report (19 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.cadpa.org.cn/3277/202512/41770.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "China's official year-end games industry report, due in December. The number to look for is the share of the home market held by Chinese-made games. It was 87% in the first half, and holding that for the full year would be the highest on record.", "card_text": "Whether the share holds at 87%", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GPC, China Game Industry Report for January to June 2026, via China News Service (30 July 2026)", "link": "http://www.ecns.cn/cns-wire/2026-07-30/detail-ihfhvays7504179.shtml", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Whether China's 2026 revenue hits Niko's $53.9 billion forecast, and whether spending per player keeps rising even though the number of players grew less than 1%.", "card_text": "Niko's 2026 tally against $53.9 billion", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Niko Partners (1 September 2026)", "link": "https://nikopartners.com/chinese-gaming-market-surpasses-50-billion-as-ai-premium-gaming-and-new-monetization-models-reshape-growth/", "source_slug": "niko-partners" } ] }, { "slug": "chinas-banhao-throttles-games", "name": "China is using game approvals as a policy dial", "stage": "Perennial", "category": "Geography & power", "horizon": "perennial", "horizon_group": null, "horizon_line": "A standing lever the state turns up and down.", "markets": [ "CN" ], "what_it_is": "China approved 1,676 domestic games in 2025, up from 468 in the freeze year of 2022, and Niko Partners expects 2026 to pass 2,000 licenses in all. Approvals stopped for nine months in 2018 and for eight months from August 2021, and about 14,000 small studios and related firms closed that year. Foreign games come through a thinner channel: 95 were approved in 2025. What follows approval, identity checks and limits on children's play, is on the playtime-caps page.", "why_it_matters": "Every game published in China needs a government license called a banhao (版号). China cut the number it issued sharply in 2018 and 2021, and has raised it every year since 2022. The size of each batch signals the state's mood toward games.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "China's NPPA approved 1,771 video games in 2025", "link": "https://substack.nikopartners.com/p/chinas-nppa-approved-1771-video-games", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "Chinese gacha games recorded an 8.97% decline, despite growth in the gaming industry as a whole", "link": "https://www.reddit.com/r/gachagaming/comments/1vauysu/china_game_industry_report_for_januaryjune_2026/", "type": "Community", "format": "" }, { "source": "China Game Approval (Banhao) requirements for apps in CN, 2026", "link": "https://clearlaunch.dev/regulations/china-game-approval", "type": "Primary", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "Niko Partners' monthly approval trackers, TechNode, Digital Policy Alert, SCMP", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "Domestic game licenses approved, by year", "series_note": "Approvals fell to 468 in the freeze year of 2022 and have risen every year since, to 1,676 in 2025. The 2026 column runs to July.", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "China approved 1,676 domestic games in 2025, up from 468 in the freeze year of 2022, and ", { "text": "Niko Partners", "href": "https://substack.nikopartners.com/p/china-approves-197-video-games-in" }, " expects 2026 to pass 2,000 licenses in all. Approvals stopped for nine months in 2018 and for eight months from August 2021, and about 14,000 small studios and related firms closed that year. Foreign games come through a thinner channel: 95 were approved in 2025. What follows approval, identity checks and limits on children's play, is on the ", { "text": "playtime-caps page", "href": "/trend/playtime-caps-and-age-gates-for-minors" }, "." ], "series_format": "{n} licenses", "claims": [ { "section": "Definition", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "A banhao (版号) is the license a game needs before it can make money in China. It is issued by the NPPA, China's publishing regulator. Only a Chinese publisher can hold one, so a foreign studio has two choices: team up with a local partner or skip China entirely.", "card_text": "What is a banhao?", "year": "", "market": "", "source": "NPPA", "link": "", "source_slug": "nppa" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Domestic licenses approved in 2019, the first full year after the 2018 halt, with 185 imported titles beside them. These are the regulator's batches as tallied by Niko Partners.", "card_text": "1,385", "year": "2019", "market": "", "source": "NPPA batches, tallied by Niko Partners (February 2020)", "link": "https://nikopartners.com/game-regulations-in-china-everything-you-need-to-know/", "source_slug": "nppa" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Derived, not stated: TechNode wrote that 2022's 468 domestic licenses were a third of 2020's, which puts 2020 at about 1,404. No source read prints the year's total.", "card_text": "~1,404", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "NPPA batches, derived from TechNode's 29 December 2022 comparison", "link": "https://technode.com/2022/12/29/tencent-and-netease-secure-major-game-approvals-at-the-end-of-2022/", "source_slug": "nppa" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Derived, not stated: TechNode wrote that 2022's 468 domestic licenses were 38% fewer than 2021's, which puts 2021 at about 755. Approvals stopped from August 2021 to April 2022.", "card_text": "~755", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "NPPA batches, derived from TechNode's 29 December 2022 comparison", "link": "https://technode.com/2022/12/29/tencent-and-netease-secure-major-game-approvals-at-the-end-of-2022/", "source_slug": "nppa" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Domestic licenses approved in 2022, the freeze year, with 44 imported titles in a single December batch. This is TechNode's tally of the regulator's lists.", "card_text": "468", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "NPPA batches, tallied by TechNode (29 December 2022)", "link": "https://technode.com/2022/12/29/tencent-and-netease-secure-major-game-approvals-at-the-end-of-2022/", "source_slug": "nppa" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Domestic licenses approved in 2023, with 98 imported titles beside them, which TechNode called a twofold increase on 2022.", "card_text": "977", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "NPPA batches, tallied by TechNode (25 December 2023)", "link": "https://technode.com/2023/12/25/china-aims-to-boost-the-gaming-market-after-new-gaming-rules-hit-tencent-and-netease/", "source_slug": "nppa" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Domestic licenses approved in 2024, with 110 imported titles beside them: 1,416 in all, the most in five years by TechNode's count.", "card_text": "1,306", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "NPPA batches, tallied by TechNode (25 December 2024)", "link": "https://technode.com/2024/12/25/china-approves-135-games-in-december-including-neteases-ananta-and-tencents-monster-hunter-outlanders/", "source_slug": "nppa" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Domestic licenses approved in 2025, with 95 imported titles beside them: 1,771 in all, up 25% on 2024 by Niko Partners' count.", "card_text": "1,676", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "NPPA batches, tallied by Niko Partners (15 January 2026)", "link": "https://substack.nikopartners.com/p/chinas-nppa-approved-1771-video-games", "source_slug": "nppa" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Domestic licenses approved in 2026 through the July batch, with 37 imported titles beside them. Niko Partners expects the year to pass 2,000 in all.", "card_text": "1,110", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "NPPA batches, tallied by Niko Partners (30 July 2026)", "link": "https://substack.nikopartners.com/p/china-approves-197-video-games-in", "source_slug": "nppa", "partial": true }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "China licensed more than 8,500 games in 2017, and 37% of them were poker and mahjong titles, a category the regulator would stop approving after the freeze that followed.", "card_text": "More than 8,500 licenses, a third of them poker and mahjong", "year": "2017", "market": "", "source": "Niko Partners, Game regulations in China: everything you need to know (February 2020)", "link": "https://nikopartners.com/game-regulations-in-china-everything-you-need-to-know/", "source_slug": "niko-partners" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Approvals halted on 28 March 2018 while the state reorganized its publishing regulator, now the National Press and Publication Administration, or NPPA. They did not restart until 19 December, when a first batch of 80 domestic games was licensed.", "card_text": "A nine-month halt while the regulator is rebuilt", "year": "2018", "market": "", "source": "Niko Partners, An update on China's games licensing freeze (24 October 2018) and the regulations explainer (February 2020)", "link": "https://nikopartners.com/an-update-on-chinas-games-licensing-freeze/", "source_slug": "niko-partners" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The first full year under the new regime licensed 1,570 games, 1,385 domestic and 185 foreign, against an average of 641 a month before the freeze. TechNode's verdict was that approvals had failed to return to pre-freeze levels.", "card_text": "Approvals stay a fraction of the old volume", "year": "2019", "market": "", "source": "TechNode, Game approvals failed to return to pre-freeze levels last year (2 January 2020)", "link": "https://technode.com/2020/01/02/game-approvals-failed-to-return-to-pre-freeze-levels-last-year/", "source_slug": "technode" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Approvals stopped again in August 2021, after 675 licenses in the seven months before, and stayed stopped for eight months.", "card_text": "A second freeze", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "TechNode, China resumes issuing new gaming licenses after 8 months (12 April 2022)", "link": "https://technode.com/2022/04/12/china-resumes-issuing-new-gaming-licenses-after-8-month-freeze/", "source_slug": "technode" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Approvals resumed on 12 April 2022 with 45 domestic games, and the year closed at 468 domestic licenses, 38% fewer than 2021 and a third of 2020. The first imported titles in a year and a half, 44 of them, came in a single December batch.", "card_text": "The thinnest year on record", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "TechNode, Tencent and NetEase secure major game approvals at the end of 2022 (29 December 2022)", "link": "https://technode.com/2022/12/29/tencent-and-netease-secure-major-game-approvals-at-the-end-of-2022/", "source_slug": "technode" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Draft online-game rules published on 22 December 2023 wiped about $46 billion off Tencent and $17 billion off NetEase in a day. Three days later the NPPA approved 105 domestic games, the first batch over a hundred, to show what it called a supportive stance.", "card_text": "Draft rules, then a record batch to calm the market", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "TechNode, China aims to boost the gaming market after new gaming rules hit Tencent and NetEase (25 December 2023)", "link": "https://technode.com/2023/12/25/china-aims-to-boost-the-gaming-market-after-new-gaming-rules-hit-tencent-and-netease/", "source_slug": "technode" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The NPPA licensed 1,416 games in 2024, 1,306 domestic and 110 imported, the most in five years.", "card_text": "The most licenses in five years", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "TechNode, China approves 135 games in December (25 December 2024)", "link": "https://technode.com/2024/12/25/china-approves-135-games-in-december-including-neteases-ananta-and-tencents-monster-hunter-outlanders/", "source_slug": "technode" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Shanghai's measures for the software industry, published in July 2025, include a pilot under which games developed by foreign companies in Shanghai may be treated as domestic titles, bypassing the import approval process.", "card_text": "Shanghai's pilot treats foreign-made games as domestic", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "TechNode, New Shanghai policy may accelerate foreign game approvals in China (10 July 2025)", "link": "https://technode.com/2025/07/10/new-shanghai-policy-may-accelerate-foreign-game-approvals-in-china/", "source_slug": "technode" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The NPPA approved 1,771 games in 2025, 1,676 domestic and 95 imported, up 25% on 2024 at around 147 a month, with the final batch issued on 25 December.", "card_text": "1,771 in 2025, up a quarter", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Niko Partners, China's NPPA approved 1,771 video games in 2025 (15 January 2026)", "link": "https://substack.nikopartners.com/p/chinas-nppa-approved-1771-video-games", "source_slug": "niko-partners" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "July's batch of 197 took 2026 to 1,110 domestic and 37 imported licenses by the end of the month, and Niko Partners expects the year to pass 2,000 in all.", "card_text": "2026 on course to pass 2,000", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Niko Partners, China approves 197 video games in July 2026 (30 July 2026)", "link": "https://substack.nikopartners.com/p/china-approves-197-video-games-in", "source_slug": "niko-partners" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "TechNode reported that about 14,000 small studios and gaming-related firms went out of business in 2021, the year approvals stopped in August.", "card_text": "A freeze closes studios, not just games", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "TechNode, China's gaming industry is downsizing in game license freeze (23 February 2022)", "link": "https://technode.com/2022/02/23/chinas-gaming-industry-is-downsizing-as-regulators-halt-new-game-licenses-report/", "source_slug": "technode" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Three days after draft rules in December 2023 wiped about $46 billion off Tencent and $17 billion off NetEase, the NPPA approved 105 games in one batch, the first over a hundred, to demonstrate what it called a supportive stance.", "card_text": "The size of a batch is a message", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "TechNode, China aims to boost the gaming market after new gaming rules hit Tencent and NetEase (25 December 2023)", "link": "https://technode.com/2023/12/25/china-aims-to-boost-the-gaming-market-after-new-gaming-rules-hit-tencent-and-netease/", "source_slug": "technode" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Foreign titles come through a separate and thinner pipe, and it can be shut for reasons that have nothing to do with games. No game from Korea was approved between March 2017 and December 2020, and imports as a whole were frozen for a year and a half until December 2022.", "card_text": "Foreign games queue in a pipe that can be closed", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Niko Partners, China 2023 game licenses on track to surpass 2021 and 2022 (4 April 2023)", "link": "https://nikopartners.com/china-2023-game-licenses-on-track-to-surpass-2021-and-2022/", "source_slug": "niko-partners" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Of the 1,771 games approved in 2025, 95 were imported. Almost all of the rise since 2022 has gone to Chinese-made games, so a dial turned up at home is not the same as a market opened to foreign studios.", "card_text": "More licenses does not mean an open door", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Niko Partners, China's NPPA approved 1,771 video games in 2025 (15 January 2026)", "link": "https://substack.nikopartners.com/p/chinas-nppa-approved-1771-video-games", "source_slug": "niko-partners" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The fall from 2017 is overstated by the count. Of that year's 8,500 licenses, 37% were poker and mahjong titles the regulator stopped approving after the freeze, so part of the drop is a category leaving the ledger, not games being refused. The chart starts in 2019 for that reason.", "card_text": "2017 is not the baseline it looks like", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "Niko Partners, Game regulations in China: everything you need to know (February 2020)", "link": "https://nikopartners.com/game-regulations-in-china-everything-you-need-to-know/", "source_slug": "niko-partners" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Shanghai's pilot has yet to produce a foreign-developed game licensed as a domestic title. One would open a route around the import queue for studios willing to develop in the city.", "card_text": "A foreign game licensed as domestic under Shanghai's pilot", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "TechNode, New Shanghai policy may accelerate foreign game approvals in China (10 July 2025)", "link": "https://technode.com/2025/07/10/new-shanghai-policy-may-accelerate-foreign-game-approvals-in-china/", "source_slug": "technode" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "January 2027, when Niko Partners usually publishes its tally of the year. Passing 2,000 licenses would make 2026 the biggest year since the 2018 freeze.", "card_text": "Whether 2026 passes 2,000", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Niko Partners, China approves 197 video games in July 2026 (30 July 2026)", "link": "https://substack.nikopartners.com/p/china-approves-197-video-games-in", "source_slug": "niko-partners" } ] }, { "slug": "generative-ai-in-development-the-enforcement-turn", "name": "Developers are turning against generative AI", "stage": "Dominant", "category": "Technology", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "rewriting-rules", "horizon_line": "Contested. It slows careless adoption and steers AI toward consented, disclosed uses.", "markets": [ "CN", "EU", "Global", "JP" ], "what_it_is": "In the Game Developers Conference's yearly survey, 52% say generative AI is harming the industry, up from 18% two years earlier, though the 2026 survey asked a wider group than developers. The share who use it is 36%, unchanged from a year before, but that hides a split: 30% at game studios and 58% at the publishers and support firms around them. Steam has required developers to declare AI use since 2024, and Sulka Haro's count finds about one in three new releases does. Publishers have begun banning AI-made assets, and EU labeling rules apply from August 2026. Japan differs: 85.8% of developers there say they use it at work.", "why_it_matters": "The share of developers who think generative AI harms the industry rose from 18% to 30% in a year, and a wider 2026 survey found 52%. The argument has moved from surveys into contracts, store rules and law.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "GDC 2026 State of the Game Industry Reveals Impact of Layoffs, Generative AI, and More", "link": "https://gdconf.com/article/gdc-2026-state-of-the-game-industry-reveals-impact-of-layoffs-generative-ai-and-more/", "type": "Primary", "format": "" }, { "source": "AI is a copyright landmine: \"I think we're going to see lawsuits\"", "link": "https://www.gamesradar.com/games/echoing-palworld-dev-video-game-lawyer-says-all-her-clients-have-anti-ai-contracts-because-gamers-hate-it-and-its-a-copyright-landmine-i-think-were-going-to-see-lawsuits/", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "European game developers are more concerned that AI will pressure them to work faster rather than take their job", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/european-game-developers-are-more-concerned-that-ai-will-pressure-them-to-work-faster-rather-than-take-their-job", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "GDC State of the Game Industry (annual), Game Developer, Wired gaming/AI coverage, a16z Games (for the pro-adoption view)", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "What game developers tell the GDC survey about generative AI, % of respondents, by survey year", "series_note": "The share who say generative AI is harming the industry rose from 18% to 30% in a year, on the same kind of sample. The 2026 survey, which found 52%, asked a wider group, so the line to it is dashed. The share who use it rose from 31% to 36% and then stopped.", "series_type": "line", "series_mark": "2026: Wider sample", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "In the ", { "text": "Game Developers Conference's yearly survey", "href": "https://gdconf.com/article/gdc-2026-state-of-the-game-industry-reveals-impact-of-layoffs-generative-ai-and-more/" }, ", 52% say generative AI is harming the industry, up from 18% two years earlier, though the 2026 survey asked a wider group than developers. The share who use it is 36%, unchanged from a year before, but that hides a split: 30% at game studios and 58% at the publishers and support firms around them. Steam has required developers to declare AI use since 2024, and ", { "text": "Sulka Haro's count", "href": "https://fragwyz.substack.com/p/three-years-of-ai-on-steam" }, " finds about one in three new releases does. Publishers have begun banning AI-made assets, and EU labeling rules apply from August 2026. Japan differs: 85.8% of developers there say they use it at work." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Share of game developers who said generative AI was having a negative effect on the industry, in the survey published in January 2024. GDC restated the figure in its 2026 release.", "card_text": "18%", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "GDC State of the Game Industry", "link": "https://gdconf.com/article/gdc-2026-state-of-the-game-industry-reveals-impact-of-layoffs-generative-ai-and-more/", "source_slug": "gdc-state-of-the-game-industry", "series": "Say it is harming the industry" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Share who said generative AI was having a negative effect on the industry, in the survey published in January 2025.", "card_text": "30%", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GDC State of the Game Industry", "link": "https://gdconf.com/article/gdc-2025-state-of-the-game-industry-devs-weigh-in-on-layoffs-ai-and-more/", "source_slug": "gdc-state-of-the-game-industry", "series": "Say it is harming the industry" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Share who said generative AI was having a negative effect on the industry, in the survey published in January 2026. That year GDC widened the survey beyond developers to marketers, executives and investors, so this figure is not like for like with the two before it.", "card_text": "52%", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GDC State of the Game Industry", "link": "https://gdconf.com/article/gdc-2026-state-of-the-game-industry-reveals-impact-of-layoffs-generative-ai-and-more/", "source_slug": "gdc-state-of-the-game-industry", "partial": true, "series": "Say it is harming the industry" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Share of developers who said they used generative AI tools themselves, in the survey published in January 2024, as reported by GDC's sister publication Game Developer.", "card_text": "31%", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "GDC State of the Game Industry", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/developers-still-aren-t-warming-up-to-generative-ai", "source_slug": "gdc-state-of-the-game-industry", "series": "Use it themselves" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Share who said they used generative AI tools themselves, in the survey published in January 2025.", "card_text": "36%", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GDC State of the Game Industry", "link": "https://gdconf.com/article/gdc-2025-state-of-the-game-industry-devs-weigh-in-on-layoffs-ai-and-more/", "source_slug": "gdc-state-of-the-game-industry", "series": "Use it themselves" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Share who said they used generative AI tools in their job, in the survey published in January 2026: 30% at game studios and 58% at publishers, marketing firms and other support companies. The wider 2026 sample means this figure is not like for like with earlier years either.", "card_text": "36%", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GDC State of the Game Industry", "link": "https://gdconf.com/article/gdc-2026-state-of-the-game-industry-reveals-impact-of-layoffs-generative-ai-and-more/", "source_slug": "gdc-state-of-the-game-industry", "partial": true, "series": "Use it themselves" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Valve adds a section on AI to the form every developer fills in before releasing a game on Steam, the main PC games store. Much of what they declare is shown to buyers on the store page. It separates content made with AI during development from content generated while the game runs.", "card_text": "Steam makes developers disclose their use of AI", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Valve, Steam News (9 January 2024)", "link": "https://store.steampowered.com/news/group/4145017/view/3862463747997849618", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Game Developers Conference asks about generative AI for the first time, meaning software that produces images, text, sound or code from a written request. 31% of developers say they use it and another 18% say colleagues do. 84% are concerned about the ethics of it. Only 18% think its effect on the industry is negative.", "card_text": "Half of developers say AI is already used where they work", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Ars Technica, Kyle Orland (18 January 2024)", "link": "https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2024/01/game-developer-survey-50-work-at-a-studio-already-using-generative-ai-tools/", "source_slug": "ars-technica" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "In the next year's survey, 30% say generative AI is having a negative effect on the industry and 13% a positive one, down from 21%. 52% work at a company that has adopted it, and 36% use it themselves.", "card_text": "The share who see harm rises to 30%", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GDC State of the Game Industry 2025 (21 January 2025)", "link": "https://gdconf.com/article/gdc-2025-state-of-the-game-industry-devs-weigh-in-on-layoffs-ai-and-more/", "source_slug": "gdc-state-of-the-game-industry" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Indie Game Awards withdraws two prizes, including Game of the Year, from Clair Obscur: Expedition 33. Its studio had confirmed using generative AI art during production, after stating on its entry form that it had used none.", "card_text": "An awards body takes back its game of the year over AI art", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GamesRadar+, Kaan Serin (21 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamesradar.com/games/rpg/clair-obscur-expedition-33s-controversial-goty-wins-at-the-indie-game-awards-retracted-after-the-rpgs-use-of-generative-ai/", "source_slug": "gamesradar" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Ichiro Lambe of Totally Human Media counts 10,258 games on Steam, about 8% of the store, that disclose using generative AI, up from 7,818 five months earlier and about 1,000 in April 2024. He estimates they have taken in about $660 million.", "card_text": "More than 10,000 Steam games now declare AI use", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GamesRadar+, Ashley Bardhan (22 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamesradar.com/games/steam-games-that-openly-use-generative-ai-earned-usd660-million-this-year-including-call-of-duty-black-ops-6-stellaris-and-more-as-studios-continue-to-rely-on-the-technology/", "source_slug": "gamesradar" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Tim Bender, who runs Hooded Horse, the publisher of the strategy game Manor Lords, says a ban on AI-generated assets is now written into its publishing contracts.", "card_text": "A publisher writes a ban into its contracts", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesRadar+, Austin Wood (8 January 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesradar.com/games/strategy/if-were-publishing-the-game-no-f-ing-ai-assets-ceo-of-manor-lords-publisher-hooded-horse-bans-gen-ai-art-and-calls-it-cancerous/", "source_slug": "gamesradar" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "In the 2026 survey 52% say generative AI is having a negative effect and 7% a positive one. Artists are the most negative at 64%, then designers and writers at 63% and programmers at 59%. The share who use it is unchanged at 36%.", "card_text": "More than half now say AI is harming the industry", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GDC State of the Game Industry 2026 (29 January 2026)", "link": "https://gdconf.com/article/gdc-2026-state-of-the-game-industry-reveals-impact-of-layoffs-generative-ai-and-more/", "source_slug": "gdc-state-of-the-game-industry" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Sulka Haro, a studio head, publishes a count of 53,597 Steam releases over three years. Games declaring AI use went from about 13 a month to about 530, and now make up roughly one in three new releases.", "card_text": "One in three new Steam games declares AI use", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Sulka Haro, Three Years of AI on Steam (13 July 2026)", "link": "https://fragwyz.substack.com/p/three-years-of-ai-on-steam", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The transparency rules in the EU's AI Act, which require AI-generated content to be marked, start to apply on 2 August 2026. AI systems already on the market have until 2 December 2026 to comply with part of them. No source yet shows the rules being applied to a game.", "card_text": "The EU's labeling rules begin to apply", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Future of Life Institute, EU AI Act implementation timeline", "link": "https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/implementation-timeline/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Haley MacLean of Voyer Law says that within the past year clauses banning generative AI have become standard wording in publishing agreements for independent and mid-sized games. All her clients now have them, she says.", "card_text": "A games lawyer says anti-AI clauses are now 'boilerplate'", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesRadar+, Austin Wood (12 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesradar.com/games/echoing-palworld-dev-video-game-lawyer-says-all-her-clients-have-anti-ai-contracts-because-gamers-hate-it-and-its-a-copyright-landmine-i-think-were-going-to-see-lawsuits/", "source_slug": "gamesradar" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Early results from a yearly survey of European games workers find 61% expect AI to bring pressure to work faster, against 35% who fear for their job. 35% of company founders say they have already decided not to hire someone because AI could do the work. The full report is due in November.", "card_text": "European developers fear being sped up more than being replaced", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz, Sophie McEvoy, on Values Value (8 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/european-game-developers-are-more-concerned-that-ai-will-pressure-them-to-work-faster-rather-than-take-their-job", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The game working committee of CADPA, China's audiovisual and digital publishing association, reports that more than eight in ten major Chinese game companies use generative AI in working pipelines, an adoption rate of 86%, across planning, art, coding and quality assurance. It lands in the same week as CESA's 85.8% for Japan. The committee attributes the rate to a mobile-centred market seeking to shorten development cycles and cut costs.", "card_text": "China industry body reports the same adoption rate as Japan", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Kyunghyang Games, Yoon A-reum (19 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.khgames.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=308296", "source_slug": "kyunghyang-games" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A court in China awards miHoYo about $112,000 after an AI voice service reproduced the voices of Genshin Impact characters. It is about a third party's use of a studio's characters rather than a studio's own use of generative AI, and it is the first court decision on this page.", "card_text": "A Chinese court awards damages over AI voice clones of game characters", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Bryant Francis (18 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/mihoyo-awarded-112-000-by-chinese-court-after-ai-voice-service-dupes-genshin-impact-characters", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Valve rewrites the AI section of Steam's release form. Developers no longer declare AI tools used for their own workflow, such as coding helpers, only AI-generated content that ships in the game or its marketing, and content the game generates while it runs.", "card_text": "Steam narrows what developers must declare", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Danielle Riendeau (16 January 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/valve-tweaks-and-clarifies-ai-disclosure-rules-for-steam", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Haley MacLean explains why publishers ban it. AI-generated assets leave a studio open to claims that it copied someone's work, and unable to claim ownership of its own game's art. 'I think we're going to see lawsuits of those types in the coming years,' she says.", "card_text": "A studio may not own what the AI made", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesRadar+, Austin Wood (12 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesradar.com/games/echoing-palworld-dev-video-game-lawyer-says-all-her-clients-have-anti-ai-contracts-because-gamers-hate-it-and-its-a-copyright-landmine-i-think-were-going-to-see-lawsuits/", "source_slug": "gamesradar" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Tim Bender of Hooded Horse says the risk is temporary AI art that was meant to be replaced and was not. It only takes one such image slipping into a build, he says, so his company now advises developers to use no generative AI anywhere in the process.", "card_text": "One stray placeholder is enough", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesRadar+, Austin Wood (8 January 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesradar.com/games/strategy/if-were-publishing-the-game-no-f-ing-ai-assets-ceo-of-manor-lords-publisher-hooded-horse-bans-gen-ai-art-and-calls-it-cancerous/", "source_slug": "gamesradar" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Tanja Loktionova, whose firm runs the European survey, reads its results as pressure before replacement. Workers expect to be asked to work faster and produce more. The effect on hiring has already started.", "card_text": "For workers, the first effect is speed", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz, Sophie McEvoy, on Values Value (8 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/european-game-developers-are-more-concerned-that-ai-will-pressure-them-to-work-faster-rather-than-take-their-job", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Sulka Haro finds that games declaring AI use account for 60% to 90% of the growth in monthly Steam releases. AI, he argues, lowers the barrier to releasing several games, not just one, and most of the extra games are low-effort ones that few people buy.", "card_text": "AI makes it easy to release many cheap games", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Sulka Haro, Three Years of AI on Steam (13 July 2026)", "link": "https://fragwyz.substack.com/p/three-years-of-ai-on-steam", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "GDC says it widened its 2026 survey to represent the whole industry, adding marketers, executives and investors, and the number of responses fell from more than 3,000 to more than 2,300. So the rise from 30% to 52% is not a like-for-like comparison. The flat 36% also hides a gap: 30% at game studios against 58% elsewhere.", "card_text": "The 2026 survey did not ask the same people", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GDC State of the Game Industry 2026 (29 January 2026)", "link": "https://gdconf.com/article/gdc-2026-state-of-the-game-industry-reveals-impact-of-layoffs-generative-ai-and-more/", "source_slug": "gdc-state-of-the-game-industry" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The first survey by CESA, Japan's games industry body, finds 85.8% of Japanese developers using generative AI for work, and 63.0% using it daily. The collapse in sentiment is a finding about the mostly Western audience of one American conference.", "card_text": "In Japan, most developers use it every day", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Inven Global, Minwoo Kang, on CESA (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.invenglobal.com/articles/26191/858-of-japanese-game-developers-use-generative-ai-for-work-cesas-first-survey", "source_slug": "inven-global" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Lambe's estimate that AI-disclosing games on Steam have taken in about $660 million, with twelve of them earning eight figures, cuts against the idea that players punish AI. Haro finds such games fail at about the same rate as everything else, because almost no games make money. Nobody can count the games that use AI and do not say so.", "card_text": "Games that declare AI use still sell", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GamesRadar+, Ashley Bardhan (22 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamesradar.com/games/steam-games-that-openly-use-generative-ai-earned-usd660-million-this-year-including-call-of-duty-black-ops-6-stellaris-and-more-as-studios-continue-to-rely-on-the-technology/", "source_slug": "gamesradar" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "2 December 2026, when AI systems that were already on the market must comply with the EU's content-marking rule. The thing to watch is whether any regulator applies it to a game.", "card_text": "The EU's second deadline", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Future of Life Institute, EU AI Act implementation timeline", "link": "https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/implementation-timeline/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Late January 2027, when GDC usually publishes its survey. It will be the first edition that can be compared with the widened 2026 one.", "card_text": "GDC's next survey", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "GDC State of the Game Industry 2026 (29 January 2026)", "link": "https://gdconf.com/article/gdc-2026-state-of-the-game-industry-reveals-impact-of-layoffs-generative-ai-and-more/", "source_slug": "gdc-state-of-the-game-industry" } ] }, { "slug": "the-rise-of-ai-companions-and-co-playable-npcs", "name": "AI teammates are reaching players in short tests", "stage": "Emerging", "category": "Technology", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "prolongs-h1", "horizon_line": "Tested inside Fortnite and PUBG, where it fills a team. Nothing is a permanent feature yet.", "markets": [ "EU", "Global", "KR", "US" ], "what_it_is": "An AI Darth Vader appeared in Fortnite in May 2025, was made to swear within hours, and drew a labor charge from the actors' union. In June 2026 Krafton put an AI squadmate into PUBG for a two-week test, and Epic has since given 36 Fortnite characters AI voices made with consenting actors. None is yet a permanent feature, and no company has said how many players used it. Quantic Foundry's survey found 83% of players opposed to AI-generated dialogue.", "why_it_matters": "Game characters have always followed scripts. A new kind runs on chatbot technology: it listens, answers aloud and sometimes plays as a teammate. Several of the biggest companies are testing it, which raises questions about whose voice it uses and what it may say.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "How KRAFTON Built PUBG Ally, a Co-Playable Character Powered by NVIDIA ACE", "link": "https://developer.nvidia.com/blog/how-krafton-built-pubg-ally-a-co-playable-character-powered-by-nvidia-ace/", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "r/gamedev Policy on AI Use", "link": "https://www.reddit.com/r/gamedev/comments/1vrnqyt/rgamedev_policy_on_ai_use/", "type": "Community", "format": "" }, { "source": "dev stress-tests their game's voice recognition after a player calls it bad", "link": "https://www.tiktok.com/@monchiistudio/video/7676265366301019393", "type": "Community", "format": "video" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "VGC and The Verge AI-in-games coverage, Epic's Creator ecosystem announcements, Inworld/ElevenLabs product news, Kotaku (critical coverage)", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "", "series_note": "", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "An AI Darth Vader appeared in Fortnite in May 2025, was made to swear within hours, and drew a labor charge from the actors' union. In June 2026 Krafton put an AI squadmate into PUBG for a two-week test, and Epic has since given 36 Fortnite characters AI voices made with consenting actors. None is yet a permanent feature, and no company has said how many players used it. ", { "text": "Quantic Foundry's survey", "href": "https://www.gamesmarket.global/quantic-foundry-most-gamers-are-negative-about-the-use-of-gen-ai-in-video-games/" }, " found 83% of players opposed to AI-generated dialogue." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Definition", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "An NPC, or non-player character, is any character in a game you do not control, such as a shopkeeper, an enemy, or a sidekick. A co-playable character is a new kind of NPC powered by AI. Instead of standing around waiting for you to talk to it, it plays alongside you: it follows your directions, makes its own decisions, and reacts to what is happening.", "card_text": "What is a co-playable character?", "year": "", "market": "", "source": "Krafton IR", "link": "", "source_slug": "krafton-ir" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Microsoft's Xbox announces a multi-year partnership with Inworld AI to build tools for game characters whose dialogue and quests are generated as the game runs, rather than written in advance.", "card_text": "Xbox signs up an AI character company", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Microsoft Game Dev, Haiyan Zhang (6 November 2023)", "link": "https://developer.microsoft.com/en-us/games/articles/2023/11/xbox-and-inworld-ai-partnership-announcement/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "At the Game Developers Conference in March 2024, Ubisoft shows NEO NPC, a prototype of game characters that hold a spoken conversation with the player.", "card_text": "Ubisoft shows characters you can talk to", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr (21 November 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/ubisoft-s-first-playable-generative-ai-experience-is-an-r-d-experiment-called-teammates-", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "At the CES trade show, the chip maker Nvidia widens its ACE toolkit from conversation to what it calls autonomous game characters, which perceive, plan and act like human players. It names the makers of PUBG, inZOI and Naraka: Bladepoint as partners.", "card_text": "Nvidia moves from characters that talk to characters that act", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Nvidia GeForce News (6 January 2025)", "link": "https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/geforce/news/nvidia-ace-autonomous-ai-companions-pubg-naraka-bladepoint/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Epic Games adds a Darth Vader to Fortnite who converses with players in an AI copy of the late James Earl Jones's voice. Players quickly get him to swear. On 19 May the actors' union SAG-AFTRA files a labor charge against an Epic subsidiary, saying AI had replaced its members' voice work without notice or bargaining.", "card_text": "An AI Darth Vader in Fortnite is made to swear within hours", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Game Informer, Wesley LeBlanc (19 May 2025)", "link": "https://gameinformer.com/2025/05/19/sag-aftra-files-unfair-labor-practice-complaint-against-epic-games-due-to-ai-darth-vader", "source_slug": "game-informer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "California's law on companion chatbots, signed in October 2025, does not cover a bot that is a feature of a video game and only replies about the game, provided it cannot discuss mental health, self-harm, sex or unrelated subjects.", "card_text": "California's chatbot law exempts game characters that stay on topic", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "California Legislative Information, SB 243", "link": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=202520260SB243", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Krafton, the South Korean maker of the shooter PUBG, declares itself an AI First company. A week later it shows PUBG Ally, an AI squadmate that can fetch requested items and revive fallen teammates.", "card_text": "Krafton calls itself an 'AI First' company and shows an AI teammate", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Krafton, press release (30 October 2025)", "link": "https://www.krafton.com/en/news/press/krafton-reveals-playtest-plans-for-pubg-ally-built-with-nvidia-ace/", "source_slug": "krafton-ir" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Ubisoft reveals Teammates, its first playable experiment with generative AI: a shooter whose squadmates take spoken orders. It has been tested with a few hundred players. 'They can improvise, but we still set the rules and direct the story,' Ubisoft says of the characters.", "card_text": "Ubisoft tests AI squadmates with a few hundred players", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Ubisoft News, Daniel O'Connor (21 November 2025)", "link": "https://news.ubisoft.com/en-us/article/3mWlITIuWuu0MoVuR6o8ps/ubisoft-reveals-teammates-an-ai-experiment-to-change-the-game", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A survey of 1,799 players by Quantic Foundry finds 85% negative about generative AI in games. 83% oppose AI-generated dialogue, and 77% oppose AI-generated quests, up from 46% a year earlier.", "card_text": "Most surveyed players oppose AI-written dialogue", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GamesMarkt, Marcel Kleffmann, on Quantic Foundry (22 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamesmarket.global/quantic-foundry-most-gamers-are-negative-about-the-use-of-gen-ai-in-video-games/", "source_slug": "quantic-foundry" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Epic opens a tool called Conversations to the people who build games inside Fortnite. It lets them make characters that players talk to by voice. Epic bans romantic personas and any that give medical or mental-health advice, and creators cannot publish games that use the tool while it is experimental.", "card_text": "Fortnite lets creators build characters that talk", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Wccftech, Alessio Palumbo (19 April 2026)", "link": "https://wccftech.com/fortnite-uefn-ai-npc-conversations-gemini-elevenlabs/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "PUBG Ally runs as a two-week test from 17 June, in a side mode, on one map, for players with an Nvidia RTX graphics card. The AI partner, Ella, takes voice commands in Korean, Chinese and English. Krafton calls it an early step.", "card_text": "PUBG's AI teammate reaches players for two weeks", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Krafton, press release (16 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.krafton.com/en/news/press/krafton-introduces-pubg-ally-beta-test/", "source_slug": "krafton-ir" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Epic announces AI voices for 36 of its own Fortnite characters, made with independent actors who agreed to have voice models built from their performances. It schedules Conversations to leave its experimental stage on 30 July.", "card_text": "Epic gives 36 Fortnite characters AI voices", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Chronicle, Chris Scullion (17 July 2026)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/fortnite-has-started-adding-ai-voices-to-its-npcs-for-an-upcoming-conversations-feature/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Commission's draft KIDS Act of 17 September 2026 covers AI companions and chatbots reachable by minors. They may not use designs that simulate human relationships in ways likely to create emotional dependency, may not carry a child's earlier conversations into later ones by default, must be tested for risks to children before launch and monitored afterwards, and are open to under-13s only through parental control tools. A chatbot built into a game may not switch on automatically, may not be pushed at children, and must be easy to turn off. Enforcement runs through the AI Act. It is a proposal.", "card_text": "The European Commission writes rules for talking characters inside games", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "European Commission, The KIDS Act explained (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/faqs/kids-act-explained", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "SAG-AFTRA's complaint over Darth Vader was that an AI voice had taken work from its members. Video Games Chronicle notes that it is unclear whether the 36 actors who agreed to Epic's voice models are union members.", "card_text": "AI voices move work outside the union contract", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Chronicle, Chris Scullion (17 July 2026)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/fortnite-has-started-adding-ai-voices-to-its-npcs-for-an-upcoming-conversations-feature/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Tom Souter of Rogue argues that an AI partner solves the practical problems of team games: finding people to play with, matching their skill, and avoiding abuse. In doing so, he writes, it makes it normal to play a team game alone.", "card_text": "A teammate who is always available", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Rogue, Tom Souter (22 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.rogue.site/editorials/pubgs-ai-teammates/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "A study of 130 players, not yet peer reviewed, found that characters driven by a language model made players feel freer but work harder. They lowered players' trust and the ease of use of the game, with no significant gain in overall experience.", "card_text": "Open-ended characters ask more of the player", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Hsu and colleagues, arXiv (April 2026)", "link": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.10107", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Epic bans romantic and medical personas and puts talking to AI characters behind a parental control. California's law protects game characters only while they stay on the subject of the game. The rules are being set before the characters are common.", "card_text": "Platforms are writing rules for what a character may be", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Wccftech, Alessio Palumbo (19 April 2026)", "link": "https://wccftech.com/fortnite-uefn-ai-npc-conversations-gemini-elevenlabs/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "PUBG Ally was a two-week test, and Krafton says it will refine it before full-scale implementation, with no date. Ubisoft describes its version as an experiment. No company has published how many players used any of these characters. Nvidia cites feedback from over a thousand players, and Ubisoft a few hundred.", "card_text": "It has not shipped as a permanent feature anywhere", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Krafton, press release (16 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.krafton.com/en/news/press/krafton-introduces-pubg-ally-beta-test/", "source_slug": "krafton-ir" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Paul Kelly of PCGamesN played the PUBG test. His AI partner gave contradictory callouts, failed to warn him of an enemy in her line of sight, and refused to talk about anything off topic.", "card_text": "A hands-on review found the teammate poor", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PCGamesN, Paul Kelly (22 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.pcgamesn.com/playerunknowns-battlegrounds/ai-teammate", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Quantic Foundry's founder Nick Yee calls so lopsided a negative response rare. The survey was optional and its sample is mostly committed PC and console players, two thirds of them men and nearly half aged 25 to 34. That is not the younger audience of Fortnite.", "card_text": "Players say they do not want it", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GamesMarkt, Marcel Kleffmann, on Quantic Foundry (22 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamesmarket.global/quantic-foundry-most-gamers-are-negative-about-the-use-of-gen-ai-in-video-games/", "source_slug": "quantic-foundry" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Late 2026. Epic's tool for characters that talk back, called Conversations, left its experimental stage on 30 July 2026, so creators can now publish islands that use it. These would be the first such characters to reach players outside a short test.", "card_text": "The first player-made Fortnite islands with talking characters", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Chronicle, Chris Scullion (17 July 2026)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/fortnite-has-started-adding-ai-voices-to-its-npcs-for-an-upcoming-conversations-feature/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "1 July 2027, when operators of companion chatbots must first report to California under the new law. It will test whether any game character falls outside the exemption for bots that stay on topic.", "card_text": "The first reports under California's chatbot law", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "California Legislative Information, SB 243", "link": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=202520260SB243", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "ai-disclosure-fights-and-unprotected-creative-labor", "name": "Creative workers are fighting over AI consent and disclosure", "stage": "Emerging", "category": "Technology", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "rewriting-rules", "horizon_line": "Writes the rules any AI-native future will have to follow.", "markets": [ "FR", "JP", "PL", "UK", "US" ], "what_it_is": "SAG-AFTRA's members ratified the 2025 Interactive Media Agreement in July 2025, with consent and disclosure rules for AI copies and a 15.17% pay rise. Since then a former Saber Interactive writer has said she was replaced with ChatGPT, which Saber denies, and Twitch has switched on AI training for all streamers' content by default. Several studios admitted AI use only after being caught. A voice actors' campaign group says 80% of voice work falls outside any union contract.", "why_it_matters": "In 2025 US video game actors ended a strike of nearly a year with a contract requiring consent and disclosure before a studio uses an AI copy of a performer. Most arguments since involve people that contract does not cover, such as writers and streamers.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "SAG-AFTRA Overwhelmingly Approves Video Game Agreement, Marking Official End To Nearly Yearlong Strike", "link": "https://deadline.com/2025/07/sag-aftra-video-game-agreement-approved-strike-1236453741/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "Saber's AI Rideshare Stimulator controversy almost closes on high note", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/gaming-industry/sabers-ai-rideshare-stimulator-controversy-almost-closes-on-high-note-with-ceo-apology-then-he-calls-portal-scribe-who-mocked-him-an-unsuccessful-writer/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "Report: EA's NHL 27 is using genAI to create voiceover, claims a sports commentator", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/report-ea-s-nhl-27-is-using-genai-to-create-voiceover-claims-a-sports-commentator", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Oct 2026", "where_to_follow": "SAG-AFTRA's interactive media page, Deadline/Variety labor desks, Game Developer labor coverage", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "", "series_note": "", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "SAG-AFTRA's members ratified the ", { "text": "2025 Interactive Media Agreement", "href": "https://variety.com/2025/gaming/news/video-game-actors-strike-contract-ratified-sag-aftra-1236451291/" }, " in July 2025, with consent and disclosure rules for AI copies and a 15.17% pay rise. Since then a former Saber Interactive writer has said she was replaced with ChatGPT, which Saber denies, and Twitch has switched on AI training for all streamers' content by default. Several studios admitted AI use only after being caught. A voice actors' campaign group says 80% of voice work falls outside any union contract." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "SAG-AFTRA, the American actors' union, signs an agreement with the AI voice company Replica Studios. It sets minimum pay and requires the performer's consent each time a copy of their voice is used in a new project.", "card_text": "The actors union signs its first AI voice deal for games", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Deadline, Katie Campione (9 January 2024)", "link": "https://deadline.com/2024/01/sag-aftra-deal-replica-studios-ai-voice-replication-video-games-1235700341/", "source_slug": "deadline" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Valve makes developers declare any use of generative AI when they submit a game to Steam, and shows the declaration on the game's store page.", "card_text": "Steam requires games to say when they use AI", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "The Verge, Jon Porter (10 January 2024)", "link": "https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/10/24032678/valve-steam-generative-ai-rules-disclosure-pre-generated-live-illegal-content-copyright", "source_slug": "the-verge" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "SAG-AFTRA members who do voice and motion-capture work for games strike from 26 July 2024. The dispute is over protection against AI copies of their performances.", "card_text": "Video game actors go on strike over AI", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr (12 June 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/sag-aftra-reaches-tentative-agreement-with-major-studios-that-includes-ai-guardrails-", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Epic Games adds a Darth Vader who speaks in an AI copy of James Earl Jones's voice, with his estate's consent. SAG-AFTRA files a labor charge anyway. Its argument is that consent does not remove the duty to bargain over uses that replace its members' work.", "card_text": "The union files a charge over Fortnite's AI Darth Vader", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Entertainment Weekly, Kevin P. Sullivan (19 May 2025)", "link": "https://tech.yahoo.com/gaming/articles/f-bombs-sag-complaints-fortnite-234147747.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Polish developer 11 bit studios admits that its game The Alters shipped with AI-generated text left in by mistake and AI-translated subtitles, none of it declared. 'We should have simply let you know,' it says.", "card_text": "A studio apologizes for AI it did not disclose", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Danielle Riendeau (30 June 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/11-bit-apologizes-for-not-disclosing-gen-ai-use-in-the-alters", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Members approve the 2025 Interactive Media Agreement by 95.04% to 4.96%. It requires consent and disclosure before an AI copy of a performer is used, lets performers suspend that consent during a strike, and raises pay by 15.17% at once with three further rises of 3%.", "card_text": "Actors ratify the new contract and the strike ends", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Variety, Jennifer Maas (9 July 2025)", "link": "https://variety.com/2025/gaming/news/video-game-actors-strike-contract-ratified-sag-aftra-1236451291/", "source_slug": "variety" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Indie Game Awards withdraws Game of the Year and Debut Game from Clair Obscur: Expedition 33. Its French studio, Sandfall Interactive, had agreed on entry that no generative AI was used, and later confirmed that it was.", "card_text": "An awards body takes back two prizes over a false no-AI declaration", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Chronicle, Andy Robinson (22 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/clair-obscur-expedition-33-game-of-the-year-award-pulled-after-admitting-to-generative-ai-use/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Stella Sacco, formerly lead writer on Saber Interactive's Rideshare Stimulator, says she was replaced with ChatGPT partway through development and that the game's passenger voices are AI, with nothing declared on Steam. Saber denies replacing any writer with AI. Within days it adds a long AI disclosure to the store page, covering voice generation, some translation and AI-made missions.", "card_text": "A former writer says Saber replaced her with ChatGPT", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Chronicle, Chris Scullion (12 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/former-saber-writer-claims-she-was-replaced-by-chatgpt-during-development-on-its-ridesharing-game/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Twitch adds a setting called 'Training for generative AI' and switches it on by default, so every streamer's content can be used to train Amazon's models unless they turn it off. 'If this was opt-in, nobody would opt in,' its product chief says. A streamer files a class action against Twitch and Amazon the following week.", "card_text": "Twitch opts every streamer in to AI training", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "TechCrunch, Amanda Silberling (12 August 2026)", "link": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/12/amazon-will-train-on-twitch-streamers-content-by-default-unless-they-opt-out/", "source_slug": "techcrunch" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "John Buccigross, the play-by-play voice of EA's NHL 27, says on a podcast that EA played him AI-generated lines in his own voice. EA confirms it, saying both commentators gave their full consent and also recorded more than 50 sessions in person.", "card_text": "EA confirms AI-generated commentary in NHL 27", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Diego Argüello (10 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/report-ea-s-nhl-27-is-using-genai-to-create-voiceover-claims-a-sports-commentator", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Tokyo District Court holds on 30 September 2026 that a person's voice, like their likeness, can fall within the protection of publicity rights, in a suit by the voice actor Kenjiro Tsuda seeking removal of TikTok videos that imitated his voice with generative AI. It dismisses the removal claim, because the videos had already been taken down, and does not rule on whether they infringed. It is reported as the first Japanese ruling to treat voice this way.", "card_text": "A Tokyo court says a voice can be a publicity right", "year": "2026", "market": "JP", "source": "ITmedia (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.itmedia.co.jp/news/article/2609/30/2000001892/", "source_slug": "itmedia" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Jagex shows a trailer for RuneScape 3's Dragon Slayer 2 quest at RuneFest in October 2026, players identify generative AI imagery in it from a six-fingered knight, and the studio pulls the trailer and apologizes. Jagex says the work was made by a trusted external partner, so the AI reached a published trailer through a contractor rather than through the studio's own pipeline.", "card_text": "Jagex pulls a RuneScape trailer made with generative AI by a contractor", "year": "2026", "market": "UK", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz (5 October 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/jagex-responds-to-use-of-generative-ai-in-runescape-trailer-made-by-trusted-external-partner", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Duncan Crabtree-Ireland, who led the union's negotiation, says the contract closes the loop with the rest of entertainment on informed consent and fair pay for AI copies. Sarah Elmaleh, who chaired the negotiating committee, calls the right to suspend consent during a strike the linchpin, because without it a performer's own copy could be used to break their strike.", "card_text": "Game companies now owe actors what film and TV do", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Variety, Jennifer Maas (9 July 2025)", "link": "https://variety.com/2025/gaming/news/video-game-actors-strike-contract-ratified-sag-aftra-1236451291/", "source_slug": "variety" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The National Association of Voice Actors says 80% of voice work is freelance and not covered by union rules. It lists more than 100 actors who have found copies of their voice online, and has published a free AI clause for non-union contracts. The figure covers all voice work, not games alone, and comes from a group that campaigns on the issue.", "card_text": "Most voice work is outside any union contract", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Los Angeles Times, Nilesh Christopher (27 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2026-08-27/hollywood-actors-clash-over-ai-voice-clones", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Several of the loudest cases were about not saying so, rather than about using AI: 11 bit, Saber, and the studio behind Clair Obscur all disclosed after someone else pointed it out. The games lawyer Haley MacLean's advice to studios, quoted by GamesRadar+, is not to touch generative AI at all, because it is not worth the legal liability.", "card_text": "Saying so late is now a story in itself", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesRadar+, Ashley Bardhan (14 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesradar.com/games/simulation/saber-finally-adds-ai-disclosure-to-rideshare-stimulator-amid-ceos-public-feud-with-a-former-writer-who-claims-she-was-replaced-by-chatgpt/", "source_slug": "gamesradar" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Twitch presented enrolling every streamer as adding a setting. Asked whether past streams had already been used for training, its product chief said he did not know. Streamers have no contract like the actors', so their remedy is a lawsuit.", "card_text": "Platforms treat creators' work as training material by default", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "TechCrunch, Amanda Silberling (12 August 2026)", "link": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/12/amazon-will-train-on-twitch-streamers-content-by-default-unless-they-opt-out/", "source_slug": "techcrunch" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Arc Raiders used AI voices built from actors who were paid a licensing fee, and said so on Steam from launch. Players objected anyway, and its studio later re-recorded many lines with people. 'A real professional actor is better than AI,' its chief executive said. The fight is not only about being told.", "card_text": "Consent and disclosure did not stop the backlash", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Kotaku, Zack Zwiezen (13 March 2026)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/arc-raiders-replaced-ai-generated-content-human-recorded-dialogue-voices-2000678774", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The NHL 27 case does not fit a story of people left out. Buccigross consented, was paid, and said of the AI lines: 'If that means less work but the same check, I'll take it.' No source says whether the actors' contract covers sports commentators. Saber, likewise, disputes its former writer's account, and she left the company a year before the actors' agreement existed.", "card_text": "The commentator with the AI voice was not complaining", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Diego Argüello (10 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/report-ea-s-nhl-27-is-using-genai-to-create-voiceover-claims-a-sports-commentator", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "No one publishes how many people who work on games are covered by the agreement, how many disputes there are each year, or how many games disclosed AI late. Outside the US the gap is wider. Equity, the British performers' union, has no collective agreement for games, only a recommended rate card, and says many game performers are not given a contract at all.", "card_text": "Nobody counts who is covered", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Equity, guidance for video game performers", "link": "https://www.equity.org.uk/advice-and-support/sector-specific-advice/video-games/working-as-a-video-game-performer/negotiating-rates-contracts-and-terms", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The NO FAKES Act, a bill giving everyone a federal right over AI copies of their voice and likeness, passed a Senate committee unanimously in June 2026 and awaits a vote. It would reach streamers and non-union performers, whom the actors' contract cannot.", "card_text": "Whether Congress votes on a federal right over AI copies", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "JD Supra, Husch Blackwell (20 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/a-federal-shift-in-ai-and-the-right-of-9523916/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "During 2027, the first rulings in the class action over Twitch's default AI training setting. It is the first test of whether a platform can enroll creators' work unless they object. No hearing date has been published.", "card_text": "The streamers' lawsuit against Twitch", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Engadget, Jackson Chen (23 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.engadget.com/2242283/twitch-amazon-hit-with-lawsuit-for-training-ai-with-streamers-content/", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "app-store-unbundling-under-court-supervision", "name": "Apple and Google are being forced to open their stores", "stage": "Dominant", "category": "Platform & distribution", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "rewriting-rules", "horizon_line": "Six years of lawsuits have cut the platform tax by a few points. So far Apple and Google are containing the rest.", "markets": [ "BR", "EU", "IN", "JP", "KR", "UK", "US" ], "what_it_is": "Google lost its US case outright and must carry rival stores inside its own. The first arrived in August 2026. Apple won most of its US case but was found in contempt in 2025 for getting around the one order it lost, and the Supreme Court will hear its appeal. Apple's new European terms started on 1 October 2026, and eighteen organizations say they still break the law. Few players have switched. Epic's Steve Allison says its mobile store is far short of its target.", "why_it_matters": "Apple and Google long took up to 30% of spending in mobile games. Courts and lawmakers in the US, Europe, Japan and South Korea have ordered them to allow rival stores or outside payment, and both have answered with lower fees rather than none.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Following Epic loss, Google has started hosting rival app stores in Play Store", "link": "https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2026/08/third-party-app-stores-are-rolling-out-in-google-play-but-theres-only-one-right-now/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "'That is not acceptable': Judge orders Google to make rival app store installs easier", "link": "https://www.theverge.com/policy/979852/that-is-not-acceptable-judge-orders-google-to-make-rival-app-store-installs-easier", "type": "Community", "format": "" }, { "source": "Apple announces changes to iOS in Japan", "link": "https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/12/apple-announces-changes-to-ios-in-japan/", "type": "Community", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Oct 2026", "where_to_follow": "The Verge policy desk, MacRumors legal coverage, mobilegamer.biz, European Commission DMA enforcement updates, Japan Fair Trade Commission MSCA enforcement", "status_label": "Status", "measure_label": "What Apple and Google must allow", "row_label": "", "series_label": "Apple's cut of a sale made outside its own payment system, by market", "series_note": "Where Apple has been made to allow outside payment it still takes 15% to 26% of the sale. The exception is the United States, where a court has set the fee at zero for now.", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "Google lost its US case outright and must carry rival stores inside its own. The first arrived in August 2026. Apple won most of its US case but was found in contempt in 2025 for getting around the one order it lost, and the Supreme Court will hear its appeal. Apple's new European terms started on 1 October 2026, and eighteen organizations say they still break the law. Few players have switched. ", { "text": "Epic's Steve Allison", "href": "https://mobilegamer.biz/epic-is-having-a-tougher-time-than-expected-breaking-apple-and-googles-store-duopoly/" }, " says its mobile store is far short of its target." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Apple may take in the United States from a sale made through a link to the developer's own website: nothing, since a court's contempt ruling in April 2025. It has asked the court to allow up to 15%, and the Supreme Court will hear its appeal.", "card_text": "0%", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Apple's terms in each market, as it announced them or as reported", "link": "https://mobilegamer.biz/epic-claims-victory-as-us-court-nukes-apples-control-over-app-store-payments/", "source_slug": "", "period": "US" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Apple takes in the European Union from a sale made through a link out, since 1 October 2026.", "card_text": "15%", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Apple's terms in each market, as it announced them or as reported", "link": "https://mobilegamer.biz/apples-new-eu-app-store-terms-still-breach-the-dma-says-european-developer-coalition/", "source_slug": "", "period": "EU" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Apple takes in Japan from a sale made through a link to the developer's website, under the terms it announced in December 2025. Smaller developers pay 10%.", "card_text": "15%", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Apple's terms in each market, as it announced them or as reported", "link": "https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/12/apple-announces-changes-to-ios-in-japan/", "source_slug": "", "period": "Japan" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Apple and Google charge in South Korea on a payment made through another company's billing system: up to 26%.", "card_text": "26%", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Apple's terms in each market, as it announced them or as reported", "link": "https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10840244", "source_slug": "", "period": "South Korea" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Google must carry rival app stores inside its own Play store and give them access to its catalog of apps, under a 2024 court order. The first, Aptoide, arrived on 10 August 2026.", "card_text": "Google: rival stores ordered in", "year": "2026", "market": "US", "source": "Ars Technica, Ryan Whitwam (10 August 2026)", "link": "https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2026/08/third-party-app-stores-are-rolling-out-in-google-play-but-theres-only-one-right-now/", "source_slug": "ars-technica" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Apple must let apps link to their own web checkout, and since a contempt ruling in April 2025 it may take no cut of those sales. An appeals court has since said it may charge something. Apple has asked for up to 15%, and the judge has not ruled.", "card_text": "Apple: outside payment links, no fee for now", "year": "2025", "market": "US", "source": "mobilegamer.biz, Neil Long (1 May 2025)", "link": "https://mobilegamer.biz/epic-claims-victory-as-us-court-nukes-apples-control-over-app-store-payments/", "source_slug": "mobilegamer-biz" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Apple must allow rival stores, downloads from the web, outside payment and links out. Since 1 October 2026 it charges 15% on sales made through a link out and 5% on sales in apps distributed outside its store. Eighteen organizations told the Commission on 8 September that the terms still breach the law, and the Commission has not said whether it will close the case it opened in 2025.", "card_text": "Open, with new fees in force", "year": "2026", "market": "EU", "source": "mobilegamer.biz, Vikki Blake (9 September 2026)", "link": "https://mobilegamer.biz/apples-new-eu-app-store-terms-still-breach-the-dma-says-european-developer-coalition/", "source_slug": "mobilegamer-biz" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Japan's Mobile Software Competition Act took full effect on 18 December 2025. Apple now allows rival stores, outside payment and links out in Japan, and cut its own store's commission to 10% or 21%, plus 5% when its payment system is used.", "card_text": "Opened by law, not by a court", "year": "2025", "market": "JP", "source": "Apple Newsroom (17 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/12/apple-announces-changes-to-ios-in-japan/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Google must let apps use outside billing for apps and in-app purchases and may not stop them pointing users elsewhere. The competition regulator ordered this in 2022, and an appeals tribunal upheld it in March 2025 while cutting the fine from 9.36 billion to about 2.17 billion rupees.", "card_text": "Google: outside billing ordered, on appeal", "year": "2025", "market": "IN", "source": "National Company Law Appellate Tribunal, Competition Appeal (AT) No. 04 of 2023 (28 March 2025)", "link": "https://efiling.nclat.gov.in/nclat/order_view.php?path=L05DTEFUX0RvY3VtZW50cy9DSVNfRG9jdW1lbnRzL2Nhc2Vkb2Mvb3JkZXJzL0RFTEhJLzIwMjUtMDMtMjgvY291cnRzLzEvZGFpbHkvMTc0NDgwNzE1OTk1Mzk0MjI1NzY3ZmZhNGY3MmQ1YzEucGRm", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The regulator compels nothing yet. It gave Apple and Google a special legal status in October 2025 that lets it set rules for them, and in June 2026 it consulted on forcing both to let apps point users to outside payment, with a decision due later in 2026. The courts moved first: in September 2026 a tribunal approved a £260 million settlement between Google and UK app developers, £160 million of it for developers. A consumer claim goes to trial on 5 October 2026.", "card_text": "Still consulting, but paying out", "year": "2026", "market": "UK", "source": "PocketGamer.biz, Isa Muhammad (16 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/google-approves-260m-settlement-with-uk-app-developers/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "South Korea was first to ban app stores from forcing their own payment systems, in 2021. Apple and Google responded by charging up to 26% on outside payments. The regulator proposed fines in October 2023 and had still not imposed them in August 2026.", "card_text": "Law passed in 2021, fines still not imposed", "year": "2026", "market": "KR", "source": "The Korea Herald, Jie Ye-eun (13 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10840244", "source_slug": "korea-herald" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Apple has allowed rival app stores, outside payment and links out in Brazil since 18 June 2026, under an agreement with the competition regulator CADE. It cut its store's commission to 10% or 21%, plus 5% when its own payment system is used.", "card_text": "Opened by a competition settlement", "year": "2026", "market": "BR", "source": "Apple Newsroom (18 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/06/apple-announces-changes-to-ios-in-brazil/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "In the case brought by Epic Games, the maker of Fortnite, Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers finds for Apple on nine of ten counts. On the tenth she orders Apple to stop banning apps from linking to their own payment pages.", "card_text": "A US judge rules for Apple on nine of ten counts, and against it on one", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "Courthouse News, Carly Nairn (11 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.courthousenews.com/apples-fight-over-commissions-for-linked-out-app-store-purchases-continues-in-federal-court/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "In Epic's separate case against Google, a jury unanimously answers yes to every question put to it, finding that Google illegally maintained a monopoly over app distribution and payments on Android phones.", "card_text": "A jury finds against Google on every question", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "The Verge, Sean Hollister (11 December 2023)", "link": "https://www.theverge.com/23994174/epic-google-trial-jury-verdict-monopoly-google-play", "source_slug": "the-verge" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Judge James Donato orders Google to let rival app stores be downloaded from Google Play, and to give them access to Play's catalog of apps, for three years from November 2024.", "card_text": "A judge orders Google to carry rival stores inside its own", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "CNBC (7 October 2024)", "link": "https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/07/google-ordered-to-open-android-app-store-in-epic-games-case.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Judge Gonzalez Rogers finds that Apple deliberately disobeyed her 2021 order. Apple had allowed links but charged a commission on the sales they led to and showed users warning screens. She bars any commission on those sales and refers the matter for possible criminal contempt.", "card_text": "Apple is found in contempt and barred from taking any cut of outside sales", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "mobilegamer.biz, Neil Long (1 May 2025)", "link": "https://mobilegamer.biz/epic-claims-victory-as-us-court-nukes-apples-control-over-app-store-payments/", "source_slug": "mobilegamer-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Commission fines Apple for breaking the Digital Markets Act's rule that developers must be free to steer users to offers outside the App Store.", "card_text": "The European Commission fines Apple 500 million euros", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "mobilegamer.biz, Vikki Blake (9 September 2026)", "link": "https://mobilegamer.biz/apples-new-eu-app-store-terms-still-breach-the-dma-says-european-developer-coalition/", "source_slug": "mobilegamer-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Japan's Mobile Software Competition Act takes full effect on 18 December. The day before, Apple announces rival stores, outside payment and links out for Japan, with a new set of commissions.", "card_text": "Japan's app store law takes effect, and Apple opens up there", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Apple Newsroom (17 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/12/apple-announces-changes-to-ios-in-japan/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Google announces a fee of 20% on sales from new installs and 10% on subscriptions, plus 5% if the developer uses Google's payment system, and a program for registering rival stores. It starts in Europe, the UK and the US by the end of June and reaches the rest of the world by September 2027.", "card_text": "Google sets new fees worldwide and says its fight with Epic is over", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Android Developers Blog, Sameer Samat (4 March 2026)", "link": "https://android-developers.googleblog.com/2026/03/a-new-era-for-choice-and-openness.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "An appeals court had upheld the contempt finding in December 2025 but said Apple may charge a limited fee on outside sales, and sent the question of how much back to the trial judge. On 30 June 2026 the Supreme Court agrees to hear Apple's challenge to the contempt finding itself.", "card_text": "The Supreme Court agrees to hear Apple's appeal", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "IPWatchdog, Rose Esfandiari (30 June 2026)", "link": "https://ipwatchdog.com/2026/06/30/high-court-grants-cert-in-apples-challenge-to-ninth-circuit-contempt-ruling-in-app-store-dispute/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Aptoide becomes the first outside store that US users can install from Google Play, with access to 1.9 million apps and 295,000 games from Google's catalog. It is the only one. Neither Epic nor Microsoft has joined.", "card_text": "The first rival store appears inside Google Play", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Ars Technica, Ryan Whitwam (10 August 2026)", "link": "https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2026/08/third-party-app-stores-are-rolling-out-in-google-play-but-theres-only-one-right-now/", "source_slug": "ars-technica" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Judge Donato tells Google that the warnings and extra steps it puts in front of users installing a rival store are not acceptable, and orders them removed within a week. Six days later Google shows a new version and asks for about ten more days.", "card_text": "A judge gives Google a week to make rival stores easier to install", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "The Verge, Sean Hollister (13 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.theverge.com/policy/979852/that-is-not-acceptable-judge-orders-google-to-make-rival-app-store-installs-easier", "source_slug": "the-verge" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Apple announced on 18 August 2026 that it would replace its European fees with a single schedule, and the schedule took effect on 1 October 2026: 26% on sales through its own payment system, 20% through another payment system, 15% on sales made through a link out, and 5% on sales in apps distributed outside the App Store. Its charge of half a euro per install ended with it.", "card_text": "Apple's one set of terms for Europe takes effect", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Apple Newsroom (18 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/08/apple-announces-changes-for-apps-in-the-european-union/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Competition Appeal Tribunal approves a settlement of £260 million between Google and UK app developers over Google Play commissions, on a collective claim brought by Professor Barry Rodger. £160 million goes to eligible developers and £100 million to litigation funding, insurance and legal costs. Google makes no admission of liability or wrongdoing. Liz Coll's separate consumer claim reached trial at the same tribunal on 6 October 2026.", "card_text": "A UK tribunal approves Google's settlement with app developers", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PocketGamer.biz, Isa Muhammad (16 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/google-approves-260m-settlement-with-uk-app-developers/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Neil Long of mobilegamer.biz works out that Google's new terms cut what most developers pay by about five percentage points. He argues the complexity is deliberate: the harder the new options are to use, the fewer developers will bother.", "card_text": "Six years of lawsuits, a 5% cut", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "mobilegamer.biz, Neil Long (9 March 2026)", "link": "https://mobilegamer.biz/epic-and-googles-new-play-store-deal-is-not-the-decisive-victory-they-claim-it-is/", "source_slug": "mobilegamer-biz" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Steve Allison, who runs the Epic Games Store, says about 80% of people who start installing it give up at the warning screens the platforms show. With a different fee schedule in every market, he says, most developers are waiting to see what happens.", "card_text": "Warning screens turn away most people who try a rival store", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "mobilegamer.biz, interview with Steve Allison (16 March 2026)", "link": "https://mobilegamer.biz/epic-is-having-a-tougher-time-than-expected-breaking-apple-and-googles-store-duopoly/", "source_slug": "mobilegamer-biz" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "John Gruber reads Apple's new European terms as 'a near-total victory for Apple'. The one real concession he finds is the cut on sales through Apple's own payment system, from 30% to 26%.", "card_text": "In Europe, Apple gave up very little", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Daring Fireball, John Gruber (20 August 2026)", "link": "https://daringfireball.net/2026/08/apple_eu_business_terms_conceding_little", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "From September 2026 Google requires Android developers to verify their identity with Google, whichever store distributes their apps. F-Droid, a long-running independent Android store, argues in an open letter that this leaves every rival store permanently at a disadvantage, because its developers still have to register with Google.", "card_text": "The gate may be moving from the store to the developer", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "F-Droid, open letter (24 February 2026)", "link": "https://f-droid.org/2026/02/24/open-letter-opposing-developer-verification.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The best-placed challenger is well short of its own target. Epic's mobile store has close to 30 million installs, against a goal of 100 million by the end of 2024.", "card_text": "Players have not moved to rival stores", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "mobilegamer.biz, interview with Steve Allison (16 March 2026)", "link": "https://mobilegamer.biz/epic-is-having-a-tougher-time-than-expected-breaking-apple-and-googles-store-duopoly/", "source_slug": "mobilegamer-biz" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "South Korea legislated first, in 2021. Apple and Google complied by charging up to 26% on outside payments. The regulator proposed fines of up to 47.5 billion won for Google and 20.5 billion won for Apple in October 2023, and nearly three years later had again delayed imposing them.", "card_text": "A law on the books is not a rule enforced", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "The Korea Herald, Jie Ye-eun (13 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10840244", "source_slug": "korea-herald" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Eighteen organizations, including the European Games Developer Federation, told the European Commission in September 2026 that Apple's new terms still break the law's rule on steering users to outside offers. The Commission had already said it welcomes the terms and will monitor how Apple applies them. The letter has no legal force.", "card_text": "Developers and the regulator disagree about whether Apple now complies", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "mobilegamer.biz, Vikki Blake (9 September 2026)", "link": "https://mobilegamer.biz/apples-new-eu-app-store-terms-still-breach-the-dma-says-european-developer-coalition/", "source_slug": "mobilegamer-biz" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Apple's European terms took effect on 1 October 2026. The European Commission has not said whether it will close the non-compliance case it opened in 2025, and eighteen organizations told it on 8 September 2026 that the new terms still breach the law. No date has been published for a decision.", "card_text": "Whether the Commission closes its Apple case", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Apple Newsroom (18 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/08/apple-announces-changes-for-apps-in-the-european-union/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Competition Appeal Tribunal began full hearings on 6 October 2026 in Liz Coll's claim for about 20 million UK consumers who spent on the Play Store between 2015 and July 2026, worth more than £1 billion. Google is contesting it and says it charges some of the lowest fees in the market. The tribunal has published no date for judgment.", "card_text": "The Google Play consumer trial reaches judgment", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "mobilegamer.biz, relaying Reuters (8 October 2026)", "link": "https://mobilegamer.biz/google-defends-play-store-commissions-in-1bn-uk-class-action/", "source_slug": "mobilegamer-biz" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Early 2027, when the Supreme Court could hear Apple's appeal. Epic's brief is due on 13 November 2026. A win for Apple could cancel the order that stops it charging for outside sales in the US. Separately, the trial judge has still to rule on the fee of up to 15% that Apple has asked for.", "card_text": "The Supreme Court hears Apple", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "9to5Mac, Marcus Mendes (14 September 2026)", "link": "https://9to5mac.com/2026/09/14/apple-files-supreme-court-brief-challenging-contempt-ruling-in-epic-case/", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "streaming-fragmentation-and-the-multi-homed-creator", "name": "Streamers are spreading across several platforms", "stage": "Dominant", "category": "Platform & distribution", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "makes-room", "horizon_line": "Discovery follows creators, wherever they are.", "markets": [ "BR", "Global", "KR" ], "what_it_is": "Twitch is still the biggest platform for gaming streams, but across all live streaming YouTube Live and TikTok are now larger, and Twitch has lost ground each year. Streamers who broadcast on several platforms at once still spend most of their hours on Twitch. The money is moving too. YouTube gaming creators now earn more per brand deal than Twitch streamers, so the biggest gaming platform no longer pays best.", "why_it_matters": "Live-streaming viewers used to gather mostly on Twitch. Now they are spread across YouTube, TikTok, newer rivals such as Kick, and local services in countries like South Korea. Any one platform shows only part of the picture, and share charts can mislead.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Multistreaming Audience Split: Twitch, YouTube & Kick in H1 2026", "link": "https://streamscharts.com/news/multistreaming-audience-split-twitch-youtube-kick-h1-2026", "type": "Data", "format": "" }, { "source": "SOOP Korea and Chzzk: One Year After Twitch's Shutdown", "link": "https://streamhatchet.com/blog/the-state-of-korean-live-streaming/", "type": "Data", "format": "" }, { "source": "YouTube gaming creators \"command 23% higher deal rates than Twitch\"", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/youtube-gaming-creators-command-23-higher-deal-rates-than-twitch/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Oct 2026", "where_to_follow": "Stream Hatchet quarterly and annual reports, Streams Charts, Netinfluencer, Bloomberg's creator-economy coverage", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "Hours watched by platform, millions, by year", "series_note": "Twitch still leads the three platforms shown, but its hours fall each year while YouTube Gaming and Kick grow. The chart excludes TikTok, which Stream Hatchet began counting in 2026 and which is now larger than all three combined.", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "claims": [ { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Hours watched on Twitch in 2023, from the 2024 yearly report's year-on-year table. Korean-language channels alone lost over a billion hours between 2023 and 2024 after Twitch left the country.", "card_text": "21,700", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Stream Hatchet, 2024 yearly live streaming trends report (free, behind a registration form)", "link": "https://hatchet.gg/reports/2024-yearly-report-in-live-streaming-trends/", "source_slug": "stream-hatchet", "series": "Twitch" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Hours watched on Twitch in 2024, 61.1% of the market Stream Hatchet counts, down 3%.", "card_text": "21,100", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Stream Hatchet, 2024 yearly live streaming trends report (free, behind a registration form)", "link": "https://hatchet.gg/reports/2024-yearly-report-in-live-streaming-trends/", "source_slug": "stream-hatchet", "series": "Twitch" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Hours watched on Twitch in 2025, 52.8% of the market, down 8.9% and 8.3 share points, with the fourth quarter's 4.4 billion the lowest since the start of 2020.", "card_text": "19,200", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Stream Hatchet, 2025 yearly live streaming trends report (free, behind a registration form)", "link": "https://hatchet.gg/reports/2025-yearly-report-in-live-streaming-trends/", "source_slug": "stream-hatchet", "series": "Twitch" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Hours watched on YouTube Gaming in 2023, from the 2024 report's year-on-year table.", "card_text": "4,800", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Stream Hatchet, 2024 yearly live streaming trends report (free, behind a registration form)", "link": "https://hatchet.gg/reports/2024-yearly-report-in-live-streaming-trends/", "source_slug": "stream-hatchet", "series": "YouTube Gaming" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Hours watched on YouTube Gaming in 2024, up 66%, 22.9% of the market.", "card_text": "7,900", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Stream Hatchet, 2024 yearly live streaming trends report (free, behind a registration form)", "link": "https://hatchet.gg/reports/2024-yearly-report-in-live-streaming-trends/", "source_slug": "stream-hatchet", "series": "YouTube Gaming" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Hours watched on YouTube Gaming in 2025, its highest year, up 12% to 24.3% of the market.", "card_text": "8,800", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Stream Hatchet, 2025 yearly live streaming trends report (free, behind a registration form)", "link": "https://hatchet.gg/reports/2025-yearly-report-in-live-streaming-trends/", "source_slug": "stream-hatchet", "series": "YouTube Gaming" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Hours watched on Kick in 2023, its first year, from the 2024 report's year-on-year table.", "card_text": "725", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Stream Hatchet, 2024 yearly live streaming trends report (free, behind a registration form)", "link": "https://hatchet.gg/reports/2024-yearly-report-in-live-streaming-trends/", "source_slug": "stream-hatchet", "series": "Kick" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Hours watched on Kick in 2024, up 169%, 5.7% of the market.", "card_text": "2,000", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Stream Hatchet, 2024 yearly live streaming trends report (free, behind a registration form)", "link": "https://hatchet.gg/reports/2024-yearly-report-in-live-streaming-trends/", "source_slug": "stream-hatchet", "series": "Kick" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Hours watched on Kick in 2025, up 131% to 12.4% of the market, passing a billion hours in a quarter for the first time in the third quarter.", "card_text": "4,500", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Stream Hatchet, 2025 yearly live streaming trends report (free, behind a registration form)", "link": "https://hatchet.gg/reports/2025-yearly-report-in-live-streaming-trends/", "source_slug": "stream-hatchet", "series": "Kick" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Twitch hits its peak, with 24.3 billion hours watched, up from 11 billion in 2019.", "card_text": "Twitch hits its peak", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "TwitchTracker, statistics", "link": "https://twitchtracker.com/statistics", "source_slug": "twitchtracker" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Twitch shuts down in South Korea in February, two months after announcing it. Chzzk, a new service from Korean tech company Naver, draws 43 million hours in its first full month and 100 million by December. SOOP, Korea's longtime local platform, ends the year above its 2023 total.", "card_text": "Twitch leaves Korea, and Chzzk fills the gap", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Stream Hatchet, The state of Korean live streaming (6 March 2025)", "link": "https://hatchet.gg/blog/the-state-of-korean-live-streaming/", "source_slug": "stream-hatchet" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Counting TikTok Live for the first time, live streaming reaches 29.7 billion hours in the first quarter. TikTok takes about 27%, passing Twitch (16.3%) for second place behind YouTube Live.", "card_text": "TikTok passes Twitch", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Streams Charts, Q1 2025 global livestreaming landscape (29 April 2025)", "link": "https://streamscharts.com/news/q1-2025-global-livestreaming", "source_slug": "streams-charts" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Stream Hatchet, which does not count TikTok, puts 2025 at 36.4 billion hours, the most since 2021. YouTube Gaming has its best year for live viewing at 8.8 billion hours, and Kick grows 131% to 4.5 billion. Twitch stays the biggest platform but falls four quarters in a row.", "card_text": "The best year since 2021, without Twitch", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Stream Hatchet, 2025 yearly live streaming trends report", "link": "https://hatchet.gg/reports/2025-yearly-report-in-live-streaming-trends/", "source_slug": "stream-hatchet" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Live streaming passes 30 billion hours in the fourth quarter, and TikTok passes 10 billion in a quarter for the first time. Twitch falls for the fourth straight quarter, and Kick drops from the previous quarter for the first time since launch.", "card_text": "A 30 billion hour quarter, and Kick's first dip", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Streams Charts, Q4 2025 global livestreaming landscape (26 January 2026)", "link": "https://streamscharts.com/news/q4-2025-global-livestreaming-landscape", "source_slug": "streams-charts" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "In Streams Charts' ranking of Brazilian streamers by hours watched in 2025, five of the top ten stream on Twitch, YouTube and Kick, among them Gaules, second with 95,540,925 hours, and Baiano, fourth with 57,655,702. Streams Charts, which sells cross-platform streaming analytics, says combining platforms is what puts such streamers in the ranking, and that a platform-by-platform breakdown 'would paint a very different picture.' In Brazil, it writes, 'multistreaming is not a bonus tactic; it is a core competitive advantage.'", "card_text": "Brazil's top streamers use three platforms at once", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Streams Charts, top Brazilian streamers of 2025 (18 December 2025)", "link": "https://streamscharts.com/news/top-brazilian-streamers-2025", "source_slug": "streams-charts" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Streams Charts' full-year 2025 numbers: Twitch's viewing falls about 10%, to just over 15% of all hours watched. YouTube Live has over 47%, TikTok close to 30%, and Kick just over 4% after growing 125%. Chzzk grows 41%, passing a billion hours for the year.", "card_text": "Twitch at 15% of a market that includes TikTok", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Streams Charts, livestreaming platforms dynamics 2025 (2 February 2026)", "link": "https://streamscharts.com/news/livestreaming-platforms-dynamics-2025-youtube-live-strengthens-positions-twitch-viewership-down-10", "source_slug": "streams-charts" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "In the first half of 2026, the average streamer who broadcasts on several platforms spends 56.18% of their hours on Twitch, 23.59% on YouTube, and 19.52% on Kick.", "card_text": "Multistreamers split their hours three ways", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Streams Charts, multistreaming audience split, H1 2026 (7 August 2026)", "link": "https://streamscharts.com/news/multistreaming-audience-split-twitch-youtube-kick-h1-2026", "source_slug": "streams-charts" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Collabstr's brand-deal data, reported by PocketGamer.biz: YouTube gaming creators averaged $203.35 per deal, 23% more than Twitch streamers' $165.70.", "card_text": "YouTube creators earn more per deal", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PocketGamer.biz, on Collabstr's data (8 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/youtube-gaming-creators-command-23-higher-deal-rates-than-twitch/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Stream Hatchet starts counting TikTok Live in the second quarter of 2026, and it is bigger than every other platform combined, at 8.9 billion hours and 50.9% of the market. The other platforms fall 6% from a year earlier to 8.6 billion hours: Twitch 4.5 billion (down 8%), YouTube Gaming 1.8 billion (down 19%), and Kick 1.3 billion (up 37%).", "card_text": "TikTok Live outweighs every other platform combined", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Stream Hatchet, Q2 2026 live streaming trends report (free, behind a registration form)", "link": "https://hatchet.gg/reports/", "source_slug": "stream-hatchet" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Viewing hours and earnings rank the platforms differently. In a second cut of the same Collabstr data, comparing what creators asked for with what they kept after fees, Twitch creators asked for $398 on average but kept $127, just 32%. YouTube creators asked for $311 and kept $255, or 82%. The per-deal averages in the timeline are what was actually paid, and these are the asking prices behind them.", "card_text": "The biggest gaming platform is not the best-paying", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PocketGamer.biz, on Collabstr's data (8 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/youtube-gaming-creators-command-23-higher-deal-rates-than-twitch/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Streaming on several platforms is now the norm. The average multi-platform streamer spends 56% of their hours on Twitch, 24% on YouTube, and 20% on Kick. Streams Charts says each platform plays a different role for the same creator.", "card_text": "One channel, three platforms", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Streams Charts, multistreaming audience split, H1 2026 (7 August 2026)", "link": "https://streamscharts.com/news/multistreaming-audience-split-twitch-youtube-kick-h1-2026", "source_slug": "streams-charts" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "When a platform leaves a country, the market there can rebuild within a year. After Twitch left South Korea, Chzzk went from launch to 100 million monthly hours by December 2024. Krafton, the Korean publisher behind PUBG, got 57% of the viewing of its games in the second half of the year from YouTube Gaming.", "card_text": "A market can remake itself in a year", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Stream Hatchet, The state of Korean live streaming (6 March 2025)", "link": "https://hatchet.gg/blog/the-state-of-korean-live-streaming/", "source_slug": "stream-hatchet" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Kick lets creators keep 95% of their subscription earnings. Its co-founder Bijan Tehrani says he and Ed Craven have personally invested nearly $1 billion in the platform since it began, and Streams Charts, reporting that Kick reached 100 million users, calls it Stake-backed. The article gives no figure for Kick's profits.", "card_text": "Kick pays streamers the most, with its founders' money behind it", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Streams Charts, Ravi Iyer (13 April 2026)", "link": "https://streamscharts.com/news/kick-reaches-100-million-users", "source_slug": "streams-charts" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Twitch is still where gaming streams live. Gaming made up 76% of Twitch viewing in the fourth quarter of 2025, and Twitch stayed above 4 billion hours a quarter. On TikTok and YouTube, gaming was under 15% of watch time.", "card_text": "Twitch still leads in gaming", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Streams Charts, Q4 2025 global livestreaming landscape (26 January 2026)", "link": "https://streamscharts.com/news/q4-2025-global-livestreaming-landscape", "source_slug": "streams-charts" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Stream Hatchet does not count TikTok, and by its numbers Twitch was still the biggest platform in 2025, even after four quarters of decline. Include TikTok, as Streams Charts does, and Twitch drops to about 15%. Both describe the same year.", "card_text": "Twitch's share depends on who is counted", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Stream Hatchet, 2025 yearly live streaming trends report", "link": "https://hatchet.gg/reports/2025-yearly-report-in-live-streaming-trends/", "source_slug": "stream-hatchet" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Kick, the fastest-growing challenger, was still up 37% on a year earlier in the second quarter of 2026 by Stream Hatchet's count, against 131% for all of 2025. Streams Charts recorded its first drop from one quarter to the next in the fourth quarter of 2025. A slowdown from a very fast pace, not a stop.", "card_text": "Kick's growth has slowed, not stopped", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Stream Hatchet, Q2 2026 live streaming trends report (free, behind a registration form), with the fourth-quarter drop from Streams Charts", "link": "https://hatchet.gg/reports/", "source_slug": "stream-hatchet" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Early 2027, when Stream Hatchet usually publishes its yearly report. It counted 19.2 billion hours on Twitch in 2025. A 2026 total under 19 billion would extend the decline for another year.", "card_text": "Whether Twitch falls below 19 billion", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Stream Hatchet, 2025 yearly live streaming trends report", "link": "https://hatchet.gg/reports/2025-yearly-report-in-live-streaming-trends/", "source_slug": "stream-hatchet" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Streams Charts' next quarterly reports. Kick fell from one quarter to the next for the first time at the end of 2025, and its monthly figures have since turned back up: Streams Charts put September 2026 above 700 million hours watched and 1.09 million average viewers, a record and 21% above its previous mark. The quarterly reports will show whether a record month makes a record quarter.", "card_text": "Whether Kick's first dip was a ceiling", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Streams Charts, Q4 2025 global livestreaming landscape (26 January 2026)", "link": "https://streamscharts.com/news/q4-2025-global-livestreaming-landscape", "source_slug": "streams-charts" } ] }, { "slug": "handheld-pc-resurgence", "name": "Handheld gaming PCs are losing momentum", "stage": "Receding", "category": "Platform & distribution", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "stalled-bets", "horizon_line": "A real form factor that plateaued. SteamOS may still carry the idea forward.", "markets": [ "Global", "US" ], "what_it_is": "IDC's estimates, published by The Verge, have shipments peaking at 2.9 million in 2023 and falling by nearly half in 2024. A second firm, Omdia, counts differently and forecast growth for 2025. Nobody has published a figure since. In 2026 a memory chip shortage pushed the Steam Deck's price up by as much as $300 and left it out of stock for months. The firmer change is in software: Valve now lets other makers ship SteamOS, and Lenovo was the first to do so. Linux touched 5% of Steam users in March 2026 and was back under 4% by August, and most of those users are on desktop PCs.", "why_it_matters": "The Steam Deck showed in 2022 that PC games could run on a handheld the size of a Nintendo Switch, and Asus, Lenovo and others followed. Shipments peaked in 2023 and fell by nearly half in 2024, and nobody has published a count since.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Asus ROG Xbox Ally sales stall with Steam Deck still the preferred handheld gaming PC", "link": "https://www.notebookcheck.net/Asus-ROG-Xbox-Ally-sales-stall-with-Steam-Deck-still-the-preferred-handheld-gaming-PC.1230155.0.html", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "SteamOS expands beyond Steam Deck", "link": "https://store.steampowered.com/news/app/593110/view/529834914570306831", "type": "Primary", "format": "" }, { "source": "PC Gaming Handhelds just keep getting better", "link": "https://www.tiktok.com/@gg.sheed/video/7675986246526700814", "type": "Community", "format": "video" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "Omdia games research, The Verge hardware desk, Circana (Piscatella), Valve Steam Hardware Survey", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "Handheld gaming PCs shipped worldwide, millions, IDC estimates, by year", "series_note": "Shipments peaked in 2023 at 2.9 million and fell by nearly half in 2024. IDC's forecast for 2025 was under 2 million, still short of the peak.", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ { "text": "IDC's estimates, published by The Verge", "href": "https://www.theverge.com/pc-gaming/618709/steam-deck-3-year-anniversary-handheld-gaming-shipments-idc" }, ", have shipments peaking at 2.9 million in 2023 and falling by nearly half in 2024. A second firm, Omdia, counts differently and forecast growth for 2025. Nobody has published a figure since. In 2026 a memory chip shortage pushed the Steam Deck's price up by as much as $300 and left it out of stock for months. The firmer change is in software: Valve now lets other makers ship SteamOS, and Lenovo was the first to do so. Linux touched 5% of Steam users in March 2026 and was back under 4% by August, and most of those users are on desktop PCs." ], "series_format": "{n} million", "claims": [ { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Handheld gaming PCs shipped worldwide in 2022, on IDC's estimate of 1,620,000. Every one was a Steam Deck, which went on sale that February.", "card_text": "1.6", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "The Verge, on IDC", "link": "https://www.theverge.com/pc-gaming/618709/steam-deck-3-year-anniversary-handheld-gaming-shipments-idc", "source_slug": "the-verge" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Handheld gaming PCs shipped worldwide in 2023, on IDC's estimate of 2,867,000: the Steam Deck plus new rivals from Asus and Lenovo.", "card_text": "2.9", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "The Verge, on IDC", "link": "https://www.theverge.com/pc-gaming/618709/steam-deck-3-year-anniversary-handheld-gaming-shipments-idc", "source_slug": "the-verge" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Handheld gaming PCs shipped worldwide in 2024, on IDC's estimate of 1,485,000. The Steam Deck was 48% of them.", "card_text": "1.5", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "The Verge, on IDC", "link": "https://www.theverge.com/pc-gaming/618709/steam-deck-3-year-anniversary-handheld-gaming-shipments-idc", "source_slug": "the-verge" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "IDC's forecast for 2025 of 1,926,000, made in February 2025, before the Xbox-branded handheld was announced. It is not a count. Neither IDC nor anyone else has published an actual figure for 2025 or 2026.", "card_text": "1.9", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "The Verge, on IDC", "link": "https://www.theverge.com/pc-gaming/618709/steam-deck-3-year-anniversary-handheld-gaming-shipments-idc", "source_slug": "the-verge", "partial": true }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Valve's Steam Deck, a handheld computer shaped like a games console that plays PC games, goes on sale in February 2022. IDC estimates 1.62 million handheld gaming PCs shipped that year, all of them Steam Decks.", "card_text": "The Steam Deck creates the category", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "The Verge, Sean Hollister, on IDC (25 February 2025)", "link": "https://www.theverge.com/pc-gaming/618709/steam-deck-3-year-anniversary-handheld-gaming-shipments-idc", "source_slug": "the-verge" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Asus's ROG Ally and Lenovo's Legion Go join the Steam Deck. IDC estimates 2,867,000 handheld gaming PCs shipped in 2023, with the Steam Deck upwards of half. It is still the highest year on record.", "card_text": "Rivals arrive and shipments reach 2.9 million", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "The Verge, Sean Hollister, on IDC (25 February 2025)", "link": "https://www.theverge.com/pc-gaming/618709/steam-deck-3-year-anniversary-handheld-gaming-shipments-idc", "source_slug": "the-verge" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "IDC's estimate for 2024 is 1,485,000, with the Steam Deck at 48%. Over three years just under 6 million have shipped in total. 'It's small and it's not really growing,' The Verge concludes.", "card_text": "Shipments fall by nearly half", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "The Verge, Sean Hollister, on IDC (25 February 2025)", "link": "https://www.theverge.com/pc-gaming/618709/steam-deck-3-year-anniversary-handheld-gaming-shipments-idc", "source_slug": "the-verge" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Valve announces that SteamOS, the system that runs the Steam Deck, will come on other companies' hardware. Lenovo's Legion Go S is the first handheld licensed to use it.", "card_text": "Valve opens its operating system to other makers' handhelds", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Valve, Steam News (7 January 2025)", "link": "https://store.steampowered.com/news/app/593110/view/529834914570306831", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A second research firm, Omdia, forecasts 2.3 million handheld gaming PCs sold in 2025, up from 1.7 million in 2024, and 4.7 million a year by 2029. It counts sales rather than shipments and a wider list of devices, so its figures do not match IDC's.", "card_text": "Omdia forecasts 2.3 million for the year, up 32%", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Omdia, press release (18 August 2025)", "link": "https://www.silicon.co.uk/press-release/2-3-million-pc-gaming-handhelds-will-be-sold-in-2025-according-to-omdia", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The ROG Xbox Ally and Ally X, built by Asus and sold under Microsoft's Xbox brand, go on sale on 16 October 2025.", "card_text": "An Xbox-branded handheld goes on sale in 45 countries", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Xbox Wire, Roanne Sones (16 October 2025)", "link": "https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2025/10/16/rog-xbox-ally-handheld-out-now-launch/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Steam Deck goes out of stock in the US and then most other regions. Valve's store blames shortages of memory and storage chips.", "card_text": "The Steam Deck sells out as memory chips run short", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Mashable, Chance Townsend (17 February 2026)", "link": "https://mashable.com/article/valve-steam-deck-latest-casualty-of-global-memory-shortage", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Mat Piscatella of Circana says the ROG Xbox Ally had a nice first month in the US, has since fallen sharply, and has not dented the Steam Deck. None of the companies publishes sales figures.", "card_text": "Circana's analyst says sales of the Xbox handheld fell away after a month", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Notebookcheck, Adam Corsetti (19 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.notebookcheck.net/Asus-ROG-Xbox-Ally-sales-stall-with-Steam-Deck-still-the-preferred-handheld-gaming-PC.1230155.0.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Valve's monthly survey of Steam users for March 2026 finds 5.33% running Linux, the family of systems that includes SteamOS. About a quarter of them are on SteamOS itself. The share had passed 3% only the previous October. The survey swings from month to month with the mix of languages among the people answering.", "card_text": "Linux passes 5% of Steam users, for one month", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamingOnLinux (2 April 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamingonlinux.com/2026/04/linux-smashes-past-5-percent-on-the-steam-survey-for-the-first-time/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The August 2026 survey has Linux at 3.90% of Steam users. SteamOS is 21.07% of those, behind a spread of desktop Linux systems, so most of the people counted are on desktop PCs, not handhelds.", "card_text": "By August the Linux share is back under 4%", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamingOnLinux (2 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamingonlinux.com/2026/09/steam-linux-user-share-dips-below-4-percent-for-august-2026/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Steam Deck returns to Valve's US store at $789 and $949, up from $549 and $649, and sells out again. The Xbox Ally X and Legion Go 2 are selling above their list prices.", "card_text": "The Steam Deck comes back $240 to $300 pricier", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PCGamesN, Edward Chester (28 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.pcgamesn.com/steam-deck/prices-increase-may-2026", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Nintendo's Switch 2, the handheld most people buy, reaches 23.68 million units by 30 June 2026, about thirteen months after launch. Handheld gaming PCs shipped just under 6 million in their first three years.", "card_text": "Nintendo reports 23.68 million Switch 2 consoles sold in about a year", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Nintendo, Dedicated Video Game Sales Units", "link": "https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html", "source_slug": "nintendo-ir" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Sean Hollister of The Verge argues that with as few as 2 million Windows handhelds shipped in two years, it is no surprise that AMD and Intel are not spending heavily on chips made for them. Without better chips the devices improve slowly.", "card_text": "Too few are sold for chip makers to design parts for them", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "The Verge, Sean Hollister, on IDC (25 February 2025)", "link": "https://www.theverge.com/pc-gaming/618709/steam-deck-3-year-anniversary-handheld-gaming-shipments-idc", "source_slug": "the-verge" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Frank Azor is AMD's gaming marketing chief, and AMD makes the chips inside the Steam Deck, the ROG Ally and the Legion Go S, so he has a stake in the category. He puts the same numbers differently. 'We went from nothing, zero, to incremental category creation in the millions,' he tells The Verge.", "card_text": "A category made from nothing", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "The Verge, Sean Hollister, on IDC (25 February 2025)", "link": "https://www.theverge.com/pc-gaming/618709/steam-deck-3-year-anniversary-handheld-gaming-shipments-idc", "source_slug": "the-verge" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "James McWhirter of Omdia says Windows 11 is poorly suited to handheld play. He sees a reworked Windows and the Xbox name as the way to reach buyers beyond enthusiasts, which is why Valve offering its own system to other makers matters.", "card_text": "Windows is what holds the rivals back", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Omdia, press release (18 August 2025)", "link": "https://www.silicon.co.uk/press-release/2-3-million-pc-gaming-handhelds-will-be-sold-in-2025-according-to-omdia", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Edward Chester of PCGamesN points out that after its price rise the Steam Deck costs more than several more powerful rivals. Its low price had been the main reason to buy one.", "card_text": "The memory shortage has wiped out the price advantage", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PCGamesN, Edward Chester (28 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.pcgamesn.com/steam-deck/prices-increase-may-2026", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Omdia's published figures only go up: 1.7 million in 2024, 2.3 million forecast for 2025, 4.7 million a year by 2029. It has never published a figure for 2023 on the same basis, so a reader of Omdia alone would not know the category had shrunk. The two firms count different things, shipments against sales, and different lists of devices.", "card_text": "Another research firm sees steady growth", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Omdia, press release (18 August 2025)", "link": "https://www.silicon.co.uk/press-release/2-3-million-pc-gaming-handhelds-will-be-sold-in-2025-according-to-omdia", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The Verge notes that IDC's figures do not include handhelds from Chinese makers such as GPD, Ayaneo and OneXPlayer. They are also estimates of what makers shipped to shops, built from supply-chain data, not counts of what people bought.", "card_text": "IDC's count leaves devices out", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "The Verge, Sean Hollister, on IDC (25 February 2025)", "link": "https://www.theverge.com/pc-gaming/618709/steam-deck-3-year-anniversary-handheld-gaming-shipments-idc", "source_slug": "the-verge" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The last actual figure in public is for 2024. Valve, Asus, Lenovo and Microsoft publish no unit sales. What is known about 2026 is indirect: stock-outs, price rises and one analyst's remarks on a podcast. Notebookcheck, reporting those remarks, notes that the companies have not made recent sales data public.", "card_text": "Nobody has published a figure since 2024", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Notebookcheck, Adam Corsetti (19 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.notebookcheck.net/Asus-ROG-Xbox-Ally-sales-stall-with-Steam-Deck-still-the-preferred-handheld-gaming-PC.1230155.0.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Early 2027, if IDC or Omdia repeat the timing of their earlier releases. IDC forecast 1,926,000 for 2025 and Omdia 2.3 million. The actual figures will show which was closer, and what the memory shortage did to 2026.", "card_text": "The first actual figures for 2025 and 2026", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "The Verge, Sean Hollister, on IDC (25 February 2025)", "link": "https://www.theverge.com/pc-gaming/618709/steam-deck-3-year-anniversary-handheld-gaming-shipments-idc", "source_slug": "the-verge" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "2029, the year by which Omdia forecast 4.7 million handheld gaming PCs would be sold annually. It made the forecast in August 2025, before memory prices jumped.", "card_text": "Omdia's 4.7 million", "year": "2029", "market": "", "source": "Omdia, press release (18 August 2025)", "link": "https://www.silicon.co.uk/press-release/2-3-million-pc-gaming-handhelds-will-be-sold-in-2025-according-to-omdia", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "metaverse-and-blockchain-gaming-hype", "name": "Investors are abandoning blockchain games", "stage": "Receding", "category": "Platform & distribution", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "stalled-bets", "horizon_line": "The transition that never delivered. Worth keeping as a cautionary pattern.", "markets": [ "Global" ], "what_it_is": "DappRadar, the sector's main tracker until it closed in November 2025, counted $7.6 billion invested in blockchain gaming and metaverse projects in 2022, $1.8 billion in 2024 and $293 million in the first nine months of 2025. ChainPlay classed 93% of 3,279 blockchain game projects as dead in November 2024. Meta cut about 1,500 metaverse jobs in January 2026 and is turning Horizon Worlds into a phone app. The clearest exception is Nexon's MapleStory Universe, which reports a working token economy inside an established game.", "why_it_matters": "In 2021 and 2022 blockchain games, where items trade for real money, were sold as the future of games, alongside the metaverse. Most of it failed. Confident coverage from those years is still online. Check the outcome before citing it.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "State of GameFi 2024", "link": "https://chainplay.gg/blog/state-gamefi-2024/", "type": "Research", "format": "" }, { "source": "The Great Reset: Your 2023 Guide to Web3 Games", "link": "https://naavik.co/deep-dives/the-great-reset-2023/", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "NEXPACE posts 30.98 million NXPC in first-half protocol revenue", "link": "https://www.invenglobal.com/articles/25725/nexpace-posts-3098-million-nxpc-in-first-half-protocol-revenue", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Oct 2026", "where_to_follow": "Matthew Ball (who wrote the book and the post-mortems), Naavik, Digiday's Gaming Advertising coverage for brand-metaverse residue", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "Money invested in blockchain gaming and metaverse projects worldwide, $ billions, DappRadar's count", "series_note": "Investment peaked at $7.6 billion in 2022 and fell to $1.8 billion in 2024. DappRadar counted $293 million in the first nine months of 2025.", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "series_format": "${n} billion", "claims": [ { "section": "Definition", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "'Play-to-earn' was the idea that in-game items could be crypto tokens, so playing a game could actually earn you money. 'The metaverse' was the idea of one big shared online world you could carry yourself across different games. Both were as much pitches to investors as they were real products.", "card_text": "What was play-to-earn?", "year": "", "market": "", "source": "", "link": "", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Money invested in blockchain gaming and metaverse projects in 2020, as DappRadar's report on 2022 counts it. The count covers infrastructure, guilds and investment funds as well as the games themselves.", "card_text": "0.191", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "DappRadar's yearly games reports", "link": "https://dappradar.com/blog/dappradar-x-bga-games-report-2022-overview", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Money invested in blockchain gaming and metaverse projects in 2021, from the same report.", "card_text": "3.7", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "DappRadar's yearly games reports", "link": "https://dappradar.com/blog/dappradar-x-bga-games-report-2022-overview", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Money invested in blockchain gaming and metaverse projects in 2022, the peak. Infrastructure took 33.5% of it, and games and metaverse worlds themselves 27.3%.", "card_text": "7.6", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "DappRadar's yearly games reports", "link": "https://dappradar.com/blog/dappradar-x-bga-games-report-2022-overview", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Money invested in Web3 gaming and metaverse projects in 2023, across 163 deals, a 62% drop on the year before.", "card_text": "2.9", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "DappRadar's yearly games reports", "link": "https://dappradar.com/blog/dappradar-games-report-2023-overview", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Money invested in blockchain gaming and metaverse projects in 2024, down 38% on 2023. Investment firms took 58% of it.", "card_text": "1.8", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "DappRadar's yearly games reports", "link": "https://dappradar.com/blog/dappradar-games-report-2024-overview", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Money invested in blockchain gaming in the first nine months of 2025, so not a full year. DappRadar counted $129 million of it in the third quarter.", "card_text": "0.293", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "DappRadar's yearly games reports", "link": "https://dappradar.com/blog/state-of-blockchain-gaming-q3-2025", "source_slug": "", "partial": true }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Facebook changes its company name to Meta and says its focus will be to bring the metaverse to life, meaning shared virtual worlds that people visit through headsets.", "card_text": "Facebook renames itself Meta", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "Meta Newsroom (28 October 2021)", "link": "https://about.fb.com/news/2021/10/facebook-company-is-now-meta/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Ubisoft announces Quartz, which sells numbered items for its game Ghost Recon Breakpoint as NFTs, tradable records of ownership kept on a blockchain.", "card_text": "Ubisoft becomes the first big publisher to put NFTs in a game", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "Kotaku, Renata Price (7 December 2021)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/ubisoft-first-major-pub-to-befoul-own-game-with-nfts-1848176813", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Game Developers Conference's yearly survey finds 70% of developers saying their studio has no interest in NFTs or cryptocurrency.", "card_text": "Seven in ten game developers want nothing to do with it", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "TechSpot, Cal Jeffrey, on the GDC survey (20 January 2022)", "link": "https://www.techspot.com/news/93075-game-developers-conference-report-indicates-most-developer-frown.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "DappRadar, the sector's main tracker, counts 7.4 million wallets a day interacting with blockchain games at the end of 2024, up 421% in a year. Investment falls 38% to $1.8 billion. A wallet is an account, not a person, and one player or one automated program can run many.", "card_text": "Activity rises while investment falls", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "GamesBeat, Dean Takahashi, on DappRadar (21 January 2025)", "link": "https://gamesbeat.com/blockchain-gaming-grows-to-7-4m-active-wallets-in-2024-up-421-dappradar/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "ChainPlay, a site that lists blockchain games, checks the 3,279 projects in its database in November 2024 and classes 93% of them as dead. It also finds that 58% of the venture firms that invested in them have lost between 2.5% and 99%.", "card_text": "A count finds 93% of blockchain games dead", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "ChainPlay, State of GameFi 2024 (3 December 2024)", "link": "https://chainplay.gg/blog/state-gamefi-2024/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "DappRadar reports $73 million raised by blockchain games in the second quarter of 2025, down 93% from a year earlier, and more than 300 games shut down.", "card_text": "A quarter in which more than 300 blockchain games close", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "CoinDesk, on DappRadar (11 July 2025)", "link": "https://www.coindesk.com/web3/2025/07/11/web3-gaming-faces-ongoing-turmoil-market-metrics-reveal-persistent-decline", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Square Enix, the Japanese publisher of Final Fantasy, winds up Symbiogenesis, its NFT project, in July 2025.", "card_text": "Square Enix ends its NFT game", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Siliconera, Jenni Lada (21 February 2025)", "link": "https://www.siliconera.com/square-enix-will-end-symbiogenesis-nft-project-shares-final-roadmap/", "source_slug": "siliconera" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "DappRadar announces it is closing, saying the business has become financially unsustainable in the current environment. Most published figures on blockchain games had come from it.", "card_text": "The sector's own scorekeeper shuts down", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "CoinDesk, Margaux Nijkerk (17 November 2025)", "link": "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/11/17/E", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "After laying off roughly 1,500 staff in its Reality Labs division in January, Meta says Horizon Worlds, its virtual world, will become almost exclusively a phone app. TechCrunch puts Reality Labs' losses since 2020 at nearly $80 billion.", "card_text": "Meta takes its metaverse out of virtual reality", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "TechCrunch, Aisha Malik (20 February 2026)", "link": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/20/meta-metaverse-leaves-vr-horizon-worlds-mobile/", "source_slug": "techcrunch" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "NEXPACE, a Nexon subsidiary, reports that MapleStory Universe took in 30.98 million of its NXPC tokens in the first half of 2026, 95% of it from core gameplay, with 855,500 wallets created since launch. The report gives no value in dollars.", "card_text": "One big publisher's token economy is still running", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Inven Global, Doohyun Lee (8 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.invenglobal.com/articles/25725/nexpace-posts-3098-million-nxpc-in-first-half-protocol-revenue", "source_slug": "inven-global" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Investment in crypto shifted toward real-world assets and artificial intelligence, DappRadar reported in April 2025, a trend that continued into the first quarter of that year.", "card_text": "The investors moved on to AI", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "DappRadar, Sara Gherghelas (10 April 2025)", "link": "https://dappradar.com/blog/state-of-blockchain-gaming-in-q1-2025", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "A focus on what players could earn took precedence over fun and sustainability, Naavik and Delphi Digital wrote in January 2023, and it made a bubble that lasted only as long as new players put new money in.", "card_text": "The model was built for earning, and players wanted entertainment", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Naavik, with Delphi Digital (27 January 2023)", "link": "https://naavik.co/deep-dives/the-great-reset-2023/", "source_slug": "naavik" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Players will be skeptical, Naavik and Delphi Digital argued after the crash, so the blockchain games that come next need to be fun first and deliver on their promises.", "card_text": "The next games have to be fun first", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Naavik, with Delphi Digital (27 January 2023)", "link": "https://naavik.co/deep-dives/the-great-reset-2023/", "source_slug": "naavik" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "DappRadar's count takes in infrastructure, guilds and the investment firms that fund the sector as well as the games themselves. In 2024 investment firms took 58% of the total, so most of the money on the chart did not go to studios making games.", "card_text": "DappRadar's totals count more than games", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "DappRadar, Sara Gherghelas (21 January 2025)", "link": "https://dappradar.com/blog/dappradar-games-report-2024-overview", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Nexon's MapleStory Universe is a running economy of tradable tokens inside a well-known game, and two thirds of its wallets have made a transaction on the blockchain. The caveats are that the figures are the company's own and are counted in its own token.", "card_text": "Not every token economy failed", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Inven Global, Doohyun Lee (8 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.invenglobal.com/articles/25725/nexpace-posts-3098-million-nxpc-in-first-half-protocol-revenue", "source_slug": "inven-global" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "ChainPlay counts a project as dead if its token has fallen more than 90% from its peak or it has fewer than 100 daily users. Either is enough, so a game people still play counts as dead once its token has collapsed.", "card_text": "'Dead' can mean a crashed token", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "ChainPlay, State of GameFi 2024 (3 December 2024)", "link": "https://chainplay.gg/blog/state-gamefi-2024/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A new plan from Animoca Brands to relist on a major public exchange, which it says it remains fully committed to, after it suspended its reverse merger with Currenc Group on 22 September 2026.", "card_text": "Whether Animoca Brands finds another way to list", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Animoca Brands (22 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.animocabrands.com/announcement/animoca-brands-and-currenc-group-suspend-merger-discussions", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Early 2027, if Nexon's blockchain arm reports its second half as it did its first. It took 30.98 million of its own tokens in the first half of 2026, about 95% of it from play inside MapleStory Universe, and now burns a fifth of each quarter's revenue.", "card_text": "Whether the one working token economy keeps working", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Inven Global (8 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.invenglobal.com/articles/25725/nexpace-posts-3098-million-nxpc-in-first-half-protocol-revenue", "source_slug": "inven-global" } ] }, { "slug": "multigenerational-play-and-the-household-question", "name": "Older players are a large audience the industry overlooks", "stage": "Perennial", "category": "Culture & audience", "horizon": "perennial", "horizon_group": null, "horizon_line": "The biggest overlooked audience. They still pay full price for single-player games, and most play alone.", "markets": [ "BR", "DE", "Global", "UK", "US" ], "what_it_is": "The ESA's 2026 survey puts the average US player at 37, and finds half of Boomers play weekly, women more than men. The ESA calls that a rise, but it printed the same 37 in 2011, its 29% share of players aged 50 and over is also what it printed in 2011, and its figures jumped in 2024 when it changed how it runs the survey. AARP's research counts 52.4 million American players over 50, most playing alone on a phone and feeling games are not made for them. In Germany the number of players over 60 rose from 6.4 million to 7.7 million in a year, on the trade body's count.", "why_it_matters": "The picture of a gamer as a teenage boy has long been wrong. Players aged 50 and over have been about a quarter of the American audience since 2006. They mostly play alone on a phone, and say games are not made for them.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "2026 Essential Facts About the U.S. Video Game Industry", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/resources/essential-facts-about-the-us-video-game-industry/2026-data/", "type": "Data", "format": "" }, { "source": "The Myth of the Aging Playerbase", "link": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8tdqi-x9OI", "type": "Analysis", "format": "video" }, { "source": "Why older gamers could be the key to saving the games industry", "link": "https://news.northeastern.edu/2026/06/02/old-gamers-video-game-industry/", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "ESA Essential Facts (annual), Circana demographics, VGM/GWI audience panels, Pew Research internet & tech", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "Share of US game players aged 50 or over, by edition of the ESA's yearly survey", "series_note": "Players aged 50 and over have been about a quarter of the American audience since 2006: 25% then, 29% in 2011 and 29% in 2026. They did not arrive recently. The years marked n/a are editions that used other age bands.", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "2024: New survey method", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "The ", { "text": "ESA's 2026 survey", "href": "https://www.theesa.com/two-thirds-of-americans-play-video-games-every-week-according-tonew-report-from-the-entertainment-software-association/" }, " puts the average US player at 37, and finds half of Boomers play weekly, women more than men. The ESA calls that a rise, but it printed the same 37 in 2011, its 29% share of players aged 50 and over is also what it printed in 2011, and its figures jumped in 2024 when it changed how it runs the survey. ", { "text": "AARP's research", "href": "https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/social-leisure/activities-interests/2023-gamers-50-plus/" }, " counts 52.4 million American players over 50, most playing alone on a phone and feeling games are not made for them. In Germany the number of players over 60 rose from 6.4 million to 7.7 million in a year, on the trade body's count." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The share of US game players aged 50 or over, as printed in the ESA's 2004 edition of Essential Facts: 17.0%.", "card_text": "17%", "year": "2004", "market": "", "source": "ESA Essential Facts", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2004-EF-FINAL.pdf", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The share of US game players aged 50 or over, as printed in the ESA's 2005 edition of Essential Facts: 19.0%.", "card_text": "19%", "year": "2005", "market": "", "source": "ESA Essential Facts", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2005-EF-FINAL.pdf", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The share of US game players aged 50 or over, as printed in the ESA's 2006 edition of Essential Facts: 25.0%.", "card_text": "25%", "year": "2006", "market": "", "source": "ESA Essential Facts", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2006-EF-FINAL.pdf", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The share of US game players aged 50 or over, as printed in the ESA's 2007 edition of Essential Facts: 24.2%.", "card_text": "24%", "year": "2007", "market": "", "source": "ESA Essential Facts", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2007-EF-FINAL.pdf", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The share of US game players aged 50 or over, as printed in the ESA's 2008 edition of Essential Facts: 26%.", "card_text": "26%", "year": "2008", "market": "", "source": "ESA Essential Facts", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2008-EF-FINAL.pdf", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The share of US game players aged 50 or over, as printed in the ESA's 2009 edition of Essential Facts: 26%.", "card_text": "26%", "year": "2009", "market": "", "source": "ESA Essential Facts", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2009-EF-FINAL.pdf", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The share of US game players aged 50 or over, as printed in the ESA's 2010 edition of Essential Facts: 26%.", "card_text": "26%", "year": "2010", "market": "", "source": "ESA Essential Facts", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2010-EF-FINAL.pdf", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The share of US game players aged 50 or over, as printed in the ESA's 2011 edition of Essential Facts: 29%. The editions for 2012 to 2014 grouped everyone aged 36 and over together, so those years have no figure.", "card_text": "29%", "year": "2011", "market": "", "source": "ESA Essential Facts", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2011-EF-FINAL.pdf", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The share of US game players aged 50 or over, as printed in the ESA's 2015 edition of Essential Facts: 27%.", "card_text": "27%", "year": "2015", "market": "", "source": "ESA Essential Facts", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2015-EF-FINAL.pdf", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The share of US game players aged 50 or over, as printed in the ESA's 2016 edition of Essential Facts: 26%. The editions for 2017 to 2023 used other age bands, so those years have no figure.", "card_text": "26%", "year": "2016", "market": "", "source": "ESA Essential Facts", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2016-EF-FINAL.pdf", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The share of US game players aged 50 or over, as printed in the ESA's 2024 edition of Essential Facts: 29%. From this edition a different firm runs the survey and children aged 5 to 17 are counted for the first time, so it is not like for like with earlier years.", "card_text": "29%", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "ESA Essential Facts", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Essential-Facts-2024-FINAL.pdf", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The share of US game players aged 50 or over, as printed in the ESA's 2025 edition of Essential Facts: 28%.", "card_text": "28%", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "ESA Essential Facts", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2025-Essential-Facts-Booklet-05-30-25-RGB.pdf", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The share of US game players aged 50 or over, as printed in the ESA's 2026 edition of Essential Facts: 29%.", "card_text": "29%", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "ESA Essential Facts", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/2026-Essential-Facts-Booklet-05-27-26.pdf", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The ESA, the US games industry's trade body, later reports that in 1999 only 9% of American players were aged 50 or older.", "card_text": "One US player in eleven is over 50", "year": "1999", "market": "", "source": "Entertainment Software Association (16 May 2024)", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/video-games-remain-lifelong-source-of-entertainment-for-190-6-million-americans/", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The ESA's yearly survey finds 25% of American players are 50 or older, and puts the average player's age at 33. The over-50 share has stayed between 24% and 29% in every edition that has printed it since.", "card_text": "A quarter of US players are over 50", "year": "2006", "market": "", "source": "ESA Essential Facts 2006", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2006-EF-FINAL.pdf", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The 2011 edition prints an average age of 37 and a 29% share of players over 50. Both are identical to the figures the ESA presented in 2026 as a rise.", "card_text": "The ESA puts the average player at 37, the same as in 2026", "year": "2011", "market": "", "source": "ESA Essential Facts 2011", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2011-EF-FINAL.pdf", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Pew Research Center finds that 49% of US adults ever play video games, men and women almost equally. Only 10% describe themselves as gamers.", "card_text": "Half of American adults play, and one in ten calls themselves a gamer", "year": "2015", "market": "", "source": "Pew Research Center, Maeve Duggan (15 December 2015)", "link": "https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2015/12/15/gaming-and-gamers/", "source_slug": "pew-research-center" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "AARP, the American association for older people, counts 50.6 million players aged 50 and over, up from 40.2 million in 2016. 49% of women over 50 play, against 40% of men.", "card_text": "50 million Americans over 50 play at least monthly", "year": "2019", "market": "", "source": "AARP (17 December 2019)", "link": "https://www.aarp.org/press/releases/2019-12-17-aarp-research-finds-50-million-adults-age-50-plus-are-monthly-gamers-up-from-40-million-in-2016/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "AARP's next survey counts 52.4 million players over 50, which is 45% of Americans that age. They play 12 hours a week. 81% play alone, 84% play on a smartphone, and their favorite games are puzzles and card games. 69% say games are not designed with them in mind.", "card_text": "Older players mostly play alone, on a phone", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "AARP Research, Brittne Kakulla (April 2023)", "link": "https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/social-leisure/activities-interests/2023-gamers-50-plus/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The ESA moves its survey to a new firm and, for the first time, counts children aged 5 to 17. The average age it prints goes from 32 to 36 and the number of players falls from 212.6 million to 190.6 million. The ESA publishes nothing to connect the old figures with the new.", "card_text": "The ESA changes how it counts, and the average age jumps four years", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Entertainment Software Association (16 May 2024)", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/video-games-remain-lifelong-source-of-entertainment-for-190-6-million-americans/", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Ofcom, the British media regulator, finds 53% of UK adults play games, down from a lockdown peak of 60% in 2020. 85% of those aged 16 to 24 play, and 25% of those 65 and over.", "card_text": "In the UK a quarter of over-65s play, against 85% of 16 to 24 year olds", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Ofcom, Adults' Media Use and Attitudes Report 2025 (7 May 2025)", "link": "https://www.ofcom.org.uk/siteassets/resources/documents/research-and-data/media-literacy-research/adults/adults-media-use-and-attitudes-2025/adults-media-use-and-attitudes-report-2025.pdf", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The German games trade body puts the average player's age at 39.5, its highest yet, and the number of players over 60 at 7.7 million, up from 6.4 million a year earlier.", "card_text": "Germany counts 7.7 million players over 60", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "game, the German games industry association (13 May 2025)", "link": "https://www.game.de/so-viele-deutsche-wie-nie-zuvor-spielen-games/", "source_slug": "game-verband" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "In Brazil's official household internet survey, 38% of internet users aged 10 and over played online in 2025, the same share as in 2023. Among those aged 60 and over the share rose from 9% to 15%, and among those aged 10 to 15 it fell from 89% to 80%.", "card_text": "Brazil's older internet users play more, and its children less", "year": "2025", "market": "BR", "source": "Cetic.br, TIC Domicílios 2025, table C7 (read 30 September 2026)", "link": "https://cetic.br/pt/tics/domicilios/2025/individuos/C7/", "source_slug": "cetic-br-tic-domicilios-and-tic-kids-online-brasil" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The ESA's 2026 survey finds 212.3 million Americans play each week, with an average age of 37. 50% of Boomers, aged 62 to 80, play weekly, and 32% of those aged 81 to 90. Among Boomers, 52% of women play against 47% of men. 75% of parents play, and 81% of those play with their children.", "card_text": "Half of American Boomers play every week", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Entertainment Software Association (3 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/two-thirds-of-americans-play-video-games-every-week-according-tonew-report-from-the-entertainment-software-association/", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Northeastern University launches Games for Life, an initiative on games for older people. 'We've never been thinking about them as our core user base,' says Bob De Schutter, who leads it.", "card_text": "Researchers argue that older players are the audience the industry is missing", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Northeastern Global News, Cody Mello-Klein (2 June 2026)", "link": "https://news.northeastern.edu/2026/06/02/old-gamers-video-game-industry/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Bob De Schutter argues that while younger players spend less, on fewer free games, older players are an untapped audience who still pay full price for single-player games. His colleague Leanne Chukoskie adds that games built around fast reflexes carry a built-in bias toward the young.", "card_text": "Older players still buy the kind of game the industry struggles to sell", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Northeastern Global News, Cody Mello-Klein (2 June 2026)", "link": "https://news.northeastern.edu/2026/06/02/old-gamers-video-game-industry/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "AARP's Brittne Kakulla finds players over 50 spending an average of $49 every six months. Most of them say games are not made with them in mind and that they never see people like themselves in games. AARP expects 100 million American players over 50 by 2045.", "card_text": "A large group of paying customers feels ignored", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "AARP Research, Brittne Kakulla (April 2023)", "link": "https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/social-leisure/activities-interests/2023-gamers-50-plus/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Stanley Pierre-Louis, who runs the ESA, says the audience now mirrors in large part the demographics of the nation. The ESA pairs that with its finding that most parents play alongside their children, to argue that games deserve more trust from lawmakers than social media.", "card_text": "The industry uses the figures to argue with lawmakers", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "The Star, relaying AFP (8 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2026/06/08/us-gamers-getting-older-as-industry-reports-growth", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Felix Falk, who runs the German trade body, points out that only one in five German players is under 18. The fastest growth is among the over-60s, some of them players since the 1980s and some who started late.", "card_text": "The stereotype is years behind the numbers", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "game, the German games industry association (18 June 2024)", "link": "https://www.game.de/durchschnittsalter-der-spielenden-in-deutschland-steigt-erstmals-auf-ueber-38-jahre/", "source_slug": "game-verband" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The ESA describes the average age as rising to 37. It printed 37 in 2011, then 30 the year after, with no explanation. The jump from 32 to 36 came in the year it changed survey firm and started counting children, which should have pulled an average down. The series moves with the survey as much as with the players.", "card_text": "The ESA's own back catalog shows no steady rise", "year": "2011", "market": "", "source": "ESA Essential Facts 2011", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2011-EF-FINAL.pdf", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Ofcom's UK figures show how thin the span is: 25% of over-65s play, and 3% of them use a console. The share of all UK adults who play fell from 60% in 2020 to 53% in 2024. Ofcom's 2026 report gives 65%, with a warning that its method has changed.", "card_text": "At the top of the age range, players are still a minority", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Ofcom, Adults' Media Use and Attitudes Report 2025 (7 May 2025)", "link": "https://www.ofcom.org.uk/siteassets/resources/documents/research-and-data/media-literacy-research/adults/adults-media-use-and-attitudes-2025/adults-media-use-and-attitudes-report-2025.pdf", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The idea of households playing together does not fit AARP's data. 81% of players over 50 play alone, and only 20% name children or grandchildren as the people they play with. Nobody publishes how many households have two or more generations playing together.", "card_text": "Older players are not playing with their families", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "AARP Research, Brittne Kakulla (April 2023)", "link": "https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/social-leisure/activities-interests/2023-gamers-50-plus/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Late May or early June 2027, when the ESA usually publishes. It will be the fourth edition on the new method, and the first chance to see whether 36, 36, 37 is a trend.", "card_text": "The ESA's next edition", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Entertainment Software Association (3 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.theesa.com/two-thirds-of-americans-play-video-games-every-week-according-tonew-report-from-the-entertainment-software-association/", "source_slug": "esa" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Spring 2027, when Ofcom usually publishes. It will be the first report that can be compared with the new-method figure of 65% of UK adults playing.", "card_text": "Ofcom's next count of older players", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Ofcom, Adults' Media Use and Attitudes Report 2025 (7 May 2025)", "link": "https://www.ofcom.org.uk/siteassets/resources/documents/research-and-data/media-literacy-research/adults/adults-media-use-and-attitudes-2025/adults-media-use-and-attitudes-report-2025.pdf", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "game-preservation-and-digital-ownership", "name": "Campaigners are pressing to keep sold games playable", "stage": "Perennial", "category": "Culture & audience", "horizon": "perennial", "horizon_group": null, "horizon_line": "Ownership pressure on live service, and a value the next model can adopt.", "markets": [ "BR", "EU", "FR", "Global", "JP", "UK", "US" ], "what_it_is": "No government yet requires it. The European Commission said in June 2026 that it cannot propose a legal duty to keep games playable, and offered talks on an industry code. The UK says its law will not change, and a California bill failed. Campaigners have moved to the courts: a French consumer group is suing Ubisoft over The Crew. Old games are a separate problem, about whether a game can still be bought, not whether it still runs. The Video Game History Foundation found 87% of US games released before 2010 can no longer be bought.", "why_it_matters": "Many games need the publisher's servers to run, even when played alone. When the servers go off, the game stops working for everyone who paid for it. Players have organized against this, including a European petition with 1.29 million verified signatures.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Stop Destroying Videogames - Commission's reply to the European citizens' initiative", "link": "https://citizens-initiative.europa.eu/stop-destroying-videogames-commissions-reply-european-citizens-initiative_en", "type": "Primary", "format": "" }, { "source": "GOG brings back \"big box\" PC games, one printable template at a time", "link": "https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2026/09/gog-brings-back-big-box-pc-games-one-printable-template-at-a-time/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "Projeto de lei inspirado no Stop Killing Games é apresentado no Brasil para evitar que jogos morram", "link": "https://www.tecmundo.com.br/voxel/504819-projeto-de-lei-inspirado-no-stop-killing-games-e-apresentado-no-brasil-para-evitar-que-jogos-morram.htm", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Oct 2026", "where_to_follow": "European Citizens' Initiative register, stopkillinggames.com, r/StopKillingGames, Bellular News (YouTube), Digital Fairness Act consultations, UFC-Que Choisir, Video Games Europe statements", "status_label": "State of the rule", "measure_label": "What it says", "row_label": "", "series_label": "", "series_note": "", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "No government yet requires it. The ", { "text": "European Commission", "href": "https://citizens-initiative.europa.eu/stop-destroying-videogames-commissions-reply-european-citizens-initiative_en" }, " said in June 2026 that it cannot propose a legal duty to keep games playable, and offered talks on an industry code. The UK says its law will not change, and a California bill failed. Campaigners have moved to the courts: a French consumer group is suing Ubisoft over The Crew. Old games are a separate problem, about whether a game can still be bought, not whether it still runs. The ", { "text": "Video Game History Foundation", "href": "https://gamehistory.org/87percent/" }, " found 87% of US games released before 2010 can no longer be bought." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Definition", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "When you buy a digital game, do you own it, or are you only allowed to play it for as long as the publisher keeps it available? That is the digital ownership question. Preservation is the follow-up question: what happens to the game, and whether anyone can still play it, once the publisher pulls the plug.", "card_text": "What is digital ownership?", "year": "", "market": "", "source": "", "link": "", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The European Commission said in June 2026 that at this stage it cannot propose a legal obligation to keep games playable after a publisher stops supporting them. It will open talks with the industry on a code of conduct by the end of 2026.", "card_text": "No duty to keep games playable", "year": "2026", "market": "EU", "source": "European Citizens' Initiative portal, the Commission's reply (16 June 2026)", "link": "https://citizens-initiative.europa.eu/stop-destroying-videogames-commissions-reply-european-citizens-initiative_en", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The government told Parliament it has no plans to amend consumer law on disabling games. After a debate in November 2025, the only step it floated was guidance for sellers from the trading standards body.", "card_text": "No plans to change the law", "year": "2025", "market": "UK", "source": "Video Games Chronicle, Andy Robinson (4 November 2025)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/digital-ownership-must-be-respected-uk-parliament-debates-stop-killing-games-campaign-but-government-doesnt-budge/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Since 1 January 2025 it has been unlawful in California to advertise a digital license that can be revoked using the words buy or purchase, unless the seller makes clear that it is a license. The rule does not stop a game being switched off.", "card_text": "California: a rule about the word 'buy'", "year": "2025", "market": "US", "source": "California Legislative Information, AB 2426", "link": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240AB2426", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The US Copyright Office refused in October 2024 to let libraries and archives give researchers remote access to out-of-print games. Access on the premises is all the law allows.", "card_text": "Archives: no remote access", "year": "2024", "market": "US", "source": "Video Game History Foundation, Phil Salvador (25 October 2024)", "link": "https://gamehistory.org/dmca-2024-statement/", "source_slug": "video-game-history-foundation" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The consumer group UFC-Que Choisir sued Ubisoft in March 2026 over the shutdown of The Crew, alleging unfair contract terms and misleading commercial practices. The court has not ruled.", "card_text": "A lawsuit, no ruling yet", "year": "2026", "market": "FR", "source": "UFC-Que Choisir, press release (31 March 2026)", "link": "https://www.quechoisir.org/action-ufc-que-choisir-jeux-video-l-ufc-que-choisir-assigne-ubisoft-en-justice-suite-a-la-fermeture-du-jeu-the-crew-n175318/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A bill filed on 9 July 2026 would require sellers to say at the point of sale that a game depends on servers, to support it for at least two years, and to give 180 days' notice of a shutdown, followed by an offline version, tools for players to run their own servers, or a partial refund. The lower house approved urgency for it on 15 July, and it is listed as ready for a floor vote.", "card_text": "A bill, not yet law", "year": "2026", "market": "BR", "source": "Câmara dos Deputados, PL 3612/2026", "link": "https://www.camara.leg.br/proposicoesWeb/fichadetramitacao?idProposicao=2638495", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Publishers have had to deposit physical games with the National Diet Library since October 2000. The games can be accessed only for the purpose of research.", "card_text": "Kept by the national library, for research only", "year": "2023", "market": "JP", "source": "AUTOMATON West, Hideaki Fujiwara (6 June 2023)", "link": "https://automaton-media.com/en/news/20230606-19332/", "source_slug": "automaton" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "No rule requires a publisher to redeem or carry over virtual currency when it closes a game's servers. A class action against Take-Two over NBA 2K, filed in California in 2023 and still unresolved, argues that doing neither is theft from the player.", "card_text": "A claim that a closed server takes the currency with it", "year": "2026", "market": "US", "source": "Game File, Stephen Totilo (18 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamefile.news/p/nba-2k-theft-lawsuit-execs-speak", "source_slug": "game-file" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "From October 2000, Japan's legal deposit system, under which publishers must give the National Diet Library a copy of what they publish, covers video games on discs and cartridges. By 2025 it holds more than 9,600. The library says games sold as a download key, with no game on the cartridge, fall outside the scheme.", "card_text": "Japan's national library starts collecting games", "year": "2000", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Chronicle, Chris Scullion (25 August 2025)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/japans-national-library-says-it-wont-be-preserving-switch-2-game-key-cards/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Video Game History Foundation samples 1,500 games released in the US before 2010 and finds only 13% still commercially available. The study measures whether a game can be bought, not whether it has been preserved.", "card_text": "A study finds 87% of classic games are no longer on sale", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Video Game History Foundation, Kelsey Lewin (10 July 2023)", "link": "https://gamehistory.org/87percent/", "source_slug": "video-game-history-foundation" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A class action filed in California by a minor and his mother alleges that Take-Two takes from players when it closes servers for older NBA 2K games, usually about two and a half years after release, stranding unspent virtual currency bought with real money. Take-Two does not reimburse the balance or let it move to a newer edition. Documents unsealed in September 2026 show the publisher tracks each player's sessions, modes, hours and spending day by day.", "card_text": "A minor sues Take-Two over virtual currency lost when NBA 2K servers close", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Game File, Stephen Totilo (18 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamefile.news/p/nba-2k-theft-lawsuit-execs-speak", "source_slug": "game-file" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Ubisoft shuts down the servers of its racing game The Crew, which then stops working for everyone who bought it. The same week the YouTuber Ross Scott launches Stop Killing Games, a campaign to make publishers leave games in a playable state.", "card_text": "Ubisoft switches off The Crew, and a campaign starts", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Eurogamer, Tom Phillips (4 April 2024)", "link": "https://www.eurogamer.net/stop-killing-games-aims-to-mount-political-and-legal-challenges-to-games-going-offline", "source_slug": "eurogamer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "California passes a law, in force from January 2025, against advertising a revocable digital license as something you buy or purchase without saying that it is a license. Steam adds a notice to its checkout within weeks.", "card_text": "California restricts the word 'buy' for digital games", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Tom's Hardware, Luke James (1 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.tomshardware.com/video-games/console-gaming/playstation-store-buy-button-class-action-may-never-reach-a-courtroom", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Copyright Office declines to let libraries give researchers remote access to games that are out of print. The Video Game History Foundation says the games industry's lobby told the hearing it would never support remote access under any conditions.", "card_text": "The US Copyright Office refuses remote access to archived games", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Video Game History Foundation, Phil Salvador (25 October 2024)", "link": "https://gamehistory.org/dmca-2024-statement/", "source_slug": "video-game-history-foundation" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A petition of nearly 190,000 signatures forces a debate in Parliament. The minister, Stephanie Peacock, says the government has no plans to change consumer law, and describes online games as dynamic, interactive services, not static products.", "card_text": "The UK government says the law will not change", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Chronicle, Andy Robinson (4 November 2025)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/digital-ownership-must-be-respected-uk-parliament-debates-stop-killing-games-campaign-but-government-doesnt-budge/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "UFC-Que Choisir takes Ubisoft to court over The Crew. Buyers, it says, were never told the game had an expiry date.", "card_text": "A French consumer group sues Ubisoft", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "UFC-Que Choisir, press release (31 March 2026)", "link": "https://www.quechoisir.org/action-ufc-que-choisir-jeux-video-l-ufc-que-choisir-assigne-ubisoft-en-justice-suite-a-la-fermeture-du-jeu-the-crew-n175318/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The campaign's European petition was submitted in January 2026 with 1,294,188 verified signatures, enough to oblige the European Commission to respond. In June the Commission says that at this stage it cannot propose a legal obligation to keep games playable. It offers talks with the industry on a code of conduct for a game's end of life.", "card_text": "1.29 million signatures win a code of conduct, not a law", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "European Citizens' Initiative portal, the Commission's reply (16 June 2026)", "link": "https://citizens-initiative.europa.eu/stop-destroying-videogames-commissions-reply-european-citizens-initiative_en", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A bill requiring paid games to stay playable after their servers close passes the California Assembly by 43 votes to 16, then fails in a Senate committee, where four members vote yes, three vote no and the rest abstain. The campaign says it will take bills to other states.", "card_text": "California's keep-it-playable bill fails", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Chronicle, Chris Scullion (30 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/us-bill-requiring-paid-games-to-be-playable-after-they-shut-down-has-failed-to-pass-a-senate-vote/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The deputy Jandira Feghali files a bill in Brazil's lower house modeled on the campaign. It sets a minimum of two years' support, 180 days' notice before a shutdown, and fines of up to 1% of a game's Brazilian revenue.", "card_text": "A Brazilian bill would set a minimum life for games", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "TecMundo, Mateus Mognon (10 July 2026)", "link": "https://www.estadao.com.br/tecmundo/voxel/504819-projeto-de-lei-inspirado-no-stop-killing-games-e-apresentado-no-brasil-para-evitar-que-jogos-morram/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Four PlayStation users sue Sony in California over the 'buy' button in its store, the first case under the state's new law. In August Sony asks the court to send the case to private arbitration or dismiss it. Reasonable consumers, it argues, would not be misled, because its terms say buyers do not own the product. The motion was argued in San Francisco on 1 October 2026 and the judge had not ruled by the end of that week.", "card_text": "Sony tells a court that buyers know they do not own their games", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Tom's Hardware, Luke James (1 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.tomshardware.com/video-games/console-gaming/playstation-store-buy-button-class-action-may-never-reach-a-courtroom", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Take-Two delists NBA 2K25 from storefronts on 30 October 2026 and shuts its servers down on 31 December, two years after the game went on sale. Multiplayer and online modes stop on 1 January 2027, and MyCareer, the single-player story mode, becomes unplayable with them.", "card_text": "A single-player story mode is switched off with the servers", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Take-Two, via GamesIndustry.biz (6 October 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/nba-2k25-servers-to-shut-down-on-december-31-single-player-story-mode-will-become-unplayable", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Bronwyn Molony of the law firm William Fry reads the decision as a warning to sellers. Regulators can still use existing consumer law, she argues: calling a license that can be revoked something you buy or own may count as a misleading practice, and switching a game off may entitle buyers to refunds. The point, she adds, applies well beyond games, to apps, streaming and connected devices.", "card_text": "The Commission's no is not a reprieve", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "William Fry, Bronwyn Molony (11 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.williamfry.com/knowledge/eu-declines-video-game-playability-mandate/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "In the UK debate the Labour MP Mark Sewards warned that if the practice goes unchecked, the erosion of ownership rights may spread to other areas.", "card_text": "What happens to games could happen to other goods", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Rock Paper Shotgun, Mark Warren (3 November 2025)", "link": "https://www.rockpapershotgun.com/stop-killing-games-uk-petition-has-been-debated-in-parliament-the-law-works-but-companies-may-need-to-communicate-better", "source_slug": "rock-paper-shotgun" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Phil Salvador of the Video Game History Foundation says the industry's refusal to allow any remote access to archived games forces researchers to explore extra-legal methods to study games that cannot be bought.", "card_text": "Researchers are pushed outside the law", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Video Game History Foundation, Phil Salvador (25 October 2024)", "link": "https://gamehistory.org/dmca-2024-statement/", "source_slug": "video-game-history-foundation" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Kyle Orland of Ars Technica notes that the store GOG now pitches itself on exactly this. Its games come as files with no copy protection, so, in GOG's words, no one can ever take the games you paid for away.", "card_text": "Owning your games becomes a selling point", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Ars Technica, Kyle Orland (8 September 2026)", "link": "https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2026/09/gog-brings-back-big-box-pc-games-one-printable-template-at-a-time/", "source_slug": "ars-technica" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Video Games Europe, the publishers' trade body, says closing an online game must be an option when it is no longer commercially viable. Servers run by players, it argues, would strip out protections for data and safety and leave the rights holder liable, and a legal duty would make online-only games prohibitively expensive to build.", "card_text": "The industry says switching off has to remain an option", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Europe (4 July 2025)", "link": "https://www.videogameseurope.eu/news/statement-on-stop-killing-games/", "source_slug": "video-games-europe" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The ESA, the American trade body, told California lawmakers that the keep-it-playable bill rests on a false premise: that consumers own digital games. Games, it said, are licensed, not sold as unrestricted property. It reads California's labeling law as confirming that.", "card_text": "The industry says you never owned the game", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesRadar+, Dustin Bailey (11 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesradar.com/games/industry-lobbyists-ridicule-false-premise-that-consumers-own-digital-games-amid-stop-killing-games-fight/", "source_slug": "gamesradar" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Sony's first request is for private arbitration under its terms of service, which would take the case out of open court. An earlier California case over The Crew ended in a settlement with no ruling on digital ownership. Nobody publishes how many purchased games are made unplayable each year.", "card_text": "The test case may never reach the question", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Tom's Hardware, Luke James (1 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.tomshardware.com/video-games/console-gaming/playstation-store-buy-button-class-action-may-never-reach-a-courtroom", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The last quarter of 2026, when the European Commission is due to propose the Digital Fairness Act, a consumer law for digital products. The campaign wants Parliament to amend it to cover games that are switched off. The Commission has also promised to start its code of conduct talks by the end of the year. The separate KIDS Act the Commission adopted on 17 September 2026 is about minors, not about digital ownership.", "card_text": "The EU's Digital Fairness Act", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "European Parliament, Legislative Train Schedule", "link": "https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-protecting-our-democracy-upholding-our-values/file-digital-fairness-act", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Sony's request to move the case to individual arbitration, with a fallback request to dismiss it, was argued before a federal judge in San Francisco on 1 October 2026. The ruling will decide whether the claim is heard in court at all. No date for it has been published.", "card_text": "The ruling on Sony's 'buy' button", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Tom's Hardware, Luke James (1 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.tomshardware.com/video-games/console-gaming/playstation-store-buy-button-class-action-may-never-reach-a-courtroom", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "organized-game-labor", "name": "Game workers are winning union contracts", "stage": "Dominant", "category": "Culture & audience", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "rewriting-rules", "horizon_line": "Contracts now set terms for layoffs and AI inside big studios. Small teams and creators are outside them.", "markets": [ "CA", "EU", "FR", "Nordics", "UK", "US" ], "what_it_is": "In September 2026 nearly 1,900 workers at Blizzard, which Microsoft owns, ratified their first union contracts, following a first contract at ZeniMax in 2025. Every US contract so far is at a studio Microsoft owns, and Microsoft had agreed not to campaign against union drives. The contracts give laid-off staff first call on new jobs and extra severance, and oblige the company to bargain over AI. In Britain, 31 union members dismissed by Rockstar argue at a tribunal that they were fired for organizing, which Rockstar denies. In the GDC's 2026 survey, 82% of US developers supported unions, but only about one in eight of all respondents belonged to one.", "why_it_matters": "Most game developers long wanted a union, but almost none had one. Heavy layoffs changed that, and workers at some of the largest studios now have signed contracts. Employers and courts have not all gone along, so what unions can win is untested.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Game Worker Solidarity: Mapping and documenting collective movements by game workers", "link": "https://gameworkersolidarity.com/", "type": "Primary", "format": "" }, { "source": "One industry, one fight – Video Game Unions Present a United Front Across Western Europe", "link": "https://www.stjv.fr/en/2025/12/one-industry-one-fight-video-game-unions-present-a-united-front-across-western-europe/", "type": "Primary", "format": "" }, { "source": "Blizzard union workers ratify historic contract covering 1,900 employees", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/production/blizzard-union-workers-ratify-historic-contract-covering-1-900-employees", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Oct 2026", "where_to_follow": "Game Workers of America / CWA announcements, Game Developer labor desk, GDC State of the Game Industry, IGDA", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "Developers who say game industry workers should unionize, % answering yes, by GDC survey year", "series_note": "About half of developers backed unions in every survey from 2019 to 2024, rising slowly from 47% to 57%. The 82% reported for 2026 counts US respondents only and cannot be compared.", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "In September 2026 nearly 1,900 workers at Blizzard, which Microsoft owns, ratified their first union contracts, following a first contract at ZeniMax in 2025. Every US contract so far is at a studio Microsoft owns, and Microsoft had agreed not to campaign against union drives. The contracts give laid-off staff first call on new jobs and extra severance, and oblige the company to bargain over AI. In Britain, 31 union members dismissed by Rockstar argue at a tribunal that they were fired for organizing, which Rockstar denies. In the ", { "text": "GDC's 2026 survey", "href": "https://gdconf.com/article/gdc-2026-state-of-the-game-industry-reveals-impact-of-layoffs-generative-ai-and-more/" }, ", 82% of US developers supported unions, but only about one in eight of all respondents belonged to one." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Share of developers answering yes when the GDC survey first asked whether game industry workers should unionize. 26% said maybe and 16% no.", "card_text": "47%", "year": "2019", "market": "", "source": "GDC State of the Game Industry", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/audio/gdc-2019-state-of-the-industry-nearly-50-of-devs-support-unionization", "source_slug": "gdc-state-of-the-game-industry" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Share answering yes in the 2020 survey.", "card_text": "54%", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "GDC State of the Game Industry", "link": "https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/01/24/1975006/0/en/Game-Developers-Conference-s-2020-State-of-the-Game-Industry-Survey-Shows-Rising-Interest-in-Next-Generation-Platforms-Renewed-Faith-in-VR-Among-Game-Makers.html", "source_slug": "gdc-state-of-the-game-industry" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Share answering yes in the 2022 survey, which GDC called the highest yet. Only 18% thought it would actually happen.", "card_text": "55%", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "GDC State of the Game Industry", "link": "https://gdconf.com/article/gdc-state-of-the-game-industry-2022-devs-weigh-in-on-nfts-unions-and-more/", "source_slug": "gdc-state-of-the-game-industry" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Share answering yes in the 2023 survey. 24% said maybe and 13% no.", "card_text": "53%", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "GDC State of the Game Industry", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/game-platforms/devs-are-in-favor-of-unionization-but-most-haven-t-discussed-it-yet-", "source_slug": "gdc-state-of-the-game-industry" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Share answering yes in the 2024 survey, as reported by GDC's sister publication Game Developer. The figures for 2021 and 2025 could not be confirmed on an open page and are left out.", "card_text": "57%", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "GDC State of the Game Industry", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/half-of-us-game-workers-want-to-join-an-union-survey-says", "source_slug": "gdc-state-of-the-game-industry" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Paradox Interactive, the Swedish maker of strategy games, announces a collective agreement with two unions covering its studios in Sweden. It gives staff a formal say over pay, benefits and responsibilities.", "card_text": "A Swedish studio signs a collective agreement", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "Paradox Interactive, press release (3 June 2020)", "link": "https://www.paradoxinteractive.com/media/press-releases/press-release/paradox-interactive-to-sign-collective-bargaining-agreement-with-labor-unions", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Quality assurance staff, the people who test games, form a union of about 600 at Activision. Microsoft, its owner, had agreed not to campaign against union drives. The Communications Workers of America says it now represents over 1,000 Microsoft game workers.", "card_text": "About 600 testers at Activision form the largest union at a US studio", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Communications Workers of America (8 March 2024)", "link": "https://cwa-union.org/news/releases/quality-assurance-workers-activision-establish-largest-certified-union-us-video-game", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The French union STJV calls a strike across the whole games industry on 13 February 2025. By its own count about 2,000 workers take part, a fifth of the French industry.", "card_text": "French game workers hold their first industry-wide strike", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "STJV, GG25: one year after (February 2026)", "link": "https://www.stjv.fr/en/2026/02/gg25-one-year-after/", "source_slug": "stjv" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Communications Workers of America launches United Videogame Workers, open to any games worker in the US or Canada whatever their employer, including freelancers and people who have been laid off. More than 300 sign up in its first week.", "card_text": "A union that anyone in the industry can join", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Communications Workers of America (19 March 2025)", "link": "https://cwa-union.org/news/releases/video-game-workers-launch-industry-wide-union-communications-workers-america", "source_slug": "united-videogame-workers-cwa-local-9433" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "More than 300 testers at ZeniMax, the Microsoft-owned parent of Bethesda, ratify their first contract. It sets minimum wages, rules on the use of AI, and a guarantee that testers are named in a game's credits.", "card_text": "The first union contract at a Microsoft studio", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr (24 June 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/production/zenimax-union-workers-ratify-historic-contract-with-microsoft", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Rockstar, the maker of Grand Theft Auto, dismisses 34 staff in the UK and Canada on 30 October 2025, saying they leaked confidential information in a union chat group. 31 are members of the IWGB union. The workers say it came twelve days after the union announced it had enough members to seek recognition.", "card_text": "Rockstar dismisses 34 staff, 31 of them union members", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr (11 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/production/rockstar-and-fired-gta-developers-outline-core-arguments-during-union-busting-tribunal", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Games unions from Spain, Italy, Germany, Ireland, the UK and France meet in Paris and publish a joint declaration. Companies operate across borders, it says, so unions must organize across borders too.", "card_text": "Six unions in Western Europe agree to work together", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "STJV (9 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.stjv.fr/en/2025/12/one-industry-one-fight-video-game-unions-present-a-united-front-across-western-europe/", "source_slug": "stjv" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "In GDC's 2026 survey, 82% of respondents based in the US say they support unionization. 28% of all respondents have been laid off in the past two years. Only 10% belong to an industry-wide union and 2% to one at their company.", "card_text": "Four in five US developers say they support unions", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GDC State of the Game Industry 2026 (29 January 2026)", "link": "https://gdconf.com/article/gdc-2026-state-of-the-game-industry-reveals-impact-of-layoffs-generative-ai-and-more/", "source_slug": "gdc-state-of-the-game-industry" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Microsoft says it will cut about 3,200 jobs in its Xbox division by mid-2027, about 1,600 of them at once. The Communications Workers of America and its Canadian arm file labor charges, saying Microsoft dismissed union members without giving the union notice. Microsoft says it contacted the union to begin bargaining over the effects.", "card_text": "Unions file charges over how Microsoft handled its Xbox layoffs", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr (16 July 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/production/unions-take-legal-action-against-microsoft-for-allegedly-mishandling-xbox-layoffs", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "After two years of bargaining, workers across seven groups at Blizzard, another Microsoft studio, approve their first contracts. Laid-off workers get first call on new openings for 14 months and four extra weeks of severance pay, and the company must bargain over its use of AI.", "card_text": "Nearly 1,900 Blizzard workers ratify their first contracts", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Communications Workers of America (9 September 2026)", "link": "https://cwa-union.org/news/releases/blizzard-entertainment-workers-ratify-historic-video-game-contracts-cwa", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The workers allege that a junior employee passed information from the union's chat group to Rockstar's human resources staff on at least 26 occasions over 21 months. On 9 October 2026 the hearing was still sitting, and Rockstar's human resources manager told it he had taken 'little interest' in the union membership evidence the employee sent him.", "card_text": "The dismissed Rockstar workers' case reaches its final hearing", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr (10 September 2026), with Eurogamer (9 October 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/production/-justice-at-last-feels-within-reach-fired-rockstar-workers-rally-in-glasgow-as-union-busting-tribunal-begins", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "STJV's branch at Quantic Dream signs an agreement on 27 August 2026 on a redundancy plan aimed at a quarter of the studio's staff, and publishes the terms on 14 September. The supra-legal payment rises from the 5,000 euros management first offered on a forced departure to 35,000 euros, job-search support from 1,000 to 5,000 euros in metropolitan France, and relocation from 1,500 to 5,000 euros. The union says it can neither celebrate nor call it a victory.", "card_text": "A French union multiplies the payout on a redundancy plan at Quantic Dream", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "STJV, Un accord trouve dans la douleur pour le PSE a Quantic Dream (14 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.stjv.fr/2026/09/un-accord-trouve-dans-la-douleur-pour-le-pse-a-quantic-dream/", "source_slug": "stjv" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "King signs a collective bargaining agreement with Engineers of Sweden and Unionen on 25 September 2026, the day its workers had set for a strike, ending talks that began in May 2025. Engineers of Sweden represents about 100 of the roughly 500 staff at King's Malmo and Stockholm offices. The agreement gives employees the right to organize and to be informed in good time about workplace changes, naming reorganizations. The union describes it as a floor rather than a ceiling.", "card_text": "King signs a Swedish collective agreement hours before a strike", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr (25 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/-this-shows-the-power-that-comes-from-employees-joining-forces-king-signs-collective-bargaining-agreement-with-union-workers", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Workers on Dungeons & Dragons and D&D Beyond, and at Studio X, which makes tabletop Magic: The Gathering and Duel Masters, join United Wizards of the Coast with the Communications Workers of America on 6 October 2026 and ask Hasbro to recognize them voluntarily by 13 October. Their demands include protection from what they describe as management's push to adopt generative AI. The Magic: The Gathering Arena team, which announced its union in April 2026 and won its election in June, was not recognized voluntarily.", "card_text": "Wizards of the Coast's union expands and asks for AI protections", "year": "2026", "market": "US", "source": "Aftermath (6 October 2026)", "link": "https://aftermath.site/magic-the-gathering-dungeons-and-dragons-duel-masters-cwa-union/", "source_slug": "aftermath" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Employees at Double Fine, the studio behind Psychonauts, petition for a union in May 2026 and the drive fails. Kotaku reports in October that it left a rift in the studio that has not healed, and publishes an interview with the studio's chief executive Tim Schafer about it. It is the first unsuccessful organizing drive this page records.", "card_text": "A union drive fails at Double Fine", "year": "2026", "market": "US", "source": "Kotaku (9 October 2026)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/inside-the-failed-fight-to-unionize-one-of-gamings-most-idealized-studios-2000742755", "source_slug": "kotaku" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The Blizzard contracts show what a union changes. An employer can still cut jobs, but must offer laid-off staff new openings first and pay them more on the way out. The union's president, Claude Cummings Jr, presents it as good for players too: 'Greater power for workers is translating into more innovative games.'", "card_text": "Layoffs become something to be bargained over", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr (9 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/production/blizzard-union-workers-ratify-historic-contract-covering-1-900-employees", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Under the Blizzard terms the company has to discuss, evaluate and bargain over the use of artificial intelligence at work. The ZeniMax contract has AI rules as well. For these workers, how AI is used is no longer management's decision alone.", "card_text": "AI becomes a subject the employer must negotiate", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Communications Workers of America (9 September 2026)", "link": "https://cwa-union.org/news/releases/blizzard-entertainment-workers-ratify-historic-video-game-contracts-cwa", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Witt Yao, an organizer with United Videogame Workers, says that at its founding meeting every person in the room had either been laid off or knew someone who had. In GDC's 2026 survey, support for unions is highest among people who have lost a job in the past two years.", "card_text": "Layoffs are what recruits members", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer (8 April 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/production/-we-have-way-more-power-than-any-corporation-union-workers-call-on-developers-to-fight-for-their-future", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The six unions' declaration makes the argument directly: 'Multinational companies already operate globally', so unions must organize across borders. The Rockstar dismissals, in the UK and Canada on the same day, are the kind of case they have in mind.", "card_text": "Unions are starting to match the reach of the companies", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "STJV (9 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.stjv.fr/en/2025/12/one-industry-one-fight-video-game-unions-present-a-united-front-across-western-europe/", "source_slug": "stjv" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "In the same survey that found 82% support, only 10% of respondents belonged to an industry-wide union and 2% to one at their company. The 82% also counts US respondents only, with new answer choices, so it cannot be compared with earlier years. On the older question, support moved from 47% to 57% in five years.", "card_text": "Supporting a union is not the same as being in one", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GDC State of the Game Industry 2026 (29 January 2026)", "link": "https://gdconf.com/article/gdc-2026-state-of-the-game-industry-reveals-impact-of-layoffs-generative-ai-and-more/", "source_slug": "gdc-state-of-the-game-industry" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Microsoft had agreed not to oppose union drives, and in July 2026 it still set out to cut 3,200 Xbox jobs, while the Blizzard talks were unfinished. Unionized staff at Bethesda's Montreal studio were among those laid off, and the union had to file charges to be heard.", "card_text": "Contracts did not stop the cuts", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr (16 July 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/production/unions-take-legal-action-against-microsoft-for-allegedly-mishandling-xbox-layoffs", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "In January 2026 a UK judge refused to order Rockstar to keep paying the dismissed workers until the full hearing, unconvinced that union activity was the most likely reason for the dismissals. Rockstar says they were for gross misconduct. Nobody publishes how many game workers are union members, or how many contracts are signed each year.", "card_text": "The courts have not yet sided with the workers", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, with solicitor Jake McManus (January 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/understanding-interim-relief-in-context-of-iwgb-s-fight-against-rockstar", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "June 2027, the end of the window Microsoft gave itself for the rest of its games cuts. King's new agreement requires the company to inform employees in good time about workplace changes, naming reorganizations. King's parent has about a quarter of its announced restructuring left to make, and King took on Microsoft Casual Games three days before the agreement was signed. Whether the clause is used, and what it changes, is the test.", "card_text": "Whether the King agreement is used when Microsoft next reorganizes", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr (25 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/-this-shows-the-power-that-comes-from-employees-joining-forces-king-signs-collective-bargaining-agreement-with-union-workers", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Mid-October 2026, when the Glasgow hearing is due to finish. A ruling may come later.", "card_text": "The end of the Rockstar hearing", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr (10 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/production/-justice-at-last-feels-within-reach-fired-rockstar-workers-rally-in-glasgow-as-union-busting-tribunal-begins", "source_slug": "game-developer" } ] }, { "slug": "culture-war-discourse-and-the-weaponized-review-score", "name": "Players are using review scores as a protest vote", "stage": "Perennial", "category": "Culture & audience", "horizon": "perennial", "horizon_group": null, "horizon_line": "Players' standing veto, and it applies across every horizon.", "markets": [ "CN", "Global", "US" ], "what_it_is": "In May 2026 Slay the Spire 2 was review-bombed after players noticed Anita Sarkeesian, a target of the 2014 Gamergate campaign, listed as a consultant. Nothing in the game had changed. Steam left the period out of the score, as it has done for such waves since 2019. Most large review bombs are not political: the biggest, against Helldivers 2 in 2024, was about an account requirement. Adam Ruch's study documents what the critics believe. Nobody measures how widely that view is held.", "why_it_matters": "A review bomb is a wave of negative user reviews that can sink a game's store rating in a day. Players use it as a protest vote, over prices, account rules and politics alike, so a review score may not be measuring the game.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Forced: Perceptions of “Woke” Politics in Video Games", "link": "https://ijoc.org/index.php/ijoc/article/view/23165", "type": "Research", "format": "" }, { "source": "Steam review bombing is gaming's most powerful method of protest", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/games/third-person-shooter/steam-review-bombing-is-gamings-most-powerful-method-of-protest-3-takeaways-from-helldivers-2s-weekend-meltdown/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "I hate what the culture wars have done to the discourse surrounding this game", "link": "https://www.reddit.com/r/ShitHaloSays/comments/1vaslzl/i_hate_what_the_culture_wars_have_done_to_the/", "type": "Community", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "IJoC and Games & Culture (scholarly), Aftermath and 404 Media (critical journalism), Wired culture desk, SteamDB review-anomaly data", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "", "series_note": "", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "In May 2026 Slay the Spire 2 was review-bombed after players noticed Anita Sarkeesian, a target of the 2014 Gamergate campaign, listed as a consultant. Nothing in the game had changed. Steam left the period out of the score, as it has done for such waves since 2019. Most large review bombs are not political: the biggest, against Helldivers 2 in 2024, was about an account requirement. ", { "text": "Adam Ruch's study", "href": "https://ijoc.org/index.php/ijoc/article/view/23165" }, " documents what the critics believe. Nobody measures how widely that view is held." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "An online harassment campaign against women who make and write about games, among them the critic Anita Sarkeesian, reaches its peak. Its participants describe it as a campaign about ethics in games journalism. A Reddit forum founded that year becomes its main hub.", "card_text": "Gamergate targets women who make and write about games", "year": "2014", "market": "", "source": "Adam Ruch, International Journal of Communication (2025)", "link": "https://ijoc.org/index.php/ijoc/article/view/23165", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A review bomb is a burst of negative user reviews posted to drag down a game's score, often over something outside the game. Valve adds a chart to every Steam store page showing reviews over time, so that shoppers can spot one. It calls a bomb a temporary distortion and leaves the scores alone.", "card_text": "Steam names 'review bombing' and declines to change its scores", "year": "2017", "market": "", "source": "Valve, User Reviews (19 September 2017)", "link": "https://steamcommunity.com/games/593110/announcements/detail/1448326897426987372", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Valve says it will identify review bombs that are off topic and remove them from a game's score. A tool flags unusual activity and staff investigate. The reviews stay up, and any user can choose to count them.", "card_text": "Steam starts leaving review bombs out of the score", "year": "2019", "market": "", "source": "Valve, User Reviews Revisited (15 March 2019)", "link": "https://steamcommunity.com/games/593110/announcements/detail/1808664240333155775", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The review site Metacritic introduces a delay of 36 hours between a game's release and the opening of user reviews, so that, it says, players have time to play first. MCV notes that users had given The Last of Us Part II a score of 5.5 out of 10 against the critics' 94 out of 100.", "card_text": "Metacritic makes users wait 36 hours before reviewing a new game", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "MCV/Develop, Chris Wallace (20 July 2020)", "link": "https://mcvuk.com/business-news/metacritic-delays-user-reviews-in-a-bid-to-combat-review-bombing/", "source_slug": "mcv-develop" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Sony says PC players of Helldivers 2 will need a PlayStation account. Players post 200,000 negative reviews in under 48 hours, and within days Sony reverses the decision. The protest had nothing to do with politics. It showed how well the tactic works.", "card_text": "200,000 negative reviews in 48 hours make Sony back down", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "PC Gamer, Morgan Park (7 May 2024)", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/games/third-person-shooter/steam-review-bombing-is-gamings-most-powerful-method-of-protest-3-takeaways-from-helldivers-2s-weekend-meltdown/", "source_slug": "pc-gamer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Steam begins showing each shopper a score based on reviews in their own language by default, for games with enough reviews. Valve says it gives a better indication of what players like them think.", "card_text": "Steam starts showing review scores by the reader's language", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr (19 August 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/marketing/steam-defaults-to-language-specific-review-scores-to-provide-a-better-indication-of-user-sentiment-", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The card game Slay the Spire 2 launches in March with more than 574,000 people playing at once. Two waves of negative reviews follow, in March and April, both over changes to how the game plays, and many of them from players in China. Its rating for recent reviews falls from Overwhelmingly Positive to Mixed.", "card_text": "Slay the Spire 2's score falls twice over changes to the game", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesRadar+ (12 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesradar.com/games/roguelike/slay-the-spire-2-has-almost-80-000-negative-steam-reviews-nearly-14-times-more-than-the-first-game-received-in-9-years/", "source_slug": "gamesradar" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Around 5 May, users on X notice that Anita Sarkeesian is credited as one of the game's three consultants. 2,525 negative reviews arrive on 7 May alone, and the recent rating drops to Mostly Negative. Nothing in the game had changed. Steam marks the period as off topic and leaves it out of the score.", "card_text": "A third wave follows when players notice a name in the credits", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Kotaku, Lewis Parker (7 May 2026)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/slay-the-spire-2-is-getting-review-bombed-again-this-time-because-of-chuds-2000693961", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "GamesRadar+ reports that publishers are writing bans on generative AI into their contracts with developers, and credits players' boycotts and review bombs of games that used it.", "card_text": "Publishers start banning AI in contracts, for fear of the same treatment", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesRadar+, Jasmine Gould-Wilson (16 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesradar.com/games/the-backlash-against-gen-ai-in-video-games-proves-voting-with-your-wallet-works/", "source_slug": "gamesradar" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Morgan Park of PC Gamer argues that Steam reviews are not really reviews. 'They're something way more powerful.' Steam puts the rating at the top of every store page and words it as the verdict of all players, so moving it is the quickest way for a crowd to be heard.", "card_text": "Steam reviews have become gaming's protest vote", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "PC Gamer, Morgan Park (7 May 2024)", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/games/third-person-shooter/steam-review-bombing-is-gamings-most-powerful-method-of-protest-3-takeaways-from-helldivers-2s-weekend-meltdown/", "source_slug": "pc-gamer" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The media scholar Adam Ruch argues that Gamergate levered open a space on mainstream platforms for reading games as political. The critics he studied believe progressive politics are being forced into games by an organized campaign, to push out traditional players and attract investors. His paper is a close reading of selected Reddit threads and YouTube channels. It does not measure how many players agree.", "card_text": "Gamergate made room for a permanent argument", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Adam Ruch, International Journal of Communication (2025)", "link": "https://ijoc.org/index.php/ijoc/article/view/23165", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Rachel Kowert of the mental health charity Take This tells WIRED that large-scale harassment campaigns fuel, and are fueled by, political events. She expects more of them around elections.", "card_text": "Harassment campaigns rise and fall with politics", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "WIRED, Megan Farokhmanesh (14 March 2024)", "link": "https://www.wired.com/story/sweet-baby-video-games-harassment-gamergate/", "source_slug": "wired" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Casey Yano, co-founder of the studio behind Slay the Spire 2, says Chinese players feel that the only way to be heard is through Steam reviews, because their other routes to developers are restricted. GamesRadar+ relays the remark from an earlier interview.", "card_text": "For some players the review box is the only complaints desk", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesRadar+ (12 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesradar.com/games/roguelike/slay-the-spire-2-has-almost-80-000-negative-steam-reviews-nearly-14-times-more-than-the-first-game-received-in-9-years/", "source_slug": "gamesradar" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Valve has published a count only once: by February 2020 it had marked review activity as off topic 44 times in about eleven months, across all of Steam. It has called a bomb a temporary distortion from which scores generally recover. Nobody publishes a count by year, so no one can say whether review bombing is rising.", "card_text": "Valve says review bombs are rare and wear off", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "Valve, Steam 2019 Year in Review (5 February 2020)", "link": "https://steamcommunity.com/groups/steamworks/announcements/detail/1697229969000435735", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Helldivers 2 was about an account requirement. The first two waves against Slay the Spire 2 were about game balance. ComicBook.com, the source of the widely quoted figure that 65% of the game's 51,859 recent reviews were negative, says that total mixes anger over updates with anger over the credit.", "card_text": "Most big review bombs are not about politics", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "ComicBook.com, Tyler Fischer (9 May 2026)", "link": "https://comicbook.com/gaming/news/steam-pc-game-review-bombed-slay-the-spire-2/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Since 2019 Valve has removed review bombs it judges off topic from a game's score, though the reviews stay up and any user can choose to count them. A protest vote that the store leaves out of the total may be seen without being counted.", "card_text": "Steam does not count the votes it judges off topic", "year": "2019", "market": "", "source": "Valve, User Reviews Revisited (15 March 2019)", "link": "https://steamcommunity.com/games/593110/announcements/detail/1808664240333155775", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "3 November 2026, the US midterm elections. It is a test of the claim that harassment campaigns in games rise with election-year politics.", "card_text": "The US midterm elections", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "WIRED, Megan Farokhmanesh (14 March 2024)", "link": "https://www.wired.com/story/sweet-baby-video-games-harassment-gamergate/", "source_slug": "wired" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "From March 2027, the earliest that Slay the Spire 2 is due to leave early access, on its developer's estimate of one to two years. If Valve is right that review bombs are temporary, its recent rating should have recovered by then.", "card_text": "Whether the score recovers", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Steam, Slay the Spire 2 store page", "link": "https://store.steampowered.com/app/2868840/", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "esports-after-the-reckoning", "name": "Esports is running on Saudi money", "stage": "Receding", "category": "Culture & audience", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "stalled-bets", "horizon_line": "A transition that stalled, kept alive by a patron.", "markets": [ "EU", "FR", "Global", "KR", "MENA", "US" ], "what_it_is": "The Esports World Cup, funded by Saudi Arabia, has raised its prize money every year, to $75 million in 2026, and through its separate Club Partner Program pays 40 clubs a share of $20 million a year to promote it. Esports Charts calls Saudi capital the baseline funding source for the whole business. That carries risk: in 2026 the World Cup moved from Riyadh to Paris because of conflict in the region. Hours watched still grow. Teams are still cutting and selling cheap: Complexity was resold in 2024 for less than half its 2021 price, and Guild Esports closed in 2025. Both the boom coverage and the collapse coverage are out of date.", "why_it_matters": "Esports, organized competitive gaming for spectators, was sold to investors as the next sports league. By 2023 the money had run out, and teams cut staff or were sold for a fraction of old valuations. Most funding now comes from game makers and Saudi Arabia.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Esports Business H1 2026: 4 Shifts Reshaping the Industry", "link": "https://escharts.com/news/esports-business-h1-2026", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "Kiwoom aims to become the first publicly listed Korean eSports team", "link": "https://www.reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/comments/1v46rdr/investchosun_kiwoom_drx_krx_files_for_ipo_on_the/", "type": "Community", "format": "" }, { "source": "Who watched EWC 2026 co-streams? Audience demographics and key markets", "link": "https://streamscharts.com/news/who-watched-ewc-2026-co-streams", "type": "Data", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "SportBusiness, Esports Insider, Sports Business Journal esports desk, Esports Charts viewership data", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "Prize money announced for the Esports World Cup and its predecessor, $ millions, by year", "series_note": "The prize money has risen every year, from $45 million to $75 million, and the share set aside for clubs from $20 million to $30 million. It is one sponsor's spending, not a measure of the business.", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "The Esports World Cup, funded by Saudi Arabia, has raised its prize money every year, to $75 million in 2026, and through its separate Club Partner Program pays 40 clubs a share of $20 million a year to promote it. ", { "text": "Esports Charts", "href": "https://escharts.com/news/esports-business-h1-2026" }, " calls Saudi capital the baseline funding source for the whole business. That carries risk: in 2026 the World Cup moved from Riyadh to Paris because of conflict in the region. Hours watched still grow. Teams are still cutting and selling cheap: Complexity was resold in 2024 for less than half its 2021 price, and Guild Esports closed in 2025. Both the boom coverage and the collapse coverage are out of date." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Definition", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Esports is competitive video gaming, played for prize money in front of an audience, much like traditional sports. Its business has three separate players that people often mix up: the publisher owns the game and decides who can run competitions with it, the teams hire and pay the players, and the event organizers sell the tickets and the broadcast rights.", "card_text": "What is esports?", "year": "", "market": "", "source": "", "link": "", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Prize money announced for Gamers8, the Riyadh event that came before the Esports World Cup, in millions of dollars, as the Foundation restated it in 2024.", "card_text": "45", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Esports World Cup Foundation", "link": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/esports-world-cup-to-feature-record-breaking-prize-pool-of-more-than-60-million-302118030.html", "source_slug": "esports-world-cup-foundation", "series": "Total prize money" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Prize money announced for the first Esports World Cup, in millions of dollars. The Foundation said 'more than $60 million', so this is a floor.", "card_text": "60", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Esports World Cup Foundation", "link": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/esports-world-cup-to-feature-record-breaking-prize-pool-of-more-than-60-million-302118030.html", "source_slug": "esports-world-cup-foundation", "series": "Total prize money" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Prize money announced for the 2025 Esports World Cup, in millions of dollars. The Foundation said 'over $70 million', so this is a floor.", "card_text": "70", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Esports World Cup Foundation", "link": "https://esportsworldcup.com/en/news/ewc-2025-prizepool", "source_slug": "esports-world-cup-foundation", "series": "Total prize money" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Prize money announced for the 2026 Esports World Cup, in millions of dollars.", "card_text": "75", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Esports World Cup Foundation", "link": "https://esportsworldcup.com/en/news/prize-pool-and-full-game-schedule-press-release", "source_slug": "esports-world-cup-foundation", "series": "Total prize money" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The part of the 2024 prize money paid to clubs for their results across all games, in millions of dollars, shared among the top 16.", "card_text": "20", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Esports World Cup Foundation", "link": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/esports-world-cup-to-feature-record-breaking-prize-pool-of-more-than-60-million-302118030.html", "source_slug": "esports-world-cup-foundation", "series": "Of which, paid to clubs" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The part of the 2025 prize money paid to clubs for their results across all games, in millions of dollars.", "card_text": "27", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Esports World Cup Foundation", "link": "https://esportsworldcup.com/en/news/ewc-2025-prizepool", "source_slug": "esports-world-cup-foundation", "series": "Of which, paid to clubs" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The part of the 2026 prize money paid to clubs for their results across all games, in millions of dollars, shared among the top 24.", "card_text": "30", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Esports World Cup Foundation", "link": "https://esportsworldcup.com/en/news/prize-pool-and-full-game-schedule-press-release", "source_slug": "esports-world-cup-foundation", "series": "Of which, paid to clubs" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Gamers8, a festival in Riyadh, announces $45 million in prize money, then the largest sum in esports and three times its total the year before.", "card_text": "A Saudi event sets a record with $45 million in prizes", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Dexerto, Luís Mira (7 March 2023)", "link": "https://www.dexerto.com/esports/gamers8-announces-record-45m-esports-prize-pool-for-2023-event-2080125/", "source_slug": "dexerto" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "GameSquare agrees to buy FaZe Clan in a deal paid in shares and reported at $17 million. When FaZe announced its plan to go public in 2021, it was valued at $1 billion.", "card_text": "FaZe Clan, once valued at $1 billion, is sold for a reported $17 million", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "ONE Esports, Steven Cropley (21 October 2023)", "link": "https://www.oneesports.gg/culture/acquire-faze-clan-gamesquare-complexity/", "source_slug": "one-esports" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "100 Thieves lays off roughly 20% of its employees, its second round of cuts in a year, and spins off its game studio and its energy drink.", "card_text": "100 Thieves cuts a fifth of its staff", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "The Verge, Jay Peters (2 November 2023)", "link": "https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/2/23944060/100-thieves-layoffs-esports-apparel-core-juvee", "source_slug": "the-verge" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "GameSquare sells the American team Complexity to a group led by its founder, Jason Lake, for $10.36 million. Lake had sold it for $27 million in 2021.", "card_text": "Complexity is sold back to its founder for less than half its 2021 price", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Dexerto, Calum Patterson (13 March 2024)", "link": "https://www.dexerto.com/esports/jason-lake-rebuys-complexity-for-less-than-half-what-he-sold-it-for-2565018/", "source_slug": "dexerto" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Esports World Cup Foundation, funded by Saudi Arabia, announces the first Esports World Cup with prize money of more than $60 million. $20 million of it is the Club Championship, prize money shared among the top 16 clubs according to their results across every game.", "card_text": "The first Esports World Cup offers more than $60 million", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Esports World Cup Foundation (16 April 2024)", "link": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/esports-world-cup-to-feature-record-breaking-prize-pool-of-more-than-60-million-302118030.html", "source_slug": "esports-world-cup-foundation" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Foundation expands its Club Partner Program from 30 clubs to 40, with $20 million between them and up to $1 million each. This is a separate payment from the prize money on the chart. Clubs are paid for producing content and promoting the event, not for winning.", "card_text": "The Foundation puts 40 clubs on its payroll", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Esports World Cup Foundation (3 March 2025)", "link": "https://esportsworldcup.com/en/press-releases/ewcf-expands-club-partner-program", "source_slug": "esports-world-cup-foundation" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Guild Esports, a London team that raised 20 million pounds from investors in 2020, stops operating in August 2025 after a sale found no buyer. It had been sold for 2.1 million pounds the year before and was never profitable.", "card_text": "Guild Esports, once backed by David Beckham, closes", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "SportsPro, Ed Dixon (22 August 2025)", "link": "https://www.sportspro.com/news/guild-esports-closure-insolvency-david-beckham-august-2025/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Foundation sets the 2026 prize money at $75 million, with $30 million for the top 24 clubs and $7 million for the winning club.", "card_text": "The prize money rises to $75 million", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Esports World Cup Foundation (20 January 2026)", "link": "https://esportsworldcup.com/en/news/prize-pool-and-full-game-schedule-press-release", "source_slug": "esports-world-cup-foundation" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Riot Games announces that from 2027 every team in its Valorant leagues, including the partner teams with guaranteed places, must play through regional qualifiers that anyone can enter. Partner teams keep their payments from Riot.", "card_text": "Riot reopens its Valorant leagues to outsiders", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Esports Charts (28 July 2026)", "link": "https://escharts.com/news/esports-business-h1-2026", "source_slug": "esports-charts" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "OverActive Media, the Toronto-listed owner of Movistar KOI and two Call of Duty and Overwatch teams, reports record revenue of 28.5 million Canadian dollars for 2025 and a net loss of 11.4 million, up from 0.6 million the year before.", "card_text": "A listed team owner reports record revenue and a bigger loss", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "OverActive Media, annual results (28 April 2026)", "link": "https://overactive-media-group.prezly.com/overactive-media-reports-record-annual-revenue-of-285-million-in-2025", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "With conflict in the Middle East and flights canceled, the Foundation moves the 2026 Esports World Cup to Paris. 'Riyadh is the home of EWC,' it says.", "card_text": "The Esports World Cup is moved from Riyadh to Paris", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesBeat, Alexander Lee (14 May 2026)", "link": "https://gamesbeat.com/esports-world-cup-to-relocate-from-riyadh-to-paris-amid-middle-east-conflict/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Esports Charts counts more than 237 million hours watched for the 2026 Esports World Cup, up 29.5% on 2025. The peak audience of 2.89 million is 6% below the year before.", "card_text": "The Paris event draws 237 million hours of viewing", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Esports Charts, Dmytro Murko (28 August 2026)", "link": "https://escharts.com/news/esports-world-cup-2026-viewership-recap", "source_slug": "esports-charts" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Esports Charts argues that Saudi capital has become the baseline funding source for esports. It now sits in game publishing, in the largest tournament organizer, in event brands and in venues, as well as in prize money.", "card_text": "Saudi money is now the baseline, not an investor", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Esports Charts (28 July 2026)", "link": "https://escharts.com/news/esports-business-h1-2026", "source_slug": "esports-charts" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "HEROIC dropped out of the Club Partner Program in May 2026 after leaving Dota 2, a game its management called tough to make money from. The Foundation said the club no longer met the minimum requirements. To keep the payment, a club has to keep fielding teams in several games, including ones that lose money.", "card_text": "The subsidy comes with conditions", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "WIN.gg, Wasif Ahmed (15 May 2026)", "link": "https://win.gg/heroic-exits-ewc-club-partner-program-2026/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Esports Charts points to Los Ratones, a team that drew some of the best audiences of the European League of Legends season as a guest. However well it played, it could not earn a permanent place. That is the pressure behind Riot's decision to reopen Valorant.", "card_text": "Closed leagues leave popular teams with nowhere to go", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Esports Charts (28 July 2026)", "link": "https://escharts.com/news/esports-business-h1-2026", "source_slug": "esports-charts" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Watch time for the Esports World Cup rose 29.5% in 2026 and average viewers 36.9%, though the peak audience was 6% below the year before. Esports Charts adds its own caveat. The 2026 event had more tournaments and new qualifying stages, so part of the rise is more airtime rather than more people.", "card_text": "Hours watched are growing, not receding", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Esports Charts, Dmytro Murko (28 August 2026)", "link": "https://escharts.com/news/esports-world-cup-2026-viewership-recap", "source_slug": "esports-charts" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "No one publishes how many teams close each year or what teams earn in total. The evidence of trouble is a list of cases. Against it, Esports Charts reports that the Korean team T1 had its first profitable year in 2025, with revenue above $60 million, up 80%. It adds that Western teams continue to reduce costs.", "card_text": "Nobody counts the teams, and some are doing well", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Esports Charts (3 April 2026)", "link": "https://escharts.com/news/t1-finally-turned-profit", "source_slug": "esports-charts" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Statista projects worldwide esports revenue of $4.91 billion in 2026. The largest part, $2.80 billion, is betting on esports. That is not money teams earn, and nobody publishes a figure for what they do earn.", "card_text": "The headline size of esports is mostly betting", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Statista Market Insights, Esports, worldwide", "link": "https://www.statista.com/outlook/amo/esports/worldwide/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The chart shows what the Foundation announced, not audited payments, and two of the four totals were stated only as 'more than'. The rises are also getting smaller each year. The chart measures one sponsor's generosity. It does not measure the health of the business.", "card_text": "The prize figures are promises, from the body that pays them", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Esports World Cup Foundation (20 January 2026)", "link": "https://esportsworldcup.com/en/news/prize-pool-and-full-game-schedule-press-release", "source_slug": "esports-world-cup-foundation" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Early 2027, when Riot's Valorant season starts under the new format and partner teams play open qualifiers for the first time.", "card_text": "Whether partner teams lose their places", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Esports Charts (28 July 2026)", "link": "https://escharts.com/news/esports-business-h1-2026", "source_slug": "esports-charts" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Summer 2027, the next Esports World Cup. The Foundation moved the 2026 event to Paris and has put back its new Nations Cup, due in Riyadh in November 2026, to November 2027. Where it holds the 2027 World Cup will show how far the funding still depends on events in Saudi Arabia.", "card_text": "Whether the World Cup goes home to Riyadh", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Esports Foundation (18 August 2026)", "link": "https://esportsnationscup.com/en/press-releases/ef-postpones-enc-to-november-2027", "source_slug": "esports-world-cup-foundation" } ] }, { "slug": "games-media-capture", "name": "Games media is consolidating and shrinking", "stage": "Dominant", "category": "Culture & audience", "horizon": "h1", "horizon_group": null, "horizon_line": "The old coverage and discovery layer is hollowing out.", "markets": [ "AU", "BR", "Global", "UK", "US" ], "what_it_is": "Ziff Davis owns IGN, Eurogamer and GamesIndustry.biz. Fandom owns GameSpot and Metacritic, Valnet owns Polygon and Game Rant, and Future owns PC Gamer and GamesRadar+. Press Engine's figures show the number of games journalists down 25% in two years. Jackson Ryan's investigation for Aftermath showed a marketing company buying a games site and filling it with casino articles under AI-generated bylines. The alternative so far is small reader-funded sites owned by their writers, such as Aftermath and Giant Bomb.", "why_it_matters": "Most of what people read about games comes from a few websites, and most of the big ones have changed hands since 2022. Four companies now own the best-known names, and all four have cut staff. Check who owns a source before relying on it.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "The Secretive Company Filling Video Game Sites With Gambling And AI", "link": "https://aftermath.site/gameshub-clickout-media-seo-gambling-ai/", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "Four Companies Control Your Favorite Gaming Media", "link": "https://spilled.gg/companies-gaming-media/", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "Future, Ziff Davis to Struggle Most From Traffic Drops", "link": "https://www.amediaoperator.com/analysis/future-ziff-davis-to-struggle-most-from-traffic-drops/", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "Aftermath, Press Gazette (media business beat), Game File, local trade-body statements, WHOIS/company filings for suspect domains", "status_label": "What it owns", "measure_label": "What happened", "row_label": "Owner", "series_label": "", "series_note": "", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "Ziff Davis owns IGN, Eurogamer and GamesIndustry.biz. Fandom owns GameSpot and Metacritic, Valnet owns Polygon and Game Rant, and Future owns PC Gamer and GamesRadar+. ", { "text": "Press Engine's figures", "href": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/more-than-1200-games-journalists-have-left-the-media-in-the-last-two-years/" }, " show the number of games journalists down 25% in two years. ", { "text": "Jackson Ryan's investigation for Aftermath", "href": "https://aftermath.site/gameshub-clickout-media-seo-gambling-ai/" }, " showed a marketing company buying a games site and filling it with casino articles under AI-generated bylines. The alternative so far is small reader-funded sites owned by their writers, such as Aftermath and Giant Bomb." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A US media company. Its IGN Entertainment arm bought the British group Gamer Network in May 2024, and redundancies were confirmed the same day.", "card_text": "IGN, Eurogamer, GamesIndustry.biz, Rock Paper Shotgun, VG247", "year": "2024", "market": "Global", "source": "Video Games Chronicle, Andy Robinson (21 May 2024)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/ign-agrees-deal-for-gamer-network-sites-including-eurogamer-and-gi-biz/", "source_slug": "", "period": "Ziff Davis" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A company best known for fan-written wikis. It bought the sites in October 2022, laid off roughly 40 to 50 staff three months later, and sold Giant Bomb to its staff in 2025.", "card_text": "GameSpot, Metacritic, GameFAQs", "year": "2022", "market": "Global", "source": "Kotaku, Ethan Gach (19 January 2023)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/giant-bomb-gamespot-metacritic-fandom-layoffs-1850008228", "source_slug": "", "period": "Fandom" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Bought Polygon from Vox Media in May 2025, and many of Polygon's staff were laid off.", "card_text": "Polygon, Game Rant, TheGamer", "year": "2025", "market": "Global", "source": "TheWrap, Sean Burch (1 May 2025)", "link": "https://www.thewrap.com/polygon-layoffs-sold-valnet-vox-media/", "source_slug": "", "period": "Valnet" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A British magazine and website publisher, named as one of the four big owners.", "card_text": "PC Gamer, GamesRadar+", "year": "2025", "market": "Global", "source": "Spilled.gg, Riley Fox (1 October 2025)", "link": "https://spilled.gg/companies-gaming-media/", "source_slug": "", "period": "Future" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A marketing company. In February 2026 it laid off most of its editorial staff and kept a skeleton crew it calls AI Editors.", "card_text": "The Escapist, VideoGamer, Esports Insider, GamesHub", "year": "2026", "market": "Global", "source": "Kotaku, John Walker (17 February 2026)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/the-escapist-esports-insider-clickout-media-layoffs-2000669743", "source_slug": "", "period": "Clickout Media" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A games company, maker of the blockchain shooter Off the Grid. It revived the magazine in March 2025, rehired the whole team, and says the editors make all editorial decisions.", "card_text": "Game Informer", "year": "2025", "market": "Global", "source": "GamesBeat, Rachel Kaser (25 March 2025)", "link": "https://gamesbeat.com/gunzilla-games-acquires-resurrects-game-informer/", "source_slug": "", "period": "Gunzilla Games" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Bought from Fandom in May 2025 by the people who make it. Aftermath, started in 2023, is owned by its writers in the same way.", "card_text": "Giant Bomb", "year": "2025", "market": "Global", "source": "Aftermath, Luke Plunkett (10 May 2025)", "link": "https://aftermath.site/giant-bomb-sold-new-owners-jeff-fandom/", "source_slug": "", "period": "Its own staff" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A Brazilian newspaper group. In October 2025 it bought No Zebra Network (NZN), until then controlled by the investment firm H.I.G. Capital. NZN owns TecMundo and its games desk Voxel, now Voxl.", "card_text": "TecMundo, Voxl", "year": "2025", "market": "BR", "source": "TecMundo, Igor Almenara Carneiro (1 October 2025)", "link": "https://www.estadao.com.br/tecmundo/big-techs/407482-nzn-dona-do-tecmundo-e-adquirida-pelo-estadao/", "source_slug": "", "period": "Estadão" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Fandom, a company best known for fan-written wikis, buys GameSpot, Giant Bomb, Metacritic and GameFAQs in October 2022. Three months later it lays off roughly 40 to 50 staff.", "card_text": "Fandom buys GameSpot, Giant Bomb and Metacritic", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "Kotaku, Ethan Gach (19 January 2023)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/giant-bomb-gamespot-metacritic-fandom-layoffs-1850008228", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Four former Kotaku staff launch Aftermath, owned by its writers and paid for by subscriptions. 'The current ad-driven model most sites are built on is collapsing,' they say.", "card_text": "Former Kotaku writers start a site they own themselves", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer (7 November 2023)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/former-kotaku-staffers-launch-independent-game-and-culture-website-aftermath", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "IGN Entertainment, part of the US media company Ziff Davis, buys Gamer Network, the British group that owns Eurogamer, GamesIndustry.biz, Rock Paper Shotgun and VG247. Redundancies are confirmed the same day.", "card_text": "IGN's owner buys Eurogamer, GamesIndustry.biz and Rock Paper Shotgun", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Chronicle, Andy Robinson (21 May 2024)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/ign-agrees-deal-for-gamer-network-sites-including-eurogamer-and-gi-biz/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Gunzilla Games, which makes the blockchain shooter Off the Grid, buys Game Informer, the magazine its previous owner had closed, and rehires the whole team. Gunzilla says the editors make all editorial decisions. It is the clearest case of a games company owning a games outlet.", "card_text": "A blockchain game studio buys and revives Game Informer", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GamesBeat, Rachel Kaser (25 March 2025)", "link": "https://gamesbeat.com/gunzilla-games-acquires-resurrects-game-informer/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Vox Media sells Polygon to Valnet, the owner of Game Rant and TheGamer. Polygon's co-founder and editor-in-chief is among those laid off. Valnet was at the time suing TheWrap for $64.5 million over an investigation into how it treats its writers.", "card_text": "Polygon is sold to Valnet, and many of its staff are laid off", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "TheWrap, Sean Burch (1 May 2025)", "link": "https://www.thewrap.com/polygon-layoffs-sold-valnet-vox-media/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Fandom sells Giant Bomb to the people who make it, about a week after a round of layoffs. 'Giant Bomb is now owned by the people who make Giant Bomb,' they announce.", "card_text": "Giant Bomb's staff buy it from Fandom", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Aftermath, Luke Plunkett (10 May 2025)", "link": "https://aftermath.site/giant-bomb-sold-new-owners-jeff-fandom/", "source_slug": "aftermath" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Press Engine, a service that publishers use to reach the press, finds that more than 1,200 journalists at major outlets have left games media in two years, shrinking the pool by 25%. Counting freelancers and part-timers, more than 4,000 have gone since October 2023.", "card_text": "A quarter of games journalists have left in two years", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Chronicle, Andy Robinson (22 October 2025)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/more-than-1200-games-journalists-have-left-the-media-in-the-last-two-years/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Clickout Media, which owns The Escapist, VideoGamer and Esports Insider, lays off most of its editorial staff and keeps a skeleton crew it calls AI Editors. Severance pay is tied to non-disclosure agreements.", "card_text": "The owner of The Escapist replaces most editors with AI editors", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Kotaku, John Walker (17 February 2026)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/the-escapist-esports-insider-clickout-media-layoffs-2000669743", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "After eight months of reporting, Aftermath shows what happened to GamesHub, an Australian games site sold to Clickout Media in 2025 without the buyer being named. It relaunched with casino articles under author profiles whose photos were generated by AI. One byline produced more than 100 gambling articles. Within about two months of the relaunch the site's search traffic had fallen by half.", "card_text": "An investigation shows a games site refilled with casino content", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Aftermath, Jackson Ryan (2 March 2026)", "link": "https://aftermath.site/gameshub-clickout-media-seo-gambling-ai/", "source_slug": "aftermath" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Eurogamer makes its second round of editorial cuts since the 2024 sale, including its whole four-person video team. VG247 now exists only as a small guides operation run by two writers. Fandom, Future and Valnet have all cut jobs in the past year too.", "card_text": "Eurogamer loses its video team and VG247 is down to two writers", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Chronicle, Andy Robinson (26 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/games-media-set-for-more-layoffs-as-ign-owned-eurogamer-cuts-editorial-staff/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Ziff Davis lays off staff at IGN, including Brian Altano, Seth Macy and Bo Moore. Four of those laid off are union members, and the union says it was blindsided.", "card_text": "IGN lays off staff two months before Grand Theft Auto 6", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Aftermath, Luke Plunkett (14 September 2026)", "link": "https://aftermath.site/ign-layoffs-altano-macy/", "source_slug": "aftermath" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Jackson Ryan of Aftermath explains the business. A marketing company buys an established games site for the trust that search engines place in it, then uses that trust to rank pages about gambling. The old journalism stays up as cover. 'Should anybody be able to just buy a gaming website and then start ranking?' one of his sources asks.", "card_text": "A games site's reputation can be bought and spent", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Aftermath, Jackson Ryan (2 March 2026)", "link": "https://aftermath.site/gameshub-clickout-media-seo-gambling-ai/", "source_slug": "aftermath" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Aftermath appears on this page three times, as the investigator of GamesHub, as a staff-owned alternative and here as a voice, so it has a stake in this argument. Luke Plunkett, one of its founders, argues that as advertising collapses, corporate ownership of media sites is becoming increasingly exploitative. His answer is for the staff to own the site and the readers to pay for it.", "card_text": "Writers conclude they have to own the outlet", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer (7 November 2023)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/former-kotaku-staffers-launch-independent-game-and-culture-website-aftermath", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Gareth Williams, co-founder of Press Engine, expects games media to keep shrinking. Readers, he says, need to support it or lose it.", "card_text": "Support it or lose it", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Chronicle, Andy Robinson (22 October 2025)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/more-than-1200-games-journalists-have-left-the-media-in-the-last-two-years/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Riley Fox of Spilled.gg mapped the owners: Ziff Davis, Fandom, Valnet and Future, which owns PC Gamer and GamesRadar+. Fox argues that sites which depend on advertising from game publishers have a ceiling on how critical they can be. 'Ownership shapes what gets said. More importantly, it shapes what doesn't,' Fox writes. The piece offers no documented case of a review being killed.", "card_text": "Who pays shapes what goes unsaid", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Spilled.gg, Riley Fox (1 October 2025)", "link": "https://spilled.gg/companies-gaming-media/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The man behind the job-loss figures does not blame owners. Gareth Williams of Press Engine points to changes in how Google ranks sites, to AI summaries that answer a search without a click, and to coverage narrowing to the biggest games. That squeezes independent sites as hard as corporate ones.", "card_text": "The cause may be Google, not the owners", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Chronicle, Andy Robinson (22 October 2025)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/more-than-1200-games-journalists-have-left-the-media-in-the-last-two-years/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The claim that four companies control most games media appears in a headline and is not backed by a share of readers or of outlets. The map is already out of date: Giant Bomb has left Fandom, Kotaku belongs to a fifth owner, and new independent sites keep starting. The industry's trade press, often assumed to belong to game publishers, belongs to a media company, an events group and its own founders.", "card_text": "Nobody has measured how much the four groups control", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Spilled.gg, Riley Fox (1 October 2025)", "link": "https://spilled.gg/companies-gaming-media/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "When Gunzilla Games bought Game Informer it rehired the entire team, and says editorial decisions are the editors' alone. A sale can also be what keeps an outlet alive.", "card_text": "Not every sale has hollowed out the outlet", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GamesBeat, Rachel Kaser (25 March 2025)", "link": "https://gamesbeat.com/gunzilla-games-acquires-resurrects-game-informer/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "November 2026, when Grand Theft Auto 6 comes out. It is the biggest event for games coverage in years, and a test of how much search and AI traffic still reaches the outlets that cover it.", "card_text": "Whether readers still arrive", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Aftermath, Luke Plunkett (14 September 2026)", "link": "https://aftermath.site/ign-layoffs-altano-macy/", "source_slug": "aftermath" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Early 2027, the end of the nine months the UK competition regulator gave Google in June 2026 to let publishers opt out of its AI summaries while staying in search, and to credit them with clear links.", "card_text": "Google's UK deadline on AI summaries", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Competition and Markets Authority (3 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cma-secures-fairer-deal-for-publishers-and-improves-google-search-services-in-uk", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "studio-investment-in-games-plummets", "name": "Investors are pulling money out of studios", "stage": "Dominant", "category": "Money & business model", "horizon": "h1", "horizon_group": null, "horizon_line": "Capital is leaving the old model before a new one is proven.", "markets": [ "Global" ], "what_it_is": "Private investment in games companies fell from $12.0 billion in 2021 to $2.6 billion in 2025, on InvestGame's count. Matthew Ball's data, published while he was still an outside analyst, puts funding for studios down 85% since 2021. Companies still spend more on making games each year, but that spending grows more slowly than revenue, and a growing share goes to outside contractors. The move to smaller games looks mostly like having less money, not a new creative direction. A rebound in investment in 2026 has gone mostly to technology firms, not to studios.", "why_it_matters": "Big games cost more to make than ever, but outside investors are putting far less money into the studios that make them. Many studios now say they are focusing on smaller games, and from the outside it is hard to tell choice from necessity.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (Matthew Ball / Epyllion)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "type": "Data", "format": "" }, { "source": "The state of video games with Matthew Ball, Part One", "link": "https://www.thegamebusiness.com/p/the-state-of-video-games-with-matthew", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "European studio expenditure on external talent rises 63% in 2025", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/european-studio-expenditure-on-external-talent-rises-63-in-2025", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Oct 2026", "where_to_follow": "Matthew Ball / Epyllion annual State of Video Gaming, The Game Business (Christopher Dring), Game Developer's business desk, GameDiscoverCo", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "Money going into games companies by type of deal, $ billions, 2021 and 2025", "series_note": "Private investment in games companies fell from $12.0 billion in 2021 to $2.6 billion in 2025. Money spent buying whole companies rose from $37.7 billion to $65.8 billion, but the $55 billion sale of Electronic Arts is most of that, so the rise is largely one deal. Private investment here includes technology companies as well as studios.", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "Private investment in games companies fell from $12.0 billion in 2021 to $2.6 billion in 2025, on InvestGame's count. ", { "text": "Matthew Ball's data", "href": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026" }, ", published while he was still an outside analyst, puts funding for studios down 85% since 2021. Companies still spend more on making games each year, but that spending grows more slowly than revenue, and a growing share goes to outside contractors. The move to smaller games looks mostly like having less money, not a new creative direction. A rebound in investment in 2026 has gone mostly to technology firms, not to studios." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Private investment in games companies in 2021, in billions of dollars, on InvestGame's count: money put into companies that are not traded on a stock market. The total covers technology and platform companies as well as studios.", "card_text": "12", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "InvestGame's deal data, as reported for each year", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/InvestGame-Global-Gaming-Deals-Activity-Report-2020-2022.pdf", "source_slug": "", "series": "Private investment", "period": "2021" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Money spent buying games companies outright in 2021, in billions of dollars, on InvestGame's count.", "card_text": "37.7", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "InvestGame's deal data, as reported for each year", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/InvestGame-Global-Gaming-Deals-Activity-Report-2020-2022.pdf", "source_slug": "", "series": "Buying whole companies", "period": "2021" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Money games companies raised by selling shares on stock markets in 2021, in billions of dollars, on InvestGame's count.", "card_text": "24.5", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "InvestGame's deal data, as reported for each year", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/InvestGame-Global-Gaming-Deals-Activity-Report-2020-2022.pdf", "source_slug": "", "series": "Raised on stock markets", "period": "2021" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Private investment in games companies in 2025, down 45.8% in a year, across 450 deals: our sum of the four quarters on page 8 of Aream & Co.'s Q4 2025 update, which charts InvestGame's data.", "card_text": "~2.6", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "InvestGame's deal data, as reported for each year", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2026-01-13-Q4_2025_Aream_amp_Co_Video_Game_Market_Report.pdf", "source_slug": "", "series": "Private investment", "period": "2025" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Money spent buying games companies in 2025: our sum of the four quarters on page 8 of Aream & Co.'s Q4 2025 update. The $55 billion sale of Electronic Arts, announced rather than closed, is most of it.", "card_text": "~65.8", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "InvestGame's deal data, as reported for each year", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2026-01-13-Q4_2025_Aream_amp_Co_Video_Game_Market_Report.pdf", "source_slug": "", "series": "Buying whole companies", "period": "2025" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Money games companies raised on stock markets in 2025, up 12% in a year: our sum of the four quarters on page 8 of Aream & Co.'s Q4 2025 update.", "card_text": "~11.2", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "InvestGame's deal data, as reported for each year", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2026-01-13-Q4_2025_Aream_amp_Co_Video_Game_Market_Report.pdf", "source_slug": "", "series": "Raised on stock markets", "period": "2025" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Investment peaks. InvestGame counts $12.0 billion in private investment (money investors put into companies not traded on the stock market) across 562 deals. Another $37.7 billion went to buying companies, and $24.5 billion was raised by selling shares on stock markets. From 2020 to 2022, private investors put in more than $28 billion across more than 1,460 deals. Late-stage funding across all games companies reached $8.8 billion. Krafton listed on the stock market at $3.75 billion.", "card_text": "The year the money peaked", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "InvestGame, Global Gaming Deals Activity Report 2020 to 2022 (February 2023)", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/InvestGame-Global-Gaming-Deals-Activity-Report-2020-2022.pdf", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "InvestGame's review of 2023: the number and value of deals fell by more than half compared with 2020 to 2022. Studios raised money at lower valuations or shut down after failing to grow into what investors had paid for them. Late-stage funding for game developers and publishers specifically fell from $6.7 billion across 2020 and 2021 to $1.2 billion across the next two years. Seed funding, the first money a startup raises, held up, but the average early funding round shrank from $21 million in 2021 to $13 million.", "card_text": "Late-stage money for studios dries up", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "InvestGame, Global Gaming Deals Activity Report 2023 (13 February 2024)", "link": "https://investgame.net/news/global-gaming-deals-activity-report-2023/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Hacked files from Insomniac, the studio behind Marvel's Spider-Man, show that Spider-Man 2 cost about $300 million. That is almost three times the 2018 original and $30 million over budget, and the game needed to sell 7.2 million full-price copies to break even. Miles Morales cost $90 million and sold more than 10 million. An internal slide caps future big-budget games at $350 million.", "card_text": "Spider-Man 2 costs three times its predecessor", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Kotaku, Ethan Gach, What hacked files tell us about the studio behind Spider-Man 2 (20 December 2023)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/what-hacked-files-tell-us-about-the-studio-behind-spide-1851115233", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "In 2024, private investment recovers, but the money comes from different places. Private equity firms buy Keywords Studios and Jagex outright. The investment arms of Tencent and Krafton back established studios such as Build A Rocket Boy. Venture funds shift to technology startups, including Inworld AI, Luma AI, and Magic Leap. Companies that make games under contract for others grow as publishers outsource work after layoffs, and Keywords sells for $2.8 billion.", "card_text": "The rebound is private equity and outsourcing", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "InvestGame, Global Gaming Deals Report 2024 (23 January 2025)", "link": "https://investgame.net/news/global-gaming-deals-report-2024/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Aream & Co.'s quarterly figures from InvestGame's data add up to $2.6 billion of private investment in 2025 across 450 deals, down 45.8%, beside $65.8 billion spent buying companies, $55 billion of it the announced sale of Electronic Arts. Private investment in the fourth quarter is $0.9 billion, up 29% from a year earlier, mostly in gaming technology and Turkish mobile studios.", "card_text": "Private investment nearly halves, beside a record buyout", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Our calculation from Aream & Co.'s figures (13 January 2026)", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2026-01-13-Q4_2025_Aream_amp_Co_Video_Game_Market_Report.pdf", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Matthew Ball's annual State of Video Gaming report: private funding falls another 55% in 2025. Ball counts only startup funding for studios, while InvestGame's 45.8% includes all private investment, so the two numbers differ. In the last quarter, there was under $100 million for the newest startups, just over $200 million for early-stage companies, and about 40 deals in all. At its peak in the third quarter of 2021, early-stage funding was about $1.3 billion. The industry spends more than $40 billion making games for the second year in a row, but that spending, as a share of revenue, falls to a seven-year low even as game sales grow 5% to a record.", "card_text": "Ball: content investment at a seven-year low", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "PocketGamer.biz, Aaron Astle, on The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (17 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/matthew-balls-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026-china-is-eating-the-video-games-industry/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Ball's report, using IDG Intelligence's figures: the industry spends $41.4 billion making games in 2025. That is up $2.3 billion, or 6%, since 2022, after growing $10.9 billion, or 39%, from 2019 to 2022. Outsourcing takes a record 35.5% of that spending, up from 30.6% in 2017. Since 2022, about 65% of the added spending has gone to outsourcing, compared with 33% from 2018 to 2022.", "card_text": "Spending on making games flattens, and outsourcing takes the growth", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026, on IDG Intelligence's data (deck updated 15 May 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Values Value's Talent Signals report: European studios increased spending on outside workers by 63% in 2025, compared with 55% worldwide, and the number of freelancers working with them grew 24%. Nearly 60% of studios say they struggle to find qualified specialists. Among people surveyed, 30% had been laid off in the past year, and it took them about six months to find their next job.", "card_text": "Spending on outside talent rises 63%", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz, Sophie McEvoy, on Values Value's Talent Signals report (11 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/european-studio-expenditure-on-external-talent-rises-63-in-2025", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Ball tells journalist Christopher Dring that investment in studios has fallen 85% since 2021 and is now below 2019 levels. Over the same period, revenue is up 30 to 40%, and the cost of each developer has risen with inflation. Counting only new games, and leaving out the pandemic year, the industry now spends less, as a share of revenue, than at any point on record.", "card_text": "Down 85% from 2021, below 2019", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "The Game Business, Christopher Dring, The state of video games with Matthew Ball, part one (19 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.thegamebusiness.com/p/the-state-of-video-games-with-matthew", "source_slug": "the-game-business" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Xbox names the analyst Matthew Ball, whose report and interview this page draws on, as its chief strategy officer on 20 May 2026. Both date from February 2026, when he was still an outside analyst. From this point his public comments are an Xbox executive's.", "card_text": "Xbox hires Matthew Ball as chief strategy officer", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Kotaku, Ethan Gach (20 May 2026)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/xbox-taps-everyones-favorite-game-industry-chart-guy-to-lead-strategy-and-save-its-console-2000697952", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "First quarter: $0.8 billion in private investment across 101 deals. Early-stage funding is at its lowest in recent years, as the economy weakens and investors move money into AI. Spending on buying companies reaches $7.7 billion, led by Savvy's $6 billion purchase of Moonton.", "card_text": "Early-stage funding hits a recent low", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "InvestGame, Aream & Co. Q1 2026 Gaming Market Update (8 April 2026)", "link": "https://investgame.net/news/aream-co-releases-q1-2026-gaming-market-update/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Second quarter: $3.1 billion across 108 deals, about six times a year earlier and the biggest quarter in years. Most of it goes to companies that build technology for the games industry rather than make games, including very large funding rounds for AppsFlyer, General Intuition, Odyssey, and Decart.", "card_text": "The biggest quarter in years, mostly not for games", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "InvestGame, Aream & Co. Q2 2026 Gaming Market Update (9 July 2026)", "link": "https://investgame.net/news/aream-co-releases-q2-2026-gaming-market-update/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The money still being spent is increasingly leaving the studio. Ball says a growing share of game-making budgets now goes to outside development companies, which usually are not the ones coming up with new ideas. His report puts outsourcing at a record 35.5% of what the industry spends making games, with about 65% of the added spending since 2022 going outside. InvestGame saw the same thing in 2024, when contract developers grew as publishers outsourced work after layoffs.", "card_text": "More of the money goes to outside developers", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "The Game Business, Christopher Dring, The state of video games with Matthew Ball, part one (19 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.thegamebusiness.com/p/the-state-of-video-games-with-matthew", "source_slug": "the-game-business" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Studios are moving to a two-tier model. A small permanent core of directors, lead architects, and the people who protect a series' creative direction get equity, health coverage, and bonuses. Contractors and freelancers are hired for a short push or one stage of development, then let go when it ends. Tanja Loktionova, the founder of Values Value and author of the report, calls it an industry that has moved past growth at any cost and has not yet found what replaces it.", "card_text": "Studios keep a small permanent team and hire the rest", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz, Sophie McEvoy, on Values Value's Talent Signals report (11 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/european-studio-expenditure-on-external-talent-rises-63-in-2025", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Budget limits come before creative decisions. Insomniac's own slides question whether players can actually see the result of tripling Spider-Man 2's budget, and they cap future big-budget games at $350 million. Miles Morales, which cost less than a third as much, sold more than 10 million copies. A smaller next game is a financial decision before it is a creative one.", "card_text": "Insomniac capped its next games at $350 million", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Kotaku, Ethan Gach, What hacked files tell us about the studio behind Spider-Man 2 (20 December 2023)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/what-hacked-files-tell-us-about-the-studio-behind-spide-1851115233", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "More funding may not be the fix. Ball notes that new ideas are still coming from small projects, pointing to Mewgenics and Block Blast. He says it is not clear whether more venture funding, more studio funding, or reinvesting more revenue would lead to more innovation.", "card_text": "Ball is not sure more money would help", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "The Game Business, Christopher Dring, The state of video games with Matthew Ball, part one (19 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.thegamebusiness.com/p/the-state-of-video-games-with-matthew", "source_slug": "the-game-business" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Money has not left games. It is buying companies. Aream & Co.'s quarterly figures add up to about $80 billion of deals in 2025, 3.3 times 2024. That includes $65.8 billion spent buying companies, led by the $55 billion sale of Electronic Arts, and $11.2 billion raised on stock markets, up 12%. The money is going to established companies rather than new studios. That is a different problem from investors abandoning games.", "card_text": "Investors are still spending, but on buying whole companies", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Our calculation from Aream & Co.'s figures (13 January 2026)", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2026-01-13-Q4_2025_Aream_amp_Co_Video_Game_Market_Report.pdf", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Private investment reached $3.1 billion in the second quarter of 2026, about six times a year earlier and the most in years, after just $0.8 billion in the first quarter. Most of it went to companies that build technology for games, not to game studios. Whether any of it reaches studios is still an open question.", "card_text": "Investment jumped in one quarter, mostly for tech companies", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "InvestGame, Aream & Co. Q2 2026 Gaming Market Update (9 July 2026)", "link": "https://investgame.net/news/aream-co-releases-q2-2026-gaming-market-update/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "InvestGame's third-quarter update, due in October. It will show whether the second quarter's $3.1 billion was repeated, and how much went to game developers and publishers rather than technology companies.", "card_text": "Whether the second quarter repeats", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "InvestGame, reports", "link": "https://investgame.net/news/reports/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Ball's next State of Video Gaming report, due early in 2027. Two figures matter: whether spending on making games, as a share of revenue, recovers from its seven-year low, and whether investment in studios climbs back above 2019 levels.", "card_text": "Whether the investment share turns in 2027", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/all/presentation-the-state-of-video-gaming-in-2026", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" } ] }, { "slug": "platforms-bet-on-exclusivity-again", "name": "Console makers are keeping games exclusive again", "stage": "Emerging", "category": "Platform & distribution", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "prolongs-h1", "horizon_line": "Platform holders reaching back for an old lever.", "markets": [ "Global", "JP", "US" ], "what_it_is": "In June 2026 Xbox named Gears of War: E-Day and Clockwork Revolution as permanent console exclusives, and said its multiplayer games will still be sold everywhere. Bloomberg's Jason Schreier reports that Sony's single-player games will stop coming to PC, which Sony has not announced. Circana's survey finds exclusives are still Americans' top reason for playing on a console, though fewer say so than a year ago. The change is narrow. Xbox has named only two games, and Halo, Forza Horizon 6 and Fable are all still headed to PlayStation 5.", "why_it_matters": "For years the walls between consoles came down. Sony sold its biggest games on PC, and Microsoft put Xbox games on PlayStation. In 2026 Xbox named exclusives again, and Sony is reported to be doing the same, while multiplayer games still go everywhere.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Should PlayStation and Xbox change their plans on exclusive games?", "link": "https://www.thegamebusiness.com/p/should-playstation-and-xbox-change", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "Xbox console exclusives are returning on a ‘case-by-case’ basis", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/xbox-console-exclusives-are-returning-on-a-case-by-case-basis", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "Xbox to publish Kojima Productions' Physint after PlayStation said it would cancel the project", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/xbox-to-publish-kojima-productions-physint-after-it-unexpectedly-received-notice-from-playstation-that-it-would-cancel-the-project", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Oct 2026", "where_to_follow": "The Game Business (Christopher Dring), Game File (Stephen Totilo), Video Games Chronicle, Circana consumer surveys", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "", "series_note": "", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "In June 2026 Xbox named Gears of War: E-Day and Clockwork Revolution as permanent console exclusives, and said its multiplayer games will still be sold everywhere. ", { "text": "Bloomberg's Jason Schreier", "href": "https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2026/03/sony-returns-to-playstation-exclusivity-and-stops-single-player-pc-ports-new-report-says" }, " reports that Sony's single-player games will stop coming to PC, which Sony has not announced. ", { "text": "Circana's survey", "href": "https://www.thegamebusiness.com/p/should-playstation-and-xbox-change" }, " finds exclusives are still Americans' top reason for playing on a console, though fewer say so than a year ago. The change is narrow. Xbox has named only two games, and Halo, Forza Horizon 6 and Fable are all still headed to PlayStation 5." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Microsoft confirms that Pentiment, Hi-Fi Rush, Grounded and Sea of Thieves will come to PlayStation 5 and PlayStation 4. All four were first released as Xbox and PC games.", "card_text": "Microsoft sends four Xbox games to PlayStation", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Push Square, Liam Croft (21 February 2024)", "link": "https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2024/02/xbox-games-hi-fi-rush-sea-of-thieves-pentiment-grounded-all-confirmed-for-ps5-ps4", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Sony's God of War Ragnarok arrives on PC two years after its console release and draws about 300,000 players in its first month, on Ampere Analysis's estimate. Its console launch in 2022 drew 6.9 million. Both figures count people who played, not copies sold.", "card_text": "God of War Ragnarok draws 300,000 players in its first month on PC", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "The Game Business, Christopher Dring (30 April 2026)", "link": "https://www.thegamebusiness.com/p/should-playstation-and-xbox-change", "source_slug": "the-game-business" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Halo: Campaign Evolved, a remake of the first Halo, is announced for PlayStation 5, to arrive the same day as on Xbox. It is the first Halo game on a PlayStation.", "card_text": "Halo is announced for PlayStation", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "PlayStation Blog, Brian Jarrard of Halo Studios (24 October 2025)", "link": "https://blog.playstation.com/2025/10/24/halo-campaign-evolved-launches-on-ps5-in-2026/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Alinea Analytics estimates that PlayStation's own games have sold 43 million copies on Steam, the main PC games store, and grossed more than $1.5 billion. It also finds each sequel selling far slower there than the game before it: God of War Ragnarok at less than half the pace of God of War over the same number of days. Rhys Elliott writes that the novelty appears to be wearing off.", "card_text": "Sony's later PC releases sell far slower than its early ones", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Alinea Analytics, Rhys Elliott (24 November 2025)", "link": "https://alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/the-top-selling-playstation-games", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Asha Sharma becomes chief executive of Microsoft's games business as Phil Spencer retires.", "card_text": "Microsoft names a new head of Xbox", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Official Microsoft Blog (20 February 2026)", "link": "https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2026/02/20/asha-sharma-named-evp-and-ceo-microsoft-gaming/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Bloomberg's Jason Schreier reports that Sony, the Japanese maker of the PlayStation, is backing away from PC versions of its single-player games, with Ghost of Yotei and Saros to stay on PlayStation 5, while its multiplayer games still go to PC. In May he reports that Hermen Hulst, who runs PlayStation's studios, told a staff meeting the same thing. Sony has not announced the policy publicly.", "card_text": "Sony is reported to be pulling its single-player games back from PC", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Push Square, Liam Croft, relaying Bloomberg (4 March 2026)", "link": "https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2026/03/sony-returns-to-playstation-exclusivity-and-stops-single-player-pc-ports-new-report-says", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Circana's survey for the first quarter finds 41% of US players say they play on a console because of exclusive games. It is still the most common reason given, but it is down 8 points from a year earlier. Playing with friends and family comes next at 38%.", "card_text": "Fewer US players say exclusives are why they play on a console", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "The Game Business, Christopher Dring (30 April 2026)", "link": "https://www.thegamebusiness.com/p/should-playstation-and-xbox-change", "source_slug": "the-game-business" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Xbox names the analyst Matthew Ball as its chief strategy officer, reporting to Asha Sharma, with the future of the console as his first job. From this point his public comments on platform strategy are an Xbox executive's, not an outside analyst's.", "card_text": "Xbox hires Matthew Ball as chief strategy officer", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Kotaku, Ethan Gach (20 May 2026)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/xbox-taps-everyones-favorite-game-industry-chart-guy-to-lead-strategy-and-save-its-console-2000697952", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "At its June showcase Xbox says Gears of War: E-Day and Clockwork Revolution are console exclusives and that they are not timed, meaning they are not due on other consoles later. Games already announced for other consoles keep those plans. The next day Matthew Ball says multiplayer games such as Call of Duty stay on every platform, and the day after that studio chief Matt Booty says exclusives will be decided case by case.", "card_text": "Xbox names two games that will never leave Xbox and PC", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Chronicle, Andy Robinson (7 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/xbox-says-gears-of-war-and-clockwork-revolution-console-exclusives-are-not-timed/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Kojima Productions says it unexpectedly received notice in mid-June that PlayStation would cancel Physint, its spy action game, and announces that Xbox will publish it instead. Sony says it made the difficult decision to step away. The game had been announced in 2024 as a PlayStation exclusive.", "card_text": "Xbox picks up Hideo Kojima's Physint after PlayStation drops it", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz, Sophie McEvoy (10 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/xbox-to-publish-kojima-productions-physint-after-it-unexpectedly-received-notice-from-playstation-that-it-would-cancel-the-project", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Bloomberg reports that Sony left over missed deadlines, a budget running well over plan, and both Death Stranding games missing their revenue targets. It also reports that Sony was reluctant to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on a game that would not have stayed exclusive to PlayStation. Xbox plans to release it on Xbox and PC.", "card_text": "Bloomberg reports why Sony walked away from Physint", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Gematsu, Sal Romano, relaying Bloomberg (11 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gematsu.com/2026/09/bloomberg-sony-interactive-entertainment-stepped-away-from-physint-over-missed-deadlines-budget-concerns", "source_slug": "gematsu" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Gears of War: E-Day, the first of the two games Xbox said would never leave Xbox and PC, is released on 6 October 2026 after advance access from 1 October. Alinea Analytics estimates 230,000 copies sold in its first days, 168,000 of them on Steam against 62,000 across Xbox console and PC, and $37 million in revenue. It estimates a further 1.7 million people reached the game through Game Pass rather than buying it, 722,000 of whom paid $30 for the upgrade that unlocked advance access.", "card_text": "The first permanent Xbox exclusive sells most of its copies on Steam", "year": "2026", "market": "US", "source": "Alinea Analytics (9 October 2026)", "link": "https://alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/gears-of-war-e-day-sells-230k-copies", "source_slug": "alinea-analytics" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Xbox will not publish a rule. Matt Booty says each game will be decided case by case, and that a game has a platform when it has a release date. Matthew Ball answered 'no comment' when asked why Clockwork Revolution was chosen and other games were not. Someone choosing a console is left to guess.", "card_text": "Buyers cannot tell where a game will land until it has a date", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr (9 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/xbox-console-exclusives-are-returning-on-a-case-by-case-basis", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Matthew Ball's case is about fairness to owners. Someone who paid $500 for an Xbox gave up Sony's Spider-Man 2 and Ghost of Yotei to do it, he says, and should feel rewarded for the choice. He also says it has become difficult to explain why anyone should pick an Xbox.", "card_text": "Xbox says exclusives are what it owes people who bought the console", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Kotaku, Ethan Gach (11 June 2026)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/it-has-become-difficult-to-articulate-why-you-should-pick-an-xbox-2000705673", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Christopher Dring argues that selling PlayStation games on PC costs Sony little today, but that PC-based handhelds and consoles change that: PlayStation games running on those machines might weaken the appeal of Sony's own hardware. Reports of Sony's thinking say the same, and point to a next Xbox expected to work like a PC.", "card_text": "Sony's worry is a PC-like Xbox running its games", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "The Game Business, Christopher Dring (30 April 2026)", "link": "https://www.thegamebusiness.com/p/should-playstation-and-xbox-change", "source_slug": "the-game-business" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Rhys Elliott of Alinea Analytics reads the Physint decision as a sign of how console makers now choose what to fund. 'Margins are the name of the game now,' he says. A very expensive game that Sony would not own, and that would not stay exclusive, no longer clears that bar.", "card_text": "Platform owners now pay for profit, not prestige", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GameSpot, Darryn Bonthuys (11 September 2026)", "link": "https://finance.yahoo.com/media-advertising/articles/death-stranding-franchise-likely-barely-140429553.html", "source_slug": "gamespot" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The same Circana survey that ranks exclusives first also shows them mattering less: 41% is down 8 points in a year. Circana's Mat Piscatella adds that the reasons were close together, and that the most-played games on PlayStation and Xbox are ones sold everywhere, such as Fortnite, Roblox, Call of Duty and sports games.", "card_text": "Players care less about exclusives than they did a year ago", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Kotaku, Zack Zwiezen, on Circana (1 May 2026)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/exclusives-are-still-the-top-reason-people-play-games-on-consoles-but-theyre-becoming-less-important-2000692476", "source_slug": "circana" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Xbox has named two permanent exclusives. Halo: Campaign Evolved, Forza Horizon 6 and Fable are all still headed to PlayStation 5. And console exclusive does not mean Xbox only: Gears of War: E-Day is sold on Steam and Windows the same day. The wall keeps out PlayStation and Nintendo, not PC.", "card_text": "The wall has been rebuilt around very few games", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr (9 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/xbox-console-exclusives-are-returning-on-a-case-by-case-basis", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Sony has never said in public that its single-player games will stay off PC. The reporter who broke the story says Sony's plans are constantly shifting. And Rhys Elliott, whose estimates show the PC versions slowing, did not recommend quitting PC. He recommended releasing there sooner, six to twelve months after the console version.", "card_text": "Sony's policy is a report, and the analyst behind the numbers advised against it", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Alinea Analytics, Rhys Elliott (24 November 2025)", "link": "https://alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/the-top-selling-playstation-games", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Circana's US figures for October and November 2026, when the first hardware numbers covering E-Day's launch appear. Through August US Xbox hardware sales were down 33% from a year earlier, an all-time low, and E-Day's own sales went mostly to Steam. The figures will show whether a permanent exclusive moved any consoles at all.", "card_text": "Whether E-Day shows up in the hardware figures", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Circana, Mat Piscatella, via Video Games Chronicle (10 October 2026)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/us-console-hardware-market-at-its-most-precarious-position-since-the-80s-says-circana/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "23 February 2027, when Fable is due on PC, PlayStation 5 and Xbox on the same day. It is the first test of Xbox's promise to release already-announced games everywhere now that its policy has changed.", "card_text": "Whether Fable still ships on PlayStation", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr (9 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/xbox-console-exclusives-are-returning-on-a-case-by-case-basis", "source_slug": "game-developer" } ] }, { "slug": "mobile-has-shifted-from-downloads-to-spending", "name": "Mobile games are struggling to find new players", "stage": "Dominant", "category": "Money & business model", "horizon": "h1", "horizon_group": null, "horizon_line": "Paying to acquire players is hitting diminishing returns.", "markets": [ "CN", "Global", "IN", "US" ], "what_it_is": "Sensor Tower's figures show mobile game downloads falling from 57.6 billion in 2020 to 49.3 billion in 2024. Spending inside games peaked at $87.4 billion in 2021 and has stayed near $80 billion since. In the first half of 2026 both fell. Even the strongest genre, 4X strategy, turned down in mid-2026, according to Naavik's Max Abrahamsen. These figures count only Apple's and Google's stores, and Newzoo, which counts more widely, still expects mobile to grow in 2026.", "why_it_matters": "Mobile is the largest part of the games business, and it grew for years on rising downloads. That stopped in 2020. Advertising spending is rising while downloads fall, so each new player costs more to find.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "State of Mobile 2026: 9 Key Trends", "link": "https://www.deconstructoroffun.com/blog/2026/2/2/state-of-mobile-2026", "type": "Data", "format": "" }, { "source": "H1 2026: 4X Strategy's UA Reckoning", "link": "https://naavik.co/f2p-mobile/h1-2026-4x-strategys-ua-reckoning/", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "H1 2026 genre analysis: strategy stumbles, RPGs fall, and puzzle revenue ramps up", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/h1-2026-genre-analysis-strategy-stumbles-rpgs-fall-and-puzzle-revenue-ramps-up/", "type": "Data", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Oct 2026", "where_to_follow": "Sensor Tower State of Mobile (annual), Naavik, Deconstructor of Fun, PocketGamer.biz monthly charts, AppMagic", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "Mobile game downloads and spending inside games, worldwide, 2020 = 100", "series_note": "Downloads and spending rose together until 2020. Since then downloads have fallen back while spending has stayed near its 2021 peak. Later years use a restated series and are left off.", "series_type": "line-index-2020", "series_mark": "2020: First pandemic year", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ { "text": "Sensor Tower's figures", "href": "https://sensortower.com/blog/state-of-mobile-gaming-2025" }, " show mobile game downloads falling from 57.6 billion in 2020 to 49.3 billion in 2024. Spending inside games peaked at $87.4 billion in 2021 and has stayed near $80 billion since. In the first half of 2026 both fell. Even the strongest genre, 4X strategy, turned down in mid-2026, according to ", { "text": "Naavik's Max Abrahamsen", "href": "https://naavik.co/f2p-mobile/h1-2026-4x-strategys-ua-reckoning/" }, ". These figures count only Apple's and Google's stores, and Newzoo, which counts more widely, still expects mobile to grow in 2026." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Mobile game downloads worldwide in 2017, in billions, from Apple's App Store and Google Play. The count covers Apple's store only in China and leaves out other Android stores.", "card_text": "36.2", "year": "2017", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Mobile Gaming 2025", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sensor_tower__state_of_mobile_gaming_2025__en.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower", "series": "Downloads (billions)" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Mobile game downloads worldwide in 2018, in billions, from Apple's App Store and Google Play. The count covers Apple's store only in China and leaves out other Android stores.", "card_text": "39.3", "year": "2018", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Mobile Gaming 2025", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sensor_tower__state_of_mobile_gaming_2025__en.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower", "series": "Downloads (billions)" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Mobile game downloads worldwide in 2019, in billions, from Apple's App Store and Google Play. The count covers Apple's store only in China and leaves out other Android stores.", "card_text": "44.4", "year": "2019", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Mobile Gaming 2025", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sensor_tower__state_of_mobile_gaming_2025__en.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower", "series": "Downloads (billions)" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Mobile game downloads worldwide in 2020, in billions, from Apple's App Store and Google Play. The count covers Apple's store only in China and leaves out other Android stores.", "card_text": "57.6", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Mobile Gaming 2025", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sensor_tower__state_of_mobile_gaming_2025__en.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower", "series": "Downloads (billions)" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Mobile game downloads worldwide in 2021, in billions, from Apple's App Store and Google Play. The count covers Apple's store only in China and leaves out other Android stores.", "card_text": "56.7", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Mobile Gaming 2025", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sensor_tower__state_of_mobile_gaming_2025__en.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower", "series": "Downloads (billions)" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Mobile game downloads worldwide in 2022, in billions, from Apple's App Store and Google Play. The count covers Apple's store only in China and leaves out other Android stores.", "card_text": "56", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Mobile Gaming 2025", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sensor_tower__state_of_mobile_gaming_2025__en.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower", "series": "Downloads (billions)" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Mobile game downloads worldwide in 2023, in billions, from Apple's App Store and Google Play. The count covers Apple's store only in China and leaves out other Android stores.", "card_text": "52.7", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Mobile Gaming 2025", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sensor_tower__state_of_mobile_gaming_2025__en.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower", "series": "Downloads (billions)" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Mobile game downloads worldwide in 2024, in billions, from Apple's App Store and Google Play. The count covers Apple's store only in China and leaves out other Android stores.", "card_text": "49.3", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Mobile Gaming 2025", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sensor_tower__state_of_mobile_gaming_2025__en.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower", "series": "Downloads (billions)" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent inside mobile games worldwide in 2017, in billions of dollars, through Apple's App Store and Google Play. It leaves out advertising and payments made outside the two stores.", "card_text": "47.2", "year": "2017", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Mobile Gaming 2025", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sensor_tower__state_of_mobile_gaming_2025__en.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower", "series": "Spending in games ($ billions)" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent inside mobile games worldwide in 2018, in billions of dollars, through Apple's App Store and Google Play. It leaves out advertising and payments made outside the two stores.", "card_text": "54.1", "year": "2018", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Mobile Gaming 2025", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sensor_tower__state_of_mobile_gaming_2025__en.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower", "series": "Spending in games ($ billions)" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent inside mobile games worldwide in 2019, in billions of dollars, through Apple's App Store and Google Play. It leaves out advertising and payments made outside the two stores.", "card_text": "63.5", "year": "2019", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Mobile Gaming 2025", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sensor_tower__state_of_mobile_gaming_2025__en.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower", "series": "Spending in games ($ billions)" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent inside mobile games worldwide in 2020, in billions of dollars, through Apple's App Store and Google Play. It leaves out advertising and payments made outside the two stores.", "card_text": "79.5", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Mobile Gaming 2025", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sensor_tower__state_of_mobile_gaming_2025__en.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower", "series": "Spending in games ($ billions)" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent inside mobile games worldwide in 2021, in billions of dollars, through Apple's App Store and Google Play. It leaves out advertising and payments made outside the two stores.", "card_text": "87.4", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Mobile Gaming 2025", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sensor_tower__state_of_mobile_gaming_2025__en.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower", "series": "Spending in games ($ billions)" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent inside mobile games worldwide in 2022, in billions of dollars, through Apple's App Store and Google Play. It leaves out advertising and payments made outside the two stores.", "card_text": "79.2", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Mobile Gaming 2025", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sensor_tower__state_of_mobile_gaming_2025__en.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower", "series": "Spending in games ($ billions)" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent inside mobile games worldwide in 2023, in billions of dollars, through Apple's App Store and Google Play. It leaves out advertising and payments made outside the two stores.", "card_text": "78.6", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Mobile Gaming 2025", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sensor_tower__state_of_mobile_gaming_2025__en.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower", "series": "Spending in games ($ billions)" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What players spent inside mobile games worldwide in 2024, in billions of dollars, through Apple's App Store and Google Play. It leaves out advertising and payments made outside the two stores.", "card_text": "81.7", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Mobile Gaming 2025", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sensor_tower__state_of_mobile_gaming_2025__en.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower", "series": "Spending in games ($ billions)" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Downloads of mobile games jump from 44.4 billion in 2019 to 57.6 billion in 2020, and spending inside them from $63.5 billion to $79.5 billion. Downloads have not been as high since.", "card_text": "Mobile game downloads peak in the first pandemic year", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Mobile Gaming 2025 (March 2025), page 5", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sensor_tower__state_of_mobile_gaming_2025__en.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "From 26 April 2021 every iPhone app must ask permission before tracking a user across other apps. Without permission, the identifier that advertisers use to follow a user is blanked.", "card_text": "Apple makes apps ask before tracking users", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "Apple Developer News", "link": "https://developer.apple.com/news/?id=ecvrtzt2", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Spending inside mobile games reaches $87.4 billion, a level it has not returned to. Downloads slip to 56.7 billion.", "card_text": "Spending in mobile games peaks at $87.4 billion", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Mobile Gaming 2025 (March 2025), page 5", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sensor_tower__state_of_mobile_gaming_2025__en.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Spending falls year on year in both of the first two quarters of 2022, by 6% and 6.9%, the first such falls Sensor Tower has recorded. It blames inflation, the cost of living and Apple's tracking change.", "card_text": "Spending on mobile games falls for the first time", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, Jonathan Briskman (September 2022)", "link": "https://sensortower.com/blog/mobile-gaming-market-outlook-player-spending-forecast-to-fall-by-2-year-over", "source_slug": "sensor-tower" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Downloads fall 6%, to their lowest total since 2019. Spending grows 4%, its first rise after two years of falls.", "card_text": "Downloads hit their lowest since 2019 as spending recovers a little", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, Jonathan Briskman (January 2025)", "link": "https://sensortower.com/blog/2025-state-of-mobile-consumers-usd150-billion-spent-on-mobile-highlights", "source_slug": "sensor-tower" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Between the start of 2024 and early 2025, a crackdown on low-quality apps cuts the number of apps on Google Play by about 47%.", "card_text": "Google removes nearly half the apps in its store", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Gaming 2026 (February 2026), page 12", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/2026-02-26-sensor_tower__state_of_gaming_2026__en_wp.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Sensor Tower's report on 2025 has mobile game downloads down 7.2% at 50.41 billion and spending up 1.3% at $81.75 billion. The report restates earlier years, so its totals do not line up with the series in the chart above.", "card_text": "Downloads fall 7.2% and spending rises 1.3%", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GameDev Reports, Dmitriy Byshonkov, on Sensor Tower (30 January 2026)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/sensor-tower-the-state-of-the-mobile", "source_slug": "gamedev-reports" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Spending inside apps that are not games reaches $85.6 billion, passing games at $81.8 billion. Among the largest markets, only India and Pakistan still show growth in downloads.", "card_text": "Other apps take in more money than games for the first time", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Deconstructor of Fun, Jared Gibbons (2 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.deconstructoroffun.com/blog/2026/2/2/state-of-mobile-2026", "source_slug": "deconstructor-of-fun" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Spending in mobile games totals $40 billion in the first half, down 2.0% from a year earlier, and downloads fall 11.9% to 24 billion. Time spent playing is flat. Spending on advertising for games rises 8% to $7 billion.", "card_text": "The first half of 2026: downloads down 12%, spending down 2%", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GameDev Reports, Dmitriy Byshonkov, on Sensor Tower (17 August 2026)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/sensor-tower-the-gaming-market-in", "source_slug": "gamedev-reports" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "4X strategy games, the build-and-conquer kind such as Last War, had been growing in both downloads and spending. In the second quarter their downloads fall 12% and spending 10% from the quarter before. Last War's quarterly takings drop by about a third.", "card_text": "The strongest genre starts to slide", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Naavik, Max Abrahamsen (15 August 2026)", "link": "https://naavik.co/f2p-mobile/h1-2026-4x-strategys-ua-reckoning/", "source_slug": "naavik" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "AppLovin's annual platform ad spend rounds to about $20 billion in September 2026, up 60% on the year, according to chief executive Adam Foroughi. He puts the mobile casual audience at over a billion people a day and argues advertising has more room to grow than chatbots. The figure is the platform's throughput, not its revenue, and it is the company's own.", "card_text": "One mobile ad platform books about $20 billion of annual ad spend", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PocketGamer.biz (21 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/applovin-grows-60-yy-rounding-to-20bn-in-annual-platform-ad-spend/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Max Abrahamsen of Naavik points out that downloads fell 12% in the first half of 2026 even though spending on game advertising rose 8%. For 4X games, he estimates that about three quarters of the fall in revenue came from having fewer daily players, nearly all of it from failing to bring in new ones.", "card_text": "Advertising costs more and finds fewer players", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Naavik, Max Abrahamsen (15 August 2026)", "link": "https://naavik.co/f2p-mobile/h1-2026-4x-strategys-ua-reckoning/", "source_slug": "naavik" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Newzoo's 2026 market report says mobile spending increasingly comes from established long-running games rather than from new players. It puts the cost of acquiring one install up 30%, at $0.56.", "card_text": "The money now comes from old games", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "mobilegamer.biz, Vikki Blake, on Newzoo (16 September 2026)", "link": "https://mobilegamer.biz/data-digest-roblox-shares-jump-11-augusts-top-publishers-heartopia-clash-of-critters-newzoo-stats-more/", "source_slug": "mobilegamer-biz" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Jared Gibbons of Deconstructor of Fun writes that with downloads 'flat', in his word, and players' time already full, studios now compete on holding players and on what each one spends. 'The era of growth-at-all-costs is over,' he writes.", "card_text": "Competition moves from finding players to keeping them", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Deconstructor of Fun, Jared Gibbons (2 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.deconstructoroffun.com/blog/2026/2/2/state-of-mobile-2026", "source_slug": "deconstructor-of-fun" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Sensor Tower's own report says growth is being driven more by increased spending per payer, and calls live operations, the running events and offers inside a game, a key requirement for long-term success. The growth, in other words, comes from the players who already pay.", "card_text": "Players who pay are asked to pay more", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Mobile Gaming 2025 (March 2025), page 5", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sensor_tower__state_of_mobile_gaming_2025__en.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Sensor Tower counts only what goes through Apple's and Google's stores. It leaves out advertising, other Android stores, which dominate in China, and payments made on a game's own website. Newzoo, which counts more widely, expects mobile game revenue to grow 6.8% in 2026, to $121.1 billion, more than half of all spending on games. Nobody publishes a worldwide total for the payments that bypass the stores.", "card_text": "A wider count says mobile is still growing", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "mobilegamer.biz, Vikki Blake, on Newzoo (16 September 2026)", "link": "https://mobilegamer.biz/data-digest-roblox-shares-jump-11-augusts-top-publishers-heartopia-clash-of-critters-newzoo-stats-more/", "source_slug": "mobilegamer-biz" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Sensor Tower put players' 2023 spending in mobile games at $107.3 billion in February 2024. Its later reports count only Apple's App Store and Google Play, and give $76.7 billion and then $78.6 billion for the same year. The chart uses one report's series for that reason, and any line drawn across several years is one edition's view.", "card_text": "Sensor Tower's own figures change between reports", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, Donny Kristianto (February 2024)", "link": "https://sensortower.com/blog/state-of-mobile-gaming-2024", "source_slug": "sensor-tower" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Much of the fall is in the cheapest kind of game. 20 billion of 2024's downloads were hypercasual games, the tiny free kind paid for by ads, and Google removed nearly half the apps in its store over the same period. The spending comes mostly from a different kind of game.", "card_text": "Fewer junk downloads is not the same as fewer players", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Mobile Gaming 2025 (March 2025), page 5", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sensor_tower__state_of_mobile_gaming_2025__en.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "2020 was the first pandemic year, when downloads jumped from 44.4 billion to 57.6 billion. Measured from 2019 instead, downloads in 2024 were about 11% higher and spending about 29% higher, by our arithmetic on Sensor Tower's figures. On that reading, much of the fall since 2020 is the pandemic jump unwinding, not a drop below the old level.", "card_text": "The starting point is a pandemic peak", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Our calculation from Sensor Tower's figures", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sensor_tower__state_of_mobile_gaming_2025__en.pdf", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "January 2027, when Sensor Tower usually publishes its yearly report. After a first half down 2%, 2026 could bring the first yearly fall in spending since 2023.", "card_text": "Sensor Tower's figures for 2026", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, State of Mobile 2026 (January 2026)", "link": "https://sensortower.com/blog/state-of-mobile-2026", "source_slug": "sensor-tower" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Early 2027, when the US Supreme Court could hear Apple's appeal in its case against Epic Games. The outcome decides whether games in the US can keep sending players to pay on their own websites free of Apple's fee, money that store figures like these do not count.", "card_text": "The Supreme Court and payments outside the app stores", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "9to5Mac, Marcus Mendes (14 September 2026)", "link": "https://9to5mac.com/2026/09/14/apple-files-supreme-court-brief-challenging-contempt-ruling-in-epic-case/", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "creators-are-how-players-find-games", "name": "Steam's glut is making discovery the hard part", "stage": "Dominant", "category": "Platform & distribution", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "makes-room", "horizon_line": "Abundance shifts power from making games to getting them found.", "markets": [ "Global" ], "what_it_is": "Steam released about 20,700 games in 2025, against about 7,000 in 2018, and almost half of 2025's releases drew fewer than ten user reviews. Developers say social media is their main way to find players, and they rate streamers above paid advertising. Because Steam releases far more games each year than it used to, even good games launch to much smaller crowds. That has made free demos important. How many people play a demo is now the best early sign of how the full game will launch.", "why_it_matters": "Making a game has become easier, and Steam, the main PC games store, now releases so many a year that the hard part is being noticed. A streamer playing a game is one way through, and Steam's own store is another.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "GDC: The State of the Game Industry 2026", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/gdc-the-state-of-the-game-industry-fcf", "type": "Data", "format": "" }, { "source": "Does your Steam demo CCU 'predict' your game's success?", "link": "https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/does-your-steam-demo-ccu-predict", "type": "Data", "format": "" }, { "source": "How many games were released in 2025?", "link": "https://howtomarketagame.com/2026/01/08/how-many-games-were-released-in-2025/", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Oct 2026", "where_to_follow": "GameDiscoverCo (Simon Carless), Naavik, GDC State of the Game Industry (annual), Gamalytic, SteamDB", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "Games released on Steam, by year", "series_note": "Steam released about 7,000 games in 2018 and 20,676 in 2025, and 2026 had nearly matched that by mid-September. The number of games that get noticed has barely moved.", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "series_format": "{n} games", "claims": [ { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Games released on Steam in 2018, by Gamalytic's count, the first full year of Steam Direct.", "card_text": "7,062", "year": "2018", "market": "", "source": "Gamalytic, Steam games by year (read 16 September 2026)", "link": "https://gamalytic.com/years", "source_slug": "gamalytic" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Games released on Steam in 2019, the only year in the series lower than the one before.", "card_text": "6,960", "year": "2019", "market": "", "source": "Gamalytic, Steam games by year (read 16 September 2026)", "link": "https://gamalytic.com/years", "source_slug": "gamalytic" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Games released on Steam in 2020, the year the first Next Fest ran in place of the canceled trade shows.", "card_text": "8,493", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "Gamalytic, Steam games by year (read 16 September 2026)", "link": "https://gamalytic.com/years", "source_slug": "gamalytic" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Games released on Steam in 2021, the first year past 10,000.", "card_text": "10,115", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "Gamalytic, Steam games by year (read 16 September 2026)", "link": "https://gamalytic.com/years", "source_slug": "gamalytic" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Games released on Steam in 2022.", "card_text": "11,033", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "Gamalytic, Steam games by year (read 16 September 2026)", "link": "https://gamalytic.com/years", "source_slug": "gamalytic" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Games released on Steam in 2023.", "card_text": "12,913", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Gamalytic, Steam games by year (read 16 September 2026)", "link": "https://gamalytic.com/years", "source_slug": "gamalytic" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Games released on Steam in 2024, up by more than a third in a year, the biggest jump in the series.", "card_text": "17,416", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Gamalytic, Steam games by year (read 16 September 2026)", "link": "https://gamalytic.com/years", "source_slug": "gamalytic" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Games released on Steam in 2025, the most in any year.", "card_text": "20,676", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Gamalytic, Steam games by year (read 16 September 2026)", "link": "https://gamalytic.com/years", "source_slug": "gamalytic" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Games released on Steam in 2026 through 16 September, already within a few hundred of 2025's whole year.", "card_text": "19,934", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Gamalytic, Steam games by year (read 16 September 2026)", "link": "https://gamalytic.com/years", "source_slug": "gamalytic", "partial": true }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Steam replaces Greenlight, where players voted on which games got in, with Steam Direct, which asks only for paperwork and a $100 fee per game. Steam had been releasing a few thousand games a year, and the gate that kept the number there is gone.", "card_text": "Steam Direct replaces Greenlight", "year": "2017", "market": "", "source": "MCV/Develop, Steam Direct launches, replacing Greenlight submission programme (14 June 2017)", "link": "https://mcvuk.com/development-news/steam-direct-launches-replacing-greenlight-submission-programme/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Valve, which runs Steam, reports on Steam Next Fest, an event of free demos that started in 2020 when E3 did not take place. Across the first five fests, the typical game gained about 15 times as many daily wishlist adds (players saving a game to buy later) as usual. Wishlists added during the fest also turned into sales at five times the rate of those added in the two weeks before.", "card_text": "Valve puts numbers on Next Fest", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "Valve, Steamworks Development, Steam Next Fest continues to boost engagement and sales for most games in 2021 (30 November 2021)", "link": "https://store.steampowered.com/news/group/4145017/view/3142945680156500050", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Video Game Insights, which sells Steam estimates, finds that the ten biggest games released on Steam in 2023 took 61% of the revenue of all games released that year, up from 43% in 2020. Baldur's Gate 3 alone took 21%. It counts sales of the games, not spending inside them.", "card_text": "The ten biggest new releases take 61% of new games' revenue", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower VGI, Global PC Games Market Report 2024 (January 2024)", "link": "https://app.sensortower.com/vgi/assets/reports/VGI_Global_PC_Games_Market_Report_2024.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower-vgi" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "SteamDB counts 18,945 releases with a few days left in the year, about 5,600 more than 2023 and the biggest jump it has recorded. Yet only 3,964 of them reached the popularity level Valve requires for community features, barely more than the 3,874 in 2023.", "card_text": "A record year, and most of it unnoticed", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "PC Gamer, Jonathan Bolding, on SteamDB (28 December 2024)", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/games/nearly-19-000-games-released-on-steam-in-2024/", "source_slug": "pc-gamer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "SteamDB counts more than 19,000 releases so far. Almost half get fewer than ten user reviews: about 2,200 get none, and another 7,100 get nine or fewer. Only about 1,200 pass 500 reviews.", "card_text": "Half of 2025's releases draw under ten reviews", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "80.lv, Arti Sergeev, on SteamDB's data (15 December 2025)", "link": "https://80.lv/articles/steam-earned-usd16b-in-2025-but-nearly-half-of-19-000-games-got-under-10-reviews", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Chris Zukowski compares four trackers' totals for 2025: SteamDB 20,008, VG Insights 20,282, Gamalytic 20,353, and GameDiscoverCo 20,558. They differ mainly in how they count games Valve removed. Growth of about 11% is the third-smallest yearly increase since Steam Direct began.", "card_text": "Four trackers, four counts, one record", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "How To Market A Game, Chris Zukowski, How many games were released in 2025? (8 January 2026)", "link": "https://howtomarketagame.com/2026/01/08/how-many-games-were-released-in-2025/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "GDC's annual survey of more than 2,300 game industry workers asks how developers find new players. Social media leads at 65%, followed by streamers at 39%, paid advertising at 31%, events at 30%, community platforms at 28%, and traditional press and bloggers at 25%.", "card_text": "Streamers rank above paid advertising", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GameDev Reports, on GDC State of the Game Industry 2026 (16 February 2026)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/gdc-the-state-of-the-game-industry-fcf", "source_slug": "gamedev-reports" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "GameDiscoverCo's five-year outlook: a game that would have launched to 500 people playing at once on Steam eight years ago now launches to 100 or fewer. The games are not worse. There are just many more good ones competing for attention.", "card_text": "A 500-player launch is now a 100-player launch", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GameDiscoverCo, Simon Carless, 14 trends for the next 5 years of PC/console games (1 May 2026)", "link": "https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/14-trends-for-the-next-5-years-of", "source_slug": "gamediscoverco" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "June's Steam Next Fest includes a record 4,382 demos, 66% more than a year earlier's 2,645. With more competition, each game gets less attention. The top tenth of games gained about 121 followers each, down from 163 in June 2025, and the top 1% fell from 1,759 to 1,330.", "card_text": "A record Next Fest, and each demo gets less", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GameDiscoverCo, Simon Carless, Who 'won' June 2026's Steam Next Fest? (23 June 2026)", "link": "https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/who-won-june-2026s-steam-next-fest", "source_slug": "gamediscoverco" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "GameDiscoverCo studies 2,569 Steam games launched between January 2024 and August 2026 whose demos had more than 50 players at once. At launch, the typical game peaked at about three times its demo's peak. The best quarter averaged about six times, the worst just over one. Of 2026's 100 top-earning games, 58 had a demo first.", "card_text": "The demo forecasts the launch", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GameDiscoverCo, Simon Carless, Does your Steam demo CCU 'predict' your game's success? (8 September 2026)", "link": "https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/does-your-steam-demo-ccu-predict", "source_slug": "gamediscoverco" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Valve announces in late September 2026 that Steam's Discounts and Events section will stop using curated, calendar-based placements in early 2027 and become personalized for each customer. Valve says the change lets more discounted games appear on the homepage instead of competing for a small fixed number of slots, and that testing showed ten times as many games reaching customers in a day in that section. Universal Daily Deals end with it.", "card_text": "Valve moves Steam's discounts off a calendar and onto an algorithm", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Edge, quoting Valve's announcement (29 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesradar.com/platforms/pc-gaming/another-steam-page-is-being-turned-into-an-algorithm-as-valve-aims-to-show-10x-more-games-to-customers/", "source_slug": "edge" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Jason Gastrow, the YouTuber known as videogamedunkey, launched a publisher called Bigmode, saying that players who care about games come to his channel 'to find out what's actually worth playing.' Bigmode offers the games it picks funding, publicity, testing and translation.", "card_text": "A YouTuber who tells players what to buy starts publishing games", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr (22 September 2022)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/youtuber-dunkey-launches-indie-game-publisher-bigmode", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Comparing viewing and sales across 2025 releases, GameDiscoverCo found that games sold about one copy for every 41 hours people spent watching them streamed after launch. Wishlists also jumped when big streamers played a game's open beta, as happened with Mecha Break. GameDiscoverCo notes this shows the two move together, not that streams cause sales.", "card_text": "Forty-one hours watched, one copy sold", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GameDiscoverCo, Simon Carless, How does streamer popularity & Steam wishlists relate? (16 September 2025)", "link": "https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/how-does-streamer-popularity-and", "source_slug": "gamediscoverco" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Most games earn almost nothing. Gamalytic puts the typical 2025 Steam game's earnings at $249, up from $222 in 2024. Two-thirds earned under $1,000, and 40% did not earn back Steam's $100 fee. The year's releases earned $4.7 billion in total, down from $7.6 billion, even though more games came out than ever.", "card_text": "The typical 2025 release made $249", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "80.lv, Theodore McKenzie, on Gamalytic (22 October 2025)", "link": "https://80.lv/articles/analysts-report-drop-in-game-revenue-on-steam-despite-growing-number-of-releases", "source_slug": "gamalytic" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "There is no longer a mainstream audience to launch a game into. Each player sees their own mix of recommendations and creators, so a game has to stand out enough to jump from one group to another. A spot on Northernlion's YouTube playlist, or a mention on a novelist's podcast, is the kind of jump that now decides a game's fate.", "card_text": "A game has to break out of its bubble", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GameDiscoverCo, Simon Carless, The only way to discovery success? Escape your filter bubble! (17 February 2026)", "link": "https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/the-only-way-to-discovery-success", "source_slug": "gamediscoverco" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Release counts depend on who is counting. Four trackers put 2025 anywhere from 20,008 to 20,558 games, and Gamalytic's own site, the source of the chart above, now says 20,676. For 2024, SteamDB counted 18,945 in late December and Gamalytic 17,416. Every count shows the same upward trend, but the exact numbers differ.", "card_text": "The trackers disagree by hundreds", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "How To Market A Game, Chris Zukowski, How many games were released in 2025? (8 January 2026)", "link": "https://howtomarketagame.com/2026/01/08/how-many-games-were-released-in-2025/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Valve's own numbers say more games than ever are finding buyers. In 2025, 5,863 games earned more than $100,000 on Steam, nearly double 2020. About 1,700 of those, 8.5% of the year's releases, came out that year, up from 7% in 2024. Sales from Steam's Daily Deals grew 274%, and 69% of the 1,500 games featured there had never been featured before. Steam's own store is still a way players find games, and it is growing.", "card_text": "Steam says more games are breaking through, not fewer", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GameDiscoverCo, Simon Carless, What Steam's 2026 biz update tells us about the ecosystem (13 March 2026)", "link": "https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/what-steams-2026-biz-update-tells", "source_slug": "gamediscoverco" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Some hits need streamers and some do not. Manor Lords doubled its Steam sales from 1.7 million to 3.3 million copies while it had little viewing on Twitch. Sales of Path of Exile 2 rise with its updates, not with how much it is watched. GameDiscoverCo's view is that streamers drive some successes and clearly not others.", "card_text": "Manor Lords doubled its sales with no stream behind it", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GameDiscoverCo, Simon Carless, What Twitch data adds to our view of game discovery (16 June 2026)", "link": "https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/what-twitch-data-adds-to-our-view", "source_slug": "gamediscoverco" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "January 2027, when the trackers publish their counts for the year. As of 16 September, Gamalytic had counted 19,934 releases in 2026, against 20,676 for all of 2025. Unless the rest of the year is unusually quiet, 2026 will set a new record.", "card_text": "Whether 2026 sets a new record", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Gamalytic, Steam games by year (read 16 September 2026)", "link": "https://gamalytic.com/years", "source_slug": "gamalytic" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "GDC's next annual survey, due early in 2027. It will show whether streamers have closed the gap with social media as a way to find players, and whether paid advertising has fallen further behind.", "card_text": "Whether streamers gain on social media in the next GDC survey", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "GDC State of the Game Industry", "link": "https://gdconf.com/article/gdc-2026-state-of-the-game-industry-reveals-impact-of-layoffs-generative-ai-and-more/", "source_slug": "gdc-state-of-the-game-industry" } ] }, { "slug": "new-games-fight-for-playtime", "name": "Old games take most of players' time", "stage": "Perennial", "category": "Platform & distribution", "horizon": "perennial", "horizon_group": null, "horizon_line": "The structural fact the current system fights and the next one designs around.", "markets": [ "Global", "US" ], "what_it_is": "About one hour in seven on Steam goes to a game released that year. The share was 9%, 15% and 14% in the last three years. Playtime is also concentrated: fewer than a hundred games take 80% of it on each platform. That grip loosened slightly in 2025, but the time leaving the biggest games is not going to new ones. Of everything Steam earned in the first eight months of 2026, the hundred best-selling new games made up about a sixth.", "why_it_matters": "Most time spent playing goes to games that have been out for years. A new game competes with everything already installed, including older games on discount. That is why a publisher can report record back-catalog earnings in the same quarter a new release disappoints.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Newzoo: PC and Console Market in 2026", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/newzoo-pc-and-console-market-in-2026", "type": "Data", "format": "" }, { "source": "Why older games rule – and new games drool – in Discoveryland", "link": "https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/why-older-games-rule-and-new-games", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "Valve has reportedly made £11bn from Steam already in 2026, and biggest earning new arrival is Forza Horizon 6", "link": "https://www.eurogamer.net/forza-horizon-6-biggest-steam-new-release-11-billion-gbp", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "Newzoo PC and Console Gaming Report (annual), GameDiscoverCo, Circana Player Engagement Tracker, Valve's Steam Replay", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "Share of Steam playtime by age of game, by year", "series_note": "About one hour in seven on Steam goes to a game released that year. The rest goes to older games.", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "claims": [ { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Share of all playtime on Steam in 2023 that went to games released that year, from Valve's Steam Replay. Valve's count leaves out offline play.", "card_text": "9%", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Valve, Steam Replay (the yearly figure for all Steam users, as the press reported it each December)", "link": "https://gamerant.com/steam-year-in-review-time-spent-new-games-2024/", "source_slug": "", "series": "Released that year" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Share of all playtime on Steam in 2024 that went to games released that year, from Valve's Steam Replay. Valve's count leaves out offline play.", "card_text": "15%", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Valve, Steam Replay (the yearly figure for all Steam users, as the press reported it each December)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/steam-users-spent-only-15-of-their", "source_slug": "", "series": "Released that year" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Share of all playtime on Steam in 2025 that went to games released that year, from Valve's Steam Replay. Valve's count leaves out offline play.", "card_text": "14%", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Valve, Steam Replay (the yearly figure for all Steam users, as the press reported it each December)", "link": "https://www.gamingonlinux.com/2025/12/steam-replay-is-live-and-notes-only-14-of-playtime-spent-by-all-steam-users-was-for-2025-releases/", "source_slug": "", "series": "Released that year" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Share of all playtime on Steam in 2023 that went to games one to seven years old, from Valve's Steam Replay. Valve's count leaves out offline play.", "card_text": "52%", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Valve, Steam Replay (the yearly figure for all Steam users, as the press reported it each December)", "link": "https://gamerant.com/steam-year-in-review-time-spent-new-games-2024/", "source_slug": "", "series": "One to seven years old" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Share of all playtime on Steam in 2024 that went to games one to seven years old, from Valve's Steam Replay. Valve's count leaves out offline play.", "card_text": "47%", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Valve, Steam Replay (the yearly figure for all Steam users, as the press reported it each December)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/steam-users-spent-only-15-of-their", "source_slug": "", "series": "One to seven years old" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Share of all playtime on Steam in 2025 that went to games one to seven years old, from Valve's Steam Replay. Valve's count leaves out offline play.", "card_text": "44%", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Valve, Steam Replay (the yearly figure for all Steam users, as the press reported it each December)", "link": "https://www.gamingonlinux.com/2025/12/steam-replay-is-live-and-notes-only-14-of-playtime-spent-by-all-steam-users-was-for-2025-releases/", "source_slug": "", "series": "One to seven years old" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Share of all playtime on Steam in 2023 that went to games eight years old or more, from Valve's Steam Replay. Valve's count leaves out offline play.", "card_text": "38%", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Valve, Steam Replay (the yearly figure for all Steam users, as the press reported it each December)", "link": "https://gamerant.com/steam-year-in-review-time-spent-new-games-2024/", "source_slug": "", "series": "Eight years or older" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Share of all playtime on Steam in 2024 that went to games eight years old or more, from Valve's Steam Replay. Valve's count leaves out offline play.", "card_text": "37%", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Valve, Steam Replay (the yearly figure for all Steam users, as the press reported it each December)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/steam-users-spent-only-15-of-their", "source_slug": "", "series": "Eight years or older" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Share of all playtime on Steam in 2025 that went to games eight years old or more, from Valve's Steam Replay. Valve's count leaves out offline play.", "card_text": "40%", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Valve, Steam Replay (the yearly figure for all Steam users, as the press reported it each December)", "link": "https://www.gamingonlinux.com/2025/12/steam-replay-is-live-and-notes-only-14-of-playtime-spent-by-all-steam-users-was-for-2025-releases/", "source_slug": "", "series": "Eight years or older" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Newzoo's playtime data, as read by GameDiscoverCo: games six years old or more took 61% of playtime in 2023, up from 45% in 2021. Five giants (Fortnite, Roblox, League of Legends, Minecraft, and GTA V) took 27% on their own. Games less than two years old took 23%, and about 60% of that went to yearly series such as sports games. The five biggest brand-new games of the year, including Diablo IV, Hogwarts Legacy, and Baldur's Gate 3, added up to 3.5%.", "card_text": "Older games take 61% of playtime", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "GameDiscoverCo, Simon Carless, Why older games rule, and new games drool, in Discoveryland (3 April 2024)", "link": "https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/why-older-games-rule-and-new-games", "source_slug": "gamediscoverco" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "On Steam, games released in 2023 took 9% of the year's playtime, the lowest in the four years Valve has published the figure. Games one to seven years old took 52%, and games eight years old or more took 38%.", "card_text": "New releases fall to 9% of Steam playtime", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Game Rant, Sarah Fields, on Steam Replay (20 December 2024)", "link": "https://gamerant.com/steam-year-in-review-time-spent-new-games-2024/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Games released in 2024 took 15% of Steam playtime, a recovery that GameDev Reports credits to hits such as Palworld, Helldivers II, and Black Myth: Wukong. It came in a record year for new Steam releases, so far more games shared that 15%.", "card_text": "New releases recover to 15%", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "GameDev Reports, on Steam Replay (27 December 2024)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/steam-users-spent-only-15-of-their", "source_slug": "gamedev-reports" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "In January, the ten biggest live-service games, the kind updated for years and often free to play, took more than 40% of all time played on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series consoles in the US. More than 70% of active players on those consoles played at least one. Circana's Mat Piscatella said they take up a huge share of the time available, and free is hard to beat when the game is good.", "card_text": "Ten live-service games take 40% of US console time", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "PlayStation Universe, Michael Harradence, on Mat Piscatella's Circana figures (26 February 2025)", "link": "https://www.psu.com/news/live-service-games-made-up-over-40-of-total-play-time-on-ps5-xbox-series-x-s-in-us-last-month/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Games released in 2025 took 14% of Steam playtime. Games one to seven years old took 44%, and games eight years old or more took 40%, their highest share in three years.", "card_text": "New releases hold at 14%", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GamingOnLinux, Liam Squires-Hand, on Steam Replay (17 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamingonlinux.com/2025/12/steam-replay-is-live-and-notes-only-14-of-playtime-spent-by-all-steam-users-was-for-2025-releases/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Newzoo's yearly PC and console report: new releases took 12 to 13% of total playtime in each of the past three years. Xbox was highest at 18%, helped by new games arriving on the Game Pass subscription. Just 79 games account for 80% of playtime on PC, 74 on PlayStation, and 91 on Xbox.", "card_text": "New games hold 12 to 13% across PC and console", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GameDev Reports, on Newzoo's PC and console report (6 April 2026)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/newzoo-pc-and-console-market-in-2026", "source_slug": "gamedev-reports" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The same report on price: 76 to 79% of console revenue came from games priced above $50, while PC revenue split about evenly between games under $30, from $30 to $50, and above $50. PC revenue from games under $30 has grown 40% since 2022.", "card_text": "Console money is in $50 games, PC money is spread", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GameDev Reports, on Newzoo's PC and console report (6 April 2026)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/newzoo-pc-and-console-market-in-2026", "source_slug": "gamedev-reports" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Alinea Analytics on the first half of 2026: games on Steam made a record $11.1 billion, up 14.5% from a year earlier. Games released that year made 21% of it, down from 27% at the same point in 2025 and 29% in 2024. Older games made the other 79%. Alinea credits publishers getting better at selling their older games through discounts, bundles, and timed sales.", "card_text": "Older games make 79% of Steam revenue", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GameDev Reports, on Alinea Analytics' first-half report (16 July 2026)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/alinea-analytics-steam-reached-highest", "source_slug": "gamedev-reports" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Alinea Analytics estimates Steam took $15 billion in the first eight months of 2026. The six highest-grossing new releases made about $1 billion of that, or 6.6%, led by Forza Horizon 6 at $210.5 million, Crimson Desert at $203.3 million, and Resident Evil Requiem at $200.9 million. The top 100 new releases together made $2.4 billion, or 15.9%.", "card_text": "The year's top 100 new games make 16% of Steam's revenue", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Eurogamer, Sherif Saed, on Alinea Analytics (7 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.eurogamer.net/forza-horizon-6-biggest-steam-new-release-11-billion-gbp", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The time that does go to new games mostly goes to the next entry in a series players already know. In Newzoo's 2023 data, yearly franchises took about 60% of the playtime for games under two years old, and the five biggest brand-new games together took 3.5% of all playtime. A game with an unfamiliar name competes for what is left.", "card_text": "Most new-game time goes to sequels", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "GameDiscoverCo, Simon Carless, Why older games rule, and new games drool, in Discoveryland (3 April 2024)", "link": "https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/why-older-games-rule-and-new-games", "source_slug": "gamediscoverco" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Players do not have more time to give. Mat Piscatella notes that total spending, total players, and total hours in the US all peaked in 2021, while new games keep arriving at the same pace. More games are competing for the same hours, and most of those hours are already spoken for.", "card_text": "More games, the same number of hours", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "PlayStation Universe, Michael Harradence, on Mat Piscatella's Circana figures (26 February 2025)", "link": "https://www.psu.com/news/live-service-games-made-up-over-40-of-total-play-time-on-ps5-xbox-series-x-s-in-us-last-month/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Money follows time. By Alinea's estimate, the 100 best-selling new games of 2026 made 15.9% of Steam's revenue in the first eight months. The other 84% went to older games, their add-ons, and thousands of smaller new releases. Of the top six new games, only two were not sequels.", "card_text": "New games earn about what they are played", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Eurogamer, Sherif Saed, on Alinea Analytics (7 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.eurogamer.net/forza-horizon-6-biggest-steam-new-release-11-billion-gbp", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "A new game also competes on price with older games that keep getting cheaper. Alinea says publishers have gotten better at selling their older games through discounts, bundles, and timed sales, and the share of Steam revenue going to new releases has fallen from 29% to 21% in two years. Newzoo's price data points the same way: on PC, where sales are constant, revenue from games under $30 has grown 40% since 2022. On consoles, most of the money still comes from games above $50.", "card_text": "A new game competes with cheaper old ones", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GameDev Reports, on Alinea Analytics' first-half report (16 July 2026)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/alinea-analytics-steam-reached-highest", "source_slug": "gamedev-reports" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The biggest games loosened their grip in 2025. Newzoo found playtime less concentrated on all three platforms, and says all of the growth in PC playtime since 2022 has come from games outside the top 20. Time is moving away from the giants, even if it is not moving to brand-new games.", "card_text": "Playtime spread out in 2025", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GameDev Reports, on Newzoo's PC and console report (6 April 2026)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/newzoo-pc-and-console-market-in-2026", "source_slug": "gamedev-reports" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "A steady share of a growing total is still growth. Valve says Steam's peak users are roughly double what they were five years ago, and 5,863 games earned more than $100,000 on Steam in 2025, nearly double the number in 2020. If new games hold one hour in seven while total hours rise, new games are being played more, not less.", "card_text": "One hour in seven of a much bigger total", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GameDiscoverCo, Simon Carless, What Steam's 2026 biz update tells us about the ecosystem (13 March 2026)", "link": "https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/what-steams-2026-biz-update-tells", "source_slug": "gamediscoverco" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Valve's first year of figures does not fit the others. As reported, Steam Replay for 2022 put 17% of playtime in new releases, 19% in games one to seven years old, and 64% in games eight years old or more, a split unlike the three years since. That is why the chart starts in 2023. Four years is a short record either way.", "card_text": "The 2022 numbers look nothing like the rest", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "Game Rant, Sarah Fields, on Steam Replay (20 December 2024)", "link": "https://gamerant.com/steam-year-in-review-time-spent-new-games-2024/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Steam Replay for 2026, due in December. Forza Horizon 6, Crimson Desert and Resident Evil Requiem have all sold well, so new releases could pass 2024's 15%.", "card_text": "Whether 2026 releases pass 15%", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Valve, Steam Replay (the yearly figure for all Steam users, as the press reported it each December)", "link": "https://store.steampowered.com/replay", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Newzoo's next PC and console report, due in spring 2027. It will show whether new releases held at 12 to 13% of playtime for a fourth year, and whether playtime kept spreading beyond the top 20 games.", "card_text": "Whether new games stay at 12 to 13%", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Newzoo", "link": "https://newzoo.com/", "source_slug": "newzoo" } ] }, { "slug": "the-rise-of-friendslop", "name": "Cheap co-op games are topping Steam's charts", "stage": "Emerging", "category": "Culture & audience", "horizon": "h3", "horizon_group": null, "horizon_line": "Small teams, low prices, social play, built to be watched. The clearest prototype of what comes next.", "markets": [ "Global", "JP" ], "what_it_is": "R.E.P.O. and PEAK, at $7.99 each, were among Steam's best-selling new games of 2025. PEAK was built mostly in a month by seven people for under $200,000. The wave grew in 2026, and Chris Zukowski's count finds each new record crowd larger than the last. Players leave fast: AppMagic finds about 3% still playing after a month, and GameDiscoverCo's Simon Carless compares hits to lightning strikes. Copies are not revenue, and at these prices a chart-topper can sit well down the earnings table.", "why_it_matters": "Friendslop is players' slang for cheap, chaotic co-op games made to play with friends and watch on streams. They sell for $5 to $10, are made by small teams, and since 2025 have been among the best sellers on Steam, the main PC games store.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "GameDiscoverCo: Most successful new releases on PC and Consoles in 2025", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/gamediscoverco-most-successful-new", "type": "Data", "format": "" }, { "source": "What developers can learn from indie social co-op", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/design/what-developers-can-learn-from-the-indie-social-co-op-games-topping-the-steam-charts", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "Calling games like Peak and REPO ‘friendslop’ devalues the developer, investor says", "link": "https://www.gamesradar.com/games/co-op/calling-steam-games-like-peak-and-repo-friendslop-devalues-the-skill-of-the-developer-industry-investor-says-so-lets-collectively-kill-the-term-before-its-too-late/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "GameDiscoverCo's annual PC and console sales roundups, Game Developer's design desk, PC Gamer, AppMagic retention studies", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "People playing friendslop games on Steam at once, thousands, at each record up to July 2026", "series_note": "Each record crowd has been bigger than the last: 197,000 in 2023, 281,000 in 2025 and 350,000 in 2026. These are three peaks, not yearly totals, and the numbers fall away between them. The count was made in July 2026, before How to Fish drew 374,000 players on its own in August.", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "R.E.P.O. and PEAK, at $7.99 each, were among Steam's best-selling new games of 2025. PEAK was built mostly in a month by seven people for under $200,000. The wave grew in 2026, and ", { "text": "Chris Zukowski's count", "href": "https://howtomarketagame.com/2026/07/30/is-friendslop-saturated/" }, " finds each new record crowd larger than the last. Players leave fast: AppMagic finds about 3% still playing after a month, and ", { "text": "GameDiscoverCo's Simon Carless", "href": "https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/look-we-have-to-talk-about-meccha" }, " compares hits to lightning strikes. Copies are not revenue, and at these prices a chart-topper can sit well down the earnings table." ], "series_format": "{n} thousand players at once", "claims": [ { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "People playing friendslop games on Steam at the same moment, at the record set in December 2023 when Lethal Company took off. The count covers 16 games chosen by Chris Zukowski.", "card_text": "197", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "How To Market A Game, Chris Zukowski (30 July 2026)", "link": "https://howtomarketagame.com/2026/07/30/is-friendslop-saturated/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The next record, set in March 2025 during the surge of R.E.P.O. Zukowski gives no figure for 2024, when the total dipped and spiked between records.", "card_text": "281", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "How To Market A Game, Chris Zukowski (30 July 2026)", "link": "https://howtomarketagame.com/2026/07/30/is-friendslop-saturated/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The record so far in 2026, set in June at the launch of Meccha Chameleon. A write-up of the same post by Game World Observer gives 366,000.", "card_text": "350", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "How To Market A Game, Chris Zukowski (30 July 2026)", "link": "https://howtomarketagame.com/2026/07/30/is-friendslop-saturated/", "source_slug": "", "partial": true }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Lethal Company, a co-op horror game by a single developer, takes off on Steam. Working from its review count, Ryan Rigney estimates it has sold more than 10 million copies and earned more than $100 million within three months.", "card_text": "A horror game made by one person sells an estimated 10 million copies", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Push To Talk, Ryan K. Rigney (19 January 2024)", "link": "https://www.pushtotalk.gg/p/how-lethal-company-sold-10-million-copies", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "VG Insights finds that games with cooperative play, where players work together, made up 5% of the games released on Steam in the first part of 2024 and 46% of the copies sold. The number of co-op games released in a year went from 388 in 2019 to 799 in 2023.", "card_text": "Co-op games are 5% of releases and 46% of copies sold", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "GameDev Reports, Dmitriy Byshonkov, on VG Insights (4 July 2024)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/vg-insights-cooperative-games-on", "source_slug": "gamedev-reports" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Three developers from Aggro Crab and four from Landfall rent an apartment in Seoul for a month in February and build most of PEAK, a co-op climbing game, there. The whole project costs less than $200,000. Aggro Crab had turned to a small project to avoid burnout and the need for outside funding.", "card_text": "Seven developers build PEAK in a month, for under $200,000", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr (26 June 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/production/how-co-op-climbing-hit-peak-achieved-2-million-sales-for-less-than-200-000-", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A user on X posts pictures of Lethal Company, R.E.P.O. and Content Warning with the line 'I call this genre of game Friendslop'. The name sticks to cheap, chaotic co-op games meant to be played with friends and watched on streams.", "card_text": "Someone coins 'friendslop' as a joke", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Aftermath, Jay Castello (17 July 2025)", "link": "https://aftermath.site/friendslop-peak-lethal-company-social-media-discourse/", "source_slug": "aftermath" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "PEAK launches on 16 June at $7.99, having been announced less than a week earlier. It sells 100,000 copies in a day, a million in six days and 4.5 million in three weeks, by its developers' count.", "card_text": "PEAK sells a million copies in six days", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GameDiscoverCo, Simon Carless (8 July 2025)", "link": "https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/how-peak-sold-45m-copies-in-less", "source_slug": "gamediscoverco" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Alinea Analytics estimates that R.E.P.O., which costs $7.99, has sold 16.4 million copies by the end of July, more than any other game in 2025. The five best-selling new games on Steam in the first half are all co-op games. Games with a co-op mode took $4.1 billion on Steam in those six months, the highest half-year on record, though that total includes big-budget games.", "card_text": "An $8 game is the best-selling game of the year so far", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Alinea Analytics, Rhys Elliott (31 July 2025)", "link": "https://alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/games-with-co-op-generated-over-4", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "GameDiscoverCo's list of the best-selling new Steam games of 2025 by copies has R.E.P.O., PEAK, Schedule I and RV There Yet? in the top ten. It calls the rise of friendslop one obvious megatrend.", "card_text": "The year's Steam charts confirm it", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GameDiscoverCo, Simon Carless (16 December 2025)", "link": "https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/revealed-the-top-new-pc-and-console-58f", "source_slug": "gamediscoverco" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Binni Erlingsson of Behold Ventures writes that calling the games slop devalues their developers' skill, and asks the trade to kill the term.", "card_text": "An investor asks the industry to drop the word", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GamesRadar+, Iain Harris (24 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamesradar.com/games/co-op/calling-steam-games-like-peak-and-repo-friendslop-devalues-the-skill-of-the-developer-industry-investor-says-so-lets-collectively-kill-the-term-before-its-too-late/", "source_slug": "gamesradar" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Meccha Chameleon, a paint-and-hide game built in two months by two Japanese developers, launches on 9 June. By the end of the month it has sold more than 10 million copies and taken more than $50 million, on GameDiscoverCo's estimate.", "card_text": "A hide-and-seek game by two developers sells 10 million copies in three weeks", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GameDiscoverCo, Simon Carless (30 June 2026)", "link": "https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/look-we-have-to-talk-about-meccha", "source_slug": "gamediscoverco" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Within weeks, near-exact copies of Meccha Chameleon appear on Roblox and Fortnite. Kotaku reports that the Roblox copies together have more people playing at once than the original, with one of them near 50,000.", "card_text": "Copies on Roblox draw more players than the original", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Kotaku, Nicole Carpenter (15 July 2026)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/more-people-are-playing-meccha-chameleon-knock-offs-than-the-original-hit-steam-game-as-the-roblox-clone-machine-goes-into-overdrive-2000715371", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "How to Fish, published by its own developers, reaches 373,971 simultaneous players on Steam five days after launch. That is more than double PEAK's record of 170,759.", "card_text": "A co-op fishing game passes 370,000 players at once in five days", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesRadar+, Jordan Gerblick (26 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamesradar.com/games/co-op/amid-the-friendslop-renaissance-usd5-co-op-fishing-game-hits-370-000-peak-players-on-steam-in-5-days/", "source_slug": "gamesradar" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Rhys Elliott of Alinea Analytics writes that budget indie games are generating more revenues than some big-budget ones. R.E.P.O. and Schedule I together took more than a quarter of a billion dollars in the first half of 2025.", "card_text": "Cheap games are out-earning some blockbusters", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Alinea Analytics, Rhys Elliott (31 July 2025)", "link": "https://alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/games-with-co-op-generated-over-4", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Chris Kerr of Game Developer reports that Aggro Crab made PEAK after deciding to pivot away from larger projects, to avoid burnout and to stop depending on outside money. A small team can now try an idea in weeks and find out quickly whether it sells.", "card_text": "Studios are swapping long projects for short ones", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Chris Kerr (26 June 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/production/how-co-op-climbing-hit-peak-achieved-2-million-sales-for-less-than-200-000-", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Rhys Elliott notes that Dear Passengers, a friendslop game from a Ukrainian studio that used to make mobile games, gathered 1.5 million wishlists in a week with no paid marketing. Savvy mobile developers, he writes, are eyeing up Steam, using TikTok and X in place of paid advertising. Small specialist publishers are moving fast to build portfolios of these games.", "card_text": "Mobile studios are moving to Steam", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Alinea Analytics, Rhys Elliott (17 July 2026)", "link": "https://alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/another-friendslop-challenger-enters", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The investor Binni Erlingsson argues that players who grew up on Roblox and Minecraft will keep wanting cheap social games, and that the current gaming landscape is not fully ready to catch them.", "card_text": "A generation raised on Roblox wants cheap games to play together", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GamesRadar+, Iain Harris (24 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.gamesradar.com/games/co-op/calling-steam-games-like-peak-and-repo-friendslop-devalues-the-skill-of-the-developer-industry-investor-says-so-lets-collectively-kill-the-term-before-its-too-late/", "source_slug": "gamesradar" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "AppMagic finds that only about 3% of people who try a friendslop game are still playing it 30 days later. The figure for Phasmophobia, an older co-op hit, is 5.3%, and for Dead by Daylight 11.3%. Each hit fades within months, which is why the chart of records says nothing about how many players remain between them.", "card_text": "Players do not stay", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GameDev Reports, Dmitriy Byshonkov, on AppMagic (22 April 2026)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/appmagic-friendslop-games-in-2025", "source_slug": "gamedev-reports" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Simon Carless, who tracks these games, warns that there are very few middling friendslop hits, unlike in some other spaces. A developer, he writes, has the same chances of making it work as being struck by lightning. The successes are visible, and the many failures are not counted.", "card_text": "The hits are lightning strikes", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GameDiscoverCo, Simon Carless (30 June 2026)", "link": "https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/look-we-have-to-talk-about-meccha", "source_slug": "gamediscoverco" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The $4.1 billion often quoted covers every Steam game with a co-op mode, including $70 blockbusters. No one publishes a revenue figure for friendslop alone. Alinea points out that copies do not equal cash: in mid-2026 Meccha Chameleon was the year's top game by copies sold and only eighteenth by revenue on Steam. Alinea's own advice is that the takeaway is not to go and make a friendslop game.", "card_text": "Nobody publishes a friendslop number, and copies are not cash", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Alinea Analytics, Rhys Elliott (1 July 2026)", "link": "https://alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/2026s-top-games-by-copies-sold-so", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Late 2026, when Dear Passengers is due. With more than 1.5 million wishlists, it is the first test of whether a friendslop game that was hyped in advance sells like the ones that arrived by surprise.", "card_text": "Whether a wishlist hit converts", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PC Gamer, Christopher Livingston (21 July 2026)", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/games/action/a-new-friendslop-game-is-already-steams-12th-most-wishlisted-game-a-mere-week-after-it-was-announced/", "source_slug": "pc-gamer" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Mid-December 2026, when GameDiscoverCo usually publishes its list of the year's best-selling new games. Four friendslop games made the top ten in 2025.", "card_text": "The year-end Steam charts", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GameDiscoverCo, Simon Carless (16 December 2025)", "link": "https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/revealed-the-top-new-pc-and-console-58f", "source_slug": "gamediscoverco" } ] }, { "slug": "live-ops-is-becoming-a-playbook", "name": "Mobile live events are converging on one playbook", "stage": "Emerging", "category": "Money & business model", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "prolongs-h1", "horizon_line": "Optimizing the existing model, not inventing a new one.", "markets": [ "Global", "US" ], "what_it_is": "Naavik's Harshal Karvande finds that the three main kinds of mobile puzzle game now run the same events: daily jackpots, contests against other players and endless sticker albums. AppMagic counted events launched by top games in 2025, and the monthly average rose from 73 to 89. Royal Match, a leading puzzle game, runs 14 recurring events a week. In 2026 the developer of Last War, a top strategy game, said the pace of spending had started to feel overwhelming.", "why_it_matters": "Live ops means the events, offers and updates that keep a game earning after launch. Naavik's Harshal Karvande argues that in mobile puzzle games this work now matters more than the game underneath. The top games run the same few events.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Converging Live Ops Trends in Mobile Puzzle", "link": "https://naavik.co/digest/live-ops-trends-powering-mobile-puzzle/", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "H1 2026: 4X Strategy's UA Reckoning", "link": "https://naavik.co/f2p-mobile/h1-2026-4x-strategys-ua-reckoning/", "type": "Data", "format": "" }, { "source": "Book Excerpt: Running a Successful Live Service Game", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/book-excerpt-running-a-successful-live-service-game", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "Naavik, Deconstructor of Fun, PocketGamer.biz, GDC live ops talks, Game Developer's production desk", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "", "series_note": "", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ { "text": "Naavik's Harshal Karvande", "href": "https://naavik.co/digest/live-ops-trends-powering-mobile-puzzle/" }, " finds that the three main kinds of mobile puzzle game now run the same events: daily jackpots, contests against other players and endless sticker albums. ", { "text": "AppMagic", "href": "https://appmagic.rocks/research/liveops-report-2025" }, " counted events launched by top games in 2025, and the monthly average rose from 73 to 89. Royal Match, a leading puzzle game, runs 14 recurring events a week. In 2026 the developer of Last War, a top strategy game, said the pace of spending had started to feel overwhelming." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Definition", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Live ops, short for 'live operations,' is the everyday work of running a game after it launches. That includes seasonal events, special offers, testing what players respond to, and keeping new content on a regular schedule. Studios increasingly treat it as a permanent team with a set way of working, not something they handle one update at a time.", "card_text": "What is live ops?", "year": "", "market": "", "source": "Naavik", "link": "", "source_slug": "naavik" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A battle pass is a paid track of rewards that a player unlocks by playing through a season. GameRefinery finds one in 21% of the 100 top-earning iPhone games in the US at the end of 2019, up from a couple of percent at the start of the year.", "card_text": "A fifth of the top US mobile games have a battle pass", "year": "2019", "market": "", "source": "GameRefinery, Erno Kiiski (17 December 2019)", "link": "https://www.gamerefinery.com/battle-pass-trend-mobile-games/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "GameRefinery tracks three top-earning strategy games for a year. Of their 240 updates, 167 were events and new content. Only eight added a new feature.", "card_text": "Seven in ten updates to top strategy games are events or new content", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "GameRefinery, Veikko Piirainen (10 June 2021)", "link": "https://www.gamerefinery.com/analyze-top-grossing-games-liveops/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "GameRefinery finds a battle pass in 60% of the top-earning fifth of iPhone games in the US. The base differs from its 2019 count, so the two figures are not one series.", "card_text": "Most top-earning games now have a battle pass", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "GameDev Reports, Dmitriy Byshonkov, on GameRefinery (10 June 2022)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/gamerefinery-mobile-games-monetization", "source_slug": "gamedev-reports" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "GameRefinery puts the share of the top-earning fifth of mobile games with a battle pass at 66%.", "card_text": "Two thirds have one", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "GameRefinery, Wilhelm Voutilainen and Jenna Jokela (26 October 2023)", "link": "https://www.gamerefinery.com/12-ways-to-take-battle-passes-to-the-next-level-in-mobile-games/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A book on running live games defines live ops as delivering frequent, data-driven events to players without involving the team that develops the game.", "card_text": "Live ops gets its own handbook", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, Volodymyr Dubrovskyi and Sergei Vasiuk (17 December 2024)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/book-excerpt-running-a-successful-live-service-game", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Whiteout Survival, one of the top-earning strategy games, runs nine interconnected Halloween events in a single October campaign.", "card_text": "One game runs nine linked Halloween events at once", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower, Rui Ma (March 2026)", "link": "https://sensortower.com/blog/top-grossing-mobile-games-live-ops-strategies-2025-report", "source_slug": "sensor-tower" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Naavik finds the three main kinds of mobile puzzle game running the same events: a short daily challenge with a large shared prize, events that mix competing with other players and completing goals, and sticker albums that restart when finished rather than ending after two months. On US iPhones their players also behave alike. About a quarter of those who play on the first day are still playing after three months, for about 38 minutes a day.", "card_text": "The top puzzle games settle on the same set of events", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Naavik, Harshal Karvande (16 November 2025)", "link": "https://naavik.co/digest/live-ops-trends-powering-mobile-puzzle/", "source_slug": "naavik" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "AppMagic's first report on live ops counts the events that top mobile games launched between December 2024 and November 2025. The average per game rises from 73 a month to 89. Collection events run in about 80% of the games. One game, Gossip Harbor, runs nearly 100 events a month.", "card_text": "The average game goes from 73 events a month to 89", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "AppMagic, LiveOps Report 2025 (15 January 2026)", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2026-01-15-LiveOps_Report_2025_EN.pdf", "source_slug": "appmagic" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Last War: Survival eases its monetization in April 2026 and appears to stop paying for advertising from May. Its developer says the constant pace of spending has started to feel overwhelming for players.", "card_text": "A top strategy game says the pace of spending is too much", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Naavik, Max Abrahamsen (15 August 2026)", "link": "https://naavik.co/f2p-mobile/h1-2026-4x-strategys-ua-reckoning/", "source_slug": "naavik" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Naavik counts 14 recurring events a week in Royal Match, a leading puzzle game, eight of them competitive. Casual puzzle games now earn 2.4 times as much from each download as they did before Royal Match arrived in 2021.", "card_text": "Royal Match runs fourteen recurring events a week", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Naavik, Jordan Phang (23 August 2026)", "link": "https://naavik.co/weekly-digest/the-great-mobile-convergence/", "source_slug": "naavik" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Harshal Karvande of Naavik concludes that 'having great core gameplay isn't enough to be a top-grossing hit', meaning one of the highest earners. What separates the winners is the layer of events on top, and the team that runs it.", "card_text": "A good game is no longer enough", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Naavik, Harshal Karvande (16 November 2025)", "link": "https://naavik.co/digest/live-ops-trends-powering-mobile-puzzle/", "source_slug": "naavik" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Michail Katkoff of Deconstructor of Fun argues that in a mature market the advantage goes to companies with established players and the systems to keep serving them, not to new ideas. In 2025, he notes, the 50 biggest mobile games took 80% of the market's growth.", "card_text": "The leaders get harder to dislodge", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Deconstructor of Fun, Michail Katkoff (17 March 2026)", "link": "https://www.deconstructoroffun.com/blog/seven-things-the-2025-state-of-gaming-report-actually-tells-us", "source_slug": "deconstructor-of-fun" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "AppMagic's analysts judge that around 70% of the events in casual games are clearly aimed at paying players, though anyone can take part. More events means more reasons to spend, offered more often.", "card_text": "Most events are built for the players who pay", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GameDev Reports, Dmitriy Byshonkov, on AppMagic (20 May 2026)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/appmagic-mobile-live-ops-in-2025", "source_slug": "gamedev-reports" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Jordan Phang of Naavik argues that casual games now borrow from games for committed players, adding competition, team play and collections, while the simplest free games add random prize draws and player-against-player modes. 'You cannot live in a genre silo,' he writes.", "card_text": "Genres are blurring into each other", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Naavik, Jordan Phang (23 August 2026)", "link": "https://naavik.co/weekly-digest/the-great-mobile-convergence/", "source_slug": "naavik" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Tim Shepherd of Naavik points to the cheap co-op PC games that players call friendslop, such as Peak and R.E.P.O. They shipped rough, with no events calendar, and are beating expensive games built around keeping players. 'Fun isn't necessarily an output of high budgets,' he writes. These are paid PC games, not free mobile ones, so they limit how far the argument reaches more than they contradict it.", "card_text": "A note on scope: outside mobile, hits have skipped the playbook", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Naavik, Tim Shepherd (9 August 2026)", "link": "https://naavik.co/digest/friendslop-disrupting-the-live-ops-status-quo/", "source_slug": "naavik" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "AppMagic's figures come from what non-paying Android users in the United States were shown, over a single twelve months. Events shown only to paying players, and every other market, are outside the sample. It is the first edition, so there is no earlier year to compare. Nobody publishes a yearly measure of how many events games run, or of how alike they have become.", "card_text": "The count covers one year, one country and players who do not pay", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "AppMagic, LiveOps Report 2025 (15 January 2026)", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2026-01-15-LiveOps_Report_2025_EN.pdf", "source_slug": "appmagic" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Everyone copying a new leader is still copying, but what gets copied does not hold still. AppMagic reports that within two years the games everyone copied stopped being Royal Match and Monopoly Go and became Gossip Harbor. Naavik's own author adds a caveat: the newest kinds of puzzle game are yet to be proven at scale.", "card_text": "The model everyone copies keeps changing", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "AppMagic, LiveOps Report 2025 (15 January 2026)", "link": "https://investgame.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2026-01-15-LiveOps_Report_2025_EN.pdf", "source_slug": "appmagic" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "January 2027, if AppMagic repeats the timing of its first report. A second edition would give the first true comparison of one year with the next.", "card_text": "AppMagic's second count", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "AppMagic, LiveOps Report 2025 (15 January 2026)", "link": "https://appmagic.rocks/research/liveops-report-2025", "source_slug": "appmagic" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "1 to 5 March 2027 in San Francisco, where studios present how they run live games. It is the best public view of how far the methods have spread.", "card_text": "The Game Developers Conference", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Game Developers Conference", "link": "https://gdconf.com/", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "dormant-ip-revival", "name": "Publishers are reviving dormant franchises", "stage": "Emerging", "category": "Money & business model", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "prolongs-h1", "horizon_line": "Risk minimization: familiar names in place of new bets.", "markets": [ "DE", "Global", "JP", "KR", "US" ], "what_it_is": "Publishers are treating unused intellectual property, or IP, franchises they own but have not used in years, as an asset, while money for new studios thins, as the investment page shows. Capcom said in September 2026, after a million-copy launch day for Onimusha, that it is re-activating IPs it has not launched recently, alongside its new releases. Blizzard is bringing StarCraft back as a shooter for 2030, Nintendo has dated a remake of a 1998 Zelda, and Nexon has licensed its catalog to outside developers.", "why_it_matters": "Publishers are going back to franchises they own and left alone for years, beside their new releases rather than in place of them, and Capcom now says so in a plan for investors. For players the schedule fills with names they know.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Capcom says it will focus on reviving dormant IPs after Onimusha: Way of the Sword breakout launch", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/capcom-says-it-will-focus-on-reviving-dormant-ips-after-onimusha-way-of-the-swords-breakout-launch", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "Onimusha: Way of the Sword surpasses one million units on launch day; Capcom to focus on re-activating IPs", "link": "https://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/news/html/e260907.html", "type": "Primary", "format": "" }, { "source": "Gamers spend twice as much on remakes as remasters", "link": "https://www.ampereanalysis.com/insight/gamers-spend-twice-as-much-on-remakes-as-remasters", "type": "Data", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "GamesIndustry.biz, Video Games Chronicle, Gematsu, Inven Global, publisher investor days", "status_label": "What is being revived", "measure_label": "The detail", "row_label": "", "series_label": "How long each revived game had been away, in years", "series_note": "Every revival on this page brings back something that had been gone for at least thirteen years, and the Zelda remake reaches back twenty-eight.", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "Publishers are treating unused intellectual property, or IP, franchises they own but have not used in years, as an asset, while money for new studios thins, as the ", { "text": "investment page", "href": "/trend/studio-investment-in-games-plummets" }, " shows. Capcom said in September 2026, after a million-copy launch day for Onimusha, that it is re-activating IPs it has not launched recently, alongside its new releases. Blizzard is bringing StarCraft back as a shooter for 2030, Nintendo has dated a remake of a 1998 Zelda, and Nexon has licensed its catalog to outside developers." ], "series_format": "{n} years", "claims": [ { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Capcom tells investors that unlocking value from its older intellectual property is part of its long-term plans. It uses almost identical language in a December 2024 investor release tied to the reveal of Onimusha: Way of the Sword, and again in September 2026. The back catalog is described as an asset the company has not yet spent.", "card_text": "Capcom tells investors its unused franchises are part of the long-term plan", "year": "2019", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/capcom-says-it-will-focus-on-reviving-dormant-ips-after-onimusha-way-of-the-swords-breakout-launch", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Konami restructures its game development divisions and moves to return its largest brands to premium games, according to publishing sources who speak to VGC anonymously. Its last new Metal Gear was 2018 and its last mainline Castlevania 2014. A Castlevania reimagining is internal, a Metal Gear Solid project goes to the external studio Virtuos, and several Silent Hill games go to outside developers.", "card_text": "Publishing sources tell VGC that Konami is bringing back three dormant series", "year": "2021", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Chronicle", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/konami-is-set-to-revive-metal-gear-castlevania-and-silent-hill/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The analytics firm Ampere Analysis reports on 3 November 2025 that the remakes and remasters released across 2024 and 2025 drew 72.4 million players on Xbox, PlayStation and Steam, who spent over $1.4 billion on full games and in-game purchases. Of the 42 titles it examined, the average remake drew 2.2 times the spending of the average remaster.", "card_text": "Ampere Analysis measures what two years of remakes and remasters earned", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Ampere Analysis", "link": "https://www.ampereanalysis.com/insight/gamers-spend-twice-as-much-on-remakes-as-remasters", "source_slug": "ampere-analysis" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Nexon unveils Nexon Replay on 18 December 2025, an open licensing project that lets outside developers make games from its intellectual property. Tactical Commanders, an online strategy game that launched on 1 January 2001 and shut down on 31 December 2005, is in the published lineup.", "card_text": "Nexon opens its back catalog to anyone who wants to build on it", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Inven Global", "link": "https://www.invenglobal.com/articles/25668/tactical-commanders-r-returns-via-steam-for-real", "source_slug": "inven-global" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Ubisoft cancels six games in a reset announced on 21 January 2026, among them the Prince of Persia: Sands of Time remake, a mobile title and four unannounced games of which three are original IP. It also gives seven games more development time, closes its Halifax mobile studio and its Stockholm studio, and targets a further 200 million euros of fixed-cost reduction over two years. The company says the reshaped portfolio follows more selective quality criteria.", "card_text": "Ubisoft cancels a remake it had already delayed for years", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Ubisoft Entertainment IR", "link": "https://staticctf.ubisoft.com/8aefmxkxpxwl/3aFqB7LIwClyxuXWrQRoVG/039a0058bd9ff27168ff8e76d6704275/Slideshow_vF.pdf", "source_slug": "ubisoft-entertainment-ir" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Konami announces on 12 March 2026 that as of 31 January the Silent Hill 2 remake, released on 8 October 2024, has passed five million units worldwide, counting digital and physical sales, store downloads and subscription services across PC, PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S. It marks the figure with a half-price sale on the deluxe edition.", "card_text": "Konami reports five million sales for the Silent Hill 2 remake", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Konami", "link": "https://www.konami.com/games/us/en/topics/3137/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "SNK launches a thirtieth anniversary website for Metal Slug on 19 April 2026 and says the project's mission is reigniting and rebooting the franchise, including the development of new games. The series reached arcades in 1996. No new title, platform or date is attached to the statement.", "card_text": "SNK says it is rebooting Metal Slug in the series' thirtieth year", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "SNK", "link": "https://www.snk-corp.co.jp/us/press/2026/metal-slug-30th-anniversary-project-special-website-socials-and-video-deployed/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Steam page for Tactical Commanders R goes live on 7 September 2026. ChogaSoft, an outside developer working under the Nexon Replay license, announced the remaster in May 2026. The original ran for about six years before Nexon closed it at the end of 2005, and the remaster keeps its territorial control and faction warfare systems.", "card_text": "ChogaSoft puts a Nexon game that closed in 2005 back on Steam", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Inven Global", "link": "https://www.invenglobal.com/articles/25668/tactical-commanders-r-returns-via-steam-for-real", "source_slug": "inven-global" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Onimusha: Way of the Sword, described by Capcom as the first new title in the series in over 20 years, sells more than a million units on its launch day of 4 September 2026 and takes cumulative series sales past ten million. Capcom says it is focusing on re-activating IPs that have not had a new title launch recently, and is working to further maximize corporate value by leveraging its rich library of content.", "card_text": "Capcom says it will focus on re-activating the franchises it left alone", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Capcom IR", "link": "https://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/news/html/e260907.html", "source_slug": "capcom-ir" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Nintendo shows the first gameplay from its remake of The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time, a 1998 Nintendo 64 game, on 8 September 2026 and dates it to 5 November on Switch 2. The remake adds a jump button, a Hyrule Castle Town that can be fully explored and a Threads of Time record of what the player has done, and keeps the original loading screens between areas on purpose.", "card_text": "Nintendo dates a remake of a 1998 Zelda for November", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Nintendo Direct", "link": "https://www.nintendo.com/jp/nintendo-direct/description/20260908_en-US.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Blizzard announces at BlizzCon 2026 that the next StarCraft is an open-world first-person shooter due in 2030, the franchise's first new title since StarCraft 2: Legacy of the Void in 2015. General manager and vice president Dan Hay leads it. Blizzard has twice tried and canceled a StarCraft shooter, Ghost in 2006 and a project codenamed Ares in 2019.", "card_text": "Blizzard brings StarCraft back as a shooter, for 2030", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/new-starcraft-title-to-launch-in-2030-will-be-an-open-world-fps", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Nex Team president Thomas Kang says every major publisher has approached the company to review its old Kinect catalog and Wii catalog and to consider its IPs. The micro-console has relaunched Freefall Racers, a 2013 Kinect title, which chief executive David Lee says reached 150,000 families in its first month, and has signed Sega and Bandai Namco for Sonic and Pac-Man games.", "card_text": "Nex Playground says every major publisher has asked it about old motion-control catalogs", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/every-major-publisher-has-approached-us-to-review-their-old-kinect-and-wii-catalog-nex-playground-is-spoilt-for-choice-as-its-international-rollout-continues", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Nex raises more than $150 million in equity and debt in September 2026 to expand Nex Playground globally, broaden retail distribution and grow its content ecosystem with gaming and entertainment partners. The console's library is built largely from motion-control games the original platforms abandoned, and the company has said every major publisher has approached it about old Kinect and Wii catalogs.", "card_text": "Nex raises over $150 million to take its motion-control catalog worldwide", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PocketGamer.biz (21 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/nex-raises-over-150m-to-take-nex-playground-global/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "World of Warcraft: Forever, Blizzard's remastered and expanded version of the 2004 original, reaches 807,000 peak viewers across its reveal and beta in September 2026, according to Streams Charts, with watch time rising across platforms. The beta opened on 17 September 2026 and the full release follows on 4 November.", "card_text": "A remaster of a 2004 game draws 807,000 peak viewers", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Streams Charts (22 September 2026)", "link": "https://streamscharts.com/news/wow-forever-viewership-chat", "source_slug": "streams-charts" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Onimusha: Way of the Sword sold more than a million units on 4 September 2026, its first day, and took series sales past ten million. Capcom says it is focusing on re-activating IPs that have not had a new title launch recently, alongside the major new titles it releases each year.", "card_text": "Onimusha, a series with no new game in over 20 years", "year": "2026", "market": "JP", "source": "Capcom IR", "link": "https://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/news/html/e260907.html", "source_slug": "capcom-ir" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Nintendo showed the first gameplay of its Switch 2 remake of the 1998 game on 8 September 2026 and dated it to 5 November. It adds a jump button and an explorable Hyrule Castle Town, and keeps the original's loading screens between areas on purpose.", "card_text": "The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time, a 1998 game remade", "year": "2026", "market": "JP", "source": "Nintendo Direct", "link": "https://www.nintendo.com/jp/nintendo-direct/description/20260908_en-US.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The next StarCraft is an open-world first-person shooter due in 2030, the first new entry since 2015. Blizzard canceled two earlier attempts at a StarCraft shooter, Ghost in 2006 and Ares in 2019. Dan Hay says it is a standalone story with a definitive ending and not a seasonal game.", "card_text": "StarCraft, no new game since 2015, back as a shooter", "year": "2026", "market": "US", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/new-starcraft-title-to-launch-in-2030-will-be-an-open-world-fps", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Nex Playground relaunched Freefall Racers, a 2013 Kinect title, which the company says reached 150,000 families in its first month, and has signed Sega and Bandai Namco for Sonic and Pac-Man games. The console sells in the United States and the United Kingdom, with Germany due later in 2026.", "card_text": "Kinect and Wii games, relicensed to a new console", "year": "2026", "market": "US", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/every-major-publisher-has-approached-us-to-review-their-old-kinect-and-wii-catalog-nex-playground-is-spoilt-for-choice-as-its-international-rollout-continues", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Nexon Replay, unveiled on 18 December 2025, lets outside developers build games from Nexon's intellectual property. ChogaSoft used it to remaster Tactical Commanders, whose servers closed on 31 December 2005, and the Steam page for Tactical Commanders R went live on 7 September 2026.", "card_text": "Nexon's back catalog, licensed to outside developers", "year": "2026", "market": "KR", "source": "Inven Global", "link": "https://www.invenglobal.com/articles/25668/tactical-commanders-r-returns-via-steam-for-real", "source_slug": "inven-global" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Ampere Analysis counts 72.4 million players of the remakes and remasters released across 2024 and 2025 on Xbox, PlayStation and Steam, who spent over $1.4 billion. Of the 42 titles it examined, the average remake drew 2.2 times the spending of the average remaster.", "card_text": "Remakes and remasters as a category", "year": "2025", "market": "Global", "source": "Ampere Analysis", "link": "https://www.ampereanalysis.com/insight/gamers-spend-twice-as-much-on-remakes-as-remasters", "source_slug": "ampere-analysis" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Freefall Racers came out on Kinect in 2013 and Nex Playground relaunched it in 2026.", "card_text": "13", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Our calculation from the dates each company published", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/every-major-publisher-has-approached-us-to-review-their-old-kinect-and-wii-catalog-nex-playground-is-spoilt-for-choice-as-its-international-rollout-continues", "source_slug": "", "period": "Freefall Racers" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The last StarCraft game, Legacy of the Void, came out in 2015 and the next is due in 2030, so this is the gap to release rather than years already elapsed.", "card_text": "15", "year": "2030", "market": "", "source": "Our calculation from the dates each company published", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/new-starcraft-title-to-launch-in-2030-will-be-an-open-world-fps", "source_slug": "", "period": "StarCraft, due 2030" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Capcom calls Onimusha: Way of the Sword, released on 4 September 2026, the first new title in the series in over 20 years.", "card_text": "20", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Our calculation from the dates each company published", "link": "https://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/news/html/e260907.html", "source_slug": "", "period": "Onimusha" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "Nexon closed Tactical Commanders on 31 December 2005 and the Steam page for ChogaSoft's remaster went live on 7 September 2026.", "card_text": "21", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Our calculation from the dates each company published", "link": "https://www.invenglobal.com/articles/25668/tactical-commanders-r-returns-via-steam-for-real", "source_slug": "", "period": "Tactical Commanders" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The original Ocarina of Time came out on the Nintendo 64 in 1998 and the Switch 2 remake is dated 5 November 2026.", "card_text": "28", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Our calculation from the dates each company published", "link": "https://www.nintendo.com/jp/nintendo-direct/description/20260908_en-US.html", "source_slug": "", "period": "Ocarina of Time" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Capcom set out the plan in an investor release with a stated financial purpose, maximizing corporate value from its library, and placed it beside the major new titles it releases each year. A franchise that has shipped nothing for two decades is being counted as capital that can be put to work, and its owner is the only company that can do so.", "card_text": "The back catalog is a line in the strategy, not a nostalgia project", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Capcom IR", "link": "https://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/news/html/e260907.html", "source_slug": "capcom-ir" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The asset being revived is the franchise, not the genre that built it. StarCraft returns in 2030 as an open-world first-person shooter, eleven years after the last entry and thirty-two after the original strategy game, and Dan Hay describes a standalone story with a beginning, a middle and an end, not a seasonal game.", "card_text": "A revived name can come back as a different kind of game", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/new-starcraft-title-to-launch-in-2030-will-be-an-open-world-fps", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Nexon Replay lets outside developers build games from Nexon's intellectual property, and ChogaSoft used it to bring back a strategy game whose servers closed in 2005. The publisher that owns an old game no longer has to be the company that revives it, or to carry the cost of doing so.", "card_text": "Old catalogs become inventory that other companies can license", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Inven Global", "link": "https://www.invenglobal.com/articles/25668/tactical-commanders-r-returns-via-steam-for-real", "source_slug": "inven-global" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Nex Playground relaunched Freefall Racers, a 2013 Kinect title, and reached 150,000 families in its first month. Sega and Bandai Namco have signed Sonic and Pac-Man games to the platform. A console with no library of its own can build one from motion-control games the original platforms left behind.", "card_text": "A hardware maker can assemble a catalog out of other companies' abandoned games", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/every-major-publisher-has-approached-us-to-review-their-old-kinect-and-wii-catalog-nex-playground-is-spoilt-for-choice-as-its-international-rollout-continues", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Ampere Analysis puts spending on remakes and remasters across 2024 and 2025 at over $1.4 billion from 72.4 million players on Xbox, PlayStation and Steam. In the same note it says the average remake drew 2.2 times the spending of the average remaster and costs far more to make. The headline figure adds together two products with different costs and different returns.", "card_text": "The market figure counts two different products as one", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Ampere Analysis", "link": "https://www.ampereanalysis.com/insight/gamers-spend-twice-as-much-on-remakes-as-remasters", "source_slug": "ampere-analysis" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Ubisoft canceled the Prince of Persia: Sands of Time remake in January 2026 after years of delay, one of six games cut under what it calls more selective portfolio criteria. The same reset cut three original IPs, closed two studios and targeted a further 200 million euros of fixed-cost reduction. A remake can fail the test a new game fails.", "card_text": "Reviving an old game is not the safe bet it is sold as", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Ubisoft Entertainment IR", "link": "https://staticctf.ubisoft.com/8aefmxkxpxwl/3aFqB7LIwClyxuXWrQRoVG/039a0058bd9ff27168ff8e76d6704275/Slideshow_vF.pdf", "source_slug": "ubisoft-entertainment-ir" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "SNK chief publishing officer Ozan Kocoglu, speaking about his own company, says SNK needs a fresh perspective on how to keep growing by bringing new things, staying innovative, and breaking from the legacy of what it has been doing. SNK is the publisher behind the Metal Slug reboot and the new VS Studio under Katsuhiro Harada.", "card_text": "One publisher reviving its catalog says growth comes from breaking with it", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Video Games Chronicle", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/features/interviews/katsuhiro-harada-and-snk-discuss-their-bold-ambitions-to-revive-japans-golden-era/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The claim that every major publisher has approached a company about its old Kinect and Wii catalogs comes from Thomas Kang, president of the company selling the console those games would run on. No publisher has confirmed it. The deals named in the same interview number two, with Sega and with Bandai Namco.", "card_text": "The broadest claim on this page comes from the party that needs it to be true", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "GamesIndustry.biz", "link": "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/every-major-publisher-has-approached-us-to-review-their-old-kinect-and-wii-catalog-nex-playground-is-spoilt-for-choice-as-its-international-rollout-continues", "source_slug": "gamesindustry-biz" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "5 November 2026, when Nintendo releases its remake of a 1998 Zelda on Switch 2. Nintendo has said the remake keeps the original's structure, including the loading screens between areas. It is this year's largest test of whether a faithful rebuild of a very old game sells like a new one from the same publisher.", "card_text": "The Ocarina of Time remake reaches players", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Nintendo Direct", "link": "https://www.nintendo.com/jp/nintendo-direct/description/20260908_en-US.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Later in 2026, when the Nex Playground micro-console launches in Germany at 319 euros, and 2027, when the company says it will enter Japan. Nex raised more than $150 million in September 2026 to expand distribution and its content ecosystem. Whether relicensed motion-control games travel beyond the United States and the United Kingdom is the test, and Japan is the harder half of it.", "card_text": "Nex Playground reaches Germany, then Japan", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PocketGamer.biz (21 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/nex-raises-over-150m-to-take-nex-playground-global/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "2027, when SNK ships Metal Slug Ultimate Collection, announced on 9 September 2026 for Switch, Switch 2, PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S and Steam. It is nine past games plus a location-test build, so the reboot SNK announced in April 2026 still has no new game of its own attached. Watch for the first one.", "card_text": "SNK attaches a new game to its Metal Slug reboot", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "SNK", "link": "https://www.snk-corp.co.jp/us/press/2026/the-ultimate-collection-featuring-all-past-titles-metal-slug-ultimate-collection-set-for-release-includes-nine-titles-from-the-series-history-plus-a-rare-location-test-ve/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Definition", "kind": "Event", "claim": "IP is intellectual property: a franchise a publisher owns, with the name, characters and world it can make new games from. A dormant one has had no new game for years. Capcom's own formulation is IPs that have not had a new title launch recently, and it attaches no number of years to the phrase. Onimusha: Way of the Sword, the game that prompted the statement, is by Capcom's count the first new title in the series in over 20 years.", "card_text": "What is a dormant IP?", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Capcom IR", "link": "https://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/news/html/e260907.html", "source_slug": "capcom-ir" } ] }, { "slug": "mobile-publishers-move-payments-to-web-shops", "name": "Mobile publishers are moving payments to their own web shops", "stage": "Emerging", "category": "Money & business model", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "prolongs-h1", "horizon_line": "The same publishers keep the same games and more of each sale.", "markets": [ "EU", "Global", "US" ], "what_it_is": "Since a US court barred Apple in April 2025 from taking a cut of sales made through a link out of an app, mobile publishers have been moving players to their own web shops. Playtika's direct sales rose 63.1% in a year, to $286.9 million of $731.1 million in the second quarter of 2026. Stillfront now takes 46% of its bookings directly. Casino games lead. A survey by Appcharge, which handles such payments, puts direct sales at about 15% of mobile in-app spending in 2025.", "why_it_matters": "Apple and Google have long taken up to 30% of what players spend inside mobile games. A sale moved to a web shop keeps most of that with the publisher. The same companies run the same games, and keep more of each dollar.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Sensor Tower reveals the hidden impact of D2C revenue in mobile games", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/sensor-tower-reveals-the-hidden-impact-of-d2c-revenue-in-mobile-games/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "The New Reality of Mobile DTC Payments", "link": "https://naavik.co/deep-dives/the-new-reality-of-mobile-dtc-payments/", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "Interim Report Q2 2026", "link": "https://www.stillfront.com/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/10/report-interim-report-q2-2026-260724.pdf", "type": "Primary", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Oct 2026", "where_to_follow": "Playtika and Stillfront quarterly results, PocketGamer.biz, mobilegamer.biz, Naavik, Sensor Tower", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "What Playtika sold directly to players each quarter, $ millions", "series_note": "Flat near $175 million a quarter until mid-2025, Playtika's direct sales then rose by almost two thirds in a year, to $286.9 million in the second quarter of 2026.", "series_type": "line", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "Since a US court barred Apple in April 2025 from taking a cut of sales made through a link out of an app, mobile publishers have been moving players to their own web shops. ", { "text": "Playtika's direct sales", "href": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828016/000182801626000046/a2026q2ex991-earningsrelea.htm" }, " rose 63.1% in a year, to $286.9 million of $731.1 million in the second quarter of 2026. ", { "text": "Stillfront", "href": "https://www.stillfront.com/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/10/report-interim-report-q2-2026-260724.pdf" }, " now takes 46% of its bookings directly. Casino games lead. A survey by Appcharge, which handles such payments, puts direct sales at about 15% of mobile in-app spending in 2025." ], "series_format": "${n} million", "claims": [ { "section": "Definition", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "A web shop is a store a game's publisher runs on the web, where players buy in-game content to use on their phones or PCs. The industry calls these sales direct-to-consumer, or D2C.", "card_text": "What is a web shop?", "year": "", "market": "", "source": "PocketGamer.biz, Paige Cook (3 October 2025)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/epic-games-launches-global-web-shops-for-mobile-and-pc/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Playtika took through its own direct-to-consumer platforms in the first quarter of 2024. Its total revenue that quarter was $651.2 million.", "card_text": "171.5", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Playtika Holding Corp.'s quarterly results", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828016/000182801624000017/a2024q1ex991-earningsrelea.htm", "source_slug": "", "period": "Q1 2024" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Playtika took through its own direct-to-consumer platforms in the second quarter of 2024. Its total revenue that quarter was $627.0 million.", "card_text": "173.7", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Playtika Holding Corp.'s quarterly results", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828016/000182801624000027/a2024q2ex991-earningsrelea.htm", "source_slug": "", "period": "Q2 2024" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Playtika took through its own direct-to-consumer platforms in the third quarter of 2024. Its total revenue that quarter was $620.8 million.", "card_text": "174.4", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Playtika Holding Corp.'s quarterly results", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828016/000182801624000033/a2024q3ex991-earningsrelea.htm", "source_slug": "", "period": "Q3 2024" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Playtika took through its own direct-to-consumer platforms in the fourth quarter of 2024. Its total revenue that quarter was $650.3 million.", "card_text": "174.6", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Playtika Holding Corp.'s quarterly results", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828016/000182801625000009/a2024q4ex991-earningsrelea.htm", "source_slug": "", "period": "Q4 2024" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Playtika took through its own direct-to-consumer platforms in the first quarter of 2025. Its total revenue that quarter was $706.0 million.", "card_text": "179.2", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Playtika Holding Corp.'s quarterly results", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828016/000182801625000023/a2025q1ex991-earningsrelea.htm", "source_slug": "", "period": "Q1 2025" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Playtika took through its own direct-to-consumer platforms in the second quarter of 2025. Its total revenue that quarter was $696.0 million.", "card_text": "175.9", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Playtika Holding Corp.'s quarterly results", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828016/000182801625000036/a2025q2ex991-earningsrelea.htm", "source_slug": "", "period": "Q2 2025" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Playtika took through its own direct-to-consumer platforms in the third quarter of 2025. Its total revenue that quarter was $674.6 million.", "card_text": "209.3", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Playtika Holding Corp.'s quarterly results", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828016/000182801625000046/a2025q3ex991-earningsrelea.htm", "source_slug": "", "period": "Q3 2025" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Playtika took through its own direct-to-consumer platforms in the fourth quarter of 2025. Its total revenue that quarter was $678.8 million.", "card_text": "250.1", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Playtika Holding Corp.'s quarterly results", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828016/000182801626000009/a2025q4ex991-earningsrelea.htm", "source_slug": "", "period": "Q4 2025" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Playtika took through its own direct-to-consumer platforms in the first quarter of 2026. Its total revenue that quarter was $744.7 million.", "card_text": "291.8", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Playtika Holding Corp.'s quarterly results", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828016/000182801626000036/a2026q1ex991-earningsrelea.htm", "source_slug": "", "period": "Q1 2026" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What Playtika took through its own direct-to-consumer platforms in the second quarter of 2026. Its total revenue that quarter was $731.1 million.", "card_text": "286.9", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Playtika Holding Corp.'s quarterly results", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828016/000182801626000046/a2026q2ex991-earningsrelea.htm", "source_slug": "", "period": "Q2 2026" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A federal judge rules in April 2025 that Apple cannot take a commission on payments made outside the App Store, and cannot stop US apps from pointing players to them. For the first time, a US game can send its players to its own web shop and keep the whole sale.", "card_text": "A US court bars Apple from taking a cut of sales made outside its store", "year": "2025", "market": "US", "source": "mobilegamer.biz, Neil Long (1 May 2025)", "link": "https://mobilegamer.biz/epic-claims-victory-as-us-court-nukes-apples-control-over-app-store-payments/", "source_slug": "mobilegamer-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Epic Games, the maker of Fortnite, launches Epic Web Shops, which let developers sell in-game items to players on phones and PCs. Developers keep all of the first $1 million in net revenue per game each year, and do not have to sell the game on Epic's store.", "card_text": "Epic opens web shops to any game and keeps nothing on the first $1 million", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "PocketGamer.biz, Paige Cook (3 October 2025)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/epic-games-launches-global-web-shops-for-mobile-and-pc/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Take-Two, which expects its mobile label Zynga to bring in about 46% of its bookings for the year, tells investors that after recent legal changes its teams have rolled out technology for direct transactions and new ways to pay. It expects the channel to expand bookings and margins meaningfully.", "card_text": "Take-Two rolls out direct payments in its mobile games", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Take-Two Interactive, second-quarter fiscal 2026 conference call remarks (6 November 2025)", "link": "https://ir.take2games.com/static-files/d7def4ae-13b2-458e-8efe-081b0ee3e044", "source_slug": "take-two-interactive-ir" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Playtika, the Israeli maker of Bingo Blitz and Solitaire Grand Harvest, reports a record $209.3 million from its own direct-to-consumer platforms in the third quarter of 2025, up 19.0% on the quarter before and 20.0% on a year earlier.", "card_text": "Playtika's direct sales jump 19% in a quarter", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Playtika Holding Corp., third-quarter 2025 results (6 November 2025)", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828016/000182801625000046/a2025q3ex991-earningsrelea.htm", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Stillfront, the Swedish owner of Big Farm and Empire, says 46% of its bookings in the second quarter of 2026 went through its own payment platforms, up from 39% a year earlier. Its app-store share fell from 49% to 42%.", "card_text": "Stillfront takes 46% of its bookings directly", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Stillfront Group, interim report for the second quarter of 2026 (24 July 2026)", "link": "https://www.stillfront.com/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/10/report-interim-report-q2-2026-260724.pdf", "source_slug": "stillfront-group" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Playtika takes $286.9 million through its own platforms in the second quarter of 2026, out of $731.1 million in revenue. Direct sales are up 63.1% on a year earlier, while revenue as a whole is up 5.0%.", "card_text": "Playtika's direct sales rise 63.1% in a year", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Playtika Holding Corp., second-quarter 2026 results (6 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828016/000182801626000046/a2026q2ex991-earningsrelea.htm", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Sensor Tower estimates that Monopoly Go took $143 million from US players in June 2026, of which $52.6 million came through its own web shop. Web shop sales grew 41% over the first half of 2026 while sales in the app stores fell 25%.", "card_text": "Monopoly Go makes over a third of its US revenue in its web shop", "year": "2026", "market": "US", "source": "mobilegamer.biz, Vikki Blake (12 August 2026)", "link": "https://mobilegamer.biz/data-digest-monopoly-gos-booming-webstore-pokemon-go-spikes-love-and-deepspace-revenue-crashes-more/", "source_slug": "mobilegamer-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "PocketGamer.biz tallies what publishers reported for the second quarter of 2026. DoubleDown Interactive now takes 52.4% of its social casino revenue directly, up from 15.4% a year earlier. Modern Times Group takes 38%, and Playstudios 34.4% of its virtual currency sales.", "card_text": "DoubleDown passes half its casino sales direct", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PocketGamer.biz, Craig Chapple (17 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/how-much-direct-to-consumer-revenue-are-publishers-actually-making/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Sensor Tower, which sells app-market estimates, says some mobile games now take more than 30% of sales directly. In its US study of the first half of 2026, about 30% of the revenue of the top 100 casino games came from outside the app stores, and puzzle and strategy games took little. It is preparing a feature that estimates web shop revenue.", "card_text": "Sensor Tower finds casino games lead, and gets ready to sell the numbers", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PocketGamer.biz, Craig Chapple (25 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/sensor-tower-reveals-the-hidden-impact-of-d2c-revenue-in-mobile-games/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Playtika's executives say so of their own business. Its finance chief, Craig Abrahams, told investors that \"a growing direct-to-consumer mix is protecting margins\", and its chief executive named growing that mix as company strategy.", "card_text": "Direct sales hold up margins", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Playtika Holding Corp., third-quarter 2025 results (6 November 2025)", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828016/000182801625000046/a2025q3ex991-earningsrelea.htm", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Naavik, writing with the payments firm Neon as its partner, argues that publishers are moving revenue from the stores' 30% fees to payment processing fees of 3% to 4%. Cutting prices on the web shop grows its share fast, it warns, but risks shrinking revenue by lowering what each player spends.", "card_text": "A 30% fee becomes a fee of 3% to 4%", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Naavik, Abhimanyu Kumar, Andrew Dubatowka and Jukka Hilvonen (23 November 2025)", "link": "https://naavik.co/deep-dives/the-new-reality-of-mobile-dtc-payments/", "source_slug": "naavik" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Stillfront says the move to its own payment platforms is \"primarily driven by players actively being incentivized\" to switch. It lowers reported revenue but raises profit on each sale: gross margin rose to 84% from 82%, which Stillfront puts down to the higher direct share.", "card_text": "Players are paid to move", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Stillfront Group, interim report for the second quarter of 2026 (24 July 2026)", "link": "https://www.stillfront.com/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/10/report-interim-report-q2-2026-260724.pdf", "source_slug": "stillfront-group" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Sensor Tower puts mobile game spending in the app stores at about $40 billion in the first half of 2026, down 2% on a year earlier. Its estimates count only store revenue, so a game that moves its players to a web shop looks as if it is shrinking.", "card_text": "App-store charts now miss the money", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PocketGamer.biz, Craig Chapple (25 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/sensor-tower-reveals-the-hidden-impact-of-d2c-revenue-in-mobile-games/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "An appeals court upheld the contempt finding in December 2025 but ruled that Apple may charge a commission on sales made through a link out, based on the costs genuinely and reasonably necessary to run those links, with some payment for its intellectual property. The trial judge has still to set it.", "card_text": "The free link in the US may not stay free", "year": "2025", "market": "US", "source": "US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, Epic Games v. Apple, No. 25-2935 (11 December 2025)", "link": "https://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2025/12/11/25-2935.pdf", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "At a Pocket Gamer Connects panel of payment companies, Xsolla's Inês Ramalho said most developers save only a few percentage points in practice. Worldline's Jonas Martins advised most smaller studios to aim for 15% to 20% of sales direct, and Breeze's Peter Gerson said payment processing, tax, compliance and customer service all cost money and people.", "card_text": "Small studios save less than the headline", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PocketGamer.biz, Mariam Ahmad (19 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/d2c-in-games-promise-versus-reality/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Apple has charged a commission of 15% on purchases that App Store apps in the European Union complete by linking out since 1 October 2026. Only in the US is the link free today.", "card_text": "In Europe, a link out still pays Apple 15%", "year": "2026", "market": "EU", "source": "Apple Newsroom (18 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/08/apple-announces-changes-for-apps-in-the-european-union/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Omdia and FastSpring surveyed 110 senior executives at games companies in the US and Europe between April and June 2026 and found 59% already running a web shop, against 57% a year earlier. Of those without one, 91% say they will launch and 67% within twelve months, and a year ago 60% said the same about the following twelve months. FastSpring sells the payments the survey measures, and every company sampled makes mobile games, 91% of them above $10 million in revenue.", "card_text": "The plans run far ahead of the moves, and a payments vendor is counting", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Omdia and FastSpring, D2C game monetization survey, via GameDev Reports (29 September 2026)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/omdia-and-fastspring-d2c-game-monetization", "source_slug": "gamedev-reports" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "23 October 2026, when Stillfront reports its third quarter. It will show whether the share of bookings through its own payment platforms keeps climbing past 46%.", "card_text": "Stillfront's third-quarter report", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Stillfront Group, interim report for the second quarter of 2026 (24 July 2026)", "link": "https://www.stillfront.com/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/10/report-interim-report-q2-2026-260724.pdf", "source_slug": "stillfront-group" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Early November 2026, when Playtika usually reports its third quarter. Its direct sales fell 1.7% from the first quarter to the second, the first fall in a year. The results add the next point to this chart.", "card_text": "Playtika's third-quarter results", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Playtika Holding Corp., second-quarter 2026 results (6 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828016/000182801626000046/a2026q2ex991-earningsrelea.htm", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "13 November 2026, when Epic's brief is due in Apple's appeal to the Supreme Court, which agreed on 30 June 2026 to hear part of it. A win for Apple could let it charge for sales made through a link out in the US again.", "card_text": "Epic answers Apple in the Supreme Court", "year": "2026", "market": "US", "source": "Supreme Court of the United States, docket No. 25-1311 (read 30 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/25-1311.html", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "instant-games-outside-the-app-stores", "name": "Instant games are growing outside the app stores", "stage": "Emerging", "category": "Platform & distribution", "horizon": "h3", "horizon_group": null, "horizon_line": "Cheap, social games that need no store. China shows the scale, the West the start.", "markets": [ "CN", "Global", "US" ], "what_it_is": "Games that run inside WeChat and Douyin, with nothing to install, earned 53.535 billion yuan in China in 2025, up 34.39% in a market that grew 7.68%. WeChat says more than 500 million people play them each month. Outside China the same idea is spreading through Poki's browser games, YouTube's Playables and Discord's Activities. Apple cut its fee on purchases in such games to 15% in 2025, and many Chinese hits still reach other countries as ordinary store apps.", "why_it_matters": "A mini game costs little to make, needs no download, and can pay its developer more than China's Android stores do. That let tiny teams reach huge audiences. In China, big publishers and their advertising budgets have since followed them in.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Behind the Numbers: China's Big Market for Mini Games", "link": "https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1015581", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "Is the Overseas Expansion of Mini-Games Turning into a Big Companies' Game?", "link": "https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3471991302756484", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "Inside Poki's vision for the future of browser gaming", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/inside-pokis-vision-for-the-future-of-browser-gaming/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Sep 2026", "where_to_follow": "CADPA Game Working Committee reports, the WeChat Mini Game Developers Conference, 36Kr, GameDev Reports, PocketGamer.biz", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "What China's mini games earned, billion yuan", "series_note": "Mini-game revenue more than doubled from 2023 to 2025, and the first half of 2026 was up 36.01% on a year earlier.", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "Games that run inside WeChat and Douyin, with nothing to install, earned ", { "text": "53.535 billion yuan in China in 2025", "href": "https://www.cadpa.org.cn/3277/202512/41770.html" }, ", up 34.39% in a market that grew 7.68%. WeChat says more than 500 million people play them each month. Outside China the same idea is spreading through Poki's browser games, YouTube's Playables and Discord's Activities. Apple cut its fee on purchases in such games to 15% in 2025, and many Chinese hits still reach other countries as ordinary store apps." ], "series_format": "{n} billion yuan", "claims": [ { "section": "Definition", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "A mini game is a self-contained game built with web technologies such as HTML5 or JavaScript and distributed inside a larger app, rather than installed on its own. Apple's App Store has supported mini apps and games since 2017.", "card_text": "What a mini game is", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Apple Developer, Mini Apps Partner Program (read 30 September 2026)", "link": "https://developer.apple.com/programs/mini-apps-partner/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What mini-program games earned in China in 2023. The committee's report gives 20 billion yuan, up 300% on 2022.", "card_text": "20", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "CADPA Game Working Committee, 2023 China Game Industry Report (15 December 2023)", "link": "https://www.cgigc.com.cn/details.html?id=08dc70a3-deb3-4af9-8043-8b92d80fff2c&tp=report", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What mini-program games earned in China in 2024. The committee's report gives 39.836 billion yuan, up 99.18%, while the whole domestic market grew 7.53%.", "card_text": "39.836", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "CADPA Game Working Committee, 2024 China Game Industry Report (17 January 2025)", "link": "https://www.cadpa.org.cn/3277/202501/41718.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What mini-program games earned in China in 2025. The committee's report gives 53.535 billion yuan, up 34.39%, while the whole domestic market grew 7.68%. In-app purchases brought in 68.11% and advertising 31.89%.", "card_text": "53.535", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "CADPA Game Working Committee, 2025 China Game Industry Report (19 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.cadpa.org.cn/3277/202512/41770.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "What mini games earned in China in the first half of 2026, up 36.01% while the whole domestic market grew 12.17%. The committee has not posted this report on its own sites, so the figure is as GameDev Reports relays it.", "card_text": "31.66", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "CADPA Game Working Committee, January to June 2026 report, relayed by GameDev Reports (19 August 2026)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/cadpa-the-chinese-gaming-market-in", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee", "partial": true }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "WeChat, Tencent's messaging app, debuts its first mini game, Tiao yi tiao. Mini games are played inside the app, with no separate download or installation.", "card_text": "WeChat launches its first mini game", "year": "2017", "market": "", "source": "Sixth Tone, Luo Yahan (26 July 2024)", "link": "https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1015581", "source_slug": "sixth-tone" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Sheep a Sheep, a tile-matching game playable only inside WeChat, takes off in September 2022. Made by a four-person team on a reported budget of 500,000 yuan, it reaches 213 million monthly players and takes in over 100 million yuan that year.", "card_text": "A four-person studio's WeChat game reaches 213 million players", "year": "2022", "market": "", "source": "Sixth Tone, Luo Yahan (26 July 2024)", "link": "https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1015581", "source_slug": "sixth-tone" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "YouTube launches Playables, free games played directly on YouTube on the web and in its phone apps, starting with more than 75 titles such as Angry Birds Showdown and Cut the Rope. It widens access to more users over the following months.", "card_text": "YouTube puts more than 75 games inside its app", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "YouTube Official Blog (28 May 2024)", "link": "https://blog.youtube/news-and-events/youtube-playables/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Discord invites outside game developers to build Activities, games played inside Discord, with its Embedded App SDK. Discord says its apps are used by over 25% of its monthly active users.", "card_text": "Discord asks developers to build games into its chats", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Discord, Ben Shanken (26 September 2024)", "link": "https://discord.com/blog/build-where-the-world-plays", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "As of August 2025, WeChat's mini games have 571 million monthly players and Douyin's 171 million, according to a report by Meridian Play and JINKE. Douyin grows faster in the number of games buying advertising, up 70%.", "card_text": "Douyin's mini games reach 171 million monthly players", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GameDev Reports, Dmitriy Byshonkov (20 July 2026)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/meridian-play-and-jinke-chinas-wechat", "source_slug": "gamedev-reports" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Apple opens its Mini Apps Partner Program for apps that host mini apps and games built with web technologies such as HTML5 and JavaScript. Hosts that join pay a reduced commission of 15% on qualifying in-app purchases, if they support Apple's age range and commerce tools.", "card_text": "Apple cuts its fee to 15% for games inside other apps", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Apple Developer News (13 November 2025)", "link": "https://developer.apple.com/news/?id=xcz1s7cz", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "WeChat announces that its mini programs will support virtual payments on iOS, with Apple's commission cut to 15%. Apple's rules had long restricted such payments on iPhones.", "card_text": "WeChat brings payments to its mini programs on iPhone", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "TechNode (15 November 2025)", "link": "https://technode.com/2025/11/15/wechat-to-support-virtual-payments-on-ios-apple-cuts-commission-to-15/", "source_slug": "technode" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Poki, a site for free browser games, says 625 million people played on it in 2025, including 100 million every month, across 11.1 billion plays. The figures are the company's own.", "card_text": "Poki counts 625 million players in a year", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Poki (3 December 2025)", "link": "https://poki.com/blog/2025-at-poki-a-year-in-review", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "YouTube begins a closed beta of Playables Builder, which uses Gemini 3 to turn short text, image or video prompts into small games. It is open to approved creators in the US and three other countries.", "card_text": "YouTube tests an AI tool that turns prompts into games", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "PocketGamer.biz, Isa Muhammad (22 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/youtube-launches-ai-powered-playables-builder-to-let-creators-make-games/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "At its developer conference, WeChat says its mini games have passed 500 million monthly players and 500,000 developers, more than 80% of them teams of fewer than 30 people. More than 80 games passed one million daily players in the past year. These are WeChat's own figures.", "card_text": "WeChat says 500 million people play its mini games each month", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "36Kr, relaying DataEye (27 May 2026)", "link": "https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3827142657888902", "source_slug": "36kr" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "YouTube widens Playables to users in more than 50 markets. Developers can still reach it only through early access, by submitting games through an interest form.", "card_text": "YouTube Playables reaches more than 50 markets", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PocketGamer.biz, Isa Muhammad (28 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/youtube-playables-expands-to-more-than-50-markets-including-the-eu-and-nordics/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "China's Android phone makers take 50% of what players spend in games. Developers can keep as much as 70% on WeChat, and Douyin lets some preferred partners keep as much as 90%, reports Sixth Tone, a state-owned outlet.", "card_text": "Developers keep more than China's Android stores allow", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Sixth Tone, Luo Yahan (26 July 2024)", "link": "https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1015581", "source_slug": "sixth-tone" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "According to 36Kr, 70% of China's listed game companies have started investing in mini games, and Century Huatong and 37 Interactive Entertainment make two of the biggest. Supercell has ported Brawl Stars and Clash Royale to WeChat.", "card_text": "China's big publishers now make mini games", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "36Kr, relaying Youkelili (16 October 2025)", "link": "https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3511686181510280", "source_slug": "36kr" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Under WeChat's 2026 terms, developers in Apple's program receive 70% of what iPhone players spend through Apple's in-app purchase. Until 31 December 2026 WeChat waives its own fee, which it estimates leaves developers about 88%.", "card_text": "Apple takes a share of WeChat's games on iPhone", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "WeChat Open Documentation, 2026 mini game payment incentive policy (read 30 September 2026)", "link": "https://developers.weixin.qq.com/minigame/introduction/commercialization/guide/virtual-payment.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "In a survey commissioned by Poki, which runs a browser games site, 53% of the companies asked plan to port their mobile games to browsers within a year. 62% of the players surveyed said they had downloaded or bought a game after first playing it on the web.", "card_text": "Mobile studios plan browser versions", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PocketGamer.biz, Aaron Astle (25 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/report-53-plan-to-port-mobile-games-to-browser-in-next-12-months/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "China's official report gives 53.535 billion yuan for mini-program games beside 257.076 billion yuan for mobile games in 2025, and does not say whether one includes the other. The two cannot safely be added, and the mini-game growth cannot be read as extra to mobile.", "card_text": "The mini-game figure may sit inside the mobile one", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "CADPA Game Working Committee, 2025 China Game Industry Report (19 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.cadpa.org.cn/3277/202512/41770.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Many studios taking Chinese mini games abroad wrap them as native apps for Google Play and the App Store, which blurs the line between mini games and mobile games, 36Kr reports. Whiteout Survival, the overseas version of Century Huatong's Endless Winter, has ranked first in revenue among Chinese mobile games abroad.", "card_text": "The hits reach other countries through the app stores", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "36Kr, Lan Jie (18 September 2025)", "link": "https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3471991302756484", "source_slug": "36kr" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Small teams make up 80% of the mini-game market, but a creative game that once drew hundreds of thousands of players without paid promotion now struggles to pass 100,000. 37 Interactive Entertainment spent 5.36 billion yuan on internet traffic in the first half of 2024.", "card_text": "Small teams find it harder to break through", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "36Kr, relaying Youkelili (16 October 2025)", "link": "https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3511686181510280", "source_slug": "36kr" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "WeChat pays several of its 2026 bonuses for mini-game developers as credit that can only be spent on advertising. A game's base bonus, 10% of its monthly net revenue, is unlocked by spending on ads, and from 22 September 2026 a new game's launch bonus can only be spent advertising that game.", "card_text": "WeChat pays its bonuses in advertising", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "WeChat Open Documentation, 2026 mini game payment incentive policy (read 30 September 2026)", "link": "https://developers.weixin.qq.com/minigame/introduction/commercialization/guide/virtual-payment.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The committee's report on 2026, when it usually publishes in mid-December, as it did on 19 December 2025. Its outlook for 2026 said mini games would keep growing fast, and the report will add a full-year point to this chart.", "card_text": "China's 2026 game industry report", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "CADPA Game Working Committee, 2025 China Game Industry Report (19 December 2025)", "link": "https://www.cadpa.org.cn/3277/202512/41770.html", "source_slug": "gpc-cadpa-game-working-committee" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "31 December 2026, when WeChat's waiver of its own fee on iPhone purchases ends. Unless it is extended, developers in Apple's program go from about 88% of what players spend to 70%.", "card_text": "WeChat's iPhone fee waiver ends", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "WeChat Open Documentation, 2026 mini game payment incentive policy (read 30 September 2026)", "link": "https://developers.weixin.qq.com/minigame/introduction/commercialization/guide/virtual-payment.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Any player or revenue figure YouTube publishes for Playables, or Playables Builder opening beyond its closed beta. The expansion to more than 50 markets in September 2026 came with no player count.", "card_text": "A first player count for YouTube Playables", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "PocketGamer.biz, Isa Muhammad (28 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/youtube-playables-expands-to-more-than-50-markets-including-the-eu-and-nordics/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" } ] }, { "slug": "governments-fund-games-as-culture-and-industry", "name": "Governments are paying for games as culture and industry", "stage": "Dominant", "category": "Geography & power", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "makes-room", "horizon_line": "Grants reach new teams, while credits mostly reward the biggest productions.", "markets": [ "BR", "CA", "CN", "DE", "FR", "Global", "IN", "IT", "MENA", "UK" ], "what_it_is": "Governments pay for games in two ways. Tax credits return a share of what studios spend: 34% in the UK, 30% in France, 25% in British Columbia. In the UK, claims over £500,000 took 82% of relief in 2024-25. Grants pay small teams up front: São Paulo offers R$300,000 for a prototype, and Britain doubled its Games Fund in 2026. Germany and India have added money since 2020, and Brazil opened its culture funding to games in 2024.", "why_it_matters": "Public money now decides where many games are made. Tax credits reward the biggest productions and are hard to cut once studios depend on them. Grants are small but reach new teams. The mix a country chooses shapes whose games get made there.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "How subsidies helped Montreal become \"the Hollywood of video games\"", "link": "https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/01/04/1068916102/how-subsidies-helped-montreal-become-the-hollywood-of-video-games", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "Creative industries statistics commentary: September 2026", "link": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/creative-industries-statistics-september-2026/creative-industries-statistics-commentary-september-2026", "type": "Data", "format": "" }, { "source": "Evaluation of the UK Games Fund: Final report", "link": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/evaluation-of-the-uk-games-fund-final-report/evaluation-of-the-uk-games-fund-final-report", "type": "Research", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Oct 2026", "where_to_follow": "HM Revenue and Customs creative industries statistics each September, the CNC, GamesWirtschaft on German games funding, ANCINE's regulatory agenda, Ukie and TIGA", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "UK games tax relief paid each financial year, £ millions", "series_note": "Relief paid to games companies rose every year, from £63 million in 2014-15 to £395 million in 2024-25, the first year with large claims under the new 34% credit.", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "Governments pay for games in two ways. Tax credits return a share of what studios spend: ", { "text": "34% in the UK", "href": "https://www.bfi.org.uk/apply-british-certification-expenditure-credits/about-uk-creative-industry-expenditure-credits" }, ", ", { "text": "30% in France", "href": "https://www.cnc.fr/professionnels/aides-et-financements/jeu-video/credit-dimpot-jeu-video_121078" }, ", ", { "text": "25% in British Columbia", "href": "https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2025FIN0028-000646" }, ". In the UK, ", { "text": "claims over £500,000 took 82%", "href": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/creative-industries-statistics-september-2026/creative-industries-statistics-commentary-september-2026" }, " of relief in 2024-25. Grants pay small teams up front: ", { "text": "São Paulo", "href": "https://www.cultura.sp.gov.br/sec_cultura/Arquivo_de_Editais/Editais_Fomento_Cultsp/Fomento_CultSP_2026/desenvolvimento_ou_finalizacao_e_publicacao_de_jogos_eletronicos_2026/" }, " offers R$300,000 for a prototype, and Britain doubled its ", { "text": "Games Fund", "href": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/government-pledges-285m-for-uk-games-fund-to-boost-industry/" }, " in 2026. ", { "text": "Germany", "href": "https://www.heise.de/en/news/New-call-Research-Ministry-steps-up-games-funding-10493343.html" }, " and ", { "text": "India", "href": "https://www.pib.gov.in/PressNoteDetails.aspx?NoteId=156068&ModuleId=3®=3&lang=2" }, " have added money since 2020, and ", { "text": "Brazil", "href": "https://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2023-2026/2024/lei/l14852.htm" }, " opened its culture funding to games in 2024." ], "series_format": "£{n} million", "claims": [ { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "UK games tax relief paid for the financial year 2014-15, as HM Revenue and Customs records it by the year each company's accounting period ended.", "card_text": "63", "year": "2015", "market": "UK", "source": "HM Revenue and Customs, Creative industries statistics (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/creative-industries-statistics-september-2026", "source_slug": "", "period": "2014-15" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "UK games tax relief paid for the financial year 2015-16, as HM Revenue and Customs records it by the year each company's accounting period ended.", "card_text": "90", "year": "2016", "market": "UK", "source": "HM Revenue and Customs, Creative industries statistics (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/creative-industries-statistics-september-2026", "source_slug": "", "period": "2015-16" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "UK games tax relief paid for the financial year 2016-17, as HM Revenue and Customs records it by the year each company's accounting period ended.", "card_text": "101", "year": "2017", "market": "UK", "source": "HM Revenue and Customs, Creative industries statistics (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/creative-industries-statistics-september-2026", "source_slug": "", "period": "2016-17" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "UK games tax relief paid for the financial year 2017-18, as HM Revenue and Customs records it by the year each company's accounting period ended.", "card_text": "124", "year": "2018", "market": "UK", "source": "HM Revenue and Customs, Creative industries statistics (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/creative-industries-statistics-september-2026", "source_slug": "", "period": "2017-18" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "UK games tax relief paid for the financial year 2018-19, as HM Revenue and Customs records it by the year each company's accounting period ended.", "card_text": "153", "year": "2019", "market": "UK", "source": "HM Revenue and Customs, Creative industries statistics (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/creative-industries-statistics-september-2026", "source_slug": "", "period": "2018-19" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "UK games tax relief paid for the financial year 2019-20, as HM Revenue and Customs records it by the year each company's accounting period ended.", "card_text": "192", "year": "2020", "market": "UK", "source": "HM Revenue and Customs, Creative industries statistics (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/creative-industries-statistics-september-2026", "source_slug": "", "period": "2019-20" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "UK games tax relief paid for the financial year 2020-21, as HM Revenue and Customs records it by the year each company's accounting period ended.", "card_text": "217", "year": "2021", "market": "UK", "source": "HM Revenue and Customs, Creative industries statistics (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/creative-industries-statistics-september-2026", "source_slug": "", "period": "2020-21" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "UK games tax relief paid for the financial year 2021-22, as HM Revenue and Customs records it by the year each company's accounting period ended.", "card_text": "280", "year": "2022", "market": "UK", "source": "HM Revenue and Customs, Creative industries statistics (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/creative-industries-statistics-september-2026", "source_slug": "", "period": "2021-22" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "UK games tax relief paid for the financial year 2022-23, as HM Revenue and Customs records it by the year each company's accounting period ended.", "card_text": "322", "year": "2023", "market": "UK", "source": "HM Revenue and Customs, Creative industries statistics (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/creative-industries-statistics-september-2026", "source_slug": "", "period": "2022-23" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "UK games tax relief paid for the financial year 2023-24, as HM Revenue and Customs records it by the year each company's accounting period ended. The total includes £10 million claimed under the new 34% expenditure credit. HMRC marks the year provisional.", "card_text": "336", "year": "2024", "market": "UK", "source": "HM Revenue and Customs, Creative industries statistics (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/creative-industries-statistics-september-2026", "source_slug": "", "period": "2023-24" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "UK games tax relief paid for the financial year 2024-25, as HM Revenue and Customs records it by the year each company's accounting period ended. The total includes £116 million claimed under the new 34% expenditure credit. HMRC marks the year provisional and has raised it to allow for claims not yet received.", "card_text": "395", "year": "2025", "market": "UK", "source": "HM Revenue and Customs, Creative industries statistics (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/creative-industries-statistics-september-2026", "source_slug": "", "period": "2024-25" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "After a subsidy deal that brought Ubisoft to Montreal drew protests of favoritism from other companies, Quebec creates a refundable tax credit for multimedia titles open to all. It pays up to 37.5% of eligible wages for a title available in French and up to 30% for one that is not.", "card_text": "Quebec creates a tax credit for multimedia studios", "year": "1996", "market": "", "source": "NPR Planet Money, Corey Bridges (4 January 2022)", "link": "https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/01/04/1068916102/how-subsidies-helped-montreal-become-the-hollywood-of-video-games", "source_slug": "npr" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A reform that takes effect on 10 August 2017 raises France's tax credit for making games from 20% to 30% of eligible spending and doubles the yearly cap per company from €3 million to €6 million. The credit comes from a 2007 law.", "card_text": "France raises its games tax credit to 30%", "year": "2017", "market": "FR", "source": "Direction générale des Entreprises (24 January 2024)", "link": "https://www.entreprises.gouv.fr/espace-entreprises/beneficier-d-une-aide-ou-d-un-credit-d-impot/credit-dimpot-jeux-video", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Savvy Games Group, owned by Saudi Arabia's sovereign Public Investment Fund, announces a plan to invest 142 billion riyals, about $38 billion. It aims for 250 games companies in the kingdom, 39,000 jobs and a games sector adding 50 billion riyals to GDP by 2030.", "card_text": "Saudi Arabia's state games company plans to invest $38 billion", "year": "2022", "market": "MENA", "source": "The National, Amr Mostafa (29 September 2022)", "link": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/technology/2022/09/29/saudi-arabias-savvy-games-group-launches-38bn-investment-strategy/", "source_slug": "the-national" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Video Games Expenditure Credit replaces Video Games Tax Relief from 1 January 2024. It pays 34% of qualifying spending, and a game must pass a cultural test run by the British Film Institute to count as British. The old relief ends on 1 April 2027.", "card_text": "Britain replaces its games tax relief with a 34% credit", "year": "2024", "market": "UK", "source": "British Film Institute, UK creative industry expenditure credits (read 30 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.bfi.org.uk/apply-british-certification-expenditure-credits/about-uk-creative-industry-expenditure-credits", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Law 14.852, the Marco Legal dos Games (games legal framework), signed on 3 May 2024, makes game development a cultural segment under the Lei Rouanet, Brazil's culture incentive law. It also opens the Lei do Audiovisual, the country's film incentive law, to game studios.", "card_text": "Brazil's games law opens its culture funding to games", "year": "2024", "market": "BR", "source": "Law 14852 (Brazil)", "link": "https://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2023-2026/2024/lei/l14852.htm", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The first campus of the Indian Institute of Creative Technologies, the national center of excellence for animation, visual effects, gaming, comics and extended reality, opens in Mumbai on 18 July 2025 with an initial budget of 400 crore rupees. In September, by the central government's account, Maharashtra approves a state policy for the same sectors with a financial plan of 3,268 crore rupees.", "card_text": "India opens a national institute for games with 400 crore rupees", "year": "2025", "market": "IN", "source": "Press Information Bureau, Powering Creative Technology (18 November 2025)", "link": "https://www.pib.gov.in/PressNoteDetails.aspx?NoteId=156068&ModuleId=3®=3&lang=2", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "British Columbia makes its interactive digital media tax credit permanent and raises it from 17.5% to 25% of wages from 1 September 2025. The province lists Microsoft, Nintendo, EA, Take-Two and CD Projekt Red among the large developers working there, and EA's studios welcome the change.", "card_text": "British Columbia raises its games credit to 25%", "year": "2025", "market": "CA", "source": "Government of British Columbia (7 July 2025)", "link": "https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2025FIN0028-000646", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "After almost two years in which Germany's federal games fund was halted or restricted, the research ministry, in charge since May 2025, reopens it from 1 August to projects of any length and quadruples the largest grant to €8 million. The government plans €88 million for 2025 and about €125 million for 2026.", "card_text": "Germany reopens its games fund and quadruples the largest grant", "year": "2025", "market": "DE", "source": "heise online, Stefan Krempl (18 July 2025)", "link": "https://www.heise.de/en/news/New-call-Research-Ministry-steps-up-games-funding-10493343.html", "source_slug": "heise-online" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The outline of China's 15th Five-Year Plan, its economic roadmap for 2026 to 2030, calls for guiding and regulating the 'healthy development' of online games in its chapter on the culture industry. Another chapter asks for quality online games to be taken overseas, alongside online literature, film and animation.", "card_text": "China's five-year plan names online games in its culture and export goals", "year": "2026", "market": "CN", "source": "Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan (China), via Xinhua (13 March 2026)", "link": "https://www.news.cn/politics/20260313/085af5de5a4b4268aa7d87d90817df2f/c.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Brazil's Ministry of Culture sets new rules for projects raising money under the Lei Rouanet. A game project may seek up to R$1.5 million, and a project to develop a game up to R$400,000.", "card_text": "Brazil caps a game's development project at R$400,000", "year": "2026", "market": "BR", "source": "Normative Instruction 29, Ministry of Culture (Brazil) (29 January 2026)", "link": "https://www.gov.br/cultura/pt-br/acesso-a-informacao/legislacao-e-normativas/instrucao-normativa-minc-no-29-de-29-de-janeiro-de-2026", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "São Paulo state's 2026 games call, run through its culture program ProAC, offers R$6 million: R$300,000 each to ten teams building a game up to a playable prototype and to ten finishing and publishing one. It draws 217 applications, 174 of them for development.", "card_text": "São Paulo draws 217 applications for 20 game grants", "year": "2026", "market": "BR", "source": "Secretaria da Cultura, Economia e Indústria Criativas de São Paulo, Edital ProAC 05/2026 (4 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.cultura.sp.gov.br/sec_cultura/Arquivo_de_Editais/Editais_Fomento_Cultsp/Fomento_CultSP_2026/desenvolvimento_ou_finalizacao_e_publicacao_de_jogos_eletronicos_2026/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The UK government puts £28.5 million into the UK Games Fund, double its previous support, with grants of up to £20,000 for new companies, up to £100,000 for prototypes and up to £250,000 to finish and scale a game.", "card_text": "Britain doubles its grant fund for small studios", "year": "2026", "market": "UK", "source": "PocketGamer.biz, Craig Chapple (13 April 2026)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/government-pledges-285m-for-uk-games-fund-to-boost-industry/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Canada Media Fund reports on 28 September 2026 that it invested $338.8 million in 1,248 audiovisual and interactive digital media projects in the 2025-26 financial year, with $6.7 million more in 103 industry initiatives, and that this drove $1.93 billion of industry activity and nearly 17,000 full-time equivalent jobs. The fund counts games inside interactive digital media and its release does not give a games-only figure, so the Canadian total on this page is federal grant money of which games are an unstated share.", "card_text": "Canada's media fund reports its largest year, games folded in", "year": "2026", "market": "CA", "source": "Canada Media Fund, Ripple Effect annual report 2025-26 (28 September 2026)", "link": "https://cmf-fmc.ca/news/cmf-investments-spur-record-1-93b-in-activity-for-canadian-screen-sector-in-2025-2026-annual-report/", "source_slug": "canada-media-fund" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Germany's games trade body, game, says the federal fund's €50 million came to less than a quarter of the average per head in the countries a study it commissioned from Nordicity compared, and that Canada, France and the UK use tax credits that cannot run out as a fund can. It credits the fund with a 52% rise in the number of games companies in Germany from 2020 to 2024.", "card_text": "Countries compete on how much they pay", "year": "2024", "market": "DE", "source": "game, annual report of the German games industry 2024 (12 August 2024)", "link": "https://www.game.de/en/guides/annual-report-of-the-german-games-industry-2024/03-2-games-funding/", "source_slug": "game-verband" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Claims over £500,000 took 82% of the £395 million of games relief HM Revenue and Customs paid for 2024-25. The 45 claims over £2 million took £219 million between them. The 260 claims under £5,000 shared less than £1 million.", "card_text": "Most of Britain's games relief goes to the biggest claims", "year": "2025", "market": "UK", "source": "HM Revenue and Customs, Creative industries statistics (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/creative-industries-statistics-september-2026", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Games received €10.9 million of Italy's audiovisual production tax credit in 2025, 2.7% of the total, up from €7.6 million in 2024. The culture ministry's evaluation finds the credit is the main public support games studios can actually reach, but that it does less to build up the studios' own capital than to cover production costs.", "card_text": "In Italy, games take a small share of a large credit", "year": "2025", "market": "IT", "source": "Ministry of Culture (Italy), impact assessment of the cinema and audiovisual law for 2025 (29 September 2026)", "link": "https://cinema.cultura.gov.it/wp-content/uploads/dlm_uploads/2026/09/Relazione-annuale-2026-DEF.pdf", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "An evaluation by Alma Economics for the culture department, which funds the program, estimates that the UK Games Fund's Content Fund, which gave 35 companies grants of £50,000 to £150,000 from 2023, will return benefits of about 5.1 times its cost. The authors call the estimate uncertain because many of the games have only begun to sell. The department cites it as a reason for the £30 million Games Growth Package.", "card_text": "Britain's own evaluation finds its small grants pay back", "year": "2026", "market": "UK", "source": "Department for Culture, Media and Sport, Alma Economics (16 July 2026)", "link": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/evaluation-of-the-uk-games-fund-final-report/evaluation-of-the-uk-games-fund-final-report", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Quebec tried to cut its multimedia credit by 20% in 2014 to balance its budget, and backed down after studios, Ubisoft among them, threatened to leave. Critics cited by NPR say the credit mainly helps foreign companies that open satellite offices. Quebec's government says the sector brings in more tax than the credit costs.", "card_text": "Once studios depend on a credit, it is hard to cut", "year": "2014", "market": "", "source": "NPR Planet Money, Corey Bridges (4 January 2022)", "link": "https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/01/04/1068916102/how-subsidies-helped-montreal-become-the-hollywood-of-video-games", "source_slug": "npr" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "In 2019 the tax think tank TaxWatch found that Rockstar North, the Edinburgh studio behind Grand Theft Auto, had claimed about £42 million, 19% of all UK games relief paid until then, while paying no UK corporation tax for nearly a decade. Its games qualified as culturally British through the BFI's test.", "card_text": "A global hit can pass as culturally British", "year": "2019", "market": "UK", "source": "PC Gamer, Fraser Brown (29 July 2019)", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/rockstar-north-has-received-pound42-million-in-tax-relief-according-to-think-tank/", "source_slug": "pc-gamer" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "By the opening of gamescom in August 2026, Germany's fund had applications for only about €40 million of the €120 million available. GamesWirtschaft reports that the country lacks large studios able to take on substantial sums. The finance minister brought no plan for the games tax break the coalition had promised.", "card_text": "Germany cannot give its fund away", "year": "2026", "market": "DE", "source": "GamesWirtschaft (27 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.gameswirtschaft.de/gamescom/gamescom-eroeffnung-2026-klingbeil-zocker-steuer-260826/", "source_slug": "gameswirtschaft" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Games studios told Italy's evaluators that the credit's cultural requirements and procedures do not always fit how games are made or how long they take. Most Italian studios are small or micro companies, and for them even a procedure judged not especially heavy is a real burden.", "card_text": "Culture tests fit games badly", "year": "2026", "market": "IT", "source": "Ministry of Culture (Italy), impact assessment of the cinema and audiovisual law for 2025 (29 September 2026)", "link": "https://cinema.cultura.gov.it/wp-content/uploads/dlm_uploads/2026/09/Relazione-annuale-2026-DEF.pdf", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The first half of 2027, when ANCINE, Brazil's film agency, expects to finish rules for how publicly financed games projects are approved, run and accounted for. Its agenda says the lack of such rules limits games' access to the support that already exists.", "card_text": "Brazil's rules for public money in games", "year": "2027", "market": "BR", "source": "ANCINE, Agenda Regulatória 2026/2027 (30 March 2026)", "link": "https://www.gov.br/ancine/pt-br/assuntos/atribuicoes-ancine/regulacao/AR202627VF.pdf/@@display-file/file", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Gamescom in August 2027, where GamesWirtschaft expects the games tax break Germany's coalition promised to come back up. The ministers plan €120 million for the fund in the 2027 budget, and the research minister wants the largest grant raised from €8 million to €20 million, which needs talks with the EU.", "card_text": "Germany's promised games tax break", "year": "2027", "market": "DE", "source": "GamesWirtschaft (27 August 2026)", "link": "https://www.gameswirtschaft.de/gamescom/gamescom-eroeffnung-2026-klingbeil-zocker-steuer-260826/", "source_slug": "gameswirtschaft" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "1 April 2027, when every UK game must claim the 34% expenditure credit and the old relief closes. HM Revenue and Customs plans its next figures for summer 2027, which will add the 2025-26 year to this chart.", "card_text": "Britain's old games relief closes", "year": "2027", "market": "UK", "source": "HM Revenue and Customs, Creative industries statistics (17 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/creative-industries-statistics-september-2026", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "biggest-companies-take-a-growing-share", "name": "The biggest games companies are taking a growing share of the money", "stage": "Emerging", "category": "Money & business model", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "prolongs-h1", "horizon_line": "The largest firms pulling ahead, mostly by growing rather than buying.", "markets": [ "CN", "Global", "JP", "US" ], "what_it_is": "Joost van Dreunen, tracking 153 companies, finds the ten largest took 56% of publishing revenue in 2025, up from 45% in 2020. Since 2020 they grew 51% while the rest, together, did not grow. Buying studios explains about a sixth of the rise. Matthew Ball, before he joined Xbox, found game makers outside China gained $1 billion of the $24 billion added since 2020. On PC in Western markets, though, games outside the top 20 now earn most of the money.", "why_it_matters": "Ten companies now take more than half of what players spend with game publishers, and since 2020 the rest of the industry has stopped growing. Which companies are large decides which games get funded and who survives the next downturn.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Oligopoly Go!", "link": "https://superjoost.substack.com/p/oligopoly-go", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "Analysts say PC gaming is now the one platform where more than 50% of revenue comes from games outside the top 20", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/gaming-industry/analysts-say-pc-gaming-is-now-the-one-platform-where-more-than-50-percent-of-revenue-comes-from-games-outside-the-top-20/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "Epyllion's State of Video Gaming in 2026", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/s/Gaming-2026_v425-COMPRESSED.pdf", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Oct 2026", "where_to_follow": "SuperJoost Playlist, Matthew Ball's yearly State of Video Gaming, Newzoo's PC and console report, Sensor Tower VGI, Sensor Tower's State of Mobile", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "The ten largest game publishers' share of publishing revenue, in Joost van Dreunen's panel of 153 companies", "series_note": "The ten largest publishers' share fell from 65% in 2010 to 45% in 2020, as mobile games and Steam brought in thousands of new companies, then climbed back to 56% in 2025.", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ { "text": "Joost van Dreunen", "href": "https://superjoost.substack.com/p/oligopoly-go" }, ", tracking 153 companies, finds the ten largest took 56% of publishing revenue in 2025, up from 45% in 2020. Since 2020 they grew 51% while the rest, together, did not grow. Buying studios explains about a sixth of the rise. ", { "text": "Matthew Ball", "href": "https://www.matthewball.co/s/Gaming-2026_v425-COMPRESSED.pdf" }, ", before he joined Xbox, found game makers outside China gained $1 billion of the $24 billion added since 2020. On PC in Western markets, though, games outside the top 20 now earn most of the money." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Definition", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "It adds up the square of every company's share of a market, so one company with all of it scores 10,000. Under the US merger guidelines restored in 2023, a market below 1,000 is unconcentrated, 1,000 to 1,800 moderately concentrated, and above 1,800 highly concentrated.", "card_text": "What is a concentration index?", "year": "", "market": "", "source": "SuperJoost Playlist, Joost van Dreunen, Methodology (read 1 October 2026)", "link": "https://superjoost.substack.com/p/methodology", "source_slug": "superjoost-playlist" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The ten largest game publishers earned a combined $27 billion of a $41 billion publishing market.", "card_text": "65%", "year": "2010", "market": "", "source": "SuperJoost Playlist, Joost van Dreunen (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://superjoost.substack.com/p/oligopoly-go", "source_slug": "superjoost-playlist", "period": "2010" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The low point, after mobile games and Steam brought thousands of new companies into the market.", "card_text": "45%", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "SuperJoost Playlist, Joost van Dreunen (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://superjoost.substack.com/p/oligopoly-go", "source_slug": "superjoost-playlist", "period": "2020" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The ten largest earned $100.3 billion of $179 billion. The figure counts the Saudi fund's purchase of EA as complete, and 2025 was the year the Switch 2 launched.", "card_text": "56%", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "SuperJoost Playlist, Joost van Dreunen (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://superjoost.substack.com/p/oligopoly-go", "source_slug": "superjoost-playlist", "period": "2025" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "In 2010 the ten largest game publishers earned a combined $27 billion of a $41 billion publishing market, on Joost van Dreunen's count across 153 companies. Half of that top ten has since been bought by others or dropped out of it.", "card_text": "The ten largest publishers take 65% of the money", "year": "2010", "market": "", "source": "SuperJoost Playlist, Joost van Dreunen (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://superjoost.substack.com/p/oligopoly-go", "source_slug": "superjoost-playlist" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Mobile was the most concentrated of the three devices in 2010, until thousands of studios followed free-to-play onto phones. Joost van Dreunen's index bottoms out at 459 in 2017, then nearly doubles to 861 by 2025, as the cost of finding players after Apple's 2021 privacy change pushed publishers toward scale.", "card_text": "Mobile publishing is at its most spread out", "year": "2017", "market": "", "source": "SuperJoost Playlist, Joost van Dreunen (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://superjoost.substack.com/p/oligopoly-go", "source_slug": "superjoost-playlist" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Mobile games and Steam had brought thousands of new companies into the market, and the ten largest publishers took 45% of publishing revenue in 2020. PC was at its least concentrated, at 561 on the index.", "card_text": "The ten largest fall to 45%, their lowest share", "year": "2020", "market": "", "source": "SuperJoost Playlist, Joost van Dreunen (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://superjoost.substack.com/p/oligopoly-go", "source_slug": "superjoost-playlist" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Video Game Insights, which sells Steam estimates, finds that the ten biggest games released on Steam in 2023 took 61% of the revenue of all games released that year, up from 43% in 2020. Baldur's Gate 3 alone took 21%. It counts sales of the games, not spending inside them.", "card_text": "The ten biggest new Steam games take 61% of new games' revenue", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower VGI, Global PC Games Market Report 2024 (January 2024)", "link": "https://app.sensortower.com/vgi/assets/reports/VGI_Global_PC_Games_Market_Report_2024.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower-vgi" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Console reaches 1,400 on Joost van Dreunen's index in 2023, the year Microsoft completed its purchase of Activision Blizzard, up from a low of 858 in 2016. It reads 1,304 in 2025.", "card_text": "Console publishing is at its most concentrated since 2008", "year": "2023", "market": "", "source": "SuperJoost Playlist, Joost van Dreunen (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://superjoost.substack.com/p/oligopoly-go", "source_slug": "superjoost-playlist" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Embracer Group announces it will separate into three listed companies: Asmodee Group, Coffee Stain & Friends and Middle-earth Enterprises & Friends.", "card_text": "Embracer says it will split into three companies", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Embracer Group (22 April 2024)", "link": "https://embracer.com/releases/embracer-group-announces-its-intention-to-transform-into-three-standalone-publicly-listed-entities-at-nasdaq-stockholm/", "source_slug": "embracer-group" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Tencent completes a €1.16 billion cash investment in Vantage Studios, the Ubisoft subsidiary built around Assassin's Creed, Far Cry and Rainbow Six, for a 26.32% economic interest.", "card_text": "Tencent buys a quarter of Ubisoft's biggest games", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Ubisoft Entertainment (21 November 2025)", "link": "https://staticctf.ubisoft.com/8aefmxkxpxwl/75tVaQDaf9A5X8N97roq4K/5fc21239bb19bfc7ee1a8599a216e1fc/Closing_press_release_21.11.25_EN.pdf", "source_slug": "ubisoft-entertainment-ir" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Chinese firms took 52% of the ten largest publishers' revenue in 2025, up from 8% in 2010, while US firms fell from 37% to 28% and Japanese firms from 44% to 11%. Tencent alone took 19% of all publishing revenue.", "card_text": "Chinese companies earn half of what the ten largest make", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "SuperJoost Playlist, Joost van Dreunen (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://superjoost.substack.com/p/oligopoly-go", "source_slug": "superjoost-playlist" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Matthew Ball, writing in April 2026 as an outside analyst, finds that the market realized by game makers outside China grew by $1 billion, or 0.9%, from 2020 to 2025, while the whole market grew by $24 billion. The rest went to Chinese players and publishers, console platform subscriptions and Roblox.", "card_text": "Ball: game makers outside China got almost none of the growth", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "Epyllion, Matthew Ball, The State of Video Gaming in 2026 (25 April 2026)", "link": "https://www.matthewball.co/s/Gaming-2026_v425-COMPRESSED.pdf", "source_slug": "matthew-ball-essays" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Sensor Tower estimates that big-budget franchises earned $3.98 billion on Steam in 2025, up from $3.13 billion in 2024. Mid-sized franchises grew to $1.23 billion, and indie franchises stayed flat at $0.64 billion.", "card_text": "Big-budget games earn more on Steam, and indie games stay flat", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "GameDev Reports, Dmitriy Byshonkov, relaying Sensor Tower (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/sensor-tower-the-premium-pcconsole", "source_slug": "gamedev-reports" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Xbox names the analyst Matthew Ball, whose report this page draws on, as its chief strategy officer on 20 May 2026. The report dates from April 2026, when he was still an outside analyst. From this point his public comments are an Xbox executive's.", "card_text": "Xbox hires Matthew Ball as chief strategy officer", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Kotaku, Ethan Gach (20 May 2026)", "link": "https://kotaku.com/xbox-taps-everyones-favorite-game-industry-chart-guy-to-lead-strategy-and-save-its-console-2000697952", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Asha Sharma, who runs Xbox, tells staff that four studios will leave Xbox and that \"it is neither possible nor desirable to own every great independent studio.\" In a typical year, she writes, \"we lost 64 cents for every dollar we invested.\"", "card_text": "Xbox says owning studios lost it money", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Xbox Wire, Asha Sharma (6 July 2026)", "link": "https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2026/07/06/resetting-xbox/", "source_slug": "xbox-wire" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Paramount completes its $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery on 6 October 2026, forming Skydance, which targets at least $6 billion in run-rate synergies within three years. Skydance then merges Paramount's and Warner Bros.' game studios into a single unit under Tony Driscoll, formerly of Epic Games, and appoints Activision's former chief executive Bobby Kotick to its board. The completion filing itself does not mention games.", "card_text": "Paramount buys Warner Bros. Discovery and folds two games arms into one", "year": "2026", "market": "US", "source": "Skydance Corporation, Exhibit 99.1 to a Form 8-K (6 October 2026), with Gies (9 October 2026) on the games unit", "link": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002041610/000110465926113913/tm2626659d7_ex99-1.htm", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Since 2010 the ten largest publishers' combined revenue rose 3.7 times, the five largest 4.2 times, and the single largest 7.4 times, from $4.5 billion to Tencent's $33.6 billion.", "card_text": "The bigger the company, the faster it grew", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "SuperJoost Playlist, Joost van Dreunen (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://superjoost.substack.com/p/oligopoly-go", "source_slug": "superjoost-playlist" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Most of the ten largest in 2025 run platforms or sit inside larger conglomerates, Joost van Dreunen finds. Only Take-Two and Century Huatong are companies that make nothing but games.", "card_text": "The largest game companies run platforms", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "SuperJoost Playlist, Joost van Dreunen (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://superjoost.substack.com/p/oligopoly-go", "source_slug": "superjoost-playlist" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The five largest console publishers take 74%, up from 62% in 2020, on Joost van Dreunen's count. In console publishing, he writes, \"there is almost no middle left.\"", "card_text": "Ten publishers take 94% of console revenue", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "SuperJoost Playlist, Joost van Dreunen (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://superjoost.substack.com/p/oligopoly-go", "source_slug": "superjoost-playlist" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Undo Microsoft's purchase of Activision Blizzard and Take-Two's of Zynga, Joost van Dreunen calculates, and the industry's 2025 index reads 539 instead of 567. The largest firms outgrowing everyone else did the rest.", "card_text": "Mergers did a sixth of it", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "SuperJoost Playlist, Joost van Dreunen (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://superjoost.substack.com/p/oligopoly-go", "source_slug": "superjoost-playlist" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Newzoo counted the 25 largest public games companies taking 80% of global games revenue in 2018, with the ten largest growing 19% that year and the next fifteen 6%. Joost van Dreunen's panel has the ten largest losing share through those years. Newzoo measures against its estimate of the whole market, so the two are not like for like.", "card_text": "Newzoo's rankings show no dip before 2020", "year": "2018", "market": "", "source": "PocketGamer.biz, Alex Forbes-Calvin, relaying Newzoo (18 April 2019)", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/newzoo-tencent-responsible-for-15-of-2018s-global-games-revenue/", "source_slug": "pocketgamer-biz" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Video Game Insights estimates that indie games took 48% of Steam's revenue from game sales in the first nine months of 2024, against 28% in 2020 and 24% in 2018. Its definition of indie includes Black Myth: Wukong and Palworld, and it leaves out spending inside games.", "card_text": "Indie games doubled their share of Steam", "year": "2024", "market": "", "source": "Sensor Tower VGI, Global Indie Games Market Report 2024 (October 2024)", "link": "https://app.sensortower.com/vgi/assets/reports/VGI_Global_Indie_Games_Market_Report_2024.pdf", "source_slug": "sensor-tower-vgi" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Newzoo finds that in Western markets, games ranked 21st or lower took 56% of PC revenue in 2025, up from 48% in 2022. Its analyst Tianyi Gu says that \"doesn't make the market unconcentrated, but it does make games below the very top more commercially relevant than before.\" Newzoo counts games, not the companies that own them.", "card_text": "On PC, games outside the top 20 now earn most of the money", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "PC Gamer, Jody Macgregor, relaying Newzoo (16 April 2026)", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/gaming-industry/analysts-say-pc-gaming-is-now-the-one-platform-where-more-than-50-percent-of-revenue-comes-from-games-outside-the-top-20/", "source_slug": "pc-gamer" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Joost van Dreunen's 2025 figures treat the Saudi Public Investment Fund's purchase of EA as complete, though it closed in 2026. 2025 was also the year the Switch 2 launched, which he notes historically spikes Nintendo's revenue.", "card_text": "The 2025 figure counts a buyout that had not closed", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "SuperJoost Playlist, Joost van Dreunen (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://superjoost.substack.com/p/oligopoly-go", "source_slug": "superjoost-playlist" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "April 2027, when Newzoo usually publishes its PC and console report. It will show whether games outside the top 20 keep gaining on PC after taking 56% of revenue in Western markets in 2025.", "card_text": "Newzoo's next PC and console report", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "PC Gamer, Jody Macgregor, relaying Newzoo (16 April 2026)", "link": "https://www.pcgamer.com/gaming-industry/analysts-say-pc-gaming-is-now-the-one-platform-where-more-than-50-percent-of-revenue-comes-from-games-outside-the-top-20/", "source_slug": "pc-gamer" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Calendar year 2027, when Embracer plans to list Fellowship Entertainment on Nasdaq Stockholm, separating the group into two listed companies.", "card_text": "Embracer lists Fellowship Entertainment", "year": "2027", "market": "", "source": "Embracer Group, Fellowship Entertainment spin-off (read 1 October 2026)", "link": "https://www.embracer.com/investors/fellowship-entertainment-spin-off/", "source_slug": "embracer-group" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Joost van Dreunen predicts that the ten largest publishers, at 56% of revenue in 2025, will take two-thirds of it by 2030. He expects AI to let more people make games, but not more of them to make money.", "card_text": "Whether the ten largest reach two-thirds by 2030", "year": "2031", "market": "", "source": "SuperJoost Playlist, Joost van Dreunen (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://superjoost.substack.com/p/oligopoly-go", "source_slug": "superjoost-playlist" } ] }, { "slug": "in-game-currency-under-eu-consumer-law", "name": "EU consumer authorities are going after how games sell currency", "stage": "Emerging", "category": "Regulation, safety & age", "horizon": "h2", "horizon_group": "rewriting-rules", "horizon_line": "This is consumer law that reaches past the store's cut of the sale to address the value of in-game currencies themselves. Nothing is compelled yet.", "markets": [ "EU" ], "what_it_is": "On 30 September 2026 the Consumer Protection Cooperation Network opened coordinated actions against nine games companies over in-game virtual currencies, naming nine games among them Minecraft, Valorant and Candy Crush Saga. Nothing is compelled yet: the Network opened a dialogue, and says national authorities may enforce if the concerns are not met. Video Games Europe and the European Game Developers Federation reject the legal classification of currencies and say the Network has not shared its legal basis.", "why_it_matters": "Most games sell a currency before they sell anything else, and the price of the thing you buy is never in money. European consumer authorities have decided that is a consumer law question, and have opened dialogues with nine publishers.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "Social media, online games and search engines", "link": "https://commission.europa.eu/topics/consumers/consumer-rights-and-complaints/enforcement-consumer-protection/coordinated-actions/social-media-online-games-and-search-engines_en", "type": "Primary", "format": "" }, { "source": "Europe's CPC targets King, Supercell, Mojang and others over virtual currencies", "link": "https://www.pocketgamer.biz/europes-cpc-targets-king-supercell-mojang-and-others-over-virtual-currencies/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" }, { "source": "Industry's response to the CPC Network's non legally binding principles on in game currencies", "link": "https://www.dataspelsbranschen.se/nyheter/industrys-response-to-the-cpc-network/", "type": "Primary", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Oct 2026", "where_to_follow": "European Commission consumer enforcement coordinated-actions register, Video Games Europe statements, the European Game Developers Federation, the Netherlands Authority for Consumers and Markets, the Norwegian Consumer Authority, GamesMarkt, PocketGamer.biz", "status_label": "Stage", "measure_label": "What is alleged", "row_label": "Who", "series_label": "", "series_note": "", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "claims": [ { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Crytek, InnoGames, King, Mojang, Plarium, PLR Worldwide Sales, Riot Games, Supercell and Ubisoft are suspected of commercial practices that may breach EU consumer law in relation to in-game virtual currencies, in Candy Crush Saga, Clash of Clans, Forge of Empires, For Honor, Gardenscapes, Hunt: Showdown 1896, Mech Arena, Minecraft and Valorant. The register names each company by its European legal entity.", "card_text": "Dialogue opened", "year": "2026", "market": "EU", "source": "European Commission, CPC coordinated actions register (read 5 October 2026)", "link": "https://commission.europa.eu/topics/consumers/consumer-rights-and-complaints/enforcement-consumer-protection/coordinated-actions/social-media-online-games-and-search-engines_en", "source_slug": "", "period": "The nine companies" }, { "section": "Status", "kind": "Event", "claim": "A coordinated action opened in early 2026 covers Call of Duty Mobile and Diablo Immortal, over in-game virtual currencies, the collection of consumer data, addictive design, preselected parental-control settings, direct exhortation to children, missing pre-contractual information and the unilateral blocking of accounts. It is a separate action from the nine above, and it is ongoing.", "card_text": "A separate action, still open", "year": "2026", "market": "EU", "source": "European Commission, CPC coordinated actions register (read 5 October 2026)", "link": "https://commission.europa.eu/topics/consumers/consumer-rights-and-complaints/enforcement-consumer-protection/coordinated-actions/social-media-online-games-and-search-engines_en", "source_slug": "", "period": "Microsoft and Activision Blizzard" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Network, led by the Netherlands Authority for Consumers and Markets and the Norwegian Consumer Authority, adopts key principles on 21 March 2025: clear pricing and pre-contractual information, no hiding the cost of in-game content, no forcing a currency purchase, respect for the right of withdrawal, and regard for consumer vulnerabilities, children in particular.", "card_text": "The CPC Network adopts key principles on in-game currencies", "year": "2025", "market": "EU", "source": "European Commission, CPC coordinated actions register (read 5 October 2026)", "link": "https://commission.europa.eu/topics/consumers/consumer-rights-and-complaints/enforcement-consumer-protection/coordinated-actions/social-media-online-games-and-search-engines_en", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "The Network opens coordinated actions against nine games companies on 30 September 2026 and publishes a Joint Statement on Stronger Consumer Protection in Video Games the same day. It says the dialogue the key principles opened with the industry had not produced satisfactory solutions, and that national authorities may take enforcement measures if its concerns are not met.", "card_text": "Nine companies are put under coordinated action", "year": "2026", "market": "EU", "source": "European Commission, CPC coordinated actions register (read 5 October 2026)", "link": "https://commission.europa.eu/topics/consumers/consumer-rights-and-complaints/enforcement-consumer-protection/coordinated-actions/social-media-online-games-and-search-engines_en", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Video Games Europe and the European Game Developers Federation say they were constructive on pricing transparency, refunds, bundles and the right of withdrawal, and that the disagreement is the classification of in-game currencies as digital representations of value. They say they asked for the legal basis in spring 2025 and have not been given it, and that they will implement the proposals once the legal uncertainty is resolved. Both are industry bodies speaking for their own members.", "card_text": "The industry disputes the legal basis, not the transparency", "year": "2026", "market": "EU", "source": "Video Games Europe and the European Game Developers Federation, joint statement via Dataspelsbranschen (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.dataspelsbranschen.se/nyheter/industrys-response-to-the-cpc-network/", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The key principles the Network is enforcing against are not themselves legally binding, and a coordinated action asks the companies to answer rather than ordering them to change. Enforcement would fall to national authorities under national law, and none has announced any. Stage is Emerging for that reason.", "card_text": "A dialogue, not a decision", "year": "2026", "market": "EU", "source": "European Commission, CPC coordinated actions register (read 5 October 2026)", "link": "https://commission.europa.eu/topics/consumers/consumer-rights-and-complaints/enforcement-consumer-protection/coordinated-actions/social-media-online-games-and-search-engines_en", "source_slug": "" } ] }, { "slug": "ai-data-centers-take-the-memory", "name": "AI data centers are taking the memory games hardware needs", "stage": "Dominant", "category": "Technology", "horizon": "h1", "horizon_group": null, "horizon_line": "The hardware half of that squeeze, priced by a market games do not control.", "markets": [ "Global", "KR", "US" ], "what_it_is": "Conventional DRAM contract prices rose about 93% in the first quarter of 2026 and have risen every quarter since, by 10% to 15% in the fourth. Suppliers are sending capacity to AI servers, so console and PC memory takes what is left, and Micron expects demand to outrun supply through 2027 and 2028. Microsoft says the memory and storage in an Xbox now cost more than two and a half times what they did, and that it sells consoles at a loss.", "why_it_matters": "Memory chips are the component of a console, handheld or graphics card whose price has moved most. AI data centers buy the same chips and will pay more for them, so games hardware now competes for supply it used to take for granted.", "further_reading": [ { "source": "AI Server Demand Sustains Memory Contract Price Increases in 4Q26, While Consumer-Side Pressure Persists, Says TrendForce", "link": "https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260930-13258.html", "type": "Primary", "format": "" }, { "source": "How a surge in memory prices will affect the games industry", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/how-a-surge-in-memory-prices-will-affect-the-games-industry", "type": "Analysis", "format": "" }, { "source": "US console hardware market at its most precarious position 'since the 80s', says Circana", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/us-console-hardware-market-at-its-most-precarious-position-since-the-80s-says-circana/", "type": "Reporting", "format": "" } ], "as_of": "Oct 2026", "where_to_follow": "TrendForce memory price releases, Circana US hardware figures, The Verge's RAM shortage coverage, ComputerBase memory reporting, Omdia component analysis", "status_label": "", "measure_label": "", "row_label": "", "series_label": "How much conventional DRAM contract prices rose each quarter, %", "series_note": "Every bar is a rise. Prices went up in all four quarters of 2026, so what a console maker pays climbed all year even as the quarterly rises got smaller. The first quarter alone was the biggest single jump in the series.", "series_type": "", "series_mark": "Q1 2026: The biggest jump", "series_target": "", "timeline_heads": true, "what_it_is_text": [ "Conventional DRAM contract prices rose about 93% in the first quarter of 2026 and have risen every quarter since, by ", { "text": "10% to 15% in the fourth", "href": "https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260930-13258.html" }, ". Suppliers are sending capacity to AI servers, so console and PC memory takes what is left, and Micron expects demand to outrun supply through 2027 and 2028. Microsoft says the memory and storage in an Xbox now cost more than two and a half times what they did, and that it sells consoles at a loss." ], "claims": [ { "section": "Definition", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "DRAM is a machine's working memory: the chips a console, PC, phone or graphics card uses to hold what it is doing right now, as distinct from storage, which keeps things when the power is off. Every console needs a fixed amount of it, so the chip price goes straight into the build cost. AI servers need the same chips, which is why the two compete for them.", "card_text": "What is DRAM?", "year": "", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, on Omdia (23 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/how-a-surge-in-memory-prices-will-affect-the-games-industry", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The lowest figure in TrendForce's count of the first quarter of 2026, published on 1 June 2026, which it put at approximately 93% to 98% quarter on quarter. The same release put the memory industry's revenue up 81% quarter on quarter, at $97 billion.", "card_text": "93", "year": "2026", "market": "Global", "source": "TrendForce's quarterly memory price releases", "link": "https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260601-13070.html", "source_slug": "", "period": "Q1 2026" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The lowest figure in TrendForce's forecast of 58% to 63% quarter on quarter, made on 1 June 2026 in the release that reported the first quarter. Supplier inventories were extremely low and new supply was going to high-capacity server memory.", "card_text": "58", "year": "2026", "market": "Global", "source": "TrendForce's quarterly memory price releases", "link": "https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260601-13070.html", "source_slug": "", "partial": true, "period": "Q2 2026" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The lowest figure in TrendForce's forecast of 13% to 18% quarter on quarter, published on 3 July 2026. It put the slowdown down to weaker consumer demand and to the higher base the earlier rises had set.", "card_text": "13", "year": "2026", "market": "Global", "source": "TrendForce's quarterly memory price releases", "link": "https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260703-13134.html", "source_slug": "", "partial": true, "period": "Q3 2026" }, { "section": "Figure", "kind": "Figure", "claim": "The lowest figure in TrendForce's forecast of 10% to 15% quarter on quarter, published on 30 September 2026 and its most recent. Suppliers were still giving advanced-process capacity to server products, leaving the market undersupplied.", "card_text": "10", "year": "2026", "market": "Global", "source": "TrendForce's quarterly memory price releases", "link": "https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260930-13258.html", "source_slug": "", "partial": true, "period": "Q4 2026" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "ComputerBase, marking what it calls a year of the memory crisis in October 2026, reports that DRAM chip prices have been climbing for more than a year, which places the start in 2025, and that the manufacturers are warning of years of shortage to come.", "card_text": "The memory crisis begins", "year": "2025", "market": "", "source": "ComputerBase (11 October 2026)", "link": "https://www.computerbase.de/news/arbeitsspeicher/ein-jahr-speicherkrise-wie-laeufts-bei-euch-beim-thema-arbeitsspeicher.99760/", "source_slug": "computerbase" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "TrendForce lifts its first-quarter 2026 forecast for conventional DRAM contract prices to a rise of 90% to 95% quarter on quarter, and says the quarterly increases for every product category will hit record highs. It expects PC DRAM prices to at least double in the quarter.", "card_text": "TrendForce raises its own forecast to a record", "year": "2026", "market": "Global", "source": "TrendForce (2 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260202-12911.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Conventional DRAM contract prices rise by approximately 93% to 98% quarter on quarter in the first quarter of 2026, taking the memory industry's revenue up 81% quarter on quarter to $97 billion. TrendForce names AI and data center demand as the cause, with cloud providers shifting from AI-specific to general-purpose servers.", "card_text": "Contract prices nearly double in a single quarter", "year": "2026", "market": "Global", "source": "TrendForce (1 June 2026)", "link": "https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260601-13070.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "James McWhirter of Omdia puts memory at at least 20% of what it costs to build a PlayStation 5, and notes that games and services are about 70% of the console business against hardware's 30%.", "card_text": "Memory is a fifth of what a PlayStation 5 costs to build", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, James McWhirter of Omdia (23 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/how-a-surge-in-memory-prices-will-affect-the-games-industry", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "TrendForce forecasts a smaller rise of 13% to 18% for the third quarter of 2026 and says record contract prices mean customers in consumer markets such as PCs and smartphones are reaching their affordability limit.", "card_text": "Consumer buyers reach their affordability limit", "year": "2026", "market": "Global", "source": "TrendForce (3 July 2026)", "link": "https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260703-13134.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "TrendForce reports that memory suppliers have begun giving customers preliminary supply guidance for 2027, and estimates that total RDIMM bit supply will grow only 15% to 20% year on year, well short of demand. It already anticipates a server memory shortage for 2027. Long-term agreements restrict what suppliers can charge some US cloud providers.", "card_text": "Suppliers tell customers 2027 supply will lag demand", "year": "2026", "market": "Global", "source": "TrendForce (9 July 2026)", "link": "https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260709-13140.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Micron, one of the three largest DRAM suppliers, expects demand to keep exceeding supply in 2027 and 2028. SpazioGames reports it as fresh cost pressure on Xbox Project Helix, the console generation Microsoft has said will follow the Series X and S.", "card_text": "Micron expects demand to outrun supply into 2028", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "SpazioGames (5 October 2026)", "link": "https://www.spaziogames.it/notizie/xbox-project-helix-il-prezzo-ha-un-nuovo-ostacolo", "source_slug": "spaziogames" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "KB Securities expects Samsung Electronics' high-bandwidth memory prices to more than double in 2027 as the industry moves to HBM4 and tight DRAM supply gives the memory makers room to raise contract prices.", "card_text": "Samsung's HBM prices are tipped to more than double", "year": "2026", "market": "KR", "source": "Korea Herald, on KB Securities (7 October 2026)", "link": "https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10895833", "source_slug": "korea-herald" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Samsung estimates its third-quarter operating profit at 107.4 trillion won, which would make it the first South Korean company to pass 100 trillion won of operating profit in a quarter. ComputerBase reports it under the heading of memory prices.", "card_text": "Samsung posts a record Korean quarterly profit", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "ComputerBase (8 October 2026)", "link": "https://www.computerbase.de/news/wirtschaft/speicherpreise-samsungs-gewinn-koennte-um-fast-800-prozent-zulegen.99716/", "source_slug": "computerbase" }, { "section": "Timeline", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Gigabyte announces that two of its motherboard lines will support upcoming Intel processors on the LGA 1700 socket, which takes the older DDR4 memory and which Intel had dropped in 2024, with the chips expected in early 2027. AMD had already relaunched its DDR4-compatible AM4 platform in August 2026.", "card_text": "Intel and AMD revive old sockets so buyers can keep DDR4", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "The Verge, Stevie Bonifield (9 October 2026)", "link": "https://www.theverge.com/games/1009140/ram-shortage-intel-amd-ddr4-comeback", "source_slug": "the-verge" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo have all raised console prices in 2025 and 2026 and named memory costs among the reasons. Microsoft says it now sells consoles for less than they cost to make, which is the clearest sign that the chip price is not being absorbed.", "card_text": "The cost reaches the player", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Game Developer, on Omdia (23 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/how-a-surge-in-memory-prices-will-affect-the-games-industry", "source_slug": "game-developer" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Circana's Mat Piscatella says the US console market has not been in a more precarious position since the early 1980s. Through August 2026 Xbox hardware sales were down 33% and PlayStation 25%, at record average prices paid, and he says price sensitivity is becoming a real problem.", "card_text": "US buyers are walking away", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "Circana, Mat Piscatella, via Video Games Chronicle (10 October 2026)", "link": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/us-console-hardware-market-at-its-most-precarious-position-since-the-80s-says-circana/", "source_slug": "video-games-chronicle" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The Verge reports that RAM price rises have made PC upgrades hard enough that the processor makers are bringing back support for decade-old memory rather than expect buyers to move to the current kind.", "card_text": "Players are priced out of upgrading their own machines", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "The Verge, Stevie Bonifield (9 October 2026)", "link": "https://www.theverge.com/games/1009140/ram-shortage-intel-amd-ddr4-comeback", "source_slug": "the-verge" }, { "section": "Consequences", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "TrendForce reports that suppliers keep giving their advanced-process capacity to high-performance server products, and that PC DRAM supply could fall in 2027 as more capacity shifts to servers. Consoles and PCs are bidding for what is left over.", "card_text": "Games hardware is a low-priority customer", "year": "2026", "market": "Global", "source": "TrendForce (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260930-13258.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "The quarterly increase has fallen from about 93% in the first quarter of 2026 to a forecast 10% to 15% in the fourth. On that reading the shock has already happened and is working its way out, rather than building.", "card_text": "The rises are getting smaller every quarter", "year": "2026", "market": "Global", "source": "TrendForce (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260930-13258.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "TrendForce notes that several US cloud providers hold multi-year long-term agreements that restrict what suppliers may charge them, and that some suppliers' increases therefore lag the market average. Contract prices are negotiated, and nobody publishes what Sony, Microsoft or Nintendo actually pay.", "card_text": "The biggest buyers are partly shielded", "year": "2026", "market": "Global", "source": "TrendForce (9 July 2026)", "link": "https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260709-13140.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "Objections", "kind": "Argument", "claim": "Three of the four points on this chart are forecasts rather than counts. In February 2026 TrendForce raised its own first-quarter forecast to a record 90% to 95%, having previously published a lower one, so its numbers move a great deal between releases.", "card_text": "These are forecasts, and TrendForce revises them sharply", "year": "2026", "market": "Global", "source": "TrendForce (2 February 2026)", "link": "https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260202-12911.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Xbox has said its next generation starts with a console and extends to a family of devices, and SpazioGames reports the memory crisis adding pressure to its costs. Microsoft has published no date and no price. The price, when it comes, is the test of whether the shortage reached a whole console generation.", "card_text": "The price of Xbox Project Helix", "year": "2026", "market": "", "source": "SpazioGames (5 October 2026)", "link": "https://www.spaziogames.it/notizie/xbox-project-helix-il-prezzo-ha-un-nuovo-ostacolo", "source_slug": "spaziogames" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Early 2027, when TrendForce usually publishes its first-quarter figures. It will replace the fourth-quarter 2026 forecast on this chart with a count, and give the first reading for 2027.", "card_text": "TrendForce's next contract price release", "year": "2027", "market": "Global", "source": "TrendForce (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260930-13258.html", "source_slug": "" }, { "section": "What to watch", "kind": "Event", "claim": "Through 2027, when TrendForce expects PC DRAM supply to decline as more capacity moves to server products, and a server memory shortage besides. A fall in supply to PC makers would reach graphics cards and handheld PCs before it reached consoles.", "card_text": "Whether PC memory supply falls in 2027", "year": "2027", "market": "Global", "source": "TrendForce (30 September 2026)", "link": "https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260930-13258.html", "source_slug": "" } ] } ]